Technical appendices

Question 1

Appendix A - Variables and data sources

Accepted Answer

Gender

Source: Awarding organisations

Values: Male/Female/Unknown or neither

Reference group: Female

Prior attainment

Source: Awarding organisations

Values: Very low, low, medium, high, very high, missing

Reference group: Medium

Notes: Normalised KS2 or GCSE score originally ranging from 0 – 100, divided into quintiles.

Ethnicity

Source: DfE (NDP and/or ILR)

Values:

White: British, White Irish, any other White background (AOWB)

Asian: Indian, Pakistani, Bangladeshi, Chinese, any other Asian background (AOAB)

Black: African, Caribbean, any other Black, African or Caribbean background (AOBACB)

Mixed or Multiple: White and Black Caribbean, White and Black African, White and Asian, any other Mixed or Multiple ethnic background (AOMMB)

Any Other Ethnic Group (AOEG)

Missing

Reference group: White British

Notes: For the A level analysis, because of their very low numbers of entries, WIRT and WROM were merged with WOTH. For the GCSE analysis, WIRT, WROM and WOTH remained separate categories.

For the VTQ analysis, categorisations were harmonised between the NPD and ILR for consistency and to align with the Government Statistical Service guidance where possible (some groups had to be merged into one of the ‘other’ groups, as numbers were too small to include as a separate category – for example, ‘Gypsy or Irish Traveller’ learners had to be merged into the ‘Any Other White Background’ group)

Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND)

Source: DfE (NDP and/or ILR)

Values: With SEND, without SEND, missing

Reference group: Without SEND

Free school meals (FSM) eligibility

Source: DfE (NDP and/or ILR)

Values: Eligible for FSM, not eligible for FSM, missing

Reference group: Not eligible for FSM

Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) score

Source: DfE (NDP and/or ILR)

Values: Very low, low, medium, high, very high, missing

Reference group: Medium

Notes: Higher scores indicate higher levels of local deprivation and lower scores indicate lower levels of local deprivation. For the purpose of our modelling, these scores were divided into quintiles

Language

Source: DfE (NDP and/or ILR)

Values: ENG (English), OTH (other than English),missing/unknown

Reference group: English

Notes: Used for GQ analysis only

Region

Source: Awarding organisations

Values: EM (East Midlands), EA (East of England), LD (London), NE (north-east), NW (north-west), SE (south-east), SW (south-west), WM (West Midlands), Y&H (Yorkshire and the Humber)

Reference group: south-east

Notes: Used for GQ analysis only

Centre Type

Source: Awarding organisations

Values: Acad (academy), Free (free school), FurE (further education establishment), Indp (independent school [including city training college]), SecComp (secondary comprehensive or middle school), SecMod (secondary modern or high school), SecSel (secondary selective school), Sixth (sixth form college), Tert (tertiary college), Other (covering college of higher education, university department, tutorial college, language school, special school, pupil referral unit, HM Young Offender Institution, HM Prison, training centre).

Reference group: Academy

Notes: Used for GQ analysis only

Question 2

Appendix B - Missing data summary

Accepted Answer

Appendix B.1 - GQ

Table B1.1 Percentage of A level entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in equalities dataset

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Centre type	0	0	0	0	0
Region	0	0	0	0	0
Gender	0	0	0	0	0
Prior attainment	7	7	6	7	8
Ethnicity	39	38	38	38	38
Major language	38	38	38	38	37
SEND	38	37	37	37	37
FSM eligibility	38	37	37	37	37
Deprivation	38	37	38	37	37

Table B1.2 Percentage of GCSE entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in equalities dataset

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Centre type	0	0	0	0	0
Region	0	0	0	0	0
Gender	0	0	0	0	0
Prior attainment	14	13	13	12	12
Ethnicity	7	7	6	7	7
Major language	6	6	5	6	6
SEND	6	6	5	5	5
FSM eligibility	6	6	5	5	5
Deprivation	6	6	5	5	6

Table B1.3 Percentage of each centre type’s A level entries in each year with missing/unknown information on the prior attainment, SEND and deprivation variables in equalities dataset

Centre Type	Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Acad	Prior attainment	2	2	2	2	3
Free	Prior attainment	6	6	6	6	6
FurE	Prior attainment	7	7	6	19	24
Indp	Prior attainment	29	30	28	27	25
Other	Prior attainment	9	14	12	20	21
SecComp	Prior attainment	3	2	2	2	2
SecMod	Prior attainment	1	2	1	1	2
SecSel	Prior attainment	5	4	3	2	3
Sixth	Prior attainment	5	5	5	8	9
Tert	Prior attainment	5	5	5	25	26
Acad	SEND	4	4	4	4	4
Free	SEND	1	2	1	1	1
FurE	SEND	98	98	98	98	99
Indp	SEND	98	98	98	98	98
Other	SEND	46	45	44	49	47
SecComp	SEND	0	0	0	1	1
SecMod	SEND	0	1	1	1	1
SecSel	SEND	0	1	0	0	0
Sixth	SEND	97	96	96	96	96
Tert	SEND	100	99	100	100	100
Acad	Deprivation	4	4	4	5	5
Free	Deprivation	2	2	1	1	1
FurE	Deprivation	98	98	98	98	99
Indp	Deprivation	98	98	98	98	98
Other	Deprivation	46	45	44	49	47
SecComp	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
SecMod	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
SecSel	Deprivation	0	1	1	1	1
Sixth	Deprivation	97	96	96	96	96
Tert	Deprivation	100	99	100	100	100

Table B1.4 Percentage of each centre type’s GCSE entries in each year with missing/unknown information on the prior attainment, SEND and deprivation variables in equalities dataset

Centre type	Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Acad	Prior attainment	11	11	10	9	9
Free	Prior attainment	18	15	14	13	13
FurE	Prior attainment	18	20	20	23	24
Indp	Prior attainment	58	56	57	57	58
Other	Prior attainment	23	21	21	21	21
SecComp	Prior attainment	12	12	11	10	10
SecMod	Prior attainment	11	11	10	10	10
SecSel	Prior attainment	11	11	11	10	10
Sixth	Prior attainment	19	16	15	13	18
Tert	Prior attainment	23	24	25	28	31
Acad	SEND	1	1	1	1	1
Free	SEND	3	3	2	2	2
FurE	SEND	79	77	82	79	77
Indp	SEND	93	93	92	92	92
Other	SEND	13	13	12	12	12
SecComp	SEND	1	1	1	1	1
SecMod	SEND	1	1	1	1	1
SecSel	SEND	1	0	0	1	1
Sixth	SEND	13	12	9	10	10
Tert	SEND	32	40	33	45	37
Acad	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
Free	Deprivation	3	3	2	2	2
FurE	Deprivation	79	77	82	79	77
Indp	Deprivation	93	93	92	92	92
Other	Deprivation	13	13	12	12	13
SecComp	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
SecMod	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
SecSel	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
Sixth	Deprivation	13	12	9	11	10
Tert	Deprivation	32	41	33	45	37

Centre type	Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Acad	Prior attainment	14	14	13	11	15
Free	Prior attainment	1	1	1	1	1
FurE	Prior attainment	2	2	2	6	8
Indp	Prior attainment	58	59	58	45	39
Other	Prior attainment	1	1	1	1	1
SecComp	Prior attainment	6	6	6	4	4
SecMod	Prior attainment	0	0	0	0	0
SecSel	Prior attainment	3	3	2	1	2
Sixth	Prior attainment	13	14	14	20	21
Tert	Prior attainment	2	2	2	10	10
Acad	SEND	4	5	5	5	5
Free	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
FurE	SEND	5	6	6	7	7
Indp	SEND	35	35	34	33	33
Other	SEND	1	1	1	1	1
SecComp	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
SecMod	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
SecSel	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
Sixth	SEND	47	46	47	46	47
Tert	SEND	8	8	8	8	8
Acad	Deprivation	5	5	5	5	5
Free	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
FurE	Deprivation	5	6	6	6	7
Indp	Deprivation	35	35	34	33	32
Other	Deprivation	1	1	1	1	1
SecComp	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
SecMod	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
SecSel	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
Sixth	Deprivation	47	46	47	46	47
Tert	Deprivation	8	8	8	8	8

Centre type	Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Acad	Prior attainment	46	45	45	45	11
Free	Prior attainment	1	1	1	1	1
FurE	Prior attainment	0	0	0	0	1
Indp	Prior attainment	20	21	22	22	77
Other	Prior attainment	2	2	2	2	2
SecComp	Prior attainment	28	27	27	27	7
SecMod	Prior attainment	1	1	1	1	0
SecSel	Prior attainment	2	2	2	2	0
Sixth	Prior attainment	0	0	0	0	0
Tert	Prior attainment	0	0	0	0	0
Acad	SEND	11	10	7	8	10
Free	SEND	1	1	0	0	0
FurE	SEND	1	2	2	2	2
Indp	SEND	77	78	84	81	79
Other	SEND	2	2	2	2	2
SecComp	SEND	7	6	4	5	6
SecMod	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
SecSel	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
Sixth	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
Tert	SEND	0	0	0	0	0
Acad	Deprivation	13	12	8	10	11
Free	Deprivation	1	1	0	0	0
FurE	Deprivation	1	2	2	2	2
Indp	Deprivation	75	76	82	79	78
Other	Deprivation	2	2	2	2	2
SecComp	Deprivation	8	7	5	6	6
SecMod	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
SecSel	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
Sixth	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0
Tert	Deprivation	0	0	0	0	0

Appendix B.2 - VTQ

Table B2.1 Percentage of Level 1/2 Technical Awards entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Ethnicity	4.8	3.8	3.4	3.1	3.8
FSM	3.0	2.0	1.6	1.0	2.2
Gender	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.1
IDACI	4.1	3.0	2.4	1.9	2.3
Prior attainment	23.1	21.1	18.9	19.7	20.8
SEND	4.2	3.1	2.3	1.8	2.2

Table B2.2 Percentage of Level 1/2 Technical Certificates entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Ethnicity	30.4	48.3	62.6	65.8	9.7
FSM	14.5	8.3	5.3	6.9	9.0
Gender	0.1	0.2	0.4	5.9	21.7
IDACI	30.0	48.3	62.4	65.4	9.1
Prior attainment	79.3	55.7	40.7	36.8	69.4
SEND	93.0	84.2	77.4	77.4	31.1

Table B2.3 Percentage of Level 3 Applied Generals entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Ethnicity	29.0	31.2	43.5	49.1	4.0
FSM	3.7	3.6	4.1	1.1	2.6
Gender	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
IDACI	28.3	30.3	42.5	48.3	2.8
Prior attainment	10.8	11.0	11.7	12.4	12.4
SEND	29.2	31.1	43.0	48.7	3.1

Table B2.4 Percentage of Level 3 Tech Level entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Ethnicity	41.2	43.8	53.6	57.3	4.8
FSM	6.1	5.9	2.3	3.5	3.7
Gender	4.3	0.0	0.8	0.5	2.6
IDACI	40.7	43.2	53.0	56.9	3.9
Prior attainment	33.4	27.1	16.3	19.1	21.1
SEND	62.4	59.9	58.4	63.8	12.5

Question 3

Appendix C - Descriptives

Accepted Answer

Appendix C.1 - GQ

Table C1.1 2018 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Centre type	0	0	0	0	0
Region	0	0	0	0	0
Gender	0	0	0	0	0
Prior attainment	7	7	6	7	8
Ethnicity	39	38	38	38	38
Major language	38	38	38	38	37
SEND	38	37	37	37	37
FSM eligibility	38	37	37	37	37
Deprivation	38	37	38	37	37

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure. ** WIRT and WROM merged with WOTH in this analysis.

Table C1.2 2019 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	178,475	3.46	1.37	23.06	76.40	97.78	62.97	64.02	10.68
Centre Type: Free schools	3,190	3.60	1.45	29.21	77.50	93.80	66.58	66.67	10.75
Centre Type: Further education establishment	9,110	3.00	1.29	10.93	66.18	92.81	58.97	59.55	8.77
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	56,705	4.18	1.30	44.29	89.27	69.89	69.22	70.22	12.29
Centre Type: Other	1,900	3.24	1.36	17.93	71.35	86.28	61.24	62.01	9.60
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	67,705	3.31	1.35	19.05	73.17	97.59	61.80	62.58	10.20
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	1,825	2.95	1.39	13.49	62.31	98.41	57.72	58.47	9.88
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	19,830	3.85	1.35	33.95	84.08	96.29	68.98	69.76	9.93
Centre Type: Sixth form college	76,875	3.44	1.35	21.80	76.30	94.83	62.06	62.89	10.03
Centre Type: Tertiary college	12,290	3.41	1.29	19.82	76.68	95.27	62.28	63.09	9.29
Region: East Midlands	34,030	3.39	1.35	20.78	74.98	95.08	62.71	63.47	10.48
Region: East of England	53,595	3.55	1.39	25.67	77.99	93.26	62.97	64.17	10.83
Region: London	73,070	3.60	1.41	27.71	78.40	91.66	64.04	65.26	11.24
Region: North East	15,530	3.49	1.32	22.46	77.73	94.22	62.97	63.91	10.51
Region: North West	55,090	3.51	1.35	23.78	77.78	95.51	63.33	64.12	10.55
Region: South East	79,340	3.62	1.39	27.78	79.12	90.66	63.81	64.50	11.11
Region: South West	42,975	3.54	1.39	25.53	77.56	92.51	62.97	64.02	10.91
Region: West Midlands	38,235	3.43	1.37	22.31	75.47	93.57	63.56	64.37	10.68
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	36,040	3.49	1.35	23.32	77.08	96.47	62.97	64.00	10.43
Gender: F	251,505	3.60	1.35	26.03	79.36	94.37	64.32	65.10	10.96
Gender: M	176,350	3.45	1.41	23.89	75.21	91.55	62.28	63.19	10.58
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	66,520	2.43	1.18	3.09	48.79	100.00	50.17	49.39	3.60
Prior attainment: Low	78,805	2.90	1.17	6.57	65.72	100.00	57.02	56.92	1.75
Prior attainment: Medium	84,140	3.33	1.16	13.68	78.06	100.00	62.64	62.59	1.70
Prior attainment: High	79,315	3.84	1.12	27.53	88.68	100.00	68.59	68.66	1.94
Prior attainment: Very high	90,015	4.69	1.02	61.96	97.18	100.00	78.22	79.66	5.96
Prior attainment: Unknown	29,110	3.96	1.40	38.70	84.28	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ethnicity: ABAN	5,135	3.27	1.35	17.96	72.54	96.53	62.97	63.81	10.13
Ethnicity: AIND	12,795	3.55	1.41	26.76	77.42	97.56	65.87	66.61	11.50
Ethnicity: AOTH	7,360	3.37	1.42	22.97	73.42	96.87	65.11	65.69	10.86
Ethnicity: APKN	10,215	3.16	1.39	17.37	68.70	96.31	62.06	62.68	10.40
Ethnicity: BAFR	11,165	3.16	1.35	15.71	69.45	94.80	61.12	61.82	9.95
Ethnicity: BCRB	2,640	3.09	1.25	12.60	69.04	97.96	59.60	60.43	9.21
Ethnicity: BOTH	1,715	3.19	1.38	17.19	69.35	95.22	60.67	61.59	10.30
Ethnicity: CHNE	1,900	4.00	1.39	39.58	85.21	94.79	70.67	70.72	11.84
Ethnicity: MOTH	5,680	3.51	1.40	25.48	76.49	95.18	63.98	64.91	11.12
Ethnicity: MWAS	3,985	3.66	1.38	28.57	80.24	97.11	65.44	66.15	11.40
Ethnicity: MWBA	1,510	3.33	1.39	19.81	72.23	97.02	62.97	63.54	10.81
Ethnicity: MWBC	2,755	3.27	1.32	16.78	72.54	98.51	61.23	61.83	9.99
Ethnicity: OOTH	5,035	3.37	1.38	21.39	74.02	94.14	62.97	63.83	10.70
Ethnicity: WBRI	178,340	3.48	1.36	23.19	76.83	98.62	63.33	64.03	10.54
Ethnicity: WIRI	1,440	3.68	1.31	28.85	81.48	98.61	64.91	65.45	10.69
Ethnicity: WOTH **	12,745	3.47	1.40	24.34	75.95	95.00	62.97	64.15	10.95
Ethnicity: Unknown	163,490	3.68	1.37	28.97	80.50	85.74	63.81	64.78	11.17
Major language: English	225,595	3.47	1.37	23.24	76.52	98.06	63.41	64.18	10.66
Major language: Not English	41,515	3.31	1.39	20.39	72.39	96.31	62.68	63.55	10.71
Major language: Unknown	160,800	3.68	1.37	29.06	80.60	85.56	63.81	64.79	11.17
SEND: No SEND	257,435	3.45	1.37	22.85	75.99	97.79	63.41	64.20	10.65
SEND: SEND	10,865	3.36	1.40	21.20	73.06	97.42	60.77	61.35	10.69
SEND: Unknown	159,605	3.68	1.37	29.13	80.63	85.50	63.81	64.79	11.18
FSM: Not FSM	254,785	3.46	1.37	23.17	76.26	97.81	63.41	64.25	10.67
FSM: FSM	13,520	3.14	1.35	15.50	68.65	97.11	59.83	61.05	10.03
FSM: Unknown	159,605	3.68	1.37	29.13	80.63	85.50	63.81	64.79	11.18
Deprivation: Very low	55,420	3.69	1.35	28.85	81.32	98.16	65.28	66.07	10.86
Deprivation: Low	54,250	3.53	1.36	24.62	77.94	98.04	63.66	64.62	10.59
Deprivation: Medium	53,620	3.45	1.37	22.67	76.13	98.07	63.41	64.15	10.65
Deprivation: High	52,795	3.33	1.38	20.16	73.17	97.72	62.32	63.15	10.57
Deprivation: Very high	51,690	3.21	1.37	17.19	70.42	96.83	61.58	62.27	10.21
Deprivation: Unknown	160,140	3.68	1.37	29.09	80.60	85.54	63.66	64.78	11.17

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure. ** WIRT and WROM merged with WOTH in this analysis.

