Recent changes to visa numbers in Home Office data
Published 24 November 2022
© Crown copyright 2022
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/immigration-statistics-year-ending-september-2022/recent-changes-to-visa-numbers-in-home-office-data
Back to ‘Immigration statistics, year ending September 2022’ content page.
This is not the latest release. View latest release.
1. Summary
There are a range of developments that are likely to have impacted visa numbers recently and which mean that the Home Office visa statistics at present, may include an element of uncertainty around the overall trends.
Global events such as the world recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and international events (war in Ukraine, Taliban takeover in Afghanistan and National Security Law in Hong Kong), along with policy changes introduced as part of the new Immigration system and the end of EU freedom of movement, have all had an impact on migration. As a result, we are seeing large increases in numbers of visas granted on some of the most commonly used routes in the year ending September 2022, with large increases for sponsored study, non-temporary work and dependants of students and workers, as well as on the new humanitarian routes (for people from Ukraine and Afghanistan, and the BN(O) visa route from Hong Kong).
Changes to travel plans caused by the emergence from the pandemic will have led to a higher number of visas being recorded in the most recent period. The reopening of travel opportunities has led to many people changing travel plans, whether for work, study or visits, in some cases recommencing, or bringing forward journeys they had planned during the pandemic. We saw evidence of this in the spike in passport applications in the UK earlier this year and the strong recovery in air travel shown in the previous Home Office statistical reports on passenger air arrivals. Analysis of Home Office data also suggests that some applications for visas will have been delayed, and some others where travel could not take place repeated, and these may also have caused a higher number to be concentrated in the year ending September 2022.
The end of free movement is likely to have had an impact on EU migration, and in turn non-EU migrants may fill some of the work and study places previously taken by EU migrants. Other policy changes such as the expansion of Skilled Work and Health and Care routes, seasonal work and the Graduate route will have increased visa numbers.
It is difficult to unpick the extent to which each of these factors is contributing to the current increase in both visa applications and grants, and the longer-term intentions of any travellers, whether on temporary or more permanent visas. It may take some time before the effects from the pandemic are seen to balance out in the data.
2. Visa trends since the pandemic
Figure 1: Visa grants (non-EU nationals) for the visa types that have seen the most notable increases over the past 2 years
Source: Entry clearance visa detailed dataset
Notes:
- To ensure the timeseries is comparable, EU nationals are excluded from the chart as they did not require visas to work or study in the UK prior to the end of the transition period on 1 January 2021. A small number of EU nationals (as family members) may have been issued BN(O) or Ukraine scheme visas and these are included in the chart.
There is evidence to suggest that the pandemic caused some students to delay travel before coming to the UK. Similar effects may be seen to a lesser degree for other visa categories, and although our analysis is unable to address these, there will have been similar effects on the plans of British citizens and migrants with a settled status (such as those on the EU Settlement Scheme) to travel abroad or return home to the UK.
3. Student travel patterns during the pandemic
An analysis of Home Office data suggests that less than 1% of student visas with a start date from 2017 to 2019, prior to the pandemic, went unused but this proportion of unused visas grew during the pandemic, and around 7% (14,000) of visas with a start date in 2020 and 3% (13,000) for 2021 were unused. This implies that around 27,000 of those granted visas did not (or could not) come to the UK during the pandemic.
There is also evidence that some post-pandemic visa grants may have been repeat applications by the same individual. Of the 14,000 students with an unused visa in 2020, 30% were granted another visa in 2021 – a much higher proportion than 2018, when just 11% of those with unused visas were granted again the following year.
Not all visas issued were used to travel to the UK. Our analysis suggests that only about 41% of those issued a subsequent (for example, second) visa in the following year actually used it. This also suggests a small number of students who intended to come to the UK during 2020 did not (or could not) subsequently come in 2021. It remains to be seen if more of those who were issued with a visa but did not use it arrive in 2022, as global travel continues to return to ‘normality’.
Figure 2: Sponsored study grants trends, year ending June 2022
Source: Entry clearance visa detailed dataset
There is some indication of students delaying their arrival, with a greater proportion potentially being recorded in the year ending September 2022 than would normally be the case in a more typical academic cycle. The above chart indicates the peak in student applications moving slightly later (from August to September) and this could tip the balance for annual estimates based on the year ending September, causing slightly more of the following year’s student group to be recorded in the year ending September 2022. The effect will be impossible to isolate but should become clearer if numbers re-balance over the coming years.
