Analysis of migrants use of the Graduate route
Published 14 May 2024
© Crown copyright 2024
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/analysis-of-migrants-use-of-the-graduate-route/analysis-of-migrants-use-of-the-graduate-route
1. Introduction
This report looks at the journeys of foreign nationals who came to study in the UK, with a particular focus on those entering and leaving the Graduate route. It looks at who is entering the Graduate route, what they do after their Graduate leave expires, and if they extended into other leave. Additionally, it includes early insights on their earnings and employment by linking Home Office visa records to HMRC earnings data.
This report uses data that underpins the Home Office migrant journey statistical publications. The next full update of the Migrant journey covering 2023 is due to be published on 23 May 2024.
The report seeks to complement the Migration Advisory Committee’s (MAC’s) rapid review of the Graduate route published on 14 May 2024.
The report defines a migrant journey as a series of grants of leave to an individual where each grant is no more than 12 months after the expiry of the previous grant. As such, the number of new journeys in a given year within the report will not match the total number of overseas visa grants in the same period as published in the Immigration system statistics.
Overview of the Graduate route
The Graduate route was introduced in July 2021 and allows foreign students who have successfully completed a UK bachelor’s degree, postgraduate degree or other eligible course to stay in the UK for at least 2 years. Graduate visa holders can work or look for work during this period and may switch to another immigration route at any point.
It is too early to say whether the behaviours of the early adopters of the scheme will be indicative of the behaviours of later cohorts. This also applies when looking at Graduate visa holders’ earnings.
2. The Graduate Journey
What are study visa holders doing after their studies?
The proportion of students granted further leave to remain in the UK following their studies more than tripled between 2019 and 2023, from 18% to 56%.
Over half (56%) the number of students who came to the end of their studies in 2023 had further leave to remain in the UK, mostly on the Graduate route (32%) and other work routes (18%).
Figure 1: Students who came to the end of their studies by subsequent leave category
Source: Migrant journey underlying datasets, Home Office
Notes:
- ‘Other work’ includes all work routes excluding the Graduate route. For example ‘Skilled Worker’ and ‘Skilled Worker - Health and Care’ visas.
- ‘Other leave’ includes all non-work routes.
- The numbers at the top of the bars are the total number of people leaving the student route in each year. This includes people whose leave came to end, and people who switched onto another route before their leave expired.
Figure 1 shows the proportion of students who remained in the UK after their studies by switching to another type of leave was between 15% and 20% in 2019 and 2020. This proportion has since increased reaching 52% in 2022 and 56% in 2023. In addition, the number of people leaving the student route increased in each year since 2019 (from 160,104 in 2019 to 350,365 in 2023), so both the number and proportion of students remaining in the UK beyond their studies has increased. While more students appear to be extending their stay by making use of the Graduate visa and other routes, we do not yet know if they will remain in the UK permanently, or whether they are just staying longer.
Before 2021, between 80% and 85% of students held no valid leave to remain in the UK following the expiry of their student leave. This proportion has fallen since 2020, reaching 44% in 2023. This period saw a number of different factors which may have affected the proportion of foreign students remaining in the UK, including the COVID-19 pandemic, the introduction of the Graduate route, and the ending of freedom of movement for EU nationals. It is difficult to unpick the extent to which these factors are impacting recent trends, however 2022 was the first year on record where more than half of student leavers were granted further leave.
Who is on the Graduate route?
The latest Immigration system statistics extensions data shows that 213,250 main applicants and 45,836 dependants were granted Graduate visas between its launch in July 2021 and the end of 2023.
Figure 2: Graduate route visas granted by year and applicant type
Source: Immigration system statistics; Extensions detailed datasets, table Exe_D01
The top 5 nationalities account for almost three-quarters (74%) of Graduate visas issued to main applicants with Indian nationals accounting for 42%.
Table 1: Top 5 nationalities granted Graduate visas (main applicants)
| Nationality | Graduate visa grants | % of all Graduate visas | % of Student visa expiries from 2021 to 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|
| All nationalities | 213,250 | 100% | 100% |
| India | 89,231 | 42% | 23% |
| Nigeria | 23,648 | 11% | 8% |
| China | 22,191 | 10% | 30% |
| Pakistan | 14,337 | 7% | 4% |
| United States |
7,493 | 4% | 4% |
Table 1 shows that Indian (42%), Nigerian (11%) and Chinese (10%) nationals accounted for two-thirds of those entering the Graduate route in 2023. Indian students were proportionally more likely to switch to the Graduate route, accounting for 42% of Graduate visa grants but only 23% of Student visa expiries between 2021 and 2023; while Chinese students were proportionally less likely, accounting for only 10% of Graduate visa grants but 30% of Student visa expiries.
