Research and analysis

East Anglia water situation: January 2026 summary

Updated 17 February 2026

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

East Anglia rainfall for January 2026 ranged from 129% to 198% of the long term average (LTA) for the month. The average soil moisture deficit (SMD) decreased by 14mm since December, all catchments ending January with deficits below 10mm. River flows increased significantly following the month’s high rainfall, with above average flows found across much of the region. North-western catchments continue to display below normal flow having, receiving comparatively less rainfall. Groundwater levels have continued to increase at almost of sites, more than half are still below normal levels for the time of year. Public water supply reservoirs ended January 2026 with levels ranging from 59% to 91% of their full storage capacities.

2. Rainfall

January 2026 rainfall totals across East Anglia ranged from 129% to 198% of the lLTA for the month. The East Suffolk and North Essex catchments received the highest total rainfalls, receiving 189% and 198% of their LTAs respectively. All catchments recorded above normal or higher rainfall for January. Over the past 3 months, all catchments have recorded above normal or higher rainfall with the exception of South Essex, recording normal levels though still above average at 106% of its LTA.

3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge

The SMD for East Anglia at the end of January 2026 was 4mm, which is normal for the time of year. All catchments had SMDs below 10mm, with half being 5mm above or below the LTA, and the other half instead being 6mm to 25mm below.

4. River flows

Following high rainfall in all catchments, the January 2026 month mean flows at most sites have increased significantly since December 2025, with most catchments reporting normal or higher flows, with the Colne being the only river recording notably high flows at 193% of the LTA. The northern rivers; Heacham, Burn and Nar, were instead below normal, having started the month particularly low and showing more gradual recovery compared to other river’s flashy responses.

5. Groundwater levels   

Groundwater levels have begun or continued to rise at all reporting sites with available data, with the exception of Therfield which continues to fall. Over half of the reporting stations have below normal or lower levels for the time of year, with the other half returning either normal or higher. Breckland and Bircham Newton in the central and northern areas are notably low while Fringford in the west was the only site with notably high levels for the time of year.

6. Reservoir stocks

All public water supply reservoirs have seen a net increase in storage in January 2026, with the exception of Ardleigh which only started increasing towards the end of the month. At the end of the month, levels ranged from 59% to 91% of the full storage capacity, and only Alton was above its normal operating curve.

7. Forward look

7.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites

River flow projections at all sites show a high probability of normal or higher flows for March 2026. The Ouse has the lowest probability of normal or greater flows, and is the only site which has a higher probability of below normal or lower flows.

7.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

Groundwater projections for March 2026 have a high probability of normal levels or higher at most sites. Newmarket and Kenninghall instead have a higher probability of below normal levels by the End of March.

Author: Hydrology Team, hydrology-ean-and-lna@environment-agency.gov.uk

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.