Table C1.3 2020 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	177,210	3.97	1.26	35.32	87.8	98	62.91	63.94	10.81
Centre Type: Free schools	3,275	4.04	1.34	40.71	86.79	93.93	66.31	66.86	10.63
Centre Type: Further education establishment	9,830	3.6	1.22	23.15	82.57	94.18	58.15	59.07	8.91
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	55,315	4.66	1.11	59.6	96.29	72.35	69.76	70.74	12.28
Centre Type: Other	1,880	3.89	1.22	31.08	87.39	88.29	61.98	62.91	9.85
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	66,790	3.86	1.25	31.64	86.32	97.64	61.31	62.28	10.22
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	1,865	3.64	1.31	25.67	80.92	98.71	58.61	59.22	10.61
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	19,825	4.27	1.24	46.02	91.5	97.34	68.86	70.01	10.22
Centre Type: Sixth form college	77,965	3.82	1.26	30.49	85.41	95.21	61.85	62.7	10.19
Centre Type: Tertiary college	12,475	3.81	1.21	28.66	86.48	95.07	61.93	62.71	9.51
Region: East Midlands	34,690	3.89	1.28	33.36	86.09	95.59	62.05	63.24	10.65
Region: East of England	52,945	4.02	1.28	37.27	88.13	93.97	62.91	64.12	11.04
Region: London	74,175	4.1	1.27	40.03	89.21	91.88	63.96	65.26	11.43
Region: North East	15,640	3.95	1.23	34.28	88.4	94.24	62.6	63.44	10.49
Region: North West	54,785	3.96	1.25	34.91	87.75	95.99	62.91	63.86	10.7
Region: South East	79,040	4.09	1.27	39.95	89.26	90.74	63.71	64.61	11.27
Region: South West	41,730	4.03	1.26	37.62	88.49	94.61	63.32	64.36	10.97
Region: West Midlands	37,990	3.93	1.26	34.26	87.18	95.39	63.11	64.12	10.87
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	35,435	3.93	1.25	34.03	87.29	96.77	62.69	63.71	10.62
Gender: F	252,420	4.09	1.24	39.08	90.04	94.88	63.71	64.7	11.12
Gender: M	174,005	3.89	1.3	34.01	85.55	92.31	62.53	63.61	10.82
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	67,800	2.91	1.03	5.5	67.34	100	50.25	49.38	3.63
Prior attainment: Low	78,770	3.39	1.04	12.39	82.5	100	56.9	56.85	1.66
Prior attainment: Medium	81,570	3.82	1.05	24.84	90.05	100	62.28	62.36	1.6
Prior attainment: High	87,655	4.36	1.01	47.36	95.94	100	68.58	68.65	2.16
Prior attainment: Very high	84,330	5.19	0.84	82.27	99.42	100	78.62	80.4	6.45
Prior attainment: Unknown	26,310	4.35	1.26	50.14	91.61	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	5,375	3.76	1.25	28.63	84.8	96.22	62.55	63.31	10.19
Ethnicity: AIND	13,215	4.1	1.26	40.37	89.43	97.54	65.72	67.01	11.9
Ethnicity: AOTH	7,805	3.91	1.28	35.07	85.97	96.58	65.63	66.12	11.2
Ethnicity: APKN	11,425	3.68	1.27	27.34	82.32	96.96	62.13	62.74	10.62
Ethnicity: BAFR	11,930	3.7	1.24	26.77	83.84	95.12	61.04	61.93	10.13
Ethnicity: BCRB	2,235	3.66	1.19	24.11	84.26	96.74	59.39	59.9	9.44
Ethnicity: BOTH	1,780	3.69	1.27	25.97	83.25	95.39	60.52	61.2	10.07
Ethnicity: CHNE	1,815	4.49	1.23	54.8	93.38	96.14	70.49	70.84	11.76
Ethnicity: MOTH	5,775	3.97	1.26	35.89	87.77	95.34	63.96	64.83	10.98
Ethnicity: MWAS	4,345	4.14	1.28	41.87	89.16	97.24	65.22	66.64	11.43
Ethnicity: MWBA	1,600	3.85	1.26	31.31	85.88	96.81	61.93	62.78	10.32
Ethnicity: MWBC	2,680	3.77	1.25	29.28	85.03	98.36	60.9	61.65	10.28
Ethnicity: OOTH	5,050	3.93	1.26	34.03	86.95	95.35	62.8	63.59	10.55
Ethnicity: WBRI	172,835	3.99	1.26	35.91	88.2	98.8	62.91	63.89	10.67
Ethnicity: WIRI	1,410	4.17	1.21	39.46	92.26	97.94	63.96	65.29	10.72
Ethnicity: WOTH **	13,295	4.04	1.27	38.13	88.72	96.02	63.11	64.17	11.09
Ethnicity: Unknown	163,865	4.09	1.27	39.86	89.13	87.18	63.54	64.7	11.34
Major language: English	221,940	3.98	1.26	35.68	87.91	98.23	63.07	64.05	10.79
Major language: Not English	43,255	3.87	1.27	32.75	85.97	96.64	62.91	63.77	10.96
Major language: Unknown	161,240	4.09	1.27	39.98	89.2	87.03	63.54	64.73	11.35
SEND: No SEND	254,755	3.97	1.26	35.47	87.74	97.94	63.11	64.12	10.81
SEND: SEND	11,905	3.77	1.28	29.23	84.32	98	60.52	61.34	10.71
SEND: Unknown	159,770	4.1	1.27	40.05	89.23	86.97	63.59	64.74	11.35
FSM: Not FSM	251,265	3.98	1.26	35.8	87.9	97.98	63.27	64.22	10.83
FSM: FSM	15,395	3.64	1.25	25.27	82.51	97.4	59.65	60.35	9.87
FSM: Unknown	159,770	4.1	1.27	40.05	89.23	86.97	63.59	64.74	11.35
Deprivation: Very low	53,595	4.14	1.25	41.14	90.33	98.43	64.85	65.86	11.05
Deprivation: Low	54,890	4.04	1.26	37.88	88.88	98.3	63.71	64.8	10.91
Deprivation: Medium	53,790	3.96	1.26	34.96	87.65	98.22	62.91	63.96	10.73
Deprivation: High	52,385	3.9	1.27	33.18	86.56	97.71	62.28	63.33	10.72
Deprivation: Very high	51,560	3.75	1.26	28.51	84.36	97.04	61.15	61.92	10.24
Deprivation: Unknown	160,215	4.1	1.27	40.01	89.22	86.99	63.59	64.74	11.35

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure. ** WIRT and WROM merged with WOTH in this analysis.

Table C1.4 2021 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	188,980	4.1	1.32	41.2	88.42	97.94	62.61	63.64	10.81
Centre Type: Free schools	3,650	4.15	1.38	44.7	87.32	93.86	66.22	66.69	10.61
Centre Type: Further education establishment	11,190	3.69	1.31	28.3	82.68	80.87	57.67	58.65	9.06
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	57,360	4.92	1.11	69.3	96.87	73.46	68.65	70.26	12.21
Centre Type: Other	2,125	4.03	1.32	37.61	88.39	80.49	62.57	63.1	9.87
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	72,005	4	1.32	37.54	87.02	98.25	60.86	61.98	10.24
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	2,025	3.78	1.36	30.55	83.39	98.76	57.39	58.47	9.89
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	20,285	4.46	1.27	54.15	92.36	97.7	68.65	69.91	9.95
Centre Type: Sixth form college	81,350	3.9	1.3	34.34	85.94	91.58	61.79	62.61	10.05
Centre Type: Tertiary college	13,830	3.9	1.29	33.33	86.46	75.31	60.86	62.01	9.47
Region: East Midlands	36,235	4.05	1.34	40.06	87.33	94.61	62.23	63.18	10.45
Region: East of England	55,380	4.17	1.32	43.5	89.13	93.56	62.61	63.67	10.93
Region: London	80,150	4.26	1.34	46.66	89.62	91.35	64.05	65.16	11.39
Region: North East	16,230	4.03	1.29	37.75	88.19	92.91	61.96	62.98	10.48
Region: North West	57,410	4.08	1.31	40.23	88.24	92.31	62.81	63.61	10.65
Region: South East	83,785	4.22	1.33	45.44	89.6	90.36	63.29	64.16	11.27
Region: South West	45,185	4.16	1.34	43.54	88.49	93.53	62.81	63.93	10.98
Region: West Midlands	41,240	4.06	1.31	39.75	87.91	94.87	63.1	63.92	10.84
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	37,185	4.08	1.31	40.38	88.22	92.52	62.61	63.6	10.6
Gender: F	265,870	4.25	1.28	45.59	90.84	93.07	63.62	64.46	11.08
Gender: M	186,925	4.01	1.38	39.13	85.8	91.72	62.23	63.32	10.79
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	67,815	2.99	1.16	8.51	68.75	100	49.79	48.88	3.65
Prior attainment: Low	83,910	3.52	1.15	18.15	83.02	100	56.56	56.44	1.74
Prior attainment: Medium	84,690	3.97	1.13	32.64	90.42	100	61.96	61.97	1.59
Prior attainment: High	91,575	4.52	1.06	55.42	96.02	100	68.02	68.23	2.14
Prior attainment: Very high	90,900	5.3	0.84	84.91	99.3	100	77.92	79.84	6.23
Prior attainment: Unknown	33,910	4.41	1.33	52.49	91.03	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	6,035	3.94	1.35	36.13	85.55	97.23	62.81	63.66	10.65
Ethnicity: AIND	14,555	4.32	1.31	48.91	90.72	97.74	66.6	67.31	11.78
Ethnicity: AOTH	8,570	4.12	1.36	43.13	87.08	97.55	64.89	65.7	11.23
Ethnicity: APKN	11,925	3.83	1.36	33.95	83.32	97.84	62.23	62.92	10.42
Ethnicity: BAFR	12,925	3.81	1.31	31.66	84.42	95.34	60.86	61.74	9.93
Ethnicity: BCRB	2,440	3.75	1.27	28.44	84.84	96.31	58.86	59.73	9.54
Ethnicity: BOTH	2,020	3.87	1.34	34.22	84.42	93.57	60.28	61.16	9.96
Ethnicity: CHNE	1,990	4.56	1.26	57.01	93.06	96.83	69.7	70.58	11.77
Ethnicity: MOTH	6,575	4.11	1.33	41.35	88.26	95.83	63.43	64.47	11.13
Ethnicity: MWAS	4,840	4.3	1.32	48.45	90.21	96.61	65.36	66.43	11.47
Ethnicity: MWBA	1,900	3.97	1.3	36.4	86.27	96.63	60.86	62.72	10.47
Ethnicity: MWBC	2,810	3.89	1.3	33.14	86.22	98.01	60.86	61.37	9.96
Ethnicity: OOTH	5,920	4.02	1.36	39.09	86.66	96.4	61.96	63.12	10.77
Ethnicity: WBRI	180,385	4.13	1.31	41.83	88.87	98.64	62.61	63.45	10.66
Ethnicity: WIRI	1,480	4.32	1.22	47.06	92.57	97.5	64.23	65.16	10.56
Ethnicity: WOTH **	14,780	4.15	1.33	43.27	88.83	96.3	62.81	63.76	10.88
Ethnicity: Unknown	173,645	4.23	1.33	45.59	89.51	83.73	63.43	64.55	11.26
Major language: English	235,985	4.12	1.32	41.66	88.64	98.09	62.81	63.7	10.76
Major language: Not English	46,645	4.02	1.35	39.35	86.5	97.23	62.61	63.64	10.99
Major language: Unknown	170,165	4.23	1.33	45.67	89.56	83.48	63.43	64.58	11.27
SEND: No SEND	270,735	4.11	1.32	41.53	88.48	97.92	62.81	63.82	10.78
SEND: SEND	13,265	3.88	1.38	35.39	84.1	97.98	60.08	60.9	10.75
SEND: Unknown	168,795	4.24	1.33	45.76	89.58	83.41	63.43	64.59	11.28
FSM: Not FSM	264,135	4.13	1.32	42.08	88.74	97.93	63.1	63.95	10.82
FSM: FSM	19,870	3.73	1.36	30.22	82.17	97.84	59.41	60.2	9.94
FSM: Unknown	168,795	4.24	1.33	45.76	89.58	83.41	63.43	64.59	11.28
Deprivation: Very low	57,235	4.31	1.28	48.08	91.15	98.11	64.53	65.56	10.98
Deprivation: Low	59,335	4.19	1.3	44.12	89.92	98.24	63.43	64.32	10.83
Deprivation: Medium	56,880	4.12	1.31	41.62	88.73	98.05	62.81	63.78	10.76
Deprivation: High	55,570	4.01	1.34	38.4	86.61	97.87	61.96	62.88	10.71
Deprivation: Very high	54,505	3.86	1.34	33.46	84.7	97.32	60.86	61.72	10.29
Deprivation: Unknown	169,275	4.24	1.33	45.75	89.58	83.44	63.43	64.59	11.28

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure. ** WIRT and WROM merged with WOTH in this analysis.

Table C1.5 2022 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	199,115	3.84	1.4	33.52	82.95	97.28	61.84	62.76	10.96
Centre Type: Free schools	3,795	4	1.43	41.06	84.57	93.94	67.07	67.26	10.78
Centre Type: Further education establishment	12,060	3.17	1.38	16.14	69.64	75.96	57.18	58.59	9.76
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	58,045	4.54	1.27	56.37	92.75	74.95	69.65	70.34	11.61
Centre Type: Other	2,250	3.58	1.4	25.67	78.51	79.18	61.31	62.39	9.99
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	74,540	3.69	1.38	28.75	80.71	98.04	60.49	61.17	10.45
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	2,165	3.51	1.39	24.05	77.42	98.38	57.18	58.54	10.47
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	21,425	4.27	1.33	47.29	89.67	96.89	67.98	68.59	9.77
Centre Type: Sixth form college	85,300	3.76	1.4	31.05	81.78	90.97	61.36	62.11	10.65
Centre Type: Tertiary college	13,585	3.65	1.37	27.23	80.67	74.12	60.7	61.37	9.73
Region: East Midlands	36,955	3.73	1.41	30.5	80.75	93.75	61	62.17	10.71
Region: East of England	58,495	3.89	1.41	35.38	83.6	93.27	61.84	62.99	11.18
Region: London	84,660	3.98	1.43	38.85	84.33	91.19	63.43	64.33	11.38
Region: North East	17,215	3.75	1.36	30.23	82.41	93.43	61.84	62.62	10.9
Region: North West	61,010	3.86	1.38	33.88	83.7	91.58	62.25	62.97	10.86
Region: South East	86,770	3.96	1.41	37.81	84.71	89.79	62.71	63.49	11.48
Region: South West	46,120	3.89	1.4	35.41	83.81	93.86	62.71	63.28	11.15
Region: West Midlands	42,500	3.79	1.4	32.2	81.95	93.43	62.71	63.49	10.99
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	38,555	3.79	1.39	31.79	82.4	93.58	62.26	62.94	10.85
Gender: F	275,620	3.95	1.38	36.79	85.03	92.6	63.29	63.94	11.22
Gender: M	196,650	3.78	1.43	32.76	81.26	91.6	61.36	62.41	11
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	71,740	2.74	1.24	6.19	59.4	100	48.6	47.71	3.88
Prior attainment: Low	87,130	3.28	1.23	13.77	75.72	100	55.73	55.68	1.74
Prior attainment: Medium	87,925	3.72	1.21	25.14	84.7	100	61.36	61.51	1.63
Prior attainment: High	96,055	4.25	1.15	43.9	92.63	100	67.98	67.93	2.26
Prior attainment: Very high	92,500	5.06	0.96	75.82	98.45	100	78.39	79.49	5.68
Prior attainment: Unknown	36,925	4.01	1.46	40.55	84.06	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	6,590	3.66	1.43	29.86	79.65	97.42	62.26	63.07	10.86
Ethnicity: AIND	15,700	4.08	1.4	42.04	85.49	97.45	66.2	66.45	11.47
Ethnicity: AOTH	9,335	3.77	1.45	33.93	80.2	97.57	63.96	64.39	11.09
Ethnicity: APKN	12,190	3.54	1.45	26.79	76.49	97.94	61	61.67	10.9
Ethnicity: BAFR	15,000	3.55	1.39	25.44	77.75	95.15	59.89	60.58	10.23
Ethnicity: BCRB	2,620	3.45	1.37	21.78	76.43	95.16	57.18	58.88	9.75
Ethnicity: BOTH	2,105	3.44	1.42	22.39	75.33	94.44	58.29	59.49	10.08
Ethnicity: CHNE	2,000	4.37	1.35	50.85	90.44	95.65	68.89	69.23	11.63
Ethnicity: MOTH	7,095	3.85	1.4	34.32	82.8	95.36	62.71	63.55	11.27
Ethnicity: MWAS	5,315	4.04	1.39	40.23	86.4	96.41	63.96	64.92	11.33
Ethnicity: MWBA	2,155	3.78	1.4	32.13	81.89	96.38	61	61.92	10.28
Ethnicity: MWBC	3,050	3.63	1.41	26.4	79.3	96.95	59.75	60.44	10.47
Ethnicity: OOTH	6,660	3.73	1.41	31.15	80.67	96.11	61.36	62.32	10.79
Ethnicity: WBRI	184,495	3.85	1.38	33.35	83.58	98.48	61.84	62.66	10.77
Ethnicity: WIRI	1,455	4.17	1.33	43.48	88.87	97.18	65.16	64.92	11.31
Ethnicity: WOTH **	16,720	3.84	1.42	34.29	82.66	96.46	62.16	63.02	11.14
Ethnicity: Unknown	179,795	3.98	1.42	38.33	84.69	83.07	63.43	64.22	11.53
Major language: English	247,270	3.84	1.39	33.44	83.2	97.85	61.84	62.86	10.88
Major language: Not English	49,220	3.72	1.44	31.56	80.06	97.31	61.84	62.62	11.09
Major language: Unknown	175,785	3.98	1.42	38.46	84.76	82.78	63.43	64.27	11.54
SEND: No SEND	282,735	3.83	1.39	33.29	82.83	97.72	62.26	62.97	10.89
SEND: SEND	15,340	3.68	1.44	29.62	79.45	97.58	59.19	59.96	10.95
SEND: Unknown	174,200	3.98	1.42	38.55	84.83	82.72	63.43	64.3	11.55
FSM: Not FSM	274,670	3.86	1.39	34.01	83.32	97.72	62.26	63.12	10.9
FSM: FSM	23,405	3.41	1.41	22.4	74.81	97.65	58.29	59.28	10.46
FSM: Unknown	174,200	3.98	1.42	38.55	84.83	82.72	63.43	64.3	11.55
Deprivation: Very low	61,295	4.08	1.34	40.29	87.55	97.9	63.66	64.4	10.95
Deprivation: Low	61,245	3.94	1.37	36.19	84.99	97.91	62.65	63.41	10.94
Deprivation: Medium	59,215	3.83	1.38	32.88	83.1	97.96	61.84	62.75	10.81
Deprivation: High	58,240	3.71	1.41	30.06	80.58	97.9	61.36	62.21	10.86
Deprivation: Very high	57,640	3.53	1.42	25.51	76.62	96.85	60.46	61.17	10.75
Deprivation: Unknown	174,645	3.98	1.42	38.52	84.82	82.76	63.43	64.29	11.54

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure. ** WIRT and WROM merged with WOTH in this analysis.