4. Evidence from higher education data on migrant student trends
HESA data is an important measure of foreign students, although they are currently only published in retrospect so cannot provide an indication of current numbers. The latest available HESA data suggests that the total volume of international students studying in the UK grew 10% during the pandemic, between the academic years 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021, from around 550,000 to 605,000 international students studying in the UK per year, of whom around 155,000 were EU nationals and 450,000 were non-EU nationals.
Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, HESA data showed steady growth year-on-year for non-UK student enrolments, primarily from non-EU nationals who increased from 315,000 for the 2016 to 2017 academic year to 410,000 (+31%) for the 2019 to 2020 academic year. Visa data shows a similar steady growth for non-EU students over this period, increasing from 195,000 grants in the year ending September 2016, to 260,000 (+34%) in the year ending September 2019. However, whilst HESA data continued to show growth for non-EU students for the 2020 to 2021 year to 450,000 (+11% compared to previous year), sponsored study visa numbers declined (-39% for year ending September 2020 compared to the previous year), primarily because of COVID-19 restrictions. This could imply that students were enrolled on a course and either did not then travel to the UK or were studying from overseas without the need for a visa. However, the degree to which this occurred is not clear.
In the year ending September 2021, sponsored study visas data shows a very large recovery, increasing by 141% compared to the previous year, and suggesting a 46% increase compared to the year ending September 2019 (pre-pandemic). This growth in recruitment of foreign students to UK Universities would be unprecedented. It may in part reflect changes in the timing and location of study in the past year. HESA data, only due to be published in January 2023, should indicate whether a similar level of growth was seen in actual student enrolments for the 2021 to 2022 academic year.
Table 1: Higher education student enrolments by domicile, academic year ending March 2017 to year ending March 2021
| Domicile | 2016/17 | 2017/18 | 2018/19 | 2019/20 | 2020/21 | 2021/22 | 2022/23 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU | 138,040 | 142,840 | 146,565 | 147,800 | 152,905 | Due Jan 23 | Not announced |
| Non-EU | 312,795 | 326,315 | 349,545 | 408,825 | 452,225 | Due Jan 23 | Not announced |
| Total Non-UK | 450,835 | 469,160 | 496,110 | 556,625 | 605,130 | Due Jan 23 | Not announced |
Source: Higher Education Student Data, HE student enrolments by domicile
Table 2: Sponsored study visas to the UK (main applicants), years ending September 2016 to September 2022
| YE Sep 16 | YE Sep 17 | YE Sep 18 | YE Sep 19 | YE Sep 20 | YE Sep 21 | YE Sep 22 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Applications | 203,612 | 218,652 | 232,087 | 265,602 | 173,552 | 383,390 | 481,146 |
| Grants | 194,575 | 211,509 | 226,919 | 261,512 | 158,824 | 382,661 | 476,389 |
Source: Entry clearance visa detailed dataset
5. Other changes in travel patterns
Over time, increases in temporary migration of longer than a year are likely to result in a proportionate increase in outflows as people leave the country as their visa expires. Home Office migrant journey statistics show that only a minority of students and skilled workers remain in the UK longer-term and seek to settle. Around 83% of those with a sponsored study visa and 73% of those on a work visa in 2016 did not hold valid leave 5 years later (most of whom will have left the UK). The introduction of the new Graduate route may attract more students to apply to study in the UK, with an intention to remain after their studies continue, but the numbers of visas issued under the graduate route extension (just under 60,000 in the year ending September 2022) are currently only a small proportion of the total number of applications for student visas.
6. Additional impacts from immigration policy changes
There will have been increases in visa numbers for work due to similar changes in policies, such as the introduction of the new Immigration system, including the Skilled Work and Health and Care routes.
Additional increases in foreign student numbers may come as a result of new relationships being developed with specific countries, or through the UK International Education Strategy.
At present it is not possible to disentangle the impact of the pandemic from wider policy changes. Monitoring Home Office visa and extensions data as well as higher education enrolment data from HESA will enable us to unpick some of this but only over the course of the coming year.
7. Further increases in visas linked to protection routes
In addition to policy changes, there have also been large numbers of people granted visas this year under the new humanitarian routes (such as Ukraine and Hong Kong BN(O) visas). It is not known whether the demand for humanitarian visas will continue at the same level as we have seen recently, but numbers in both the Ukrainian and BN(O) schemes have reduced sharply following the peaks that followed their launch, and so numbers over future quarters may be at much lower levels, albeit depending on world events.