Official Statistics

National pupil projections: July 2011 update

National projections for the number of pupils in schools by type of school and age group.

Documents

Main text: OSR12/2011

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Main tables: OSR12/2011

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Additional tables: OSR12/2011

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Underlying data: OSR12/2011

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Pre-release access list: OSR12/2011

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Details

Reference Id: OSR12/2011

Publication Type: Statistical Release

Publication data: Underlying Statistical data

Region: England

Release Date: 28 July 2011

Coverage status: Final/Provisional

Publication Status: Published

Findings presented here update those published in December 2010 (OSR 31/2010), using the latest actual pupil numbers from the 2011 school census and mid-2010 population estimates from the office for national statistics (ONS). The pupil projections continue to make use of the mid-2008 based population projections from ONS, but also use the latest information on the number of live birth registrations in England in 2009 and 2010.

This is an official statistics publication. The statistics are presented as the latest available findings and have been released to help planning, to study trends and to inform a variety of programmes and initiatives.

  • Overall pupil numbers (aged up to and including 15) in state-funded schools began to increase in 2011 and are projected to continue.
  • Numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools started increasing in 2010 and are expected to continue rising. By 2017, numbers are projected to reach levels last seen in the late 1970s.
  • By 2015, pupil numbers in maintained nursery and state-funded primary schools are projected to increase by 9%. The number of pupils aged 5 to 6 will increase by 10%. For pupils aged 7 to 10, an 8% increase is projected over the same period.
  • State-funded secondary school rolls of pupils aged up to and including 15 have been in decline since 2004 and are expected to decline further until around 2016, when the increases in primary pupil numbers will start to flow through.
  • By 2015, state-funded secondary pupil numbers aged up to and including 15 are expected to be 5% lower than in 2011.
  • If net migration is assumed to be zero when projecting the population of England, around 17,500 fewer pupils aged 5 to 15 (0.3%) are projected to be in state-funded schools in 2015.

Pupil Projections Team
0207 783 8616

pupilpopulation.projections@education.gov.uk

Published 28 July 2011