Table C1.6 2018 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	1,972,305	4.8	2.06	21.48	71.74	88.87	51.72	51.62	16.39
Centre Type: Free schools	35,625	4.77	2.07	20.95	71.61	82.23	50.33	49.89	15.65
Centre Type: Further education establishment	3,630	3.22	1.78	4.24	41.03	81.54	44.73	44.69	13.65
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	159,270	6.38	1.9	49.97	92.48	42.41	59.57	59.11	15.56
Centre Type: Other	33,885	3.35	2.09	8.83	41.28	76.81	45.21	44.88	16.2
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	1,109,835	4.66	2.01	18.88	69.95	87.74	50.75	50.57	15.81
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	51,995	4.21	1.89	12.06	62.9	89.05	47.48	47.01	15.05
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	80,760	6.74	1.62	56.96	97.21	88.82	68.94	69.2	11.44
Centre Type: Sixth form college	1,750	4.2	1.94	12.36	62.59	80.89	50.84	50.51	14.76
Centre Type: Tertiary college	1,375	3.97	1.88	10.04	57.71	76.64	48.12	47.61	14.1
Region: East Midlands	295,880	4.7	2.03	19.62	70.41	87.53	51.38	51.19	16.21
Region: East of England	401,995	4.88	2.07	22.69	72.88	87.31	51.8	51.48	16.56
Region: London	533,730	5.12	2.14	27.54	75.43	80.4	52.64	52.64	16.38
Region: North East	143,845	4.68	2	18.87	70.64	90.55	52.18	52.19	15.91
Region: North West	466,025	4.72	2.06	20.4	70.51	87.65	51.93	51.96	15.92
Region: South East	583,030	5.02	2.1	25.59	74.7	85.67	52.94	52.53	16.45
Region: South West	334,645	4.87	2.05	22.3	73	86.85	52.18	51.99	16.2
Region: West Midlands	360,745	4.67	2.06	19.76	69.19	86.8	50.71	50.81	16.58
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	330,530	4.63	2.05	18.91	69.32	88.31	50.08	49.86	16.45
Gender: F	1,743,310	5.09	2.04	25.57	76.52	86.62	51.84	51.76	16.32
Gender: M	1,707,020	4.61	2.09	19.34	67.87	85.7	51.93	51.67	16.38
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	531,350	2.99	1.45	1.43	32.68	100	29.55	27.62	7.5
Prior attainment: Low	564,320	3.95	1.53	5.01	60.49	100	41.83	41.73	2.78
Prior attainment: Medium	595,475	4.69	1.6	12.45	77.92	100	50.59	50.54	2.42
Prior attainment: High	624,175	5.53	1.64	27.43	89.72	100	59.27	59.35	2.77
Prior attainment: Very high	657,630	6.72	1.63	57.21	96.82	100	71.85	73.57	7.41
Prior attainment: Unknown	477,470	4.72	2.35	24.83	66.36	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	55,460	4.98	2.04	24.27	74.98	77.62	49.08	49.16	16.08
Ethnicity: AIND	98,705	5.69	2.08	37.02	83.76	83.84	55.05	55.04	16.49
Ethnicity: AOTH	59,970	5.48	2.11	33.74	81.02	78.77	54.53	54.13	16.43
Ethnicity: APKN	136,700	4.65	2.04	19.27	68.88	84.33	47.06	47.3	16.2
Ethnicity: BAFR	117,260	4.83	2	21.33	72.8	74.05	49.83	49.85	15.64
Ethnicity: BCRB	42,260	4.07	1.9	10.97	58.36	88.38	45.78	45.82	15.1
Ethnicity: BOTH	22,710	4.42	1.99	15.94	64.92	73.22	46.63	46.54	15.45
Ethnicity: CHNE	12,620	6.38	1.96	50.9	91.15	78.83	62.15	61.34	16.29
Ethnicity: MOTH	58,745	5.04	2.11	25.9	74.88	83	53.41	53.03	16.39
Ethnicity: MWAS	36,920	5.35	2.14	31.83	78.75	87.92	56.33	55.54	16.84
Ethnicity: MWBA	18,890	4.72	2.06	20.46	70.89	82.49	51.46	51.1	16.36
Ethnicity: MWBC	42,930	4.27	1.99	14.2	62.75	91.91	48.83	48.96	15.81
Ethnicity: OOTH	52,175	4.87	2.14	23.7	71.92	69.99	49.67	49.61	16.12
Ethnicity: WBRI	2,288,915	4.74	2.03	20.12	71.17	93.43	52.05	51.9	16.21
Ethnicity: WIRI	11,100	5.35	2.07	30.53	80.12	86.1	57.33	57.14	15.7
Ethnicity: WIRT	480	2.92	1.69	2.09	33.19	77.66	40.14	39.38	15.17
Ethnicity: WOTH	160,390	4.76	2.16	22.32	69.95	66.2	49.83	49.97	17.19
Ethnicity: WROM	4,945	2.24	1.77	2.12	22.13	50.6	35.61	34.86	15.61
Ethnicity: Unknown	229,250	5.7	2.24	39.57	81.66	45.39	56.07	55.43	16.79
Major language: English	2,726,510	4.78	2.04	20.96	71.62	92.25	52.1	51.95	16.26
Major language: Not English	526,760	4.82	2.13	22.87	71.15	72.21	49.08	49.08	16.51
Major language: Unknown	197,150	5.87	2.21	42.68	83.82	39.2	57.61	56.91	16.61
SEND: No SEND	2,897,655	4.97	2	23.05	75.46	89.83	52.94	53.08	15.54
SEND: SEND	360,330	3.31	1.93	6.94	40	82.23	37.46	38.37	17.02
SEND: Unknown	192,435	5.9	2.2	43.19	84.19	38.33	58.03	57.22	16.58
FSM: Not FSM	2,901,685	4.92	2.03	22.76	74.02	89.46	52.6	52.46	16.17
FSM: FSM	356,300	3.75	1.95	9.12	51.3	85.12	44.07	44	15.63
FSM: Unknown	192,435	5.9	2.2	43.19	84.19	38.33	58.03	57.22	16.58
Deprivation: Very low	695,370	5.45	1.98	30.87	82.86	92.09	56.38	55.99	15.87
Deprivation: Low	675,365	5.07	2	24.55	76.97	91.7	53.79	53.45	16.09
Deprivation: Medium	647,115	4.75	2.02	20.2	71.25	89.62	51.3	51.18	16.2
Deprivation: High	630,160	4.44	2.02	16.39	65.5	86.52	48.91	48.96	16.14
Deprivation: Very high	604,450	4.12	2	12.85	59.1	84.51	47.02	47.04	15.74
Deprivation: Unknown	197,965	5.86	2.21	42.43	83.64	39.07	57.52	56.78	16.65

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure.

Table C1.7 2019 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	2,032,875	4.82	2.06	21.75	72.11	89.33	51.93	51.78	16.41
Centre Type: Free schools	39,300	4.74	2.08	20.74	70.74	84.61	50	49.59	15.98
Centre Type: Further education establishment	4,020	3.08	1.72	4.08	36.38	80.23	43.67	44.18	13.66
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	166,420	6.32	1.93	48.88	91.89	43.6	59.18	58.67	15.92
Centre Type: Other	35,810	3.39	2.12	9.63	41.74	79.2	45.39	45.11	16.57
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	1,141,315	4.67	2.02	18.94	69.98	88.36	50.75	50.61	15.77
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	52,180	4.25	1.89	12.34	63.37	89.01	47.48	47.3	14.81
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	82,575	6.78	1.63	58.27	97.16	89.06	69.34	69.6	11.31
Centre Type: Sixth form college	1,565	4.09	2.03	12.45	60.09	83.52	50.54	50.73	14.33
Centre Type: Tertiary college	1,510	4.07	2.02	11.04	60.58	76.46	48.49	49.32	14.66
Region: East Midlands	305,755	4.71	2.03	19.86	70.61	88.41	51.3	50.97	16.4
Region: East of England	413,260	4.88	2.07	22.62	72.78	87.99	51.8	51.71	16.59
Region: London	551,640	5.14	2.16	28.02	75.68	80.6	52.81	52.83	16.31
Region: North East	146,360	4.63	2	18.04	69.68	91	51.93	51.84	16.02
Region: North West	478,955	4.72	2.07	20.51	70.42	87.82	51.93	51.87	15.91
Region: South East	603,380	5.03	2.1	25.42	74.97	86.23	53.2	52.88	16.37
Region: South West	346,540	4.87	2.06	22.33	73.04	88.15	51.97	51.88	16.44
Region: West Midlands	376,600	4.71	2.06	20.29	69.97	87.37	51.05	50.96	16.51
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	335,085	4.68	2.06	19.62	69.98	88.66	50.33	50.22	16.42
Gender: F	1,797,875	5.1	2.05	25.84	76.63	87.13	51.8	51.75	16.31
Gender: M	1,759,565	4.62	2.09	19.43	68.15	86.25	52.1	51.9	16.42
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	551,875	3	1.46	1.51	33.04	100	29.64	27.75	7.51
Prior attainment: Low	583,650	3.95	1.54	5.22	60.55	100	41.97	41.83	2.77
Prior attainment: Medium	617,525	4.69	1.61	12.55	77.84	100	50.67	50.62	2.42
Prior attainment: High	645,500	5.53	1.66	27.49	89.6	100	59.32	59.41	2.77
Prior attainment: Very high	685,690	6.74	1.64	57.39	96.92	100	71.85	73.66	7.49
Prior attainment: Unknown	473,335	4.75	2.35	25.18	67.08	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	57,555	5.1	2.05	26.32	76.49	80.68	49.46	49.97	16.4
Ethnicity: AIND	104,515	5.76	2.09	38.95	84.18	83.86	56.47	55.9	16.65
Ethnicity: AOTH	62,245	5.55	2.11	34.98	81.78	80.42	54.61	54.61	16.25
Ethnicity: APKN	139,880	4.7	2.06	20.31	69.57	85.62	47.53	47.54	16.13
Ethnicity: BAFR	124,490	4.82	2.02	21.47	72.37	75.45	49.42	49.37	15.56
Ethnicity: BCRB	44,435	4.03	1.89	10.5	57.77	87.51	45.47	45.73	14.88
Ethnicity: BOTH	23,810	4.42	2.01	16.09	64.61	72.11	46.93	46.87	15.56
Ethnicity: CHNE	13,700	6.41	1.96	51.47	91.55	81.18	63.33	62.8	16.6
Ethnicity: MOTH	64,575	5.03	2.13	25.96	74.56	83.63	53.07	52.76	16.41
Ethnicity: MWAS	40,805	5.38	2.15	32.25	79.15	88.63	56.33	55.56	17.09
Ethnicity: MWBA	20,730	4.82	2.03	21.46	72.28	84.4	51.05	51.41	15.84
Ethnicity: MWBC	45,075	4.28	1.98	13.91	63.05	91.34	48.83	48.66	15.52
Ethnicity: OOTH	57,645	4.88	2.15	24.09	72.3	71.93	50.63	50.18	16.39
Ethnicity: WBRI	2,328,905	4.75	2.03	20.14	71.35	93.81	52.18	52.02	16.21
Ethnicity: WIRI	11,265	5.36	2.03	30.58	80.48	88.04	57.43	56.83	15.92
Ethnicity: WIRT	735	3.46	1.94	7.35	45.03	86.94	46.76	45.75	16.31
Ethnicity: WOTH	172,665	4.73	2.17	21.94	69.52	68.05	49.96	49.91	16.98
Ethnicity: WROM	5,660	2.32	1.77	1.93	23.53	53.73	34.55	33.85	15.71
Ethnicity: Unknown	238,880	5.68	2.23	38.94	81.58	47.35	55.49	55.1	16.84
Major language: English	2,805,480	4.79	2.05	21.08	71.81	92.57	52.18	52.05	16.26
Major language: Not English	547,355	4.85	2.15	23.58	71.41	73.58	49.37	49.4	16.6
Major language: Unknown	204,745	5.84	2.21	41.89	83.65	41.19	56.92	56.46	16.72
SEND: No SEND	2,982,685	4.99	2.01	23.29	75.63	90.09	53.11	53.25	15.49
SEND: SEND	377,835	3.36	1.94	7.28	41.05	84.41	37.63	38.57	17.3
SEND: Unknown	197,055	5.88	2.2	42.71	84.18	39.75	57.38	56.89	16.73
FSM: Not FSM	2,952,855	4.94	2.04	23.14	74.46	89.87	52.81	52.68	16.17
FSM: FSM	407,670	3.78	1.96	9.52	52.05	86.42	44.29	44.24	15.62
FSM: Unknown	197,055	5.88	2.2	42.71	84.18	39.75	57.38	56.89	16.73
Deprivation: Very low	716,505	5.46	1.98	30.98	83.05	92.19	56.6	56.25	15.81
Deprivation: Low	697,870	5.08	2.01	24.73	77.08	92.03	53.92	53.69	16.11
Deprivation: Medium	668,550	4.76	2.03	20.45	71.4	90.02	51.38	51.31	16.25
Deprivation: High	646,725	4.45	2.03	16.63	65.62	87	49	48.94	16.02
Deprivation: Very high	625,530	4.15	2.01	13.18	59.6	85.54	47.02	47.01	15.79
Deprivation: Unknown	202,395	5.85	2.21	42.04	83.68	40.43	56.97	56.5	16.79

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure.

Table C1.8 2020 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	2,086,520	5.2	1.99	26.67	79.62	90.09	51.76	51.66	16.42
Centre Type: Free schools	40,915	5.16	1.98	25.86	79.15	86.15	49.33	49.16	15.84
Centre Type: Further education establishment	4,735	3.69	1.78	7.48	50.58	80	43.73	44.4	14.23
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	170,310	6.78	1.74	58.58	96.4	43.19	58.55	58.32	15.77
Centre Type: Other	37,500	3.94	2.08	13.3	53.95	78.61	44.82	44.54	16.33
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	1,172,540	5.08	1.95	24.03	78.44	89.28	50.71	50.56	15.79
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	53,295	4.65	1.83	16.03	72.82	89.55	47.06	46.74	14.85
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	83,665	7.06	1.48	65.12	98.98	89.13	69.26	69.47	11.56
Centre Type: Sixth form college	1,540	4.59	2.07	19.01	69.31	85.01	52.6	51.74	15.42
Centre Type: Tertiary college	1,990	4.59	1.85	14.67	72.71	75.43	47.06	46.99	15.35
Region: East Midlands	314,215	5.09	1.97	24.42	78.34	89.25	51.05	50.75	16.23
Region: East of England	424,175	5.28	2	28	80.48	88.88	51.97	51.72	16.7
Region: London	565,120	5.54	2.05	33.57	82.98	81.45	52.56	52.68	16.28
Region: North East	152,170	5.06	1.96	23.59	78.15	91.98	52.14	52.05	16.01
Region: North West	499,670	5.13	2	25.56	78.4	88.52	51.84	51.83	15.92
Region: South East	614,380	5.41	2.02	30.92	81.93	86.58	53.03	52.69	16.51
Region: South West	351,350	5.28	1.98	27.8	81.09	88.62	51.97	51.85	16.36
Region: West Midlands	384,230	5.1	1.99	25.28	78.03	88.22	50.92	50.86	16.5
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	347,685	5.04	2	24.16	77.4	89.63	49.75	49.76	16.39
Gender: F	1,846,585	5.49	1.98	31.77	83.74	87.87	51.55	51.52	16.23
Gender: M	1,806,215	5.01	2.02	23.85	76.28	86.99	52.05	51.87	16.51
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	572,480	3.4	1.39	2.13	45.07	100	29.55	27.63	7.5
Prior attainment: Low	608,480	4.36	1.47	7.37	73.39	100	41.88	41.74	2.78
Prior attainment: Medium	641,185	5.11	1.54	17.41	86.86	100	50.59	50.56	2.43
Prior attainment: High	668,445	5.93	1.57	35.79	94.29	100	59.23	59.36	2.78
Prior attainment: Very high	703,285	7.09	1.53	66.68	98.36	100	71.75	73.64	7.5
Prior attainment: Unknown	459,140	5.16	2.29	30.66	74.19	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	61,240	5.46	1.96	31.16	83.41	80.73	49.42	49.74	15.83
Ethnicity: AIND	107,650	6.12	1.99	45.25	89.35	83.82	56.38	56.02	16.63
Ethnicity: AOTH	68,110	5.86	2.02	40.06	86.76	81.28	54.57	54.34	16.48
Ethnicity: APKN	142,645	5.04	1.99	24.24	76.82	85.24	47.06	47.3	16.2
Ethnicity: BAFR	134,330	5.18	1.92	25.49	80.11	77.23	49.21	49.19	15.56
Ethnicity: BCRB	43,460	4.54	1.8	14.32	70.42	89.27	45.86	45.66	14.54
Ethnicity: BOTH	26,330	4.87	1.93	20.65	74.8	76.85	47.48	47.46	15.41
Ethnicity: CHNE	13,795	6.77	1.85	59.06	94.92	83.67	60.98	60.44	16.99
Ethnicity: MOTH	69,970	5.36	2.03	30.04	81.08	84.11	52.86	52.53	16.5
Ethnicity: MWAS	43,290	5.74	2.05	37.67	85.13	88.97	55.62	55.48	17.04
Ethnicity: MWBA	23,550	5.2	2	26.86	79.39	86.34	51.72	51.31	16.1
Ethnicity: MWBC	47,860	4.68	1.92	18.07	71.83	92.45	48.49	48.6	15.66
Ethnicity: OOTH	63,210	5.25	2.08	28.9	79.04	71.74	49.5	49.79	16.54
Ethnicity: WBRI	2,368,050	5.13	1.96	25.05	79.16	94.3	52.05	51.91	16.21
Ethnicity: WIRI	10,920	5.68	2.04	36.81	85.07	88.55	56.88	56.56	16.26
Ethnicity: WIRT	865	3.78	1.91	8.9	54.91	83.58	43.85	43.3	15.44
Ethnicity: WOTH	186,890	5.18	2.09	27.76	77.78	71.25	50.17	49.8	17.14
Ethnicity: WROM	6,595	2.73	1.74	2.76	30.97	54.21	34.29	33.3	16.8
Ethnicity: Unknown	234,245	6.23	2.07	48.64	89.2	49.27	55.36	55.09	16.73
Major language: English	2,885,560	5.18	1.97	26.05	79.61	93.09	52.1	51.96	16.26
Major language: Not English	573,280	5.21	2.08	28.27	78.31	74.39	48.96	49	16.64
Major language: Unknown	194,165	6.46	1.99	53.52	91.71	41.77	57.2	56.91	16.47
SEND: No SEND	3,060,430	5.38	1.93	28.72	83.25	90.55	53.03	53.16	15.5
SEND: SEND	404,780	3.74	1.88	8.94	50.16	85.52	37.85	38.7	17.22
SEND: Unknown	187,795	6.52	1.97	54.56	92.37	40.76	57.66	57.29	16.36
FSM: Not FSM	2,984,505	5.35	1.96	28.69	82.28	90.43	52.86	52.7	16.17
FSM: FSM	480,705	4.17	1.91	12.24	61.39	87.03	44.2	44.21	15.54
FSM: Unknown	187,795	6.52	1.97	54.56	92.37	40.76	57.66	57.29	16.36
Deprivation: Very low	725,255	5.8	1.89	36.59	88.47	92.57	56.51	56.09	15.93
Deprivation: Low	723,465	5.45	1.92	30.09	84.11	92.24	53.67	53.53	16.07
Deprivation: Medium	692,435	5.17	1.97	25.77	79.45	89.86	51.34	51.19	16.25
Deprivation: High	673,890	4.88	1.98	21.43	74.62	87.68	49.12	49.09	16.1
Deprivation: Very high	645,155	4.54	1.96	16.76	68.81	87.17	46.76	46.82	15.74
Deprivation: Unknown	192,800	6.48	1.98	53.73	91.91	41.34	57.2	56.94	16.43

