Research and analysis

The impact of recession on pay settlements and earnings by industry, 1977 to 2011. Dolton, Makepeace, Tremayne

A description of how the recession and the National Minimum Wage affected pay settlements in the UK between 1977 and 2011.


Econometric modelling of pay settlements and earnings by industry, 1977 to 2010

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This research presents evidence to help the LPC understand how the recession could affect the NMW.

The 2008 to 2009 recession is the first since the introduction of the National Minimum Wage (NMW) , so the Low Pay Commission (LPC) faces new problems in determining the NMW when earnings and economic growth as a whole are sluggish or negative.

The research looks at information from 1977 to 2011, relating to the recessions of the early 1980s and 1990s, and 2008 to 2009, to look at the relationship between pay settlements and economic forces during a recession.

Published 7 August 2013