Official Statistics

Annex: analysis of the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery

Updated 3 November 2023

1. Introduction

As part of a wider National Referral Mechanism (NRM) reform activity, the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery aims to test devolving the responsibility to make NRM decisions from the Home Office to Local Authorities. This approach enables decisions about whether a child is a victim of modern slavery to be made by those involved in their care, and ensures the decisions made are closely aligned with the provision of local, needs-based support and any law enforcement response.

In June 2021, the Home Office launched the pilot in 10 sites. In the pilot, following training and assurance provided by the Single Competent Authority (SCA), decisions for children aged 17 and under (who are more than 100 days away from being aged 18) are made by those relevant Local Authorities rather than the Home Office. To enable further testing, 10 additional pilot sites were launched in early 2023. The pilot is now operating in 20 pilot sites, covering 30 Local Authorities across England, Scotland and Wales. This analysis provides a comparison of children referred to the NRM, where decision-making is devolved to Local Authorities, with those where decisions have been made centrally by the Home Office.

Further information regarding the pilot programme can be found in the guidance.

This annex is accompanied by the ‘Annex: analysis of the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery: data tables’.

Figure 1: Pilot site areas by phase of expansion

Notes:

1. Phase 1 of the pilot began in June 2021 and phase 2 began between February and April 2023.

Table 1: Pilot site areas, country and phase of expansion

Location	Site	Phase
England	Hull City Council	1
England	London Borough of Barking and Dagenham	1
England	London Borough of Islington and London Borough of Camden	1
England	North Lincolnshire and North East Lincolnshire	1
England	North Yorkshire Council and the City of York	1
England	Royal Borough of Kensington and Chelsea and the Borough of Westminster	1
England	Solihull Metropolitan Borough Council	1
Scotland	Glasgow City Council	1
Wales	Cardiff Council	1
Wales	Newport City Council and Torfaen, Blaenau Gwent, Monmouth and Caerphilly	1
England	Croydon Council	2
England	East Sussex County Council and Brighton and Hove City Council	2
England	Enfield Council	2
England	Hampshire County Council	2
England	London Borough of Bexley	2
England	London Borough of Lewisham	2
England	London Borough of Redbridge	2
England	Oxfordshire County Council	2
England	Warwickshire County Council	2
England	Wiltshire Council and Swindon Metropolitan Borough Council	2

2. Referrals

2.1 Overall

Between June 2021 and September 2023, there were 12,485 children referred to the NRM who were aged 17 and under. Of those, 91% (11,385) were more than 100 days away from being aged 18 upon referral. Of those, 12% (1,386) had their safeguarding responsibility fall to a Local Authority within the pilot sites (herein called pilot children), and 88% (9,999) did not (herein called non-pilot children) (data table A1; figure 2).

Figure 2: Quarterly NRM referrals for pilot and non-pilot children

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. The pilot began in June 2021 (hence the lower volumes for quarter 2, 2021) with 10 pilot site areas, which was doubled to 20 between February to April 2023.
2. Non-pilot children are those referred from the date the pilot started who were more than 100 days away from being aged 18 upon referral.

2.2 Age at referral and unaccompanied asylum-seeking children

Of the pilot children referred to the NRM between June 2021 and September 2023, three-quarters (75%; 1,040) were aged between 15 and 17 years old at the time of referral. A further 24% (327) were aged between 11 and 14 years old, and the remaining 1% (19) were aged 10 or under (data table A2).

An Unaccompanied Asylum Seeking Child (UASC) is a person aged 17 and under who is applying for asylum, is separated from both parents, and is not being cared for by an adult who in law or by custom has responsibility to do so. Between June 2021 and September 2023, 23% (322) of pilot children referred to the NRM have been identified as UASC.

2.3 Gender and exploitation type

Overall, of pilot children referred between June 2021 and September 2023, around one-quarter were female (24%; 332) and just over three-quarters were male (76%; 1,053). For non-pilot children, the proportion of females (20%; 1,981) and males (80%; 8,003) are similar (data table A5).

Between June 2021 and September 2023, criminal exploitation was the most commonly reported exploitation type for pilot children referred to the NRM (54%; 745). For non-pilot children referred in this period, criminal exploitation was also most commonly cited (51%; 5,050) (data table A6).

More specifically for males, pilot children most commonly claimed criminal exploitation (66%; 695) similar to non-pilot children (59%; 4,731). For females, pilot children most often reported sexual exploitation (48%; 159) as did non-pilot children (41%; 809) (Figure 3).

Figure 3: NRM referrals for pilot children by gender and exploitation type, June 2021 to September 2023

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table A6.
2. Does not include one referral where the gender is ‘Other’.