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure.

Table C1.9 2021 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	2,131,780	5.26	2.06	28.71	79.87	90.62	51.66	51.67	16.42
Centre Type: Free schools	42,200	5.25	2.1	29.17	79.14	87.5	49.44	49.22	15.94
Centre Type: Further education establishment	4,805	3.82	2.01	10.3	55.82	77.38	43.95	43.59	14.55
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	172,740	6.92	1.79	62.25	96.32	43.49	58.95	58.72	15.77
Centre Type: Other	35,980	4.02	2.24	15.22	56.16	79.1	45.16	44.85	16.68
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	1,201,685	5.13	2.03	26.24	78.67	89.77	50.64	50.53	15.74
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	55,490	4.7	1.94	18.49	72.59	90.44	47.19	46.9	14.51
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	87,875	7.15	1.48	67.92	98.84	89.98	70.28	70.53	11.67
Centre Type: Sixth form college	1,775	4.5	2.27	21.01	66.2	87.32	53.48	51.78	14.32
Centre Type: Tertiary college	1,825	4.48	2.12	17.65	67.98	72.37	46.59	46.81	16.38
Region: East Midlands	319,275	5.15	2.04	26.33	78.53	89.72	50.61	50.39	16.14
Region: East of England	431,200	5.35	2.07	30.32	80.95	89.06	51.61	51.6	16.63
Region: London	576,370	5.61	2.13	36.26	83	82.32	53.39	53.7	16.41
Region: North East	158,535	5.12	2.03	25.68	78.98	92.76	52.56	52.48	15.72
Region: North West	513,960	5.17	2.08	27.49	78.56	88.94	51.39	51.32	15.93
Region: South East	624,085	5.48	2.09	33.36	82.28	87.27	53.16	52.9	16.56
Region: South West	360,900	5.36	2.05	30.31	81.41	89.06	51.88	51.83	16.44
Region: West Midlands	393,740	5.14	2.07	27.09	77.93	88.64	50.41	50.53	16.44
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	358,095	5.1	2.07	26.22	77.88	90.09	49.75	49.78	16.35
Gender: F	1,887,990	5.56	2.07	34.41	83.57	88.43	52.05	52.08	16.28
Gender: M	1,847,985	5.07	2.08	25.66	76.97	87.51	51.45	51.4	16.49
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	591,025	3.37	1.5	2.57	45.54	100	29.68	27.79	7.39
Prior attainment: Low	629,370	4.45	1.55	9.25	74.91	100	41.89	41.77	2.77
Prior attainment: Medium	653,080	5.18	1.62	20.03	86.83	100	50.53	50.53	2.4
Prior attainment: High	685,225	5.99	1.63	38.37	94	100	59.22	59.33	2.79
Prior attainment: Very high	728,155	7.19	1.52	69.77	98.42	100	71.88	73.74	7.62
Prior attainment: Unknown	449,300	5.21	2.41	33.09	73.84	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	59,790	5.6	2.02	34.93	84.1	81.86	51.02	51.42	15.73
Ethnicity: AIND	113,305	6.27	2.05	49.41	89.49	83.97	57.38	57.04	17.04
Ethnicity: AOTH	70,545	6.01	2.07	44.32	87.52	81.82	55.91	55.63	16.51
Ethnicity: APKN	152,155	5.15	2.08	27.43	77.45	86.09	48.1	48.45	16.15
Ethnicity: BAFR	144,825	5.32	1.98	28.84	81.62	79.82	50.26	50.44	15.5
Ethnicity: BCRB	40,875	4.53	1.91	16.1	69.7	89.76	45.76	45.94	15.16
Ethnicity: BOTH	27,675	4.94	1.98	22.42	76.17	79.79	48.19	48.01	15.35
Ethnicity: CHNE	14,245	6.86	1.82	62.11	95.26	83.91	62.69	62.2	16.85
Ethnicity: MOTH	73,670	5.46	2.1	33.13	81.83	85.15	53.07	53.22	16.51
Ethnicity: MWAS	48,225	5.75	2.1	38.84	84.83	90.05	55.91	55.57	16.75
Ethnicity: MWBA	25,285	5.19	2.02	27.13	79.27	85.9	51.17	51.19	15.8
Ethnicity: MWBC	49,690	4.66	1.98	18.41	71.62	92.62	48.36	48.47	15.36
Ethnicity: OOTH	66,970	5.33	2.16	31.53	79.38	73.36	50.61	50.75	16.18
Ethnicity: WBRI	2,384,035	5.17	2.03	26.83	79.21	94.91	51.77	51.66	16.24
Ethnicity: WIRI	11,170	5.73	2.02	37.46	86.27	91.15	56.03	55.93	16.4
Ethnicity: WIRT	815	3.77	2.02	11.02	52.75	83.48	45.88	43.69	16.91
Ethnicity: WOTH	196,765	5.3	2.15	30.77	79.35	73.92	50.61	50.53	16.96
Ethnicity: WROM	6,875	2.6	1.89	3.49	29.93	57.16	33.06	33.95	16.13
Ethnicity: Unknown	249,230	6.28	2.15	50.46	88.67	48.86	55.19	54.99	16.95
Major language: English	2,941,855	5.23	2.05	28.09	79.76	93.65	51.92	51.86	16.29
Major language: Not English	588,480	5.32	2.15	31.24	79.23	75.93	49.84	50.05	16.67
Major language: Unknown	205,820	6.52	2.08	55.22	91.12	41.31	57.22	56.82	16.72
SEND: No SEND	3,110,705	5.45	1.99	31.17	83.55	91.32	52.94	53.22	15.5
SEND: SEND	428,890	3.75	1.98	9.95	51.34	85.83	37.98	39.08	17.37
SEND: Unknown	196,555	6.59	2.04	56.7	92.03	39.71	57.96	57.51	16.57
FSM: Not FSM	2,955,425	5.45	2.01	31.57	83.12	91.28	52.98	52.94	16.13
FSM: FSM	584,165	4.19	2.01	13.62	62.08	87.5	44.7	44.53	15.72
FSM: Unknown	196,555	6.59	2.04	56.7	92.03	39.71	57.96	57.51	16.57
Deprivation: Very low	746,905	5.89	1.94	39.45	88.86	93.06	56.31	56.01	16.1
Deprivation: Low	727,755	5.52	1.99	32.55	84.34	92.72	53.61	53.5	16.06
Deprivation: Medium	715,915	5.22	2.04	27.91	79.71	90.46	51.26	51.31	16.21
Deprivation: High	686,880	4.92	2.06	23.32	74.88	88.68	49.11	49.19	16.03
Deprivation: Very high	656,935	4.56	2.05	18.21	68.93	88.11	47.08	46.98	15.81
Deprivation: Unknown	201,760	6.55	2.06	55.86	91.62	40.37	57.55	57.17	16.64

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure.

Table C1.10 2022 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	2,129,005	5.1	2.1	26.24	76.7	90.53	51.75	51.74	16.31
Centre Type: Free schools	42,805	5	2.12	25.22	74.93	87.06	49.41	49.33	15.85
Centre Type: Further education establishment	4,350	3.36	1.92	6.49	43.12	75.53	44.64	44.43	13.77
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	173,235	6.56	1.9	53.84	93.76	41.9	58.95	58.69	15.9
Centre Type: Other	34,855	3.73	2.24	12.98	49.04	79.02	45.06	44.92	16.98
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	1,201,295	4.96	2.05	23.3	75.09	89.95	50.74	50.64	15.74
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	56,800	4.49	1.92	15.18	68.61	90.47	46.99	46.82	14.63
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	88,545	7.09	1.6	65.84	98.05	89.76	70.32	70.5	11.83
Centre Type: Sixth form college	1,730	4.1	2.2	14.35	59.95	82.29	51.45	50.88	16.85
Centre Type: Tertiary college	1,995	4.34	2.25	18.49	61.22	69.44	46.38	46.03	14.53
Region: East Midlands	321,675	4.97	2.05	23.36	75.29	89.88	50.46	50.33	16.1
Region: East of England	429,195	5.17	2.1	27.28	77.69	89.03	51.57	51.7	16.42
Region: London	572,485	5.49	2.17	34.16	80.54	82.53	53.79	53.82	16.38
Region: North East	159,985	4.94	2.05	23.16	74.96	92.29	52.56	52.52	15.87
Region: North West	514,805	4.97	2.11	24.32	74.48	88.53	51.34	51.32	15.89
Region: South East	627,800	5.31	2.13	30.19	79.2	87.06	53	52.84	16.49
Region: South West	358,865	5.14	2.07	26.32	77.78	88.72	51.79	51.79	16.22
Region: West Midlands	390,535	4.99	2.1	24.47	74.68	88.6	50.59	50.73	16.51
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	359,265	4.95	2.09	23.75	74.75	90.27	50.21	50.17	16.37
Gender: F	1,880,335	5.36	2.09	30.71	80.26	88.23	52.03	52.1	16.26
Gender: M	1,854,125	4.92	2.12	23.6	73.74	87.54	51.63	51.52	16.4
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	591,490	3.22	1.56	2.38	39.88	100	29.88	27.99	7.34
Prior attainment: Low	627,165	4.29	1.6	8.1	69.55	100	42.01	41.88	2.75
Prior attainment: Medium	655,605	5	1.67	17.56	82.88	100	50.65	50.62	2.41
Prior attainment: High	684,365	5.79	1.69	33.77	91.76	100	59.31	59.41	2.78
Prior attainment: Very high	723,675	7.01	1.6	64.48	97.66	100	71.94	73.8	7.58
Prior attainment: Unknown	452,315	5.09	2.39	30.33	72.15	0	0	0	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	61,510	5.53	2.05	33.74	82.61	82.73	51.7	51.87	16.09
Ethnicity: AIND	119,780	6.22	2.05	47.88	89.01	84.29	57.57	57.1	16.82
Ethnicity: AOTH	72,190	5.86	2.1	40.88	85.73	81.97	55.94	55.4	16.42
Ethnicity: APKN	153,025	5.04	2.11	25.76	75.11	85.77	48.41	48.63	16.17
Ethnicity: BAFR	149,890	5.21	2.02	27.09	79.23	79.37	50.68	50.84	15.63
Ethnicity: BCRB	39,410	4.35	1.98	14.31	64.41	89.32	46.72	46.67	15.13
Ethnicity: BOTH	27,050	4.85	2.03	21.54	73.35	80.54	48.69	48.62	15.36
Ethnicity: CHNE	15,675	6.67	1.93	57.53	93.22	76.69	62.78	61.6	16.72
Ethnicity: MOTH	75,065	5.33	2.17	31.01	78.75	85.5	53.26	53.42	16.79
Ethnicity: MWAS	51,545	5.67	2.13	37.17	83.34	89.66	55.78	55.48	16.85
Ethnicity: MWBA	27,780	5.03	2.05	24.39	76.31	86.87	51.05	50.96	15.21
Ethnicity: MWBC	50,410	4.46	2.01	16.1	66.76	93.62	48.56	48.44	15.58
Ethnicity: OOTH	69,000	5.2	2.22	29.85	76.6	73.44	50.95	50.85	16.35
Ethnicity: WBRI	2,341,940	4.98	2.06	23.69	75.33	95.06	51.75	51.71	16.14
Ethnicity: WIRI	10,370	5.67	2.1	36.84	83.68	91.52	57.46	57.05	15.95
Ethnicity: WIRT	900	3.69	1.92	8.46	50.67	85.52	42.99	42.98	16.04
Ethnicity: WOTH	206,160	5.17	2.17	28.39	77.07	77.13	50.4	50.25	16.99
Ethnicity: WROM	6,490	2.6	1.9	2.97	30.12	65.93	33.17	33.21	17
Ethnicity: Unknown	256,425	5.96	2.19	43.49	85.67	46.79	55.45	55.17	16.73
Major language: English	2,928,885	5.06	2.08	25.29	76.2	93.79	51.99	51.97	16.22
Major language: Not English	593,615	5.21	2.18	29.26	77.1	76.34	49.84	49.89	16.66
Major language: Unknown	212,110	6.17	2.14	47.45	88.15	38.8	57.42	57.07	16.65
SEND: No SEND	3,095,880	5.28	2.03	28.23	80.3	91.35	53.09	53.35	15.39
SEND: SEND	437,655	3.67	2.03	9.79	48.32	86.94	38.18	39.2	17.43
SEND: Unknown	201,080	6.24	2.11	48.72	89.07	36.61	58.29	57.93	16.4
FSM: Not FSM	2,893,895	5.31	2.05	28.98	80.4	91.49	53.2	53.15	16.05
FSM: FSM	639,640	4.05	2.03	12.24	57.97	87.71	44.75	44.69	15.63
FSM: Unknown	201,080	6.24	2.11	48.72	89.07	36.61	58.29	57.93	16.4
Deprivation: Very low	742,575	5.75	1.98	36.46	86.64	92.93	56.26	56.14	15.89
Deprivation: Low	735,380	5.36	2.03	29.39	81.32	92.7	53.61	53.53	16.04
Deprivation: Medium	700,745	5.06	2.08	25.18	76.31	90.85	51.31	51.31	16.14
Deprivation: High	692,355	4.75	2.09	20.93	71.05	88.89	49.16	49.21	16.06
Deprivation: Very high	658,055	4.4	2.07	16.36	64.78	88.44	47.33	47.21	15.83
Deprivation: Unknown	205,500	6.21	2.12	48.16	88.7	37.18	58.02	57.69	16.45

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5. * indicates that results are withheld for very small groups out of concern for disclosure.

Appendix C.2 - VTQ

Table C2.1 Counts of learners included in the equalities analysis per qualification group – Level 1/2

Qualification group	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Technical Award	156,940	251,345	368,285	413,130	401,725
Technical Certificates	8,100	16,320	13,115	14,375	18,100
Total	165,035	267,670	381,400	427,505	419,825

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5.

Table C2.2 Counts of learners included in the equalities analysis per qualification group – Level 3

Qualification group	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Applied General qualifications	76,105	96,065	140,775	197,250	234,060
Tech Levels	21,845	23,745	25,905	41,990	51,830
Total	97,955	119,810	166,680	239,245	285,890

Values have been rounded to the nearest 5.

