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National pupil projections: July 2012
National projections for the number of pupils in schools by type of school and age group.
Reference Id: OSR15/2012
Publication type: Statistical Release
Publication data: Pre-release access data
Release date: 26 July 2012
Coverage status: Final
Publication status: Published
Findings presented in this statistic release update those published in January 2012 (OSR 02/2012) using the latest actual pupil numbers from the 2012 school census and the mid-2010 based national population projections from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This is an official statistics publication. The statistics are presented as the latest available findings and have been released to help planning, to study trends and to inform a variety of programmes and initiatives.
This release presents the Department for Education’s main national-level pupil projections. The statistical release on school capacity 2010/11 was published on 10 January 2012 (OSR01/2012) and included local authorities’ own forecasts of future pupil numbers, based on local-level information, such as inter-authority migration of pupils.
The national pupil projections presented in the current release are produced within the Department for Education, at a national level only. They are based on the latest national population projections from the ONS and cover a longer time period (up to 2020) than the school capacity release (OSR01/2012).
Differences in the methodologies used by individual local authorities for pupil number forecasts mean that the aggregated totals in ‘School capacity 2010/11’ will differ from the national-level projections presented here, although the trends are broadly similar.
- Overall pupil numbers (aged up to and including 15) in state-funded schools began to increase in 2011 and are projected to continue rising.
- Numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools started increasing in 2010 and are projected to continue rising. By 2020, numbers are projected to be 18% higher than in 2012, reaching levels last seen in the 1970s.
- Between 2012 and 2015, pupil numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools are projected to increase by 8%.
- State-funded secondary pupil numbers aged up to and including 15 have been declining since 2004 and are projected to continue to decline until 2015, after which the increases in primary pupil numbers will start to flow through.
- By 2015, the number of state-funded secondary pupils aged up to and including 15 is projected to be 4% lower than in 2012.
- By 2015, all regions in England are projected to have an increase in their primary aged population (aged 5 to 10) compared with 2010. This ranges from around 9% in the north-east and south-west to 18% in London.
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