2.4 Nationality

The most common nationality of pilot children since the pilot began in June 2021 was UK, which accounted for two-thirds of potential victims (67%; 924). The majority of these were male (75%; 692) with 25% (231) being female (figure 4). The second most commonly referred nationality for pilot children was Sudanese (5%; 67) and the third was Romanian (4%; 55).

For non-pilot children, the most common nationality was similarly UK (56%; 5,610), though accounted for a lower proportion than for pilot children. Most of these were for males (78%; 4,393) with 21% (1,206) being female. The second most commonly referred nationality was Sudanese (5%; 538) and the third was Albanian (4%; 445) (data table A7).

Figure 4: NRM referrals for pilot children by gender and nationality, June 2021 to September 2023

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Less commonly referred nationalities are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table A7.
2. Does not include one referral where the gender is ‘Other’.

3. Decisions

The pilot programme provides extensive quality assurance and oversight of Local Authority decision-making. The SCA quality assures and issues decisions made by pilot sites.

3.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

Overall, between June 2021 and September 2023, 1,179 reasonable grounds decisions have been issued for pilot children. Of these, 93% (1,101) were positive. The proportion of positive decisions issued over the quarters for these cases has varied between 89% and 97% (data table A8; figure 5).

Over the same period, 8,942 reasonable grounds decisions have been issued for non-pilot children. Of these, 87% (7,765) were positive. The proportion of positive decisions issued for these cases has broadly fallen over the quarters, spanning between 69% and 98% (data table A8).

The test for a reasonable grounds decision changed from 30 January 2023, and was further amended from 10 July 2023. From this latter date, the test is objective whereby the decision maker must agree with the statement that there are “reasonable grounds to believe that a person is a victim of modern slavery”.

Figure 5: Quarterly NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions for pilot children

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the decision was issued for pilot children.

For pilot children, the average (median) time taken from referral to reasonable grounds decisions made between June 2021 and September 2023 was 37 days. For non-pilot children, the average time taken was 6 days (see data table A9 for a quarterly breakdown).

The average time to reasonable grounds decisions is longer for pilot children because the pilot operates on a different timescale, with guidance outlining that a reasonable grounds decision should be made no later than 45 days from the date the pilot area receives the referral. The longer decision-making timescale for reasonable grounds decisions in the pilot allows time for pre-panel information gathering and for the local multi-agency meeting to be organised. Reasonable grounds decision timescales are therefore not directly comparable.

It is important to note that Local Authorities are the primary service provider for safeguarding and supporting child victims.

3.2 Conclusive grounds decisions

Overall, between June 2021 and September 2023, 1,025 conclusive grounds decisions have been issued for pilot children, of which 86% (883) were positive. For these cases, the proportion of positive decisions issued over the quarters has varied between 79% and 97% (data table A10; figure 6).

For non-pilot children, there were 1,872 conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA over the same period, of which 89% (1,657) were positive. The proportion of positive decisions for non-pilot children has broadly decreased over the quarters, spanning between 80% and 100% (data table 10).

Figure 6: Quarterly NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions for pilot children

Source: SCA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the decision was issued for pilot children.

The average (median) time taken from referral to conclusive grounds decisions for pilot children made between June 2021 and September 2023 was 58 days. For non-pilot children, the average time taken was 256 days (see data table A11 for a quarterly breakdown).

The average time to conclusive grounds decisions for pilot children is much shorter, because the pilot has been designed to create shorter decision-making timescales from the point of referral to a final decision being made. Guidance outlines that a conclusive grounds decision must take place no later than 45 days after the reasonable grounds decision (a maximum of 90 days from when the referral was received by the pilot site). Moreover, a joint positive reasonable and conclusive grounds decision can be made at the same time and at the same meeting, if there is sufficient evidence to do so, bringing down the conclusive grounds decision-making timescale.

It is important to note that wait times presented here are for cases that received a conclusive grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Wait times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

4. Data and methodology

Data on pilot and non-pilot children (at age of referral) is taken from internal management information. This data was extracted on 9 October 2023.

The number of non-pilot children is calculated by using the age of a potential victim at the time of referral. This is quantified by using the date of birth and date the referral was received by the SCA. Children more than 100 days away from being aged 18 upon referral, who are not part of the pilot, are considered non-pilot children.

Statistics on decisions are based on referrals made from 14 June 2021. Not all referrals for pilot and non-pilot children would have had decisions at the date the data cut was taken.

5. Further information

For further information on the devolved decision-making pilot for children, see the published guidance.

Statistics on all potential victims referred to the NRM can be found in the statistics collection.

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