Table and figure C2.3. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by Ethnicity – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
White British	72.7	72.1	70.8	70.1	69.1	8	6.7	13.2	11.3	9.6
White Irish	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	5.9	7.9	12.7	9.7	8.4
Any other White background (AOWB)	4.6	4.6	5	5.2	5.3	5.8	5.4	11.4	10.2	8.3
White and Asian	<1	<1	<1	1	1	10.2	8	14.9	13	10.6
White and Black African	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	8	7.8	11.8	10.9	8.7
White and Black Caribbean	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5	1.6	6.8	5.5	11.6	9.2	7.6
Any other Mixed or Multiple background (AOMMB)	1.4	1.4	1.6	1.6	1.7	9	7.4	13.5	11.8	9.7
Indian	1.5	1.7	1.9	2	2	10.6	8.1	17.9	16	12.5
Pakistani	4.1	4.7	4.8	4.9	4.7	6	4.6	10	9	6.8
Bangladeshi	1.2	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.4	8.9	6.3	12.2	11.9	9.3
Chinese	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	18.3	12	24.5	22.2	20.4
Any other Asian background (AOAB)	1	1	1.2	1.3	1.3	8.1	5.5	14.8	12.5	10.6
African	2.6	2.8	3.2	3.4	3.5	6.5	6.1	10.7	9.8	8.6
Caribbean	1.2	1.3	1.2	1.2	1.1	5.5	5.6	10.4	8.7	7.1
Any other Black, African or Caribbean background (AOBACB)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	5.6	5.5	12.4	8.6	7.8
Any other ethnic group (AOEG)	1.2	1.2	1.4	1.5	1.6	5.3	4.6	11.9	9.9	7.6
Unknown	4.8	3.8	3.4	3.1	3.8	7.4	6.9	12.7	10.9	8.9

Table and figure C2.4. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No FSM	82.1	80.8	79.3	97.3	73.4	8.2	7.0	13.9	11.1	10.6
FSM	14.9	17.2	19	1.7	24.4	4.7	3.7	8.6	7.9	5.4
Unknown	3	2	1.6	1	2.2	8.6	9.4	15.1	13.7	9.5

Table and figure C2.5. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Female	41.4	50.9	46.4	46.1	46.1	9.6	7.3	17.4	15.3	12.5
Male	58.5	48.9	53.6	53.9	53.8	6.3	5.5	9.1	7.5	6.5
Unknown	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	65.8	54.5	8.3	9.5	14.3

Table and figure C2.6. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	18.7	19.2	19.5	19.7	19.5	9.5	8.3	15.3	14.0	11.6
Low	18.9	19.2	19.5	19.6	19.4	8.5	7.2	13.6	12.2	10.2
Medium	19.2	19.3	19.5	19.6	19.5	7.5	6.0	12.6	10.5	8.7
High	19.4	19.5	19.5	19.6	19.6	6.8	5.6	11.4	9.7	8.2
Very high	19.7	19.7	19.5	19.7	19.7	6.5	5.2	11.6	8.9	7.7
Unknown	4.1	3	2.4	1.9	2.3	7.7	7.8	13.8	12.0	9.5

Table and figure C2.7. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	15.5	15.7	16	15.8	15.7	1.5	1.1	3.4	2	1.6
Low	15.5	15.7	16.1	16	15.8	3.2	2.5	6.7	5.2	4.2
Medium	15.4	15.8	16.2	16.1	15.8	6	4.5	10.4	8.9	7.3
High	15.3	15.8	16.3	16.2	15.9	10.3	8.3	16.4	14.1	11.8
Very high	15.2	15.9	16.4	16.3	16	20.3	17.4	29.2	27.6	23.4
Unknown	23.1	21.1	18.9	19.7	20.8	6.1	5.3	11.3	9	7.8

Table and figure C2.8. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No SEN	80.6	82.2	82.1	82.1	81.6	8.7	7.2	14.4	12.5	10.5
SEN	15.3	14.7	15.6	16.1	16.2	2.7	2.1	5.0	3.7	3.4
Unknown	4.2	3.1	2.3	1.8	2.2	7.8	8.3	14.1	12.1	9.5

Table and figure C2.9. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by ethnicity – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
White British	46.9	33.4	22.2	20.5	67.2	56.6	36.7	20.1	17.2	12.2
White Irish	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	38.1	44.4	14.3	44.4	21.1
Any other White background (AOWB)	11.3	7.1	3.3	2.9	6.8	58.8	45.8	27.5	24.6	20.6
White and Asian	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	42.4	26.9	11.1	18.9	14.0
White and Black African	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	47.1	8.6	11.1	12.0	8.3
White and Black Caribbean	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.2	41.9	12.9	11.1	13.3	9.5
Any other Mixed or Multiple background (AOMMB)	<1	<1	<1	<1	1	42.4	22.9	14.7	11.7	13.0
Indian	1.7	1.5	1.1	1	1.6	44.0	34.0	17.0	20.0	19.2
Pakistani	1.5	1.7	2	1.9	3.1	38.1	21.4	16.1	10.2	12.7
Bangladeshi	<1	<1	1.5	1.2	1.1	28.1	29.5	31.7	12.4	11.2
Chinese	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	58.3	45.3	52.6	62.5	48.2
Any other Asian background (AOAB)	1.6	1.2	1	<1	1.2	54.3	25.5	18.2	17.7	19.8
African	1.2	1.7	2.4	1.9	2	26.3	15.7	13.4	11.8	13.0
Caribbean	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	32.2	18.9	6.7	13.0	7.7
Any other Black, African or Caribbean background (AOBACB)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	23.1	15.7	13.2	7.9	10.1
Any other ethnic group (AOEG)	1.7	1.3	1.1	1.1	1.6	46.7	33.6	12.2	14.9	9.8
Unknown	30.4	48.3	62.6	65.8	9.7	41.2	13.3	10.2	9.6	38.9

Table and figure C2.10. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No FSM	84.4	88.7	89.9	87.9	80.3	49.7	23.3	12.4	9.7	14.1
FSM	1.1	3.1	4.7	5.1	10.7	20.9	10.8	12	8.8	5.5
Unknown	14.5	8.3	5.3	6.9	9	57.2	44.5	37.9	44.6	40.9

Table and figure C2.11. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Female	64.1	63.2	56.9	48.2	36.5	57.5	28.7	15.5	12.4	10.3
Male	35.8	36.6	42.7	45.9	41.8	37.7	17.8	11.1	6.2	6.5
Unknown	<1	<1	<1	5.9	21.7	77.8	15.6	46.4	55.2	42.0

Table and figure C2.12. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	22.6	13.7	7.4	6.2	19.3	60.2	44.2	24	22.9	16.1
Low	19	12.8	7.7	7.1	20.7	56.1	38.1	20.3	19.3	13.2
Medium	14.2	11.2	7.8	7.6	18.7	52.5	34.6	21.4	16.1	13.7
High	9.8	8.7	7.9	7.7	17.5	46.1	28.3	16	14.7	12.3
Very high	4.5	5.4	6.9	6	14.6	44	21.3	16.8	11.6	9.1
Unknown	30	48.3	62.4	65.4	9.1	41	13.1	10.1	9.5	40.8

Table and figure C2.13. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	2	10.6	17.2	19.1	8.3	9.4	4.9	7.0	4.5	4.7
Low	2.6	9.6	14.2	15.5	7.2	11.4	5.0	7.9	5.0	3.8
Medium	3.2	9.1	12	12.1	6.5	25.6	6.7	9.7	7.0	4.5
High	5.3	8.1	9.7	9.9	5.1	29.6	11.8	10.8	8.0	6.2
Very high	7.6	6.9	6.3	6.6	3.5	45.5	26.9	19.0	16.8	9.7
Unknown	79.3	55.7	40.7	36.8	69.4	55.6	36.4	19.7	20.8	20.2

Table and figure C2.14. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No SEN	6.3	13.9	19.3	19.4	64.6	19.1	10.0	13.0	9.7	6.1
SEN	<1	1.9	3.3	3.2	4.2	27.3	8.8	12.2	6.5	5.0
Unknown	93	84.2	77.4	77.4	31.1	52.7	27.5	14.0	12.9	36.8

Table and figure C2.15. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by ethnicity – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
White British	46.7	44.4	35.7	31.9	58.9	5.8	7.3	19.4	21.8	14.7
White Irish	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	4.5	6.6	13.8	21.9	13.9
Any other White background (AOWB)	3.5	3.4	3.2	2.9	5.7	3.6	5	16.2	16.7	10.3
White and Asian	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.2	4.1	4	16.9	17.6	11.8
White and Black African	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	4.4	2.2	13.4	12.6	7.9
White and Black Caribbean	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.4	3.9	4.5	14.4	16.3	9.8
Any other Mixed or Multiple background (AOMMB)	1.2	1.2	1.1	1	1.8	3.3	4.8	14.1	15.9	9
Indian	2.6	2.6	2.1	1.8	3.1	4.1	5.4	17.3	20.3	12.7
Pakistani	4.8	4.8	3.7	3.1	6.7	3.3	3.6	14.7	14.3	9
Bangladeshi	1.8	1.9	1.5	1.4	2.6	4.1	4.1	15.5	15.5	10.5
Chinese	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	7	9.2	21.4	24.2	14.5
Any other Asian background (AOAB)	1.7	1.6	1.3	1.2	2.1	3.5	3.5	13	14.4	9.7
African	3.7	3.9	3.3	3.2	5.8	1.6	2.4	10.9	10.9	6.5
Caribbean	1.1	<1	<1	<1	1.6	2.6	2.7	10.7	13.5	5.7
Any other Black, African or Caribbean background (AOBACB)	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.4	1.1	3.1	11.1	12.1	4.6
Any other ethnic group (AOEG)	1.2	1.4	1.2	1.2	2.4	3	4.4	15	15.5	8
Unknown	29	31.2	43.5	49.1	4	4.5	6.1	13.9	14.6	14.4

Table and figure C2.16. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No FSM	90.1	89.6	89.3	91.9	84.2	4.9	6.2	16.1	17.2	13
FSM	6.2	6.8	6.5	7	13.2	3.6	4.5	15	14.3	9.4
Unknown	3.7	3.6	4.1	1.1	2.6	5.1	5.8	14.2	16.6	16.2

Table and figure C2.17. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Female	52.2	52.1	52.8	53.6	53.8	6.1	7.6	19	20.5	15
Male	47.8	47.9	47.2	46.4	46.2	3.3	4.5	12.5	13	9.9
Unknown	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	0	0	0	10	6.5

Table and figure C2.18. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	13.9	13.6	11.5	10.5	19.5	6.5	7.9	19.0	23.7	16.0
Low	14.1	13.8	11.4	10.3	19.2	5.7	6.8	18.1	21.1	14.5
Medium	14.2	13.8	11.5	10.4	19.5	4.9	6.1	17.3	18.6	12.0
High	14.6	14	11.6	10.3	19.6	4.1	5.3	16.2	16.7	10.6
Very high	15	14.4	11.5	10.2	19.4	3.7	4.6	17.0	16.0	9.4
Unknown	28.3	30.3	42.5	48.3	2.8	4.5	6.1	13.9	14.6	16.2

Table and figure C2.19. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	16.7	16.8	16.8	16.5	16.4	0.4	0.5	5.5	4.5	2.1
Low	18.1	18	17.7	17.3	17.3	0.9	1.3	8.3	7.6	4.3
Medium	18.1	18.1	17.9	17.8	17.8	2.1	2.7	11.9	12.6	8.7
High	18.1	18.1	18.1	18	18	5.1	6.7	18.3	20.8	15.3
Very high	18.1	18	17.9	18	18.1	15.7	19.5	36.3	40.3	33
Unknown	10.8	11	11.7	12.4	12.4	3.8	5.2	14	13.6	10.1

Table and figure C2.20. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No SEN	66.4	64.3	53.1	47.7	91.2	5.1	6.2	17.8	19.7	12.6
SEN	4.4	4.6	3.9	3.6	5.7	3.1	4.4	15.0	14.6	11.4
Unknown	29.2	31.1	43	48.7	3.1	4.4	6.1	13.9	14.6	15.6

Table and figure C2.21. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by ethnicity status – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
White British	43.9	40.7	34	29.7	71.7	11.7	15.6	18.2	19.8	11.2
White Irish	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	13.9	9.7	25	19	12.6
Any other White background (AOWB)	3.7	3.9	2.2	2.7	5.1	13.2	17	16.9	17.9	12.1
White and Asian	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	11.8	8.2	16.3	16.2	11.9
White and Black African	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	5.9	8.6	11.3	8.4	11.2
White and Black Caribbean	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.2	4.9	14	15.1	16.1	8.2
Any other Mixed or Multiple background (AOMMB)	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.2	7.7	7.2	23.1	17.5	11.4
Indian	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.1	1.8	7.9	13.5	15.7	23	15.7
Pakistani	2	2.4	2	1.9	3.7	6.8	6.5	12.4	11	9.2
Bangladeshi	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.3	4.2	8.9	21.2	15.8	11.7
Chinese	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	18.6	20.9	33.3	21.7	27.4
Any other Asian background (AOAB)	1.1	1	<1	<1	1.3	9.7	11.7	19.2	15	14.1
African	1.7	1.9	1.6	1.6	2.7	1.9	8.4	10	13.8	8.4
Caribbean	<1	<1	<1	<1	1.1	4.5	11.2	9.9	11.4	8.6
Any other Black, African or Caribbean background (AOBACB)	<1	<1	<1	<1	<1	5.1	6.1	17.3	12.2	6.3
Any other ethnic group (AOEG)	<1	1	<1	<1	1.6	9.6	7	13.5	14	10.5
Unknown	41.2	43.8	53.6	57.3	4.8	5	6.4	9.6	13.1	17.7

Table and figure C2.22. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No FSM	90.7	90.1	93	91.2	84.9	8.1	10.5	13.1	15.4	11.6
FSM	3.1	3.9	4.7	5.3	11.4	5.9	9.5	13.3	13.5	8.1
Unknown	6.1	5.9	2.3	3.5	3.7	15.5	17.5	17.9	18.7	18.6

Table and figure C2.23. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Female	54.3	51.8	48	52.8	49.7	8.1	10.6	12.9	15.8	10.5
Male	41.4	48.2	51.1	46.6	47.7	9.1	11.2	13.4	14.9	11.9
Unknown	4.3	<1	<1	<1	2.6	6.9	10	20.8	24.8	21.3

Table and figure C2.24. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	13.5	12.7	9.4	7.8	19.2	13.9	18.1	20.0	24.1	13.8
Low	12.7	11.9	9.9	8.7	20.4	12.7	16.6	18.7	20.9	12.4
Medium	12.5	11.8	9.5	8.5	18.8	10.1	13.6	17.7	19.6	11.4
High	11	10.9	9	8.8	18.6	8.8	12.1	14.8	15.3	9.5
Very high	9.6	9.5	9.3	9.3	19.2	7.1	9.8	15.6	13.6	8.6
Unknown	40.7	43.2	53	56.9	3.9	5.0	6.3	9.5	13.1	18.3

Table and figure C2.25. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
Very low	17.1	18.8	21.7	20.9	20.7	0.9	1.5	3.2	4.7	2.7
Low	12.6	13.8	16.5	17.2	16.6	2.2	3.6	5.9	8.2	4.5
Medium	12.3	13.2	15.6	15	14.7	3.2	5.6	9.8	12	8.8
High	12.4	13.2	14.6	13.9	13.6	6.6	10.4	16.6	20.5	14.3
Very high	12.2	13.9	15.3	13.9	13.3	19.9	24.8	35.6	38.4	31.9
Unknown	33.4	27.1	16.3	19.1	21.1	13.1	16.7	13.1	15.9	12.4

Table and figure C2.26. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Category	Percentage of awards in 2018	Percentage of awards in 2019	Percentage of awards in 2020	Percentage of awards in 2021	Percentage of awards in 2022	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2018	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2019	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2020	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2021	Percentage of top grades awarded in 2022
No SEN	34.9	37.1	38.2	33.3	82.5	8.3	12.2	18.1	18.8	10.7
SEN	2.7	3	3.4	2.9	5	5.2	7.5	13.8	14.7	11.8
Unknown	62.4	59.9	58.4	63.8	12.5	8.7	10.2	9.9	13.7	16.5

Question 4

Appendix D - Model specifications

Accepted Answer

Appendix D.1 - GQ Model Specification

All models fitted can be expressed mathematically as:

y_ijk = α + β x_ijk + u_i + u_j + e_ijk

where:

y_ijk = [in numeric grade analysis] numeric grade awarded for exam entry by candidate i in centre j in subject k; [in grade probability analysis] exam entry by candidate i in centre j in subject k being awarded the target grade or not (1 or 0);

x_ijk = a set of background variables about candidate i in centre j taking the exam entry in subject k;

u_i = random intercept of candidate i;

u_j = random intercept of centre j;

u_j= random intercept of subject k;

e_ijk = entry level residual.

All analyses included student, centre and subject as random effects, to take account of students taking multiple subjects and students clustering within centres. The subject random effects had the following categories:

A level: Art & Design: 3D Studies, Art & Design: Art, Craft and Design, Art & Design: Critical and Contextual Studies, Art & Design: Fine Art, Art & Design: Graphics, Art & Design: Photography, Art & Design: Textiles, Biology, Business Studies, Chemistry, Classical Greek, Computing, Dance, Drama & Theatre Studies, Economics, English Language, English Language & Literature, English Literature, French, Geography, German, History, Latin, Music, Physical Education, Physics, Psychology, Religious Studies, Sociology, Spanish
GCSE: Art & Design: 3D Studies, Art & Design: Art, Craft and Design, Art & Design: Critical and Contextual Studies, Art & Design: Fine Art, Art & Design: Graphics, Art & Design: Photography, Art & Design: Textiles, Biology, Chemistry, Citizenship Studies, Classical Greek, Combined Science, Computing, Dance, Drama, English Language, English Literature, Food Prep and Nutrition, French, Geography, German, History, Latin, Mathematics, Music, Physical Education, Physics, Religious Studies, Spanish

The fixed effects of the models were: (please refer to Appendix A above for keys to the acronyms and abbreviations)

gender: male, female (reference category) (the unknown/neither category was omitted in the modelling because of the extremely small number of entries belonging to the category)
ethnicity: ABAN, AIND, AOTH, APKN, BAFR, BCRB, BOTH, CHNE, MOTH, MWAS, MWBA, MWBC, WBRI (reference category), WIRI, WIRT (only in GCSE analyses), WOTH (subsuming WIRT and WROM in A level analyses), WROM (only in GCSE analyses), unknown
major language: English (reference category), NotEnglish, unknown
SEND status: NoSEND (reference category), SEND, unknown
FSM eligibility: NoFSM (reference category), FSM, unknown
deprivation: very low, low, medium (reference category), high, very high, unknown
prior attainment: very low, low, medium (reference category), high, very high, unknown
centre type: Acad (reference category), Free, FurE, Indp, Other, SecComp, SecMod, SecSel, Sixth, Tert
region: EM, EA, LD, NE, NW, SE (reference category), SW, WM, Y&H

For the grade probability measures, we also ran logistic regressions in which the dependent variable y_ijk was the natural logarithm of the odds of the exam entry by candidate i in centre j in subject k being awarded the target grade. The exponentials of the β coefficients of a fitted logistic regression model are the odds ratios between groups which can be interpreted as estimates of the likelihood of entries by students of a particular group being awarded the target grade relative to entries by students of the reference group after controlling for other variables. For the between-group comparisons examined in our modelling, the pattern of changes in odds ratio across the years in the logistic models was consistent with the pattern of changes in relative outcome difference across the years in the linear probability models. We present results of the linear models for the grade probability measures in this report, as probabilities are more intuitive to interpret than odds ratios.

