Research and analysis

NRT annual statement 2022

Published 25 August 2022

Applies to England

Ofqual has today, Thursday 25 August, published the results of the National Reference Test (NRT) in 2022. The National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) Results Digest shows the 2022 results alongside results from previous years.

Background

In February and March 2022, nearly 13,000 year 11 students from over 330 schools in England took the National Reference Test in English and maths, which is administered by NFER. The tests are designed to provide evidence on the performance of 16-year-old students in English and maths. The first live NRT, taken in 2017, was benchmarked against the first awards of the reformed GCSEs in English language and maths, and subsequent tests compare the performance of students with those in previous years.

Results are reported at three grade boundaries – grade 7, grade 5 and grade 4. Results are reported as expected percentages of students achieving those grades (and above) based on changes in performance on the NRT. This report focuses only on grades 7 and 4, since grade 5 is an arithmetic grade and would not normally be adjusted.

Results for 2022

The results are shown below. Because this test uses a sample of students, we report ‘confidence intervals’ around the results. These confidence intervals represent the possibility that if we had taken a different sample of students, and each student had taken a different subset of questions, we would get a slightly different result. The results show the changes in the expected percentage of students at the grade 7 and grade 4 boundaries, compared to 2020. The results are compared to 2020 because this is the last year of the NRT that was unaffected by the pandemic (the NRT took place prior to the school closures in March 2020).

In English, results showed no statistically significant difference when compared to 2020 at any of the key grades. In maths, results showed a statistically significant downward change when compared to 2020 at each of the key grades.

Expected percentage of students at each grade (with associated confidence intervals)

Subject	Grade 4 and above	Grade 7 and above
English language 2020	67.7 (65.7-69.7)	18.1 (16.4-19.8)
English language 2022	65.3 ( 63.2-67.4)	16.9 (15.5-18.3)
Maths 2020	74.1 (72.6-75.5)	24.1 (22.7-25.4)
Maths 2022	71.4 (69.9-72.8)	21.0 (19.7-22.4)

Using NRT evidence in awarding

The NRT provides an additional source of evidence for exam boards when setting grade boundaries in GCSE English language and maths. Where there is a statistically significant difference in performance, Ofqual can require exam boards to adjust the grade standards when setting GCSE grade boundaries. We did this in summer 2020 for GCSE maths. Each year, we discuss the NRT results with exam boards, ahead of making a decision on whether to make an adjustment.

In considering the evidence from the NRT, we aim to make sure that:

• our decisions are consistent over time and between subjects, regardless of the direction of any change
• we take account of contextual evidence from the student survey and other sources, and that we act cautiously in making any adjustments to grade standards
• we document and publish the reasons for our decisions

This summer the aim of awarding was to seek a midpoint between summer 2019 and summer 2021. While outcomes in maths are statistically significantly lower than in 2020, the Chief Regulator decided not to implement a downward change because this would be counter to the wider policy intent of more generous grading to reflect the disruption caused by the pandemic. There were no statistically significant changes in English.

Further information

More detail is provided in the results digest and there is more information about the test itself in the background information.