East Anglia water situation: July 2025 summary
Updated 12 August 2025
Applies to England
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The East Anglia rainfall for July 2025 ranged from 90% to 136% of the long term average for the month, with the wettest catchments being in the east of the area. There was a minor reduction in the area soil moisture deficit following a period of unsettled weather in the third week of the month. However, with above average temperatures in July, the soil moisture deficit for East Anglia remained notably high for the time of year at 121mm. For the majority of rivers, the flow for July 2025, when calculated as an average for the month, was less than the flow for June 2025. This is despite rainfall for July 2025 being approximately double the amount recorded for June 2025 in much of the area. Groundwater levels at the majority of report sites continue to fall, although remain normal to below normal for the time of year. Public water supply reservoirs within East Anglia ended July 2025 with levels ranging from 72% to 83% of full storage capacity.
1. Rainfall
July 2025 rainfall totals across East Anglia ranged from 90% to 136% of the long term average (LTA) for the month. The highest rainfall totals were recorded towards the east of the area, with East Suffolk and Broadlands both receiving approximately 76mm across the month. The average rainfall across East Anglia for July 2025 was 58mm, which is 107% of the historic LTA and is considered normal for the time of year. This approximately average July rainfall followed an exceptionally dry spring and start to summer. The East Anglia rainfall total for March 2025 to June 2025 was 81mm, which ranks as the fourth driest March to June period on record (1871 to 2025) for East Anglia.
2. Soil moisture deficit and recharge
The soil moisture deficit (SMD) for East Anglia at the end of July 2025 was 121mm. The SMD decreased following rainfall in the latter half of the month, although remains notably high for the time of year. The hydrological catchments with the highest SMDs are located towards the north-west of the area, with the Central Area Fenland and North West Norfolk and Wissey catchments having SMD values of between 146mm and 155mm.
3. River flows
For the majority of river flow report sites, the July 2025 month mean flow was less than the June 2025 month mean flow. This can largely be attributed to the expected steady recession in river base flows through the summer. Report sites along the Bedford Ouse, and its tributaries, recorded July 2025 flows considered normal for the time of year. The lowest flows were concentrated towards the centre of the area, with report sites on the Ely Ouse and its tributaries, such as the Wissey and Little Ouse, recording exceptionally low flows for the time of year. Most notably, the July 2025 month mean flow for the Ely Ouse at Denver was 1% of the LTA.
4. Groundwater levels
Groundwater levels continue to fall in line with the expected seasonal pattern. The majority of report sites ended July 2025 with groundwater levels categorised as normal or below normal for the time of year. The groundwater level at Therfield Rectory, North Hertfordshire Chalk, continues to be notably high for the time of year. This is likely to be the result of a locally exceptional recharge season, with the September 2024 to February 2025 rainfall in the Upper Bedford Ouse catchment being the fifth wettest September to February rainfall total on record (1871 to 2025) for that catchment. The lowest groundwater levels are to the north-east with Hindolveston, Norfolk Chalk, and The Spinney, Wensum Chalk, respectively recording exceptionally low and notably low levels for July 2025.
5. Reservoir stocks
Public water supply reservoirs within East Anglia finished July 2025 with levels ranging from 72% to 83% of full storage capacity. In all cases, the end of July reservoir level was below the respective reservoir normal operating curve.
6. Forward look
6.1 Probabilistic ensemble projections for river flows at key sites
River flow projections for the Bedford Ouse, and its tributaries, show a high probability of normal or higher flows for September 2025. Flow projections for the Ely Ouse show a high probability of below normal or lower flows for September 2025. Whilst the flow at Denver is currently close to zero, we expect a significant recovery in flows with the end of the irrigation season.
6.2 Probabilistic ensemble projections for groundwater levels in key aquifers
The groundwater forecast for September 2025 reflects the current aquifer levels, with most forecast sites expected to be within the normal to below normal range, and Therfield Rectory expected to be within the notably high to above normal range. The majority of forecast sites show a greater than 50% chance of below normal or lower groundwater levels by March 2026, whilst Therfield Rectory is expected to have normal or higher groundwater levels.
Author: Hydrology Team, hydrology-ean-and-lna@environment-agency.gov.uk
All data are provisional and may be subject to revision. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of the Environment Agency. Its officers, servants or agents accept no liability for any loss or damage arising from the interpretation or use of the information, or reliance upon views contained in this report.