The 2019 voluntary scheme for branded medicines pricing and access: payment percentage for 2021
Updated 2 February 2021
Applies to England
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Summary
The payment percentage in 2021 is set at 5.1%, based on growth in total measured sales as well as other updates in line with annexes 4 and 5 of the 2019 voluntary scheme documents.
This document replaces the previous version which was published in December 2020. Following continual data checks, this replacement contains corrections to some of the information.
Measured sales growth rates
In addition to other updates as outlined in annexes 4 and 5 of the 2019 voluntary scheme documents, the payment percentage in 2021 is result of growth of measured sales between 2018 and 2019, and between 2019 and 2020.
Growth in measured sales for the 2019 voluntary scheme (that is a comparison of their respective measured sales) is calculated from sales in the 2019 voluntary scheme, the statutory scheme and parallel imports.
The 2018 to 2019 growth in measured sales is based on full-year data where available.
The 2019 to 2020 growth rate of measured sales is calculated on partial-year data, in accordance with annex 4 paragraph 31 of the 2019 voluntary scheme. The 2019 to 2020 growth rate is based on sales made between October 2018 and September 2019 (Q4 2018, Q1 to Q3 2019) and October 2019 to September 2020 (Q4 2019, Q1 to Q3 2020).
Furthermore, in accordance with annex 4, paragraph 34, for the 2019 to 2020 growth rate, companies whose sales exceed £5 million for the first time and so were included in measured sales for the first time in 2020 (and vice versa) are excluded from the growth calculation.
First, we calculate growth rates across each component of measured sales for 2019 and 2020 as shown in tables 1 and 2.
Table 1: scheme level measured sales included in the 2019 growth rate calculation
| 2019 voluntary scheme | Statutory scheme | Parallel imports | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | £8,855 million | £1,654 million | £736 million |
| 2019 | £9,081 million | £1,671 million | £697 million |
| Growth rate % | 2.54% (LOVSGR%1b) | 1.04% (LOSSGR%1b) | -5.34% (LOPIGR%1b) |
Table 2: scheme level measured sales included in the 2020 growth rate calculation
| 2019 voluntary scheme | Statutory scheme | Parallel imports | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 2018 to Q3 2019 | £8,962 million | £1,672 million | £713 million |
| Q4 2019 to Q3 2020 | £10,106 million | £703 million | £744 million |
| Growth rate % | 12.77% (LOVSGR%2b) | -57.93% (LOSSGR%2b) | 4.32% (LOPIGR%2b) |
These growth rates are then applied to the latest outturn 2018 sales returns at scheme level, to produce 2019 and 2020 sales figures. These are then summed to arrive at the growth rates for total measured sales, which can be seen in table 3.
Table 3: scheme level and total measured sales and total growth rates
| 2019 voluntary scheme | Statutory scheme | Parallel imports | Total measured sales | % growth in total measured sales | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latest outturn 2018 | £8,885 million (LOVS0b) | £1,654 million (LOSS0b) | £736 million (LOPI0b) | £11,246 million (LOT0b) | - |
| Latest outturn 2019 | £9,081 million (LOVS1b) +2.54% | £1,671 million (LOSS1b) +1.04% | £697 million (LOPI1b) -5.34% | £11,449 million (LOT1b) | 1.81% |
| Provisional 2020 | £10,240 million (LOVS2b) +12.77% | £703 million (LOSS2b) -57.93% | £727 million (LOPI2b) +4.32% | £11,670 million (LOT2b) | 1.93% |
Table 3 shows that the total measured sales growth rate between provisional 2020 sales and latest outturn 2019 sales is 1.93%. These growth rates are used, along with other data outlined in annex 4 and 5 of the 2019 voluntary scheme, to calculate the payment percentage for 2021.
Adjusted forecasts and payment profile
Table 4 sets out for each year of the scheme to 2022, the adjusted forecasts and profile of payment percentages following the latest outturn of scheme data in November 2020.
Table 4: adjusted forecasts and profile of payment percentages
| 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth rate of total measured sales | 1.81% | 1.93% | - | - |
| Adjusted forecast of the growth rate of total measured sales | - | - | 2.50% | 2.69% |
| NAS and MSE sales as a share of voluntary scheme measured sales | 3.25% (LOFEX%1b) | 4.33% (LOFEX%2b) | - | - |
| Adjusted forecast NAS and MSE sales as a share of voluntary scheme measured sales | - | - | 7.05% (FaEX%3) | 7.25% |
| Annual payment percentage | 9.6% (P%1) | 5.9% (P%2) | 5.1% (P%3) | - |
| Estimated future annual payment percentage | - | - | - | 5.8% |
Table 4 shows the adjusted forecast growth rate of measured sales to 2022 and revised forecast NAS (new active substance) and MSE (medium sized company exempted) sales as a share of voluntary scheme measured sales.
These have contributed to a payment percentage in 2021 of 5.1%.
General notes
- The information in all tables is that held on DHSC’s database at 16 November 2020 (corrected).
- Totals may not sum due to rounding.
- All tables are subject to future correction such as where audited data replaces best available data. They will be updated at each quarterly publication point to reflect the latest available information. The audit and reconciliation arrangements are set out in paragraphs 4.26 to 4.31 of the 2019 voluntary scheme.