Those entering the Graduate route tend to be in their mid-to-late 20s, with more than half (58%) being between the ages of 24 and 29. Slightly more (52%) of the 2023 graduate entrants were male than female (48%).
113,105 students switched to the Graduate route in 2023; 69% of these students had been studying for one year or less.
Figure 3: Graduate route entrants by length of study leave between 2021 and 2023
Source: Migrant Journey underlying datasets, Home Office
Notes:
- Length of study leave is the number of complete years of valid study leave held before switching to the Graduate route.
- The numbers at the top of the bars are the total number of Graduate route entrants in each year.
Figure 3 shows that more than two-thirds (69%) of people taking up the Graduate route in 2023 had been studying for one year or less, compared with 56% in 2022. This is slightly higher than for those extending onto non-Graduate routes, where 60% had studied for one year or less. This broadly aligns with the length of time students are studying in the UK more generally, with 66% of all students who came to the end of their studies in 2023 having studied for one year or less, up from 58% in 2022.
The increase in people switching within one year follows an increase in the number of one-year study visas being issued, which has more than doubled from 137,885 in 2019 to 298,383 in 2023.
For students who started their studies between 2011 and 2018, two-thirds (66%) held no leave to remain in the UK after 3 years. This fell to 61% for 2019, and 44% for the 2020 cohort who are the latest 3-year cohort. The numbers who hold no leave to remain are indicative of the proportion who should have left the UK at the point of analysis.
What do people do once their Graduate route leave ends?
25,469 people’s Graduate visas had expired by the end of 2023, with 63% switching to other routes.
The chart below presents what foreign students who had switched to the Graduate route did before their Graduate leave expired, indicated by their latest visa. However, it is too early to say whether the behaviours of early adopters of the scheme will be indicative of the behaviours of later cohorts.
Figure 4: Graduate visa expiries by subsequent category
Source: Migrant Journey underlying datasets, Home Office
Figure 4 shows that 63% of the 25,469 people whose Graduate visas had expired by the end of 2023 had switched to another route. Just under half (46%) had switched to a work route (33% extending into Skilled Worker, 9% into Skilled Worker - Health and Care, and 4% into other work routes). Smaller proportions had returned to study (7%) or switched to family (6%) or other routes (5%).
An additional 17,080 people had extended out of the Graduate route despite still holding valid leave at the end of 2023 with the majority (12,549) switching to work routes (with 8,485 into Skilled Worker, and 3,245 into Skilled Worker - Health and Care).
3. Graduate visa holder earnings
This section presents early findings on the earnings and employment of Graduate visa holders by linking Home Office visa records to HMRC’s Pay As You Earn (PAYE) Real Time Information (RTI) data.
Data is available from July 2021 (when the Graduate route was introduced) to March 2023. This means insights can be provided over one entire financial year, from April 2022 to March 2023. Findings over the whole period are provided where relevant and stated as such.
All figures and tables in this section relate to the PAYE reported gross earnings of main applicant Graduate visa holders who were aged between 18 and 65, whose visa was granted before the start of the period being looked at (and who had not switched onto any other visa type during this period).
Of the approximately 131,000 unique Graduate visa records extracted from Home Office case working systems that were granted between July 2021 and March 2023, 101,000 (77%) yielded a robust match to HMRC’s Migrant Worker Scan (MWS) database, allowing for the linking of these records to HMRC PAYE RTI data. A further 9,000 Graduate visas (7%) were partially matched but have been excluded from all analysis as their match was not deemed robust. Most of those who were not successfully matched to MWS are assumed to have never worked in the UK given that the reason they did not match is likely due to them not applying for a National Insurance number. However, there may be a small number of records that did not match due to differences in the information held by the Home Office and HMRC. These unmatched Graduate visa records are counted as unemployed within all figures reporting on proportions of Graduate visa holders in employment but are excluded from all analyses on earnings. See ‘About the data’ section for further details on methodology.
How many Graduate visa holders were in employment?
Of all Graduate visa holders in scope to earn across the whole financial year ending 2023, 73% of Graduate visa holders were in employment at some point during financial year ending 2023; however, of this 73%, the majority (63%) were not in employment for the full year.
Figure 5: Number of months Graduate visa holders worked during financial year ending 2023
Figure 5 shows the number of months in which Graduate visa holders worked during this period varied. This generally leaned towards longer spans, with 61% in employment for at least half of the financial year, and a further 27% consistently working throughout this period. Only 12% worked for less than 6 (but more than 0 months) out of the full 12 months, while 27% did not work at all. While figure 5 includes all Graduate visa holders in scope to earn across financial year ending 2023, this includes those who may have only recently graduated before this period and therefore had less time to seek employment.
