Official Statistics

Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, Quarter 3 2023 – July to September

Updated 3 November 2023

This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) process from 1 July to 30 September 2023 (quarter 3). Please refer to the Modern Slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, Quarter 3 2023 – July to September: data tables published alongside this bulletin for additional data. Raw data related to referrals from 2014 onwards is available from the UK Data Service. Future release dates for these statistics are published in the Government statistics release calendar.

This publication includes an annex with analysis on the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery.

Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Analyst: Stuart Prince

1. Key results

• 4,138 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office from July to September 2023, representing a 4% increase compared to the preceding quarter (3,995) and a 10% decrease from July to September 2022 (4,579)
• 82% (3,404) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration and 18% (734) to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• the most common nationalities referred this quarter were UK, Albanian and Vietnamese
• 3,745 reasonable grounds and 2,390 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 52% of reasonable grounds and 65% of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the Home Office received 1,317 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process, the second highest since the DtN began in 2015

Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by competent authority

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. The IECA took on referrals from November 2021 onwards.

2. Introduction

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK who come to the attention of authorised first responder organisations are referred to the NRM.

Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities, specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 and over) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children 17 and under need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office when they come across potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the Home Office via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds:

• reasonable grounds
• conclusive grounds

Before 30 January 2023, the reasonable grounds test was whether the decision maker suspects but cannot prove that the individual is a victim of modern slavery. From 30 January 2023, that test was amended so that the decision maker must agree there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. During this reporting period, from 10 July 2023, the test was amended, such that the test is an objective one, whereby the decision maker must agree with the statement that there are “reasonable grounds to believe that a person is a victim of modern slavery”. This takes into account the victim’s account and any other relevant information that supports or undermines it, and considers whether it is reasonable to expect supporting information to be available.

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM. These criteria may be based on either grounds of public order, bad faith, or if the individual has already received a support period in the NRM. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision. Public order disqualifications are currently not being made. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery.

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision will be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Currently, adults with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to at least a further 45 days of support, whilst those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as the individual exits the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the Home Office decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The SCA was launched in April 2019 and the IECA was created in November 2021. Both competent authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both competent authorities.

In June 2021, the Home Office launched a pilot programme, across 10 successful sites, to test alternative models of decision-making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. To enable further testing, 10 additional pilot sites were launched in early 2023. The Home Office are working closely with local authorities and stakeholders to monitor the pilot and continue to assess next steps. Decisions made by pilot areas, which are then issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for the bulletin. Statistics on the devolved decision-making pilot for children can be found in the annex. See further information regarding the pilots.

3. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

3.1 Number of referrals by age group

From July to September 2023, the NRM received 4,138 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 4% increase in referrals compared to the preceding quarter (3,995) and a 10% decrease from July to September 2022 (4,579).

Of all referrals this quarter, 49% (2,025) were potential victims claiming exploitation as adults (compared to 51% in the preceding quarter), whilst 45% (1,857) claimed exploitation as children (compared to 44% in the preceding quarter) (figure 2). The age group at exploitation was unknown in 6% of cases (256).

Figure 2: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by age group of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. Excludes referrals where the age group at exploitation is unknown.

3.2 Location of exploitation

Overall, 49% (2,038) of potential victims claimed exploitation in the UK only, matching the proportion of the previous quarter, and 39% (1,619) claimed exploitation overseas only, compared to 37% from April to June 2023 (data table 3; figure 3). The number of referrals for those claiming exploitation in the UK only have generally followed an upward trend since 2015. After falling since a record high from July to September 2022, the number of referrals reporting overseas only exploitation has risen this quarter.

Figure 3: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by location of exploitation

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.

3.3 Referrals by gender and exploitation type

Overall, of the 4,138 potential victims referred in this quarter, 76% (3,133) were male and 24% (1,001) were female. The number of female potential victims rose to their second highest number for a quarter since the NRM began. The proportion of male referrals received in each year has increased annually since the NRM began.

For adult potential victims, 73% (1,469) were male and 27% (555) were female; whilst for child potential victims, 79% (1,472) were male and 21% (382) were female (data table 4).

Figure 4: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age group, July to September 2023

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. First responders can enter data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field; for statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
2. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table 4.

