Research and analysis

Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: November 2025 summary

Updated 11 December 2025

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

November 2025 was the wettest November on record, across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, with 133mm of precipitation averaged across the area, 218% of the long term average (LTA). The high precipitation totals allowed for a significant reduction in the soil moisture deficit (SMD), from an area average of 106mm at the end of October to 20.9mm by the end of November. River flows also recovered and ranged from 78% to 244% of the LTA, across the 12 indicator sites, while there was also significant recovery in groundwater levels, with only Grainsby showing levels below normal. Reservoir stocks have begun to recover, however all by Ravensthorpe remain below their normal operating curve.

1. Rainfall

Across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire (LNA), November 2025 recorded an average precipitation of 133mm, equivalent to 218% of the LTA. This precipitation total was exceptionally high for the time of year and the wettest November on record, dating back to 1871. Between the 6 hydrological catchments, precipitation totals ranged from 115.8mm, in South Forty Foot and Hobhole, to 158.9mm, in Louth Grimsby and Ancholme. All 6 hydrological areas recorded exceptionally high precipitation totals.

Autumn 2025 has been characterised by very wet weather across LNA as the last 3 months’ precipitation shows as it has been the 14th wettest September to November on record. Four of the 6 hydrological sites have seen notably high precipitation totals, while the Upper Welland and Nene saw the lowest total, but still 123% of the LTA, and the Louth Grimsby and Ancholme experienced 167% of the LTA precipitation, making it the fifth wettest September to November recorded for the hydrological zone.

The wet recent months have been able to mask the dry first half of the year when looking at longer term precipitation trends. The past 6 months’ precipitation totals are 97% of the LTA across LNA, with all hydrological zones receiving normal volumes of precipitation, or above. However, over the past 12-month period, the influence of the dry end to 2024 and start to 2025 can be seen in the precipitation totals across LNA. The area precipitation for the last year has been 89% of the LTA and both the Upper and Lower Welland and Nene have seen below normal precipitation over that period.

2. Soil moisture deficit and recharge

The SMD across LNA dramatically reduced in response to the high precipitation totals throughout November 2025. At the end of October, the SMD averaged at 106mm, which meant the area SMD was between 26mm and 50mm greater than the LTA. However, the SMD in the last week of November had reduced to 20.9mm and was between 6mm and 25mm above the LTA SMD in 5 hydrological areas, while in Steeping Great and Long the SMD was between 5mm above and 5mm below the LTA. The high precipitation totals have enabled a reversal of SMD conditions over the course of the past month.

3. River flows

The high precipitation totals across LNA also resulted in high river flows in the twelve indicator sites across the area. Flows ranged from 78% of the LTA on the Nene at Geldharts Mill to 244% of the LTA on the Welland at Ashley. All 12 indicator sites saw flows normal or above, with 3 above normal and 3, the Barlings Eau at Langworth and the Welland at Ashley and Barrowden/Tixover, recording notably high flows during November. This is in contrast to October which saw one site experiencing notably low flows and 4 sites experiencing below normal flows for the time of year.

4. Groundwater levels   

Groundwater levels across LNA saw strong recovery over the course of the month with only one site, Grainsby, not seeing an improvement and remaining below normal. In contrast:

• 4 sites recorded normal groundwater levels
• 2 sites were above normal, Barton (Horkstow Road) and Burnham
• one site was notably high, Dunholme Road
• 2 sites recorded exceptionally high groundwater levels, Castlethorpe Bridge and Grange de Lings

5. Reservoir stocks

The high precipitation and river flow has also enabled some recovery in the reservoir stocks towards their normal operating curves; however, all reservoirs in LNA remained below their normal operating curve, with the exception of Ravensthorpe. Rutland remained below Level 1, categorised as demand exceeding abstraction potential, however it remains above drought alert levels.

6. Environmental impact 

The Trent-Witham-Ancholme transfer scheme, as well as the Gwash-Glen transfer and the Slea Augmentation schemes, have now all been turned off in response to the high rainfall recorded across the month of November.

7. Forward look

7.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites

December 2025: Flow sites in the north of LNA are likely to experience normal flows or above, while rivers towards the south are likely to be below normal or above.

March 2026: Flow sites in LNA are likely to experience normal flows or above.

7.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

March 2026: Groundwater levels across LNA are likely to be normal or above, except for Grainsby which is likely to be below normal or above.

September 2026: Groundwater levels across LNA are likely to be notably low or above, although the forecasting is less conclusive.

Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report

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