Research and analysis

The cumulative air quality impacts of net zero technologies - a case study of the Humber and Teesside industrial clusters: summary

Published 7 October 2025

Applies to England

1. Chief Scientist’s Group report summary

This project used computer models to investigate the potential future impacts on air quality from net zero technologies in the Humber and Teesside industrial areas.

1.1 Background

The UK has committed to achieving net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, with a major milestone in 2035 when many net zero technologies, such as hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage, are expected to be operational. An important part of the UK Government’s net zero strategy is clustering industries together so that they can share supporting infrastructure such as transport links, electricity distribution networks and infrastructure for the offshore storage of carbon dioxide. However, locating multiple facilities in the same area could lead to higher levels of air pollution as emissions from different sources combine.

1.2 Approach

The study assessed the potential air quality impacts of net zero technologies, at local and regional levels, in the Humber and Teesside industrial clusters in the year 2035. The study aimed to identify the pollutants that should be prioritised in future research but did not seek to accurately predict what the air pollutant concentrations would be ten years in the future; there are too many unknowns for that to be possible. The study focused on the potential air quality risk to human health but also considered, in less detail, the potential risk to areas of nature around the industrial clusters.

The study developed three future scenarios for deploying net zero technologies in the Humber and Teesside industrial clusters. It made assumptions about what industries might be operational in 2035 and estimated the levels of air pollutants these industries may release. To account for emissions from sources other than net zero technologies, the study used existing emissions scenarios based on data from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory. Computer models, at local and regional scales, were then used to estimate ground-level concentrations of air pollutants.

1.3 Results

The study found that, in all three scenarios, the net zero industries would be contributing to air pollutants such as oxides of nitrogen and particulate matter, but not at levels that are likely to exceed air quality standards. The study also found, based on some conservative assumptions, that the amine chemicals used to capture carbon dioxide from industrial emissions were of the most potential concern for air quality.

Ammonia levels in the atmosphere are already high enough to pose risks to nature conservation sites, and this issue is expected to continue into the future. The modelling results show that, while ammonia remains a concern, the net zero technologies that were assessed in this study did not contribute significantly to ammonia emissions.

The main limitations of the study were the uncertainties around the deployment of net zero technologies, the estimates of emissions of air pollutants in 2035 and uncertainties in the modelling process.

1.4 Conclusions

The study has provided the Environment Agency, and others, with useful information on what pollutants we should be focussing on to ensure that the net zero industrial clusters do not pose an unacceptable risk to human health. The findings suggest that future work should focus on improving the assumptions on the future emission characteristics of amine-based compounds and on research aimed at reducing the potential for emissions of hazardous substances used to capture carbon dioxide from industrial emissions.

1.5 Publication details

This summary relates to information from project SC240002, reported in detail in the following output:

• Title: The cumulative air quality impacts of Net Zero technologies: a case study of the Teesside and Humberside industrial clusters
• Project manager: Mark Bourn, Climate Change and Resource Efficiency
• Research contractor: Ricardo

This project was commissioned by the Environment Agency’s Chief Scientist’s Group, which provides scientific knowledge, tools and techniques to enable us to protect and manage the environment as effectively as possible.

Enquiries: research@environment-agency.gov.uk.

© Environment Agency