Overall, potential victims were most commonly referred for labour exploitation only, which accounted for 29% (1,185) of all referrals. For adult potential victims, labour exploitation was most commonly reported (35%; 713), whereas child potential victims were most often referred for criminal exploitation (39%; 722) (data table 4). See further information on types of exploitation.

From July to September 2023, 209 county lines referrals were flagged, accounting for 5% of all referrals received (data table 15). The majority (74%; 154) of these referrals were for male children.

County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines. Throughout 2020, a rapid increase in the identification of ‘county lines’ cases partially drove the increase in referrals for children within the criminal exploitation category. In 2021, cases flagged as county lines remained at this high level, averaging over 500 referrals a quarter. Whilst 2022 saw an average of over 550 referrals each quarter flagged, they rose at a lower rate compared to all referrals from the previous year.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age group at exploitation and gender

Source SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to October 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

3.4 Referrals by nationality

There were 195 nationalities represented by referrals this quarter, which includes dual nationals as separate categories. The most common nationality referred was UK, which accounted for 25% (1,034) of all potential victims (compared to 24% from April to June 2023). Referrals for UK nationals have generally grown since July to September 2021 and have surpassed Albanian nationals for the first time since October to December 2021. Albanian was the second most commonly referred nationality (20%; 808) and the third was Vietnamese (8%; 318) (data table 5).

The majority (79%; 812) of UK nationals were child potential victims; whilst for Albanian nationals, most (73%; 591) were adult potential victims. For Vietnamese nationals, 62% (197) were adult potential victims and 30% (94) were child potential victims (figure 6). Potential victims may have no recorded age at exploitation, so are grouped as ‘not specified or unknown’ in the data tables.

Please note, a change to data recording from 1 October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, by age group at exploitation, July to September 2023

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.
2. There are separate categories for dual-nationals.

3.5 Referrals by location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the responsible geographic police force for investigation based on the information provided on the referral form and transfers the referral. Transfers between police forces can take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.

As in previous quarters, most (89%; 3,701) of the NRM referrals were sent to police forces in England, with 5% (204) to Police Scotland, 3% (123) to Welsh police forces and 3% (109) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 3).

3.6 First responders

From July to September 2023, 48% (1,995) of the referrals came from government agencies, compared to 49% in the previous quarter. Of these referrals, 31% (616) came from Home Office Immigration Enforcement, compared to 33% from April to June 2023, whilst the majority came from UK Visas and Immigration (66%; 1,316) (data table 11; figure 7). NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 5% (210) of referrals (data table 12). Police forces and Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCUs) accounted for 23% (970) of NRM referrals this quarter, matching the proportion of the previous quarter (data table 13). Local authorities accounted for 23% (963) of referrals, mostly for child potential victims (data table 14).

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types, July to September 2023

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at exploitation.

4. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

4.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

From July to September 2023, 3,745 reasonable grounds decisions were issued, with 52% being positive. More specifically, the SCA issued 2,728 decisions and the IECA issued 1,017 decisions; 59% (1,600) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA were positive and 35% (358) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the IECA were positive (data tables 17 and 18).

The proportion of positive decisions had remained relatively stable in recent years, with around 9 out of every 10 referrals receiving a positive decision. However, from 30 January 2023, the threshold for a positive reasonable grounds decision was updated, which led to a reduction in the proportion of positive decisions issued. On 10 July 2023, the threshold was revised once more, and for further information see the published guidance.

Of the 3,745 reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 44% for adult and 69% for child potential victims (data table 16).

Figure 8: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to reasonable grounds decisions made from July to September 2023 across the competent authorities was 47 days, compared to 21 days from April to June 2023 (data table 19). For reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 56 days, and the IECA took an average of 24 days (data tables 20 and 21, respectively).

Average wait times for reasonable grounds decisions increased following the change in guidance for such decisions since 30 January 2023 (data table 19). This is likely because the change in guidance required decision makers to have regard to objective factors, and typically a positive decision should not have been issued without supporting evidence or information in addition to a potential victim’s account. Competent authorities therefore, in most cases, had needed to take additional action to request information demonstrating objective factors in order to make a decision.

