Aggregate net sales and payment information: February 2022
Published 14 March 2022
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Table 1: unaudited sales reports – measured sales
Aggregate net sales subject to the affordability mechanism (measured sales):
| Year | 2019 voluntary scheme | Statutory scheme | Parallel imports | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | £8,847m | £1,650m | £771m | £11,268m |
| 2019 | £9,093m | £1,668m | £697m | £11,458m |
| 2020 Q1 | £2,755m | £99m | £191m | £3,045m |
| 2020 Q2 | £2,402m | £95m | £176m | £2,673m |
| 2020 Q3 | £2,614m | £87m | £199m | £2,899m |
| 2020 Q4 | £2,887m | £98m | £200m | £3,186m |
| 2020 | £10,649m | £379m | £766m | £11,794m |
| 2021 Q1 | £2,684m | £93m | £177m | £2,955m |
| 2021 Q2 | £2,816m | £100m | £197m | £3,114m |
| 2021 Q3 | £3,072m | £103m | £204m | £3,379m |
| 2021 Q4 | £3,221m | £104m | £226m | £3,551m |
| 2021 | £11,794m | £399m | £805m | £12,998m |
Table 1 notes
- Table 1 sets out aggregate information about measured sales subject to the affordability mechanism. It includes information received on parallel imports, and information from audited annual sales reports and unaudited quarterly sales reports provided by members of the 2019 voluntary scheme and the statutory scheme.
- The baseline for measured sales in respect of the statutory scheme and parallel imports has been calculated in accordance with annex 4, paragraph 1 of the 2019 voluntary scheme.
- ‘Measured sales’ is defined in the glossary of the 2019 voluntary scheme for branded medicines pricing and access as “sales of scheme products by scheme members, statutory scheme sales and parallel import sales, but excluding exemptions from measured sales”.
- Figures for the 2019 voluntary scheme reflect any audited sales reports received. Annual totals from 2019 onwards for the statutory scheme reflect any audited sales reports received. The 2021 annual total is the sum of the 2021 quarters rather than a specific annual return.
Measured sales in any particular period reflect all relevant scheme members in either the 2019 voluntary scheme or statutory scheme during that period. For example, several companies moved from the statutory scheme to the voluntary scheme at the start of 2020. Those companies’ measured sales will appear under the statutory scheme in 2019 but the voluntary scheme in 2020.
Table 2: 2019 voluntary scheme sales reports – eligible sales and resulting total scheme payments
| Period | Aggregate eligible sales (column 1) | Resulting aggregate scheme payments (column 2) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | £8,797m | £845m |
| 2020 | £10,065m | £594m |
| 2021 Q1 | £2,450m | £125m |
| 2021 Q2 | £2,636m | £134m |
| 2021 Q3 | £2,906m | £148m |
| 2021 Q4 | £3,058m | £156m |
| 2021 | £11,050m | £564m |
Table 2 notes
Table 2, which is derived from unaudited quarterly sales reports and any audited annual sales reports received from members of the 2019 voluntary scheme, sets out aggregate information showing eligible sales covered by the scheme payment and the resulting scheme payments. The 2021 annual total is the sum of the 2021 quarters rather than a specific annual return.
There are 2 columns of information:
- column 1: aggregate eligible sales
- column 2: resulting aggregate scheme payments due for the respective periods
Note: eligible sales is defined in the glossary of the 2019 voluntary scheme as “sales of scheme products but excluding exemptions from eligible sales”. The percentage payment applies to these sales. Eligible sales excludes certain types of sales, including the first £5 million of sales by a medium-sized company and new active substance (NAS) sales. Both of these sales categories are, however, included in measured sales and, therefore, the calculation of the overall sum to be repaid across all scheme members.
Table 3: statutory scheme sales reports – net sales covered by the statutory scheme payment and resulting payments
| Statutory scheme payment and resulting payments | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Aggregate net sales covered by the applicable annual statutory scheme payment (a) | £635m | £34m |
| Resulting aggregate statutory scheme payment (b) | £63m | £2m |
| Net sales of extant frameworks and public contracts subject to 7.8% payment (c) | £311m | £17m |
| Resulting statutory scheme 7.8% payment (d) | £24m | £1m |
| Total resulting statutory scheme payment (b + d) | £87m | £4m |
| Statutory scheme payment and resulting payments | Jan to Mar 2021 | Apr to Jun 2021 | Jul to Sep 2021 | Oct to Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggregate net sales covered by the applicable annual statutory scheme payment (a) | £8m | £17m | £86m | £86m |
| Resulting aggregate statutory scheme payment (b) | £1m | £2m | £9m | £9m |
| Net sales of extant frameworks and public contracts subject to 7.8% payment (c) | £4m | £4m | £5m | £4m |
| Resulting statutory scheme 7.8% payment (d) | <£1m | <£1m | <£1m | <£1m |
| Total resulting statutory scheme payment (b + d) | £1m | £2m | £10m | £10m |
Table 3 notes
Table 3 is derived from audited and unaudited statutory scheme sales reports. It sets out aggregate unaudited quarterly information showing net sales covered by the statutory scheme payment and the resulting payments.
Table 4: 2019 voluntary scheme updated calculations – measured sales growth rates and projected 2023 payment percentage
Observed and adjusted forecast modelled measured sales growth rates:
| 2019 observed | 2020 observed | 2021 observed | 2022 forecast | 2023 forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 voluntary scheme | 2.78% | 16.04% | 9.95% | 5.88% | 5.63% |
| Statutory scheme | 1.09% | -77.29% | 5.36% | 5.78% | 5.47% |
| Parallel import | -9.56% | 9.87% | 5.06% | 0.93% | -0.42% |
| Overall | 1.69% | 2.08% | 9.48% | 5.56% | 5.26% |
Confirmed and projected 2019 voluntary scheme payment percentages:
| 2019 confirmed | 2020 confirmed | 2021 confirmed | 2022 confirmed | 2023 projected | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 voluntary scheme | 9.6% | 5.9% | 5.1% | 15.0% | 23.7% |
Table 4 notes
- The 2022 payment percentage was set at 15% following an agreement between the Department of Health and Social Care and the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry.[footnote 1]
- Table 4 shows the observed full year growth from 2019 to 2021, as well as the adjusted forecast growth for 2022 and 2023 based on the latest data.
- In accordance with annex 4, paragraph 34 of the scheme documentation, companies whose sales exceed (or fall below) £5m between years, and so are included/excluded from measured sales of subsequent years, are excluded from the growth calculations.
Table 4 also shows the resulting projected payment percentage for 2023 based on the latest data up to the end of Q4 2021. The actual 2023 payment percentage will be based on, in addition to other elements, the observed full year measured sales growth from 2019 to 2021, proxy 2022 growth (observed year-to-date growth to Q3 2022) and adjusted forecast growth in 2023. The projected payment percentage for 2023 is calculated using scheme mechanics based on current sales growth adjusted forecasts in 2022 and 2023, and a 15% payment percentage in 2022. This projection is not a forecast or prediction and will be updated as we get more data with the final 2023 payment percentage set in December, based on data up to the end of Q3 2022.
General notes
Note 1: the information in all tables is that held on the Department of Health and Social Care’s database at 16 February 2022.
Note 2: totals may not sum due to rounding.
Note 3: all tables are subject to future correction, such as where audited data replaces best available data, and will be updated at each quarterly publication point to reflect the latest available information. The audit and reconciliation arrangements are set out in paragraphs 4.26 to 4.31 of the 2019 voluntary scheme. The statutory scheme audit requirements are set out at paragraph 23 of the Branded Health Service Medicines (Costs) Regulations 2018.