How long did it take for Graduate visa holders to start earning?
Of all Graduate visa holders in scope to earn across the whole financial year ending 2023 who were in employment at some point in the financial year, 62% of Graduate visa holders were earning in the first month following their visa being granted.
One in ten (10%) started earning in the second month following their visa being granted and this proportion continues to decrease over subsequent months.
Figure 6: Month in which Graduate visa holders started earning following their visa being granted
Notes:
- A small number of Graduate visa holders first earned in months that were more than 12 months following the grant of their visa. These proportions each rounded to zero and have therefore not been shown in figure 6.
How did Graduate visa holder employment differ by demographic characteristics?
Of the top 5 nationalities granted Graduate visas, Nigerian nationals were most likely to have worked at least one month (86%).
Chinese nationals were least likely of the top 5 nationalities to have worked at least one month (60%) and for the full year (18%).
Graduate visa holders aged between 25 to 34 and 35 to 49 were more likely to work at least one month compared to those aged 18 to 24 (both 76% compared to 68%). There was no notable difference in the proportion of Graduate visa holders in employment across gender.
Table 2: Proportion of Graduate visa holders in employment during financial year ending 2023 by nationality
| Nationality (top 5 nationalities granted main applicant Graduate visas) | Earned in at least one month | Earned for the full year |
|---|---|---|
| All nationalities | 73% | 27% |
| China | 60% | 18% |
| India | 79% | 29% |
| Nigeria | 86% | 30% |
| Pakistan | 81% | 27% |
| United States of America | 72% | 30% |
| Other nationalities | 65% | 27% |
Notes:
- Proportions relate to the proportion of records where nationality was available in the data (excluding ‘all nationalities’ which relates to all available records).
How much did Graduate visa holders earn in each month?
Since the launch of the Graduate route in July 2021, the median monthly pay gradually rose from £1,227 to £1,937 in March 2023.
Figure 7: Median pay in each month from August 2021 to March 2023, where Graduate visa holders earned in the month
Notes:
- August 2021 represents the first full month of earnings for those granted the Graduate visa in July 2021. This time series looks at each month in isolation and does not track the earnings of the same cohort over time.
While not directly comparable to UK labour market statistics (see ‘About the data’ section for further information), this reflects the wider general trend of monthly median earning for the general UK population aged between 18 and 65 across the same period (Earnings and employment from Pay As You Earn Real Time Information). Graduate visa holders tended to earn slightly less compared to the general UK population (approximately £300 less as of March 23). However, caution is required when comparing due to variations in cohort composition relative to the general UK population (including factors such as age, region of employment and other characteristics).
How much did Graduate visa holders earn in financial year ending 2023?
The median annual earning for the 73% of Graduate visa holders who were in employment for at least one month in financial year ending 2023 was £17,815. Whereas, for the 27% who were in employment across the entire year, this was £26,460.
Figure 8: Annual Graduate visa holder employment earnings for financial year ending 2023 by earning band
Figure 8 shows that 41% of Graduate visa holders who earned in at least one month in financial year ending 2023 earned less than £15,000. 9% of those who earned for the full year earned less than £15,000. For those in employment across the entire year, just under half (46%) earned between £20,000 and £29,999.
How did annual Graduate visa holder earnings differ by demographic characteristics?
Of the top 5 nationalities granted Graduate visas, USA nationals who worked at least one month had a noticeably higher median annual earning during financial year ending 2023 (£21,135).
In comparison, those from Pakistan had a lower median annual earning (£14,402), as did those from China (£15,762). The differences between nationalities amongst those who were employed over the full year are less stark, although the pattern is broadly similar; median earnings for USA nationals sat above the overall level at £28,000, with earnings for Pakistan nationals sitting below the overall level at £24,955.
Graduate visa holders aged between 35 to 49 who worked at least one month had a higher median annual earning (£19,328) compared to those aged between 18 to 24 and 25 to 34 (£17,701 and £17,746 respectively). Men earned a median of £17,792 (£26,879 where employed over the full year) and women earned £17,856 (£25,988 where employed over the full year).
Table 3: Median annual earnings during financial year ending 2023 by nationality
| Nationality (top 5 nationalities granted main applicant Graduate visas) | Median annual earnings (where earned in at least one month) | Median annual earnings (where earned for the full year) |
|---|---|---|
| All nationalities | £17,815 | £26,460 |
| China | £15,762 | £26,894 |
| India | £17,120 | £25,465 |
| Nigeria | £17,868 | £25,812 |
| Pakistan | £14,402 | £24,955 |
| United States of America | £21,135 | £28,000 |
| Other nationalities | £19,346 | £27,674 |
Notes:
- Calculations relate to the records where nationality was available in the data set (excluding ‘all nationalities’ which relates to all available records).