Appendix D.2 - VTQ model specification

A mixed effect modelling approach was also adopted for VTQ analysis, whereby the learner characteristics (including their prior attainment) were treated as fixed effects, and the learner’s centre was treated as a random effect. This is because there may be factors affecting results that only learners from the same centre have in common, such as teaching materials used at their school or college.

The logistic regression specification (available separately in an accessible document) takes the form:

where:

P(Y_ij = 1) is the dependant variable. It determines the probability of achieving a top grade for candidate i at centre j
X_i is a set of independent fixed effect variables summarising the demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the candidate (see list of variables described above)
Z_i is an independent fixed effect variable determining the highest level of prior attainment of candidate i. It is an additional variable that is controlled for in the logistic regression analysis
c_j is a random effect determined by centre-level characteristics. It is also an additional variable that is controlled for in the logistic regression analysis
α, β, γ are the regression coefficients

Appendix D.3 – Confidence intervals

All β coefficients had associated standard errors (SEs), which quantified how precisely β coefficients had been estimated. The SEs were used to compute the 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of the β coefficients, using the formula: 95% CI = β ± 1.96*SE. βs (taken as estimates of relative outcome differences after controlling for other background variables). The same calculation was used for both GQ and VTQ analyses.

Question 5

Appendix E - Full results tables

Accepted Answer

Appendix E.1 - GQ

Table E1.1 Full model results of analyses on numeric grade in A level

Variable	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Centre type	0	0	0	0	0
Region	0	0	0	0	0
Gender	0	0	0	0	0
Prior attainment	7	7	6	7	8
Ethnicity	39	38	38	38	38
Major language	38	38	38	38	37
SEND	38	37	37	37	37
FSM eligibility	38	37	37	37	37
Deprivation	38	37	38	37	37

Table E1.2 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade A and above in A level

Model term	2018 estimate	2018 SE	2018 p	2019 estimate	2019 SE	2019 p	2020 estimate	2020 SE	2020 p	2021 estimate	2021 SE	2021 p	2022 estimate	2022 SE	2022 p
Intercept α	0.168	0.016	0	0.16	0.016	0	0.329	0.021	0	0.42	0.02	0	0.288	0.018	0
Centre Type: Free	0.018	0.018	0.328	0.03	0.018	0.102	0.014	0.016	0.399	0.001	0.019	0.966	0.02	0.021	0.331
Centre Type: FurE	-0.034	0.014	0.018	-0.038	0.014	0.005	-0.027	0.013	0.031	-0.056	0.014	0	-0.129	0.015	0
Centre Type: Indp	0.104	0.011	0	0.114	0.01	0	0.106	0.01	0	0.155	0.01	0	0.101	0.01	0
Centre Type: Other	-0.014	0.021	0.503	0.013	0.02	0.5	0.03	0.019	0.111	0.072	0.021	0.001	-0.061	0.022	0.007
Centre Type: SecComp	-0.011	0.005	0.019	-0.013	0.004	0.003	0.004	0.004	0.349	0.006	0.005	0.245	-0.009	0.005	0.106
Centre Type: SecMod	-0.023	0.019	0.217	-0.011	0.018	0.549	-0.001	0.017	0.947	-0.008	0.02	0.691	-0.04	0.021	0.062
Centre Type: SecSel	0.025	0.009	0.008	0.028	0.009	0.003	-0.022	0.008	0.005	-0.009	0.01	0.353	0.056	0.011	0
Centre Type: Sixth	-0.005	0.012	0.649	0.001	0.011	0.901	-0.036	0.01	0.001	-0.06	0.011	0	-0.043	0.012	0
Centre Type: Tert	0.01	0.018	0.588	-0.002	0.017	0.924	-0.034	0.015	0.026	-0.062	0.018	0.001	-0.062	0.02	0.002
Ethnicity: ABAN	-0.03	0.008	0	-0.04	0.007	0	-0.045	0.007	0	-0.032	0.007	0	-0.027	0.007	0
Ethnicity: AIND	-0.003	0.005	0.6	-0.003	0.005	0.55	0.007	0.005	0.127	0.023	0.005	0	0.018	0.005	0
Ethnicity: AOTH	-0.032	0.006	0	-0.031	0.006	0	-0.028	0.006	0	-0.003	0.006	0.605	-0.01	0.006	0.061
Ethnicity: APKN	-0.016	0.006	0.003	-0.02	0.005	0	-0.027	0.005	0	-0.022	0.005	0	-0.015	0.005	0.003
Ethnicity: BAFR	-0.029	0.005	0	-0.025	0.005	0	-0.03	0.005	0	-0.042	0.005	0	-0.016	0.005	0
Ethnicity: BCRB	-0.059	0.009	0	-0.043	0.009	0	-0.037	0.01	0	-0.059	0.01	0	-0.036	0.009	0
Ethnicity: BOTH	-0.036	0.012	0.002	-0.029	0.011	0.006	-0.034	0.011	0.002	-0.032	0.011	0.003	-0.027	0.011	0.01
Ethnicity: CHNE	0.006	0.01	0.541	0.026	0.01	0.011	0.054	0.011	0	0.026	0.011	0.018	0.045	0.011	0
Ethnicity: MOTH	-0.008	0.006	0.245	-0.001	0.006	0.85	-0.02	0.006	0.001	-0.017	0.006	0.006	-0.009	0.006	0.132
Ethnicity: MWAS	-0.007	0.007	0.331	0.005	0.007	0.447	0.006	0.007	0.414	0.002	0.007	0.738	0.014	0.007	0.03
Ethnicity: MWBA	-0.019	0.012	0.106	-0.02	0.011	0.075	-0.023	0.011	0.042	-0.027	0.011	0.016	0.006	0.01	0.569
Ethnicity: MWBC	-0.021	0.009	0.02	-0.022	0.008	0.009	-0.021	0.009	0.019	-0.038	0.009	0	-0.027	0.009	0.002
Ethnicity: OOTH	-0.006	0.007	0.412	-0.009	0.007	0.166	0.004	0.007	0.572	0.002	0.007	0.801	0.006	0.006	0.332
Ethnicity: WIRI	0.003	0.012	0.817	0.023	0.012	0.05	-0.004	0.012	0.721	0.01	0.013	0.447	0.039	0.013	0.002
Ethnicity: WOTH	0.004	0.005	0.426	0.007	0.005	0.121	0.017	0.005	0	0.006	0.005	0.218	0.002	0.004	0.655
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.015	0.009	0.082	-0.016	0.008	0.039	-0.021	0.008	0.008	-0.016	0.008	0.034	-0.012	0.007	0.106
FSM: FSM	-0.014	0.004	0.001	-0.006	0.004	0.132	-0.011	0.004	0.005	-0.019	0.004	0	-0.02	0.003	0
FSM: Unknown	0.042	0.027	0.122	0.042	0.026	0.108	0.034	0.027	0.214	0.063	0.028	0.024	0.078	0.028	0.005
Gender: Male	0.034	0.002	0	0.025	0.001	0	0	0.002	0.947	-0.019	0.002	0	0.005	0.002	0.001
Deprivation: Very low	0.018	0.003	0	0.02	0.003	0	0.013	0.003	0	0.022	0.003	0	0.028	0.003	0
Deprivation: Low	0.007	0.003	0.013	0.007	0.003	0.008	0.007	0.003	0.016	0.012	0.003	0	0.014	0.003	0
Deprivation: High	-0.007	0.003	0.012	-0.005	0.003	0.049	-0.003	0.003	0.357	-0.011	0.003	0	-0.014	0.003	0
Deprivation: Very high	-0.017	0.003	0	-0.014	0.003	0	-0.01	0.003	0.002	-0.027	0.003	0	-0.029	0.003	0
Deprivation: Unknown	-0.016	0.019	0.414	-0.02	0.02	0.301	-0.027	0.022	0.23	-0.03	0.023	0.186	-0.05	0.023	0.031
Major language: NotEnglish	-0.008	0.003	0.026	0.002	0.003	0.58	-0.001	0.003	0.679	0.004	0.003	0.19	0.009	0.003	0.006
Major language: Unknown	-0.028	0.016	0.072	-0.025	0.014	0.084	0.009	0.013	0.487	-0.027	0.014	0.049	-0.014	0.013	0.274
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.133	0.002	0	-0.131	0.002	0	-0.251	0.002	0	-0.295	0.002	0	-0.208	0.002	0
Prior attainment: Low	-0.08	0.002	0	-0.078	0.002	0	-0.148	0.002	0	-0.165	0.002	0	-0.118	0.002	0
Prior attainment: High	0.141	0.002	0	0.144	0.002	0	0.245	0.002	0	0.243	0.002	0	0.19	0.002	0
Prior attainment: Very high	0.464	0.002	0	0.477	0.002	0	0.609	0.002	0	0.54	0.002	0	0.501	0.002	0
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.171	0.003	0	0.162	0.003	0	0.177	0.004	0	0.124	0.003	0	0.107	0.003	0
Region: East Midlands	-0.01	0.007	0.167	-0.021	0.007	0.003	-0.011	0.006	0.06	-0.014	0.007	0.062	-0.014	0.008	0.091
Region: East of England	-0.003	0.006	0.673	0.002	0.006	0.696	-0.009	0.005	0.112	0.001	0.007	0.926	-0.001	0.007	0.85
Region: London	0.026	0.006	0	0.022	0.006	0	0.013	0.005	0.007	0.022	0.006	0	0.037	0.007	0
Region: north-east	-0.016	0.009	0.085	-0.005	0.009	0.59	-0.012	0.008	0.141	-0.018	0.01	0.078	-0.019	0.011	0.083
Region: north-west	-0.005	0.007	0.496	-0.005	0.007	0.478	-0.011	0.006	0.053	-0.007	0.007	0.295	-0.012	0.008	0.114
Region: south-west	-0.01	0.006	0.119	-0.002	0.006	0.758	-0.011	0.006	0.049	-0.017	0.007	0.016	-0.008	0.008	0.299
Region: West Midlands	-0.018	0.007	0.006	-0.017	0.006	0.008	-0.02	0.006	0.001	-0.021	0.007	0.003	-0.017	0.008	0.032
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	-0.01	0.007	0.163	-0.012	0.007	0.094	-0.019	0.006	0.003	-0.017	0.008	0.031	-0.017	0.009	0.049
SEND: SEND	0.004	0.005	0.354	0.013	0.004	0.002	-0.011	0.004	0.01	-0.008	0.004	0.065	0.005	0.004	0.196

Table E1.3 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade C and above in A level

Model term	2018 estimate	2018 SE	2018 p	2019 estimate	2019 SE	2019 p	2020 estimate	2020 SE	2020 p	2021 estimate	2021 SE	2021 p	2022 estimate	2022 SE	2022 p
Intercept α	0.806	0.024	0	0.812	0.024	0	0.955	0.015	0	0.964	0.013	0	0.877	0.02	0
Centre Type: Free	-0.028	0.02	0.165	-0.01	0.02	0.629	-0.025	0.013	0.057	-0.017	0.013	0.191	0.002	0.019	0.913
Centre Type: FurE	-0.022	0.015	0.152	-0.062	0.015	0	-0.025	0.01	0.014	-0.035	0.009	0	-0.121	0.013	0
Centre Type: Indp	0.088	0.011	0	0.081	0.01	0	0.051	0.008	0	0.054	0.007	0	0.067	0.009	0
Centre Type: Other	-0.062	0.022	0.005	-0.043	0.021	0.046	0.012	0.015	0.428	0.029	0.014	0.041	-0.046	0.02	0.022
Centre Type: SecComp	-0.012	0.005	0.015	-0.015	0.005	0.003	-0.004	0.003	0.234	0	0.003	0.984	-0.007	0.005	0.129
Centre Type: SecMod	-0.065	0.02	0.001	-0.085	0.02	0	-0.029	0.013	0.03	-0.018	0.013	0.165	-0.045	0.019	0.019
Centre Type: SecSel	0.021	0.01	0.042	0.029	0.01	0.006	-0.007	0.007	0.307	-0.005	0.006	0.443	0.038	0.01	0
Centre Type: Sixth	0.002	0.013	0.884	-0.008	0.012	0.493	-0.023	0.008	0.006	-0.031	0.008	0	-0.026	0.011	0.02
Centre Type: Tert	0.031	0.019	0.105	0.006	0.019	0.771	-0.021	0.013	0.09	-0.035	0.012	0.003	-0.024	0.018	0.185
Ethnicity: ABAN	-0.018	0.008	0.017	-0.016	0.007	0.022	-0.018	0.006	0.001	-0.011	0.005	0.034	0.002	0.006	0.696
Ethnicity: AIND	0.009	0.005	0.071	0.012	0.005	0.008	0.014	0.004	0	0.021	0.003	0	0.019	0.004	0
Ethnicity: AOTH	-0.018	0.006	0.002	-0.013	0.006	0.025	-0.014	0.004	0.001	-0.002	0.004	0.585	-0.001	0.005	0.876
Ethnicity: APKN	-0.015	0.005	0.005	-0.011	0.005	0.027	-0.02	0.004	0	-0.016	0.004	0	-0.002	0.004	0.579
Ethnicity: BAFR	-0.003	0.005	0.537	-0.01	0.005	0.03	-0.013	0.004	0	-0.012	0.004	0.001	0.006	0.004	0.097
Ethnicity: BCRB	-0.031	0.009	0.001	-0.033	0.009	0	-0.011	0.007	0.158	-0.014	0.007	0.046	-0.017	0.008	0.029
Ethnicity: BOTH	-0.014	0.011	0.224	-0.02	0.011	0.054	-0.017	0.008	0.047	-0.022	0.008	0.006	-0.007	0.009	0.426
Ethnicity: CHNE	0.024	0.01	0.02	0.04	0.01	0	0.021	0.008	0.009	0.022	0.008	0.006	0.043	0.009	0
Ethnicity: MOTH	-0.009	0.006	0.147	-0.006	0.006	0.29	-0.007	0.005	0.154	-0.004	0.004	0.431	0.001	0.005	0.883
Ethnicity: MWAS	0.006	0.007	0.363	0.013	0.007	0.062	-0.006	0.005	0.272	-0.003	0.005	0.587	0.012	0.006	0.034
Ethnicity: MWBA	-0.035	0.011	0.002	-0.017	0.011	0.124	-0.012	0.009	0.185	-0.014	0.008	0.092	0.008	0.009	0.335
Ethnicity: MWBC	-0.016	0.009	0.062	-0.01	0.008	0.231	-0.016	0.007	0.018	-0.012	0.007	0.082	-0.013	0.007	0.066
Ethnicity: OOTH	0.006	0.007	0.389	0.006	0.007	0.338	0	0.005	0.958	0.003	0.005	0.532	0.012	0.005	0.031
Ethnicity: WIRI	0.019	0.012	0.104	0.016	0.012	0.164	0.019	0.009	0.041	0.013	0.009	0.152	0.019	0.011	0.072
Ethnicity: WOTH	0.009	0.005	0.066	0.001	0.005	0.847	0.004	0.004	0.221	0.003	0.003	0.442	0.004	0.004	0.241
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.012	0.008	0.152	-0.007	0.008	0.37	-0.019	0.006	0.002	-0.013	0.006	0.016	-0.005	0.006	0.427
FSM: FSM	-0.022	0.004	0	-0.014	0.004	0	-0.014	0.003	0	-0.025	0.003	0	-0.019	0.003	0
FSM: Unknown	0.023	0.026	0.386	0.004	0.026	0.886	0.023	0.021	0.266	0.014	0.02	0.48	0.016	0.024	0.488
Gender: Male	0.028	0.002	0	0.02	0.001	0	-0.018	0.001	0	-0.027	0.001	0	0.003	0.001	0.03
Deprivation: Very low	0.016	0.003	0	0.014	0.003	0	0.008	0.002	0	0.009	0.002	0	0.015	0.002	0
Deprivation: Low	0.006	0.003	0.025	0.004	0.003	0.098	0.004	0.002	0.038	0.006	0.002	0.002	0.006	0.002	0.015
Deprivation: High	-0.008	0.003	0.004	-0.011	0.003	0	-0.002	0.002	0.263	-0.011	0.002	0	-0.013	0.002	0
Deprivation: Very high	-0.013	0.003	0	-0.023	0.003	0	-0.01	0.002	0	-0.018	0.002	0	-0.034	0.003	0
Deprivation: Unknown	-0.02	0.019	0.281	-0.009	0.02	0.647	-0.014	0.017	0.41	-0.013	0.017	0.45	-0.011	0.02	0.59
Major language: NotEnglish	-0.009	0.003	0.011	0	0.003	0.987	0.003	0.003	0.171	-0.001	0.002	0.765	0.006	0.003	0.018
Major language: Unknown	-0.02	0.015	0.198	-0.005	0.015	0.71	0.003	0.01	0.781	0.001	0.01	0.901	-0.019	0.011	0.084
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.334	0.002	0	-0.348	0.002	0	-0.266	0.002	0	-0.253	0.002	0	-0.293	0.002	0
Prior attainment: Low	-0.143	0.002	0	-0.146	0.002	0	-0.091	0.002	0	-0.088	0.002	0	-0.106	0.002	0
Prior attainment: High	0.119	0.002	0	0.128	0.002	0	0.073	0.002	0	0.068	0.002	0	0.097	0.002	0
Prior attainment: Very high	0.218	0.002	0	0.227	0.002	0	0.12	0.002	0	0.11	0.002	0	0.174	0.002	0
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.031	0.003	0	0.021	0.003	0	-0.011	0.003	0	-0.015	0.003	0	-0.017	0.003	0
Region: East Midlands	0.007	0.008	0.34	0	0.008	0.979	-0.009	0.005	0.061	-0.006	0.005	0.203	-0.005	0.007	0.535
Region: East of England	0.007	0.007	0.34	0.005	0.007	0.47	-0.004	0.004	0.369	0.005	0.004	0.279	0.002	0.007	0.724
Region: London	0.027	0.006	0	0.03	0.006	0	0.013	0.004	0.001	0.014	0.004	0.001	0.023	0.006	0
Region: north-east	0.013	0.01	0.2	0.024	0.011	0.024	0.008	0.007	0.269	0.007	0.007	0.297	0.008	0.01	0.406
Region: north-west	0.008	0.007	0.288	0.01	0.007	0.176	0.003	0.005	0.475	0.002	0.005	0.716	0.005	0.007	0.485
Region: south-west	0.002	0.007	0.732	0	0.007	0.97	-0.002	0.005	0.685	-0.008	0.005	0.085	-0.003	0.007	0.679
Region: West Midlands	-0.011	0.007	0.146	-0.003	0.007	0.73	-0.004	0.005	0.367	-0.004	0.005	0.399	-0.005	0.007	0.49
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	0.005	0.008	0.54	-0.002	0.008	0.761	-0.009	0.005	0.081	-0.005	0.005	0.316	-0.008	0.008	0.311
SEND: SEND	-0.006	0.004	0.184	0.003	0.004	0.527	-0.014	0.003	0	-0.021	0.003	0	-0.005	0.003	0.118