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a reasonable grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

4.2 Disqualifications

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests could be made by the Home Office for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM (either on the basis of bad faith, public order or given the person would benefit from multiple recovery periods). Public order disqualifications are currently not being made. From July to September 2023, there were 96 disqualification requests made. All of the requests this quarter were on grounds of public order (data table 22).

Upon the individual receiving notice of a disqualification request, there is a period of 10 working days for evidence to be sent to competent authorities to consider while making their decision on whether to disqualify. The expectation is that a disqualification decision will be made as close as possible to a positive reasonable grounds decision. From July to September 2023, there were 80 confirmed disqualifications. All of those confirmed this quarter were on grounds of public order (data table 25). These may be from disqualification requests made prior to this quarter.

4.3 Conclusive grounds decisions

From July to September 2023, 2,390 conclusive grounds decisions were issued, compared to 2,069 from April to June 2023 and 1,508 from July to September 2022. The number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter is the highest since the NRM began, following the increasing trend since the early months of 2021 due to the recruitment of additional decision makers by the competent authorities. For those issued this quarter, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions overall was 65%. More specifically, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions was 58% for adult and 76% for child potential victims (data table 28).

Of the 2,390 decisions issued this quarter, 1,963 were issued by the SCA and 427 by the IECA (data tables 29 and 30); 73% (1,424) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA were positive and 29% (125) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the IECA were positive.

Figure 9: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions made from July to September 2023 across the competent authorities was 530 days, compared to 451 days from April to June 2023 (data table 31). For conclusive grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 585 days, and the IECA took an average of 510 days (data tables 32 and 33, respectively).

It is important to note that decision-making times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

4.4 Reconsiderations

Decisions may be reconsidered after being issued by the competent authorities. This could be if additional evidence becomes available that would be material to the outcome of a case, or there are specific concerns that a decision has not been made in line with published guidance. For more information, see the published guidance.

From July to September 2023, there were 314 reconsideration requests made to the competent authorities. Of these, 260 were for reasonable grounds decisions, 53 were for conclusive grounds decisions and 1 was for a disqualification decision (data table 34).

From July to September 2023, 51% (134) of reasonable grounds decisions which were reconsidered received a positive outcome. For conclusive grounds decisions, 67% (20) were positive, and there were no disqualification decisions made (data table 37). These outcomes may be from reconsideration requests made in previous quarters.

Both reconsideration requests and outcomes refer to the most recent instance where the competent authority has agreed to reconsider at each decision stage for an individual. Hence, an individual will only be shown to have a maximum of one reasonable grounds request and outcome, and one conclusive grounds or disqualification request and outcome. Reconsideration requests may also be for positive or hybrid decisions, which are included in these statistics. In a small number of cases, reconsideration data contains inaccurately recorded fields, so apply caution when using. For more information, see the ‘Further information’ section.

5. Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the Home Office via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders do not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

From July to September 2023, the Home Office received 1,317 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (data table 40; figure 10), compared to 1,148 from April to June 2023. The number from July to September 2023 is the second highest ever recorded. Of these:

• the most referred nationalities were Sudanese (203; 15%), Eritrean (161; 12%) and Albanian (129; 10%) (data table 41)
• the most referred exploitation types were labour (540; 41%), not recorded or unknown (282; 21%) and sexual (206; 16%) (data table 42)
• in terms of first responders, most DtN reports were submitted by Home Office - UK Visas and Immigration UKVI (787; 60%), Home Office - Immigration Enforcement IE (110; 8%) and Metropolitan Police Service (93; 7%) (data table 43)

Figure 10: Number of quarterly DtN referrals

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

6. What’s new?

As of this publication, there have been new additions to the bulletin and associated data tables. Statistics on the number of reconsideration requests for decisions have been included, as well as those on reconsideration outcomes, which can be found in section 4.4: Reconsiderations.

7. Further information

Quality information

All percentages are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

It is important to note that the statistics presented in this publication relate to the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred to the NRM or via the DtN process.

The National Crime Agency (NCA) previously published NRM statistics prior to transferring NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, this data is now designated as official statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

These statistics are based on the situation as at 9 October 2023, when an extract was taken from the live case management system. This system receives referrals and stores information about each case, and decision makers from the competent authorities record further information, such as on decisions. The figures may differ from previous or future reports as new information comes to light and cases update accordingly.

