Modern slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, September 2026
Published 8 October 2026
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This statistical bulletin provides a summary of the latest statistics on cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as of 30 September 2026.
Comprehensive data on National Referral Mechanism (NRM) referrals and decisions are published by the Home Office quarterly and annually. The latest quarterly release was published on 24 September 2026.
The data published here has been extracted from live operational databases. It is therefore provisional and may differ from other statistics published subsequently.
The methodology used to calculate the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision has been revised to provide a more accurate and complete figure. Consequently, these figures are not comparable with those published in bulletins prior to August 2026. More information can be found in the Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, year to June 2026 bulletin.
1. Cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the HO on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds (RG) and conclusive grounds (CG). Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision may be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery.
The Government committed to eradicate a backlog of cases awaiting a CG decision by December 2026. The number of cases awaiting a CG decision reached its highest level at the beginning of 2023 (see Figure 1). By the end of December 2025, this figure had reduced to less than a third of its peak level, although it has increased slightly since April 2026.
The number of cases awaiting a CG decision is increasingly expected to reflect a frictional work-in-progress caseload, rather than an accumulation of older cases. Consequently, the number of cases awaiting a CG decision is likely to vary over time depending on referral volumes and decision-making throughput, leading to small fluctuations from month to month.
Figure 1: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA, IECA
Figure 1 shows that, as of 30 September 2026, there were 6,277 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision; while this is a 6% increase compared to 31 August 2026 (5,928), it represents an 80% decrease from the peak of 31,101 cases recorded at the end of January 2023. Of the total number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, 6,016 (96%) were awaiting a first-time decision and 261 (4%) had been reopened following a reconsideration request.
There were 5,524 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision following referral to the Single Competent Authority (SCA); a 6% increase compared to 31 August 2026 (5,233), and a 78% decrease from the peak of 24,640 SCA cases recorded at the end of December 2022. Of the total number of SCA cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, 5,396 (98%) were awaiting a first-time decision and 128 (2%) had been reopened following a reconsideration request.
There were 753 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision following referral to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA); an 8% increase compared to 31 August 2026 (695), and an 89% decrease from the peak of 6,578 IECA cases recorded at the end of February 2023. Of the total number of IECA cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, 620 (82%) were awaiting a first-time decision and 133 (18%) had been reopened following a reconsideration request.
2. Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Timeliness of decisions is now measured by the average (median) time cases have been awaiting a conclusive grounds decision once a reasonable grounds decision has been issued. The measure excludes reconsideration requests. For more information, please see the end of year summary 2025.
Figure 2: Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA, IECA
Figure 2 shows that, as of 30 September 2026, the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision was 65 days, a decrease of 4% (3 days) when compared to the average of 68 days on 31 August 2026.
The average (median) age of SCA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 65 days, a decrease of 3% (2 days) when compared to the average of 67 days on 31 August 2026.
The average (median) age of IECA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 64 days, a decrease of 12% (9 days) when compared to the average of 73 days on 31 August 2026.