Table E1.4 Full model results of analyses on numeric grade in GCSE

Model term	2018 estimate	2018 SE	2018 p	2019 estimate	2019 SE	2019 p	2020 estimate	2020 SE	2020 p	2021 estimate	2021 SE	2021 p	2022 estimate	2022 SE	2022 p
Intercept α	4.945	0.087	0	4.948	0.085	0	5.519	0.079	0	5.527	0.071	0	5.319	0.086	0
Centre Type: Free	-0.197	0.075	0.009	-0.212	0.076	0.005	-0.061	0.066	0.35	-0.046	0.067	0.499	-0.289	0.076	0
Centre Type: FurE	-0.743	0.11	0	-0.942	0.106	0	-0.807	0.091	0	-0.909	0.095	0	-1.119	0.105	0
Centre Type: Indp	1.768	0.033	0	1.748	0.034	0	1.762	0.032	0	1.715	0.032	0	1.41	0.035	0
Centre Type: Other	-1.002	0.039	0	-0.961	0.039	0	-0.688	0.034	0	-0.726	0.035	0	-1.034	0.039	0
Centre Type: SecComp	-0.055	0.027	0.041	-0.063	0.027	0.021	-0.044	0.024	0.065	-0.029	0.024	0.23	-0.049	0.027	0.073
Centre Type: SecMod	-0.251	0.091	0.006	-0.216	0.091	0.018	-0.161	0.079	0.043	-0.159	0.081	0.049	-0.213	0.091	0.02
Centre Type: SecSel	0.875	0.083	0	0.853	0.084	0	0.735	0.072	0	0.711	0.074	0	0.843	0.084	0
Centre Type: Sixth	0.082	0.252	0.744	0.375	0.265	0.157	0.55	0.24	0.022	0.276	0.247	0.263	0.04	0.272	0.884
Centre Type: Tert	-0.554	0.187	0.003	-0.58	0.179	0.001	-0.427	0.156	0.006	-0.485	0.158	0.002	-0.831	0.178	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	0.606	0.017	0	0.66	0.016	0	0.626	0.016	0	0.69	0.016	0	0.707	0.016	0
Ethnicity: AIND	0.631	0.013	0	0.627	0.012	0	0.587	0.012	0	0.657	0.012	0	0.696	0.012	0
Ethnicity: AOTH	0.543	0.015	0	0.566	0.015	0	0.508	0.014	0	0.611	0.014	0	0.581	0.014	0
Ethnicity: APKN	0.373	0.012	0	0.377	0.011	0	0.337	0.011	0	0.383	0.011	0	0.409	0.011	0
Ethnicity: BAFR	0.384	0.011	0	0.373	0.011	0	0.318	0.01	0	0.385	0.01	0	0.434	0.01	0
Ethnicity: BCRB	-0.115	0.016	0	-0.12	0.016	0	-0.065	0.016	0	-0.065	0.017	0	-0.083	0.017	0
Ethnicity: BOTH	0.2	0.022	0	0.178	0.021	0	0.177	0.02	0	0.215	0.02	0	0.269	0.021	0
Ethnicity: CHNE	0.951	0.031	0	0.892	0.029	0	0.947	0.028	0	0.934	0.029	0	1.004	0.028	0
Ethnicity: MOTH	0.24	0.014	0	0.257	0.013	0	0.187	0.012	0	0.229	0.013	0	0.256	0.013	0
Ethnicity: MWAS	0.27	0.017	0	0.304	0.017	0	0.298	0.016	0	0.282	0.015	0	0.36	0.015	0
Ethnicity: MWBA	0.131	0.024	0	0.217	0.023	0	0.168	0.021	0	0.171	0.021	0	0.215	0.02	0
Ethnicity: MWBC	-0.108	0.016	0	-0.104	0.015	0	-0.11	0.014	0	-0.126	0.015	0	-0.125	0.015	0
Ethnicity: OOTH	0.336	0.016	0	0.312	0.015	0	0.282	0.014	0	0.361	0.014	0	0.377	0.014	0
Ethnicity: WIRI	0.134	0.032	0	0.118	0.031	0	0.091	0.031	0.003	0.153	0.032	0	0.156	0.034	0
Ethnicity: WIRT	-0.531	0.13	0	-0.371	0.111	0.001	-0.485	0.099	0	-0.552	0.108	0	-0.432	0.105	0
Ethnicity: WOTH	0.235	0.01	0	0.221	0.01	0	0.209	0.009	0	0.264	0.01	0	0.306	0.01	0
Ethnicity: WROM	-1.28	0.042	0	-1.199	0.04	0	-1.14	0.036	0	-1.215	0.037	0	-1.003	0.039	0
Ethnicity: Unknown	0.019	0.018	0.302	-0.009	0.017	0.588	-0.01	0.015	0.504	0.046	0.015	0.002	0.073	0.015	0
FSM: FSM	-0.382	0.006	0	-0.386	0.005	0	-0.428	0.005	0	-0.488	0.005	0	-0.489	0.005	0
FSM: Unknown	-0.337	0.066	0	-0.364	0.062	0	-0.095	0.063	0.129	-0.025	0.06	0.685	-0.069	0.064	0.281
Gender: Male	-0.392	0.004	0	-0.401	0.004	0	-0.435	0.003	0	-0.395	0.004	0	-0.341	0.004	0
Deprivation: Very low	0.29	0.006	0	0.288	0.006	0	0.232	0.006	0	0.261	0.006	0	0.272	0.006	0
Deprivation: Low	0.137	0.006	0	0.142	0.006	0	0.117	0.005	0	0.132	0.006	0	0.134	0.006	0
Deprivation: High	-0.138	0.006	0	-0.138	0.006	0	-0.114	0.006	0	-0.115	0.006	0	-0.117	0.006	0
Deprivation: Very high	-0.247	0.006	0	-0.24	0.006	0	-0.202	0.006	0	-0.224	0.006	0	-0.215	0.006	0
Deprivation: Unknown	-0.133	0.044	0.002	-0.069	0.045	0.123	-0.046	0.045	0.31	-0.06	0.047	0.197	-0.051	0.052	0.327
Major language: NotEnglish	0	0.008	0.963	-0.003	0.008	0.651	0.004	0.007	0.603	0.017	0.007	0.019	0.04	0.007	0
Major language: Unknown	0.004	0.047	0.94	-0.028	0.04	0.473	-0.228	0.04	0	-0.179	0.035	0	-0.126	0.033	0
Prior attainment: Very low	-1.375	0.006	0	-1.376	0.006	0	-1.402	0.006	0	-1.458	0.006	0	-1.44	0.006	0
Prior attainment: Low	-0.626	0.006	0	-0.635	0.006	0	-0.646	0.005	0	-0.627	0.006	0	-0.6	0.006	0
Prior attainment: High	0.701	0.006	0	0.71	0.006	0	0.701	0.005	0	0.687	0.006	0	0.66	0.006	0
Prior attainment: Very high	1.637	0.006	0	1.663	0.006	0	1.626	0.006	0	1.61	0.006	0	1.581	0.006	0
Prior attainment: Unknown	-0.297	0.006	0	-0.317	0.006	0	-0.356	0.006	0	-0.411	0.007	0	-0.35	0.007	0
Region: East Midlands	-0.231	0.045	0	-0.192	0.045	0	-0.167	0.039	0	-0.128	0.04	0.001	-0.17	0.046	0
Region: East of England	-0.078	0.041	0.057	-0.098	0.041	0.018	-0.085	0.036	0.018	-0.036	0.037	0.321	-0.092	0.042	0.028
Region: London	0.178	0.037	0	0.199	0.037	0	0.203	0.033	0	0.203	0.033	0	0.163	0.038	0
Region: north-east	-0.2	0.057	0	-0.21	0.057	0	-0.165	0.05	0.001	-0.15	0.051	0.003	-0.17	0.057	0.003
Region: north-west	-0.19	0.038	0	-0.179	0.039	0	-0.156	0.034	0	-0.128	0.034	0	-0.168	0.039	0
Region: south-west	-0.062	0.042	0.144	-0.058	0.042	0.172	-0.031	0.037	0.396	0.018	0.038	0.63	-0.059	0.043	0.168
Region: West Midlands	-0.208	0.041	0	-0.21	0.041	0	-0.133	0.036	0	-0.103	0.037	0.005	-0.144	0.041	0.001
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	-0.184	0.043	0	-0.133	0.044	0.002	-0.134	0.038	0	-0.118	0.039	0.002	-0.157	0.044	0
SEND: SEND	-0.757	0.006	0	-0.719	0.006	0	-0.732	0.005	0	-0.755	0.005	0	-0.682	0.006	0

Table E1.5 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade 7 and above in GCSE

Model term	2018 estimate	2018 SE	2018 p	2019 estimate	2019 SE	2019 p	2020 estimate	2020 SE	2020 p	2021 estimate	2021 SE	2021 p	2022 estimate	2022 SE	2022 p
Intercept	0.164	0.011	0	0.165	0.011	0	0.242	0.012	0	0.261	0.066	0	0.227	0.011	0
Centre Type: Free	-0.011	0.012	0.364	-0.015	0.012	0.19	-0.002	0.011	0.846	0.01	0.011	0.386	-0.014	0.012	0.235
Centre Type: FurE	-0.074	0.019	0	-0.081	0.018	0	-0.1	0.017	0	-0.092	0.017	0	-0.107	0.018	0
Centre Type: Indp	0.258	0.005	0	0.254	0.005	0	0.291	0.006	0	0.31	0.006	0	0.242	0.006	0
Centre Type: Other	-0.061	0.006	0	-0.054	0.006	0	-0.055	0.006	0	-0.052	0.006	0	-0.069	0.007	0
Centre Type: SecComp	-0.016	0.004	0	-0.017	0.004	0	-0.014	0.004	0	-0.01	0.004	0.008	-0.018	0.004	0
Centre Type: SecMod	-0.039	0.014	0.004	-0.037	0.014	0.008	-0.036	0.013	0.006	-0.028	0.013	0.032	-0.043	0.014	0.002
Centre Type: SecSel	0.16	0.013	0	0.166	0.013	0	0.153	0.012	0	0.141	0.012	0	0.169	0.013	0
Centre Type: Sixth	-0.008	0.042	0.858	0.055	0.045	0.222	0.097	0.044	0.029	0.012	0.045	0.783	-0.001	0.047	0.977
Centre Type: Tert	-0.069	0.031	0.024	-0.069	0.029	0.018	-0.064	0.028	0.02	-0.055	0.027	0.046	-0.06	0.029	0.041
Ethnicity: ABAN	0.075	0.003	0	0.086	0.003	0	0.093	0.003	0	0.108	0.003	0	0.102	0.003	0
Ethnicity: AIND	0.099	0.002	0	0.102	0.002	0	0.11	0.003	0	0.127	0.003	0	0.125	0.002	0
Ethnicity: AOTH	0.079	0.003	0	0.087	0.003	0	0.09	0.003	0	0.115	0.003	0	0.097	0.003	0
Ethnicity: APKN	0.04	0.002	0	0.046	0.002	0	0.046	0.002	0	0.058	0.002	0	0.057	0.002	0
Ethnicity: BAFR	0.036	0.002	0	0.04	0.002	0	0.035	0.002	0	0.045	0.002	0	0.046	0.002	0
Ethnicity: BCRB	-0.021	0.003	0	-0.019	0.003	0	-0.025	0.003	0	-0.02	0.004	0	-0.021	0.003	0
Ethnicity: BOTH	0.018	0.004	0	0.017	0.004	0	0.017	0.004	0	0.019	0.004	0	0.027	0.004	0
Ethnicity: CHNE	0.163	0.006	0	0.16	0.006	0	0.192	0.006	0	0.191	0.006	0	0.193	0.006	0
Ethnicity: MOTH	0.033	0.003	0	0.04	0.003	0	0.029	0.003	0	0.037	0.003	0	0.04	0.003	0
Ethnicity: MWAS	0.049	0.003	0	0.054	0.003	0	0.057	0.003	0	0.056	0.003	0	0.065	0.003	0
Ethnicity: MWBA	0.013	0.005	0.004	0.023	0.004	0	0.025	0.004	0	0.02	0.004	0	0.023	0.004	0
Ethnicity: MWBC	-0.014	0.003	0	-0.014	0.003	0	-0.018	0.003	0	-0.023	0.003	0	-0.021	0.003	0
Ethnicity: OOTH	0.048	0.003	0	0.048	0.003	0	0.049	0.003	0	0.064	0.003	0	0.066	0.003	0
Ethnicity: WIRI	0.02	0.006	0.001	0.02	0.006	0.001	0.026	0.007	0	0.028	0.007	0	0.031	0.007	0
Ethnicity: WIRT	-0.027	0.025	0.279	-0.012	0.021	0.57	-0.036	0.021	0.091	-0.032	0.023	0.155	-0.033	0.021	0.117
Ethnicity: WOTH	0.038	0.002	0	0.038	0.002	0	0.039	0.002	0	0.049	0.002	0	0.052	0.002	0
Ethnicity: WROM	-0.039	0.008	0	-0.038	0.008	0	-0.058	0.008	0	-0.05	0.008	0	-0.03	0.008	0
Ethnicity: Unknown	0.004	0.003	0.213	0.006	0.003	0.051	0.002	0.003	0.547	0.014	0.003	0	0.015	0.003	0
FSM: FSM	-0.028	0.001	0	-0.029	0.001	0	-0.04	0.001	0	-0.05	0.001	0	-0.045	0.001	0
FSM: Unknown	-0.018	0.013	0.152	-0.025	0.012	0.031	0.01	0.013	0.447	0.004	0.013	0.774	-0.007	0.013	0.585
Gender: Male	-0.05	0.001	0	-0.054	0.001	0	-0.073	0.001	0	-0.073	0.001	0	-0.057	0.001	0
Deprivation: Very low	0.042	0.001	0	0.042	0.001	0	0.039	0.001	0	0.045	0.001	0	0.043	0.001	0
Deprivation: Low	0.018	0.001	0	0.018	0.001	0	0.017	0.001	0	0.02	0.001	0	0.018	0.001	0
Deprivation: High	-0.015	0.001	0	-0.016	0.001	0	-0.016	0.001	0	-0.016	0.001	0	-0.015	0.001	0
Deprivation: Very high	-0.023	0.001	0	-0.024	0.001	0	-0.025	0.001	0	-0.028	0.001	0	-0.024	0.001	0
Deprivation: Unknown	-0.011	0.008	0.174	-0.003	0.009	0.75	0.003	0.01	0.753	-0.012	0.01	0.2	-0.005	0.01	0.6
Major language: NotEnglish	0.001	0.001	0.672	0.001	0.001	0.538	0.005	0.002	0.001	0.004	0.001	0.01	0.006	0.001	0
Major language: Unknown	0.007	0.009	0.429	-0.001	0.008	0.94	-0.025	0.008	0.003	-0.017	0.007	0.018	-0.01	0.006	0.129
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.076	0.001	0	-0.078	0.001	0	-0.115	0.001	0	-0.13	0.001	0	-0.11	0.001	0
Prior attainment: Low	-0.058	0.001	0	-0.058	0.001	0	-0.084	0.001	0	-0.091	0.001	0	-0.078	0.001	0
Prior attainment: High	0.125	0.001	0	0.126	0.001	0	0.16	0.001	0	0.161	0.001	0	0.137	0.001	0
Prior attainment: Very high	0.372	0.001	0	0.373	0.001	0	0.423	0.001	0	0.422	0.001	0	0.384	0.001	0
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.052	0.001	0	0.049	0.001	0	0.043	0.001	0	0.037	0.001	0	0.038	0.001	0
Region: East Midlands	-0.036	0.007	0	-0.03	0.007	0	-0.032	0.007	0	-0.026	0.007	0	-0.03	0.007	0
Region: East of England	-0.011	0.006	0.07	-0.012	0.006	0.054	-0.016	0.006	0.009	-0.01	0.006	0.103	-0.013	0.006	0.053
Region: London	0.033	0.006	0	0.037	0.006	0	0.038	0.005	0	0.036	0.006	0	0.039	0.006	0
Region: north-east	-0.028	0.009	0.002	-0.031	0.009	0	-0.029	0.008	0.001	-0.026	0.008	0.002	-0.022	0.009	0.016
Region: north-west	-0.026	0.006	0	-0.024	0.006	0	-0.024	0.006	0	-0.018	0.006	0.001	-0.022	0.006	0
Region: south-west	-0.014	0.006	0.029	-0.012	0.007	0.063	-0.013	0.006	0.039	-0.003	0.006	0.656	-0.011	0.007	0.094
Region: West Midlands	-0.033	0.006	0	-0.031	0.006	0	-0.027	0.006	0	-0.023	0.006	0	-0.024	0.006	0
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	-0.029	0.007	0	-0.02	0.007	0.002	-0.021	0.006	0.001	-0.017	0.006	0.008	-0.021	0.007	0.002
SEND: SEND	-0.04	0.001	0	-0.037	0.001	0	-0.05	0.001	0	-0.057	0.001	0	-0.045	0.001	0

