Research and analysis

Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: January 2026 summary

Updated 17 February 2026

Applies to England

• Publication for Northern Ireland
• Publication for Scotland
• Publication for Wales

1. Summary

January 2026 was another wet month across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire, continuing the pattern observed over the previous few months. This was the tenth wettest January on record, 90mm of rain fell across the area, 172% of the long term average. High precipitation meant the soil moisture deficit continued to reduce and was just 2.22mm by the end of the month. River flows continued to be high and ranged from 147% to 283% of the long-term monthly average across the twelve indicator sites. Groundwater levels also remained high, with all indicator sites with available data recording above normal, or greater, groundwater levels. Reservoir stocks are above the normal operating curve at all sites apart from Covenham.

2. Rainfall

Across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire Area (LNA), January 2026 recorded an average precipitation of 90mm, equivalent to 172% of the long term average (LTA). Across the 6 hydrological areas, the LTA ranged from 152% in the north in Louth Grimsby and Ancholme to 181% in Lower Welland and Nene. Four of the 6 areas experienced notably high precipitation, while the Lower Welland Nene recorded exceptionally high precipitation. January 2026 was the eighth wettest January on record for the Lower Welland and Nene and the Upper Welland and Nene hydrological areas, while being the tenth wettest January on record in South Forty Foot and Hobhole and Witham to Chapel Hill hydrological areas.

The end of 2025 was characterised by high precipitation across LNA and a wet January means the last 3 months have been the wettest November to January on record, with 296mm of precipitation. 174% of the LTA. Five of the 6 hydrological areas experienced their wettest November to January on record, while the Upper Welland and Nene experienced the third wettest period.

Over the previous 6 months, precipitation totals have also been high across the 6 hydrological areas of LNA. Four areas have seen above normal precipitation, between 113% and 122% of the LTA, while the Witham to Chapel Hill area recorded 132% of the LTA and Louth Grimsby and Ancholme 135%, notably and exceptionally high levels for the time of year. Despite the high precipitation totals in LNA over the last 6 months, normal precipitation volumes have been recorded in each of the 6 hydrological areas when comparing the previous 12 months to the LTA for the same period. LNA has recorded 94% of the LTA over the past 12 months with the hydrological areas recording between 88% and 99% of the LTA.

3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge

As LNA experienced another high precipitation month, the soil moisture deficit (SMD) responded accordingly and continued to reduce. At the beginning of January 2026, the SMD across LNA was 10.3mm, however by end of the month this had reduced to just 2.22mm. This means the current SMD is between 6mm and 25mm smaller than the LTA, for this time of year. All 6 hydrological areas have recorded an SMD below 10mm.

4. River flows

Of the 12 key indicator sites for mean monthly river flow, four recorded above normal flows, while 6 recorded notably high and two exceptionally high flows for the time of year. Mean monthly flows ranged from 147% of the LTA at Partney on the Lymn to 283% at Ashley on the Welland. Flows remained above normal for the majority of the month.

5. Groundwater levels   

Groundwater levels have continued to remain high during January 2026 and levels generally rose across the key indicator boreholes. All sites with available monitoring data finished the month with above normal, or greater, groundwater levels, including Dunholme Road, Hanthorpe and Leasingham Exploratory which all recorded exceptionally high groundwater levels for this time of year. The limestone sites towards the south of the area recorded categorisation increases over the month, while 3 sites in the north did drop a categorisation, but remained healthy.

6. Reservoir stocks

The high river flows and precipitation have continued to enable recovery in the reservoir stocks above their normal operating curve. The exception to this is Covenham which has dipped below Level 1, categorised as demand exceeding abstraction potential, however it remains above drought alert levels.

7. Environmental impact 

During January 2026 there were 58 flood alerts and 4 flood warning issued. All transfer schemes remained off throughout the month. No licence cessations were issued.

8. Forward look

8.1 Projections for river flows at key sites

March 2026: key indicator sites for river flow will likely have normal, or below, flows when there is less than 80% LTA rainfall. However, at 100% LTA rainfall all sites should see normal flow levels, with the Lud experiencing above normal flows. While 120% LTA rainfall will result in above normal flows at 3 sites and the rest at normal. It is most likely that flows will be normal or above at all indicator sites by March 2026.

June 2026: key indicator sites for river flow will likely be below normal under 60% and 80% rainfall scenarios, while the Nene at Northampton and Wansford will be exceptionally low under a 60% rainfall scenario and notably low under an 80% rainfall scenario. Under a 100% and 120% rainfall scenario, flows at key indicator sites are projected to be normal by June 2026. Flows are likely to be normal or above by June 2026.

8.2 Projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers

March 2026

Key aquifers are projected to have groundwater levels at or above normal for the time of year under 60% and 80% rainfall scenarios and above normal or greater levels under 100% and 120% rainfall scenarios. Leasingham Exploratory is projected to have exceptionally high groundwater levels irrespective of the rainfall scenario, while Hanthorpe will be exceptionally high in scenarios above 60% rainfall. Groundwater levels are likely to be above normal or greater by March 2026, with 3 of the 4 sites projecting exceptionally high groundwater levels as the most likely outcome.

September 2026

Three of the four key aquifers are projected to be below normal groundwater levels by September under a 60% rainfall scenario, while Barton is projected to be at normal levels. Under an 80% rainfall scenario the same 3 sites are projected to be normal, while Barton is above normal. Under 100% and 120% rainfall scenarios Barton is projected to have an exceptionally high groundwater level, while the remaining sites are normal under a 100% rainfall scenario or above normal or greater under a 120% rainfall scenario. Aquifer levels are likely to be normal or above by September 2026.

Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk

Contact Details: 03708 506 506

All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report