What sectors do Graduate visa holders tend to work in?
Graduate visa holders were most likely to be employed within the administrative and support services sector (25%) followed by health and social work and professional, scientific and technical activities (16% and 14% respectively).
Of all Graduate visa holders in scope to earn across the whole financial year ending 2023 who were in employment at some point in the financial year (As categorised using UK Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes as defined by the Office for National Statistics (ONS)).
Figure 9: Proportion of Graduate visa holders in employment during financial year ending 2023, by sector
Notes:
- Sectors are based on the UK SIC codes, as defined by the ONS. These codes have been determined from both the Inter-Departmental Business Register (IDBR) and data from Companies House for each PAYE enterprise. Sector information is included where available in the data. ‘Other sectors’ contains remaining sectors with below 175 Graduate visa holders earning at some point in financial year ending 2023. Graduate visa holders may have worked in multiple sectors either concurrently across the financial year or even simultaneously.
Graduate visa holders were least likely to be employed in real estate (1%) and transportation and storage sectors (1%). A smaller proportion of Graduate visa holders worked in the administrative and support services sector for the full financial year (19%) compared to the proportion who were in employment in this sector for at least one month (25%). Compared to the other sectors, this relative proportion was notably larger, suggesting Graduate visa holders are more likely to have worked in this sector for a short period compared to other sectors.
Of the 5 largest sectors of Graduate visa holder employment, Nigerian nationals were the most likely to be working in the health and social work sector. 41% of Nigerian nationals were in employment in this sector for at least one month compared to 14% of Indian nationals, 11% of Pakistani nationals, 10% of USA nationals and 3% of Chinese nationals. Pakistani and Indian nationals were most likely to be employed in the administrative and support service activities sector (38% and 33% respectively). Chinese and USA nationals were most likely to be employed in professional, scientific and technical activities (21% of both).
How much do Graduate visa holders working in different sectors earn?
The sector with the highest annual earning for financial year ending 2023 was finance and insurance. The median earning was £34,846 for those who earned for the entire year and £27,879 for who earned in at least one month.
These annual earnings are substantially above the median annual earning for the full cohort (£26,460).
Figure 10: Median annual Graduate visa holder employment earnings for financial year ending 2023, by sector
Notes:
- Sectors are based on the UK SIC codes, as defined by the ONS. These codes have been determined from both the IDBR and data from Companies House for each PAYE enterprise. Sector information is included where available in the data. ‘Other sectors’ contains remaining sectors with below 175 Graduate visa holders earning at some point in financial year ending 2023. Graduate visa holders may have worked in multiple sectors either concurrently across the financial year or even simultaneously.
Figure 10 shows that the lowest median annual earning for those Graduate visa holders employed in in at least one month of the financial year ending 2023 was for the accommodation and food service activities sector (£12,805). The administrative and support services sector had the second lowest median annual earning of £14,438 for those who earned in at least one month. The health and social work sector (the second most common sector for Graduate visa holder employment as shown in figure 9) ranked comparatively higher (£16,559). However, those in the administrative and support services sector who worked for the full financial year still earned more than those in the health and social work sector who did the same (£25,550 compared to £24,242).
The gap between the median annual earnings of those working for the full year, compared to those who worked in at least one month, was notably wider for the accommodation and food service activities (£12,805 vs £21,852) and the administrative and support services sectors (£14,438 vs £25,550) compared to the health and social work sector (£16,559 vs £24,242). This suggests that those in these 2 sectors were more likely to be in part-year or seasonal employment compared to those in the health and social work sector.
4. About the data
Migrant journey data
The ‘Migrant journey: user guide’ provides further details on this topic including definitions used, how figures are compiled, data quality and issues arising from figures based on data sourced from an administrative database.
The analysis in this report is based on an earlier data extract than the one which will be used in the upcoming Migrant journey 2023 report. As extracts are taken from a live data-matching system, there may be differences between numbers included in this report and in the upcoming Migrant journey report.
Unless stated otherwise, figures refer to the number of people (main applicants only) whose sponsored study visas and Graduate route extension visas have been successfully matched. Therefore, these figures may not match visa totals published in the Immigration system statistics.
Earnings data
Earnings data used for this report comes from a range of Home Office case working systems. Data is extracted from the Initial Status Analysis (ISA) system comprising data from the Case Information Database (CID), the Central Reference System (CRS) and Atlas. This includes data on grant of entry clearance (visas issues) and extensions of stay within the UK.
