Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire water situation: July 2025 summary
Updated 12 August 2025
Applies to England
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1. Summary
In contrast to the preceding months, July 2025 received average rainfall across Lincolnshire and Northamptonshire (LNA). Precipitation totals ranged from 83% to 110% of the long-term average (LTA), normal for this time of year. Despite the respite in dry weather, five of the six hydrological areas have experienced below normal or notably low precipitation totals over the last 3 months and the soil moisture deficit (SMD) remained high at 129.1mm, on average, across the area.
River flows displayed an east-west split as those catchments in the west saw flows recover to a flow categorisation of normal or above, 62% to 207% of the LTA, while rivers towards the east saw less recovery and are classified as exceptionally low to below normal, 14% to 59% of the LTA. Groundwater levels remained stable and, in most cases, unchanged, with the exception of Grange de Lings which recorded normal groundwater levels for this time of year, compared to exceptionally low levels in the previous month.
Reservoirs remained slightly below target levels for this time of year. The Trent-Witham-Ancholme transfer scheme operated throughout the majority of the month and the Slea Augmentation scheme was also in operation throughout July.
2. Rainfall
The 6 hydrological areas of LNA saw between 50mm and 66mm of precipitation during July 2025, all classified as normal for this time of year, 83% to 110% of the LTA. The precipitation totals were a stark contrast to totals experienced in the area over the past 3 to 6 months, which have been characterised by dry weather and infrequent precipitation.
During the period of May to July 2025 5 of the 6 hydrological areas have experienced below normal or notably low precipitation totals, with the Upper Welland and Nene area experiencing particularly low precipitation, just 59% of the LTA for the period. Over the past 6 months, LNA has experienced the seventh driest February to July on record, 173mm (59% LTA), with individual hydrological areas experiencing between their fifth and tenth driest periods, over the same time span, and a maximum of 64% of the LTA rainfall received in any hydrological area. Despite a dry 2025, the 6 hydrological areas have experienced between 81% to 95% of the LTA precipitation over past 12 months. However, there is a clear north-south divide, with areas within the north of LNA experiencing the lower end of that LTA range and below normal rainfall totals for the 12-month period, as opposed to the southern areas that have received normal rainfall totals over the same time frame.
3. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
The SMD across LNA by the end of July 2025, 129.1mm, remained close to the SMD recorded at the end of the previous month, 130mm, despite a sharp reduction in the deficit two thirds of the way through the month during a period a high rainfall. A dry last week of July meant the SMD quickly built up again to mirror the end of June 2025. Five of the six hydrological areas have an SMD 26 to 50mm greater than the LTA, with Louth Grimsby and Ancholme 6 to 25mm greater than the LTA.
4. River flows
Rivers flows varied between 14% and 207% of their LTA during July 2025. Flows predominately sat between below normal and normal classification with an east-west split as catchments in the west saw flows recover to a flow categorisation of normal or above, 62% to 207% of the LTA, while rivers towards the east saw less recovery and are classified as exceptionally low to below normal, 14% to 59% of the LTA. Kates Bridge + King Street on the Glen was the one site to see a flow categorisation reduction compared to the preceding month, while flows at 4 sites increased by at least one classification banding.
5. Groundwater levels
Groundwater levels remained unchanged at sites across LNA with the exception of Grange de Lings which recorded normal groundwater levels for this time of year, compared to exceptionally low levels in the previous month. Sites have recorded below normal to normal groundwater levels, except for Dunholme Road, which continues to report exceptionally low levels, and Castlethorpe Bridge, which recorded above normal groundwater levels for this time of year.
6. Reservoir stocks
Despite the increase in rainfall, compared to the past 6 months, reservoir levels continue to be drawn down below their normal operating curves, including Pitsford which has been at target level by the end of June 2025. While reservoirs are below normal operating levels, they are all comfortably above drought alert levels.
7. Environmental impact
The Trent-Witham-Ancholme transfer scheme operated throughout the majority of the month and the Slea Augmentation scheme was also in operation throughout July. The Gwash-Glen transfer scheme remains off. During July there were 37 hands-off-flows active across the area, with 23 resume notices issued after high precipitation towards the end of the month. There were no flood alerts or warnings issued during July in LNA.
8. Forward look
8.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
September 2025: All sites are likely to experience below normal to normal flows with the exception of Nene, Northampton being more likely to experience flows above normal compared to the other sites.
December 2025: Projections are less conclusive by December 2025, but high probability of flows being normal or below across all sites.
8.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
December 2025: Sites to the north, Grainsby and Barton, are likely to have either normal or below normal groundwater levels, while the sites in the south and likely to have groundwater levels below normal or lower.
March 2026: Groundwater projections for 6 months are less conclusive, but all groundwater sites are more likely to have below normal or lower groundwater levels than normal or above.
Author: Pan Hydrology Team, Hydrology-EAN-and-LNA@environment-agency.gov.uk
Contact details: 03708 506 506
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report