In a small number of cases, reconsideration data contains inaccurately recorded fields. This includes a fraction of cases having an incorrect latest decision date recorded. Moreover, reconsideration requests which had no date received recorded are excluded from these statistics. Additionally, where they have been identified, duplicate referrals which have triggered reconsiderations have been excluded, though some may not have been identified and could still feature in the data. As such, reconsideration data should be used with caution and may be subject to revision.

Data tables for further analysis are online alongside this bulletin.

This statistical bulletin has been produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis & Insight Directorate under the Home Office’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers Home Office policy on revisions and other matters. The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all Home Office National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Changes to data table formatting

As of the publication for July to September 2021, several of the data tables published alongside this bulletin have been reformatted to reduce the number of tables whilst still providing the same data. Table 7 (number of NRM referrals by UK country of responsible police force and age group) which was provided in previous updates has been removed as this information is available in table 3. Tables 16 to 26 provided in previous updates (breaking down referrals received by police forces from England, Northern Ireland, Wales and Scotland by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) have been removed. This information is now available in tables 4 to 9.

As of the publication for January to March 2022, this bulletin has included both the number of referrals and decisions split by the SCA and IECA. To reflect this, tables 15 and 16 (number of positive and negative NRM reasonable/conclusive grounds decisions made per quarter, by age group at exploitation) in previous releases have been split into an additional 2 tables each for SCA and IECA decisions. Reasonable grounds decision breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 16 to 18, whilst conclusive grounds breakdowns are provided as tables 28 to 30.

As of the publication for April to June 2022, the average time between referrals and conclusive grounds decisions has been split by the SCA and IECA. Due to this, table 21 (average number of days taken to make conclusive grounds decisions) in past releases has been split into an additional 2 tables for SCA and IECA times. Timeliness breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 31 to 33.

As of the publication for October to December 2022, data table 1 (number of NRM referrals per quarter, by age group at exploitation and location of exploitation) in past releases has been split into tables 1 and 2 to more clearly show referrals split by competent authority.

Furthermore, from the publication for October to December 2022, several changes to formatting have been made to improve accessibility. These include adding consistent worksheet titles, adding a notes worksheet and reducing the use of merged cells.

As of the publication for April to June 2023, this bulletin has included statistics on the average time between referrals and reasonable grounds decisions. To reflect this, additional tables have been provided to show overall average time to reasonable grounds decision (table 19), as well as split by the SCA and IECA (tables 20 and 21 respectively).

Moreover, from the publication for April to June 2023, statistics on disqualification requests and confirmed disqualifications have been added to the bulletin. Due to this, tables 22 to 24 have been added for disqualification requests, and tables 25 to 27 have been added for confirmed disqualifications.

As of the publication for July to September 2023, this bulletin has included statistics on the number of reconsideration requests and outcomes. To reflect this, new tables have been provided to show reconsideration requests (tables 34 to 36) and outcomes (tables 37 to 39).

Changes to recording of exploitation types

Prior to 1 October 2019, potential victims of modern slavery were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into 5 distinct categories:

• labour
• sexual
• domestic servitude
• organ harvesting
• unknown exploitation

Following changes to the way NRM data is collected, recording of exploitation types has changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. As a result, for referrals received from 1 October 2019, criminal exploitation is separate to labour exploitation. In addition, potential victims can also be recorded as experiencing multiple exploitation types, so apply caution when comparing exploitation type statistics from October 2019 with previous quarters, as the primary exploitation type is unknown. Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a distinct category on the online form that first responders use when submitting a referral; instead, they can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. For statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.

Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force

Police force data provided in associated reference tables is based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force. Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. The updated statistics will reflect this. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

• the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
• the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

Other related publications

Latest and previous NRM and DtN statistical releases can be found in the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

Raw NRM data used for NRM and DtN statistical releases is published on UK Data Service.

For statistics on the number of small boat arrivals with NRM referrals, see the Irregular migration to the UK statistics collection.

Research on modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats was published in March 2023.

Ad-hoc analysis on modern slavery referrals from asylum, small boats and detention cohorts was published in May 2023.

Statistics and analysis of the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery can be found in an annex to this publication.

The Office for National Statistics publish a summary of data sources for modern slavery in the UK, as well as those specifically for child victims.

Feedback and enquiries

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