This data is then matched against HMRC Real Time Information (RTI) for Pay As You Earn (PAYE) data using the available common identifiers.
Where a visa record had a National Insurance number (NINo), this was verified against the Migrant Worker Scan (MWS) – a list of individuals who successfully applied for a NINo through the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) post-16 registration process, or have had a NINo allocated to them as part of their visa granted by the Home Office – before linking to RTI. A record was deemed robust if it matched on at least 5 out of 6 of the following identifiers:
- date of birth
- surname
- forename
- nationality
- gender
- postcode
Where the visa record had no NINo, fuzzy matching to MWS to assign a NINo was done using the same variables. Two primary matching methods are employed:
- precision matching
- Levenshtein edit distance (LED)
Precision matching assesses specific variables from visa data against HMRC tax records. LED is used to match visa applicants with minor input errors in key fields, employing substitution, deletion, and replacement to compare strings. Matches where a NINo was not available were deemed robust if the record matched an MWS record on date of birth, surname, forename and at least 2 out of 3 of the following:
- postcode
- gender
- nationality
The visa records extracted for the purpose of matching to HMRC records in time to produce analyses for this report were extracted in a bespoke way for this data set. This means the number of records extracted may not necessarily reflect total figures presented in other published statistics for the immigration system.
These data and all figures produced from it are classified as ‘Official Statistics in Development’. This means statistics remain subject to further development and will have a wider degree of uncertainty. Please see ‘Official Statistics in Development’. New methods are being tested to improve quality and provide better coverage across wider visa routes. Limitations of the data is explained in further detail below.
Further information about the data set used for this analysis
The data set contains all unique Graduate visa records that were successfully extracted from Home Office’ case working information databases and securely shared with HMRC.
The data set only contains main applicant Graduate visas granted to those aged 18 and over. It does not contain information on their dependants.
The data set only includes PAYE employment earnings in the UK and does not contain self-employed earnings or earnings from any other sources. This has meant that a small number of Graduate visa holders counted as unemployed might in fact have been self employed, however, the number of self employed Graduate visa holders is very small.
All figures and tables in this section relate to Graduate visa holders whose visa was granted before the start of the period being looked at and who had not switched onto any other visa type during the period.
We currently are unable to identify hours worked or whether employment is part-time or full-time.
By ‘in employment’ for the full financial year, at least some part of it or in a single month, this refers to the monthly employment level gross pay for this period being greater than £0.
Percentages are rounded to the nearest per cent. Figures are rounded to the nearest £. Where percentages are rounded, they may not total 100% because they have been rounded independently.
Age is calculated as of 5 April 2022 for analyses focusing on financial year ending March 2023 and as of the start of the month for analysis focusing on earnings within each month. All other demographic characteristics are recorded as of the time of the Graduate visa application.
A small number of Graduate visa records were missing an expiry date. All held a grant date. Where an expiry date was missing, one was imputed by adding 2 years to the grant date. This will have likely been the correct expiry date for most of these records where an expiry date was missing, however, if the Graduate visa holder was granted the 3-year visa after completing a PhD or had obtained a Graduate visa under a different expiry date, this imputation may be incorrect.
Sectors are based on the UK SIC codes, as defined by the ONS. These codes have been determined from both the IDBR and data from Companies House for each PAYE enterprise. Sector information is included where available in the data. Graduate visa holders may have worked in multiple sectors either concurrently across the financial year or even simultaneously.
Limitations of the data
While figures are derived from HMRC matched data, figures are calculated using a separate methodology to the UK labour market statistics, jointly produced by HMRC and the ONS, and cannot be directly compared to these statistics. Caution is advised when comparing to any other similar data sources of graduate or UK population earning statistics.
As with all administrative data, there will be a small number of cases where data is missing or has been inputted incorrectly. Some information submitted by employers for RTI is late, missing or incorrect.
Data cleaning was performed prior to analysis to allow for optimal matching outcomes. Duplicated visa data was also removed prior to analysis; however, some may remain in the data. We are exploring the use of an alternative data extraction method for visa records to minimise data processing errors and better reflect other published sources.
While standards for a ‘robust’ match to HMRC data have been set high, matches may still not be 100% accurate. Individuals with near identical personal details may be incorrectly identified as the same person.
Unmatched Graduate visa records are counted as unemployed within all figures reporting on proportions of Graduate visa holders in employment. Some Graduate visa holders may have been in employment but were not successfully matched due to discrepancies in the personal identifier information held in either Home Office or HMRC data used for matching. There may be instances where the likelihood of being matched differs by certain demographics or other characteristics