Table E1.6 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade 4 and above in GCSE

Model term	2018 estimate	2018 SE	2018 p	2019 estimate	2019 SE	2019 p	2020 estimate	2020 SE	2020 p	2021 estimate	2021 SE	2021 p	2022 estimate	2022 SE	2022 p
Intercept α	0.815	0.018	0	0.814	0.016	0	0.933	0.014	0	0.918	0.012	0	0.867	0.015	0
Centre Type: Free	-0.031	0.012	0.01	-0.036	0.012	0.004	-0.015	0.01	0.145	-0.02	0.01	0.045	-0.056	0.012	0
Centre Type: FurE	-0.162	0.02	0	-0.216	0.019	0	-0.205	0.016	0	-0.178	0.015	0	-0.264	0.018	0
Centre Type: Indp	0.315	0.006	0	0.314	0.006	0	0.248	0.006	0	0.208	0.005	0	0.199	0.006	0
Centre Type: Other	-0.221	0.007	0	-0.216	0.007	0	-0.164	0.006	0	-0.158	0.006	0	-0.236	0.007	0
Centre Type: SecComp	-0.004	0.004	0.341	-0.005	0.004	0.275	-0.001	0.004	0.889	0	0.003	0.995	0	0.004	0.984
Centre Type: SecMod	-0.035	0.014	0.015	-0.03	0.014	0.04	-0.015	0.012	0.235	-0.026	0.011	0.021	-0.024	0.014	0.082
Centre Type: SecSel	0.098	0.013	0	0.091	0.013	0	0.067	0.011	0	0.062	0.01	0	0.074	0.013	0
Centre Type: Sixth	0.021	0.045	0.635	0.085	0.048	0.076	0.054	0.042	0.195	0.05	0.041	0.222	0.003	0.046	0.955
Centre Type: Tert	-0.077	0.033	0.018	-0.086	0.031	0.005	-0.091	0.026	0.001	-0.081	0.024	0.001	-0.185	0.029	0
Ethnicity: ABAN	0.116	0.004	0	0.119	0.004	0	0.103	0.003	0	0.101	0.003	0	0.118	0.003	0
Ethnicity: AIND	0.097	0.003	0	0.092	0.003	0	0.07	0.002	0	0.07	0.002	0	0.088	0.002	0
Ethnicity: AOTH	0.095	0.003	0	0.092	0.003	0	0.07	0.003	0	0.076	0.003	0	0.087	0.003	0
Ethnicity: APKN	0.072	0.003	0	0.069	0.002	0	0.056	0.002	0	0.054	0.002	0	0.068	0.002	0
Ethnicity: BAFR	0.081	0.002	0	0.076	0.002	0	0.064	0.002	0	0.072	0.002	0	0.088	0.002	0
Ethnicity: BCRB	-0.021	0.004	0	-0.022	0.004	0	-0.002	0.003	0.521	-0.003	0.003	0.433	-0.01	0.004	0.005
Ethnicity: BOTH	0.04	0.005	0	0.034	0.005	0	0.034	0.004	0	0.044	0.004	0	0.055	0.004	0
Ethnicity: CHNE	0.127	0.007	0	0.114	0.006	0	0.095	0.006	0	0.09	0.006	0	0.113	0.006	0
Ethnicity: MOTH	0.043	0.003	0	0.042	0.003	0	0.028	0.003	0	0.033	0.003	0	0.041	0.003	0
Ethnicity: MWAS	0.037	0.004	0	0.041	0.004	0	0.032	0.003	0	0.028	0.003	0	0.048	0.003	0
Ethnicity: MWBA	0.034	0.005	0	0.042	0.005	0	0.027	0.004	0	0.032	0.004	0	0.042	0.004	0
Ethnicity: MWBC	-0.016	0.003	0	-0.017	0.003	0	-0.018	0.003	0	-0.016	0.003	0	-0.018	0.003	0
Ethnicity: OOTH	0.06	0.003	0	0.057	0.003	0	0.042	0.003	0	0.048	0.003	0	0.057	0.003	0
Ethnicity: WIRI	0.024	0.007	0.001	0.02	0.007	0.003	0.008	0.007	0.225	0.024	0.006	0	0.019	0.007	0.005
Ethnicity: WIRT	-0.127	0.029	0	-0.094	0.024	0	-0.09	0.021	0	-0.123	0.022	0	-0.091	0.022	0
Ethnicity: WOTH	0.04	0.002	0	0.036	0.002	0	0.025	0.002	0	0.033	0.002	0	0.047	0.002	0
Ethnicity: WROM	-0.238	0.009	0	-0.229	0.009	0	-0.244	0.008	0	-0.252	0.008	0	-0.193	0.008	0
Ethnicity: Unknown	0.001	0.004	0.85	-0.006	0.004	0.084	-0.007	0.003	0.033	0	0.003	0.972	0.008	0.003	0.006
FSM: FSM	-0.085	0.001	0	-0.086	0.001	0	-0.094	0.001	0	-0.099	0.001	0	-0.103	0.001	0
FSM: Unknown	-0.102	0.014	0	-0.095	0.013	0	-0.015	0.013	0.255	0.001	0.012	0.933	0.003	0.013	0.795
Gender: Male	-0.072	0.001	0	-0.073	0.001	0	-0.066	0.001	0	-0.05	0.001	0	-0.049	0.001	0
Deprivation: Very low	0.051	0.001	0	0.051	0.001	0	0.035	0.001	0	0.038	0.001	0	0.043	0.001	0
Deprivation: Low	0.026	0.001	0	0.027	0.001	0	0.021	0.001	0	0.021	0.001	0	0.024	0.001	0
Deprivation: High	-0.029	0.001	0	-0.028	0.001	0	-0.022	0.001	0	-0.021	0.001	0	-0.022	0.001	0
Deprivation: Very high	-0.055	0.001	0	-0.052	0.001	0	-0.041	0.001	0	-0.044	0.001	0	-0.045	0.001	0
Deprivation: Unknown	-0.02	0.01	0.039	-0.016	0.01	0.091	-0.017	0.01	0.074	-0.006	0.009	0.545	-0.016	0.011	0.139
Major language: NotEnglish	0.003	0.002	0.087	0.001	0.002	0.523	-0.004	0.002	0.011	0.002	0.001	0.106	0.009	0.001	0
Major language: Unknown	0.002	0.01	0.811	-0.008	0.009	0.383	-0.045	0.008	0	-0.035	0.007	0	-0.027	0.007	0
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.391	0.001	0	-0.388	0.001	0	-0.358	0.001	0	-0.35	0.001	0	-0.367	0.001	0
Prior attainment: Low	-0.157	0.001	0	-0.158	0.001	0	-0.119	0.001	0	-0.105	0.001	0	-0.119	0.001	0
Prior attainment: High	0.103	0.001	0	0.103	0.001	0	0.059	0.001	0	0.056	0.001	0	0.073	0.001	0
Prior attainment: Very high	0.149	0.001	0	0.152	0.001	0	0.078	0.001	0	0.073	0.001	0	0.104	0.001	0
Prior attainment: Unknown	-0.146	0.001	0	-0.146	0.001	0	-0.161	0.001	0	-0.167	0.001	0	-0.15	0.001	0
Region: East Midlands	-0.031	0.007	0	-0.027	0.007	0	-0.018	0.006	0.004	-0.014	0.006	0.013	-0.015	0.007	0.037
Region: East of England	-0.01	0.007	0.14	-0.015	0.007	0.023	-0.008	0.006	0.147	-0.001	0.005	0.915	-0.01	0.006	0.138
Region: London	0.022	0.006	0	0.024	0.006	0	0.025	0.005	0	0.02	0.005	0	0.012	0.006	0.047
Region: north-east	-0.023	0.009	0.012	-0.027	0.009	0.003	-0.015	0.008	0.048	-0.01	0.007	0.172	-0.018	0.009	0.037
Region: north-west	-0.025	0.006	0	-0.026	0.006	0	-0.019	0.005	0	-0.014	0.005	0.004	-0.021	0.006	0.001
Region: south-west	-0.005	0.007	0.472	-0.004	0.007	0.548	0.005	0.006	0.413	0.008	0.005	0.136	-0.001	0.007	0.843
Region: West Midlands	-0.028	0.007	0	-0.027	0.007	0	-0.009	0.006	0.094	-0.005	0.005	0.33	-0.014	0.006	0.031
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	-0.02	0.007	0.004	-0.013	0.007	0.06	-0.011	0.006	0.055	-0.01	0.006	0.082	-0.015	0.007	0.024
SEND: SEND	-0.177	0.001	0	-0.169	0.001	0	-0.185	0.001	0	-0.176	0.001	0	-0.158	0.001	0

Appendix E.2 - VTQ

Table E2.1 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 1/2 Technical Awards

Factor	2018 AME	2018 p	2019 AME	2019 p	2020 AME	2020 p	2021 AME	2021 p	2022 AME	2022 p
Ethnicity: White Irish	-0.012 (0.016)	0.428	0.006 (0.011)	0.565	-0.01 (0.012)	0.388	-0.01 (0.01)	0.329	-0.013 (0.009)	0.157
Ethnicity: AOWB	-0.006 (0.003)	0.066	0 (0.002)	0.865	0.001 (0.002)	0.807	0.008 (0.002)	0.001	0.002 (0.002)	0.406
Ethnicity: White and Black Caribbean	0.003 (0.006)	0.559	-0.004 (0.004)	0.325	-0.004 (0.004)	0.295	-0.008 (0.004)	0.026	-0.005 (0.004)	0.129
Ethnicity: White and Black African	0.004 (0.009)	0.697	0.017 (0.007)	0.023	0 (0.007)	0.994	0.005 (0.006)	0.354	0.004 (0.005)	0.487
Ethnicity: White and Asian	0.024 (0.008)	0.003	0.016 (0.006)	0.005	0.019 (0.006)	0.001	0.017 (0.005)	<0.001	0.014 (0.004)	0.002
Ethnicity: AOMMB	0.022 (0.006)	<0.001	0.015 (0.004)	0.001	0.009 (0.004)	0.037	0.013 (0.004)	<0.001	0.011 (0.004)	0.002
Ethnicity: Indian	0.032 (0.006)	<0.001	0.015 (0.004)	<0.001	0.042 (0.004)	<0.001	0.05 (0.004)	<0.001	0.029 (0.003)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Pakistani	0.011 (0.004)	0.008	0.001 (0.003)	0.621	0 (0.003)	0.877	0.007 (0.002)	0.006	-0.005 (0.002)	0.024
Ethnicity: Bangladeshi	0.035 (0.008)	<0.001	0.022 (0.005)	<0.001	0.021 (0.005)	<0.001	0.031 (0.005)	<0.001	0.018 (0.004)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Chinese	0.085 (0.02)	<0.001	0.039 (0.013)	0.003	0.084 (0.014)	<0.001	0.084 (0.012)	<0.001	0.083 (0.011)	<0.001
Ethnicity: AOAB	0.02 (0.007)	0.007	-0.003 (0.005)	0.516	0.029 (0.005)	<0.001	0.023 (0.004)	<0.001	0.019 (0.004)	<0.001
Ethnicity: African	0.007 (0.005)	0.14	0.009 (0.003)	0.006	-0.008 (0.003)	0.007	0.002 (0.003)	0.492	0.006 (0.003)	0.015
Ethnicity: Caribbean	-0.002 (0.006)	0.778	0.008 (0.005)	0.1	-0.006 (0.005)	0.203	0.004 (0.005)	0.441	0.003 (0.005)	0.527
Ethnicity: AOBACB	-0.003 (0.008)	0.745	0.006 (0.006)	0.314	0.016 (0.007)	0.017	-0.002 (0.006)	0.78	0.003 (0.006)	0.645
Ethnicity: AOEG	-0.001 (0.007)	0.844	-0.002 (0.005)	0.678	0.014 (0.005)	0.003	0.01 (0.004)	0.018	0.002 (0.004)	0.629
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.002 (0.007)	0.723	-0.016 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.011 (0.005)	0.013	-0.008 (0.004)	0.032	-0.004 (0.004)	0.311
Gender: Male	-0.034 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.014 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.075 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.067 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.05 (0.001)	<0.001
Gender: Unknown	0.397 (0.03)	<0.001	0.296 (0.02)	<0.001	-0.104 (0.034)	0.002	-0.079 (0.017)	<0.001	-0.007 (0.017)	0.662
SEND: Yes	-0.033 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.03 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.051 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.053 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.04 (0.001)	<0.001
SEND: Unknown	-0.015 (0.01)	0.124	0.039 (0.011)	<0.001	-0.002 (0.012)	0.858	-0.005 (0.011)	0.659	0.021 (0.031)	0.488
FSM: Yes	-0.019 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.02 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.033 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.015 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.034 (0.001)	<0.001
FSM: Unknown	0.022 (0.01)	0.031	0.022 (0.008)	0.005	0.013 (0.008)	0.119	0.062 (0.01)	<0.001	-0.01 (0.028)	0.711
IDACI: Very low	0.013 (0.002)	<0.001	0.013 (0.002)	<0.001	0.016 (0.002)	<0.001	0.026 (0.002)	<0.001	0.017 (0.001)	<0.001
IDACI: Low	0.004 (0.002)	0.068	0.007 (0.002)	<0.001	0.003 (0.002)	0.099	0.011 (0.001)	<0.001	0.008 (0.001)	<0.001
IDACI: High	-0.002 (0.002)	0.231	-0.001 (0.002)	0.471	-0.009 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.007 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.001 (0.001)	0.43
IDACI: Very high	-0.005 (0.002)	0.025	-0.003 (0.002)	0.076	-0.004 (0.002)	0.018	-0.013 (0.001)	<0.001	-0.001 (0.001)	0.427
IDACI: Unknown	-0.005 (0.011)	0.657	-0.015 (0.007)	0.029	-0.009 (0.011)	0.408	0.01 (0.011)	0.372	0.003 (0.013)	0.82
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.043 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.033 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.065 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.064 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.051 (0.002)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Low	-0.028 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.02 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.036 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.034 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.028 (0.001)	<0.001
Prior attainment: High	0.041 (0.003)	<0.001	0.037 (0.002)	<0.001	0.057 (0.002)	<0.001	0.049 (0.002)	<0.001	0.042 (0.002)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Very high	0.13 (0.007)	<0.001	0.117 (0.004)	<0.001	0.18 (0.003)	<0.001	0.173 (0.003)	<0.001	0.146 (0.003)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Unknown	-0.003 (0.002)	0.09	0.003 (0.001)	0.027	0.003 (0.002)	0.081	0.001 (0.001)	0.39	0.006 (0.001)	<0.001

Table E2.2 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 1/2 Technical Certificates

Factor	2018 AME	2018 p	2019 AME	2019 p	2020 AME	2020 p	2021 AME	2021 p	2022 AME	2022 p
Ethnicity: White Irish	-0.188 (0.099)	0.056	0.037 (0.076)	0.628	-0.046 (0.072)	0.521	0.136 (0.08)	0.089	0.029 (0.054)	0.584
Ethnicity: AOWB	-0.014 (0.018)	0.427	-0.013 (0.01)	0.181	-0.004 (0.014)	0.796	-0.01 (0.011)	0.372	-0.032 (0.008)	<0.001
Ethnicity: White and Black Caribbean	-0.093 (0.087)	0.282	-0.147 (0.033)	<0.001	-0.035 (0.04)	0.38	-0.034 (0.025)	0.18	-0.024 (0.024)	0.328
Ethnicity: White and Black African	-0.101 (0.111)	0.362	-0.193 (0.041)	<0.001	-0.04 (0.059)	0.498	-0.045 (0.041)	0.279	-0.042 (0.038)	0.266
Ethnicity: White and Asian	-0.123 (0.082)	0.132	-0.078 (0.036)	0.031	-0.074 (0.047)	0.118	0.001 (0.039)	0.981	0.016 (0.032)	0.609
Ethnicity: AOMMB	-0.083 (0.085)	0.327	-0.071 (0.036)	0.048	-0.027 (0.038)	0.469	-0.03 (0.026)	0.259	-0.038 (0.022)	0.088
Ethnicity: Indian	-0.11 (0.042)	0.008	-0.033 (0.02)	0.112	-0.049 (0.022)	0.025	0.003 (0.022)	0.872	-0.012 (0.018)	0.485
Ethnicity: Pakistani	-0.11 (0.046)	0.017	-0.083 (0.021)	<0.001	-0.033 (0.02)	0.096	-0.044 (0.015)	0.003	-0.023 (0.015)	0.118
Ethnicity: Bangladeshi	-0.141 (0.071)	0.046	0.008 (0.035)	0.828	0.035 (0.029)	0.228	-0.005 (0.022)	0.804	-0.045 (0.023)	0.048
Ethnicity: Chinese	0.016 (0.068)	0.819	-0.029 (0.038)	0.454	0.075 (0.071)	0.288	0.157 (0.091)	0.084	0.061 (0.036)	0.095
Ethnicity: AOAB	-0.026 (0.043)	0.547	-0.082 (0.022)	<0.001	-0.031 (0.024)	0.202	-0.019 (0.022)	0.4	-0.028 (0.018)	0.117
Ethnicity: African	-0.237 (0.052)	<0.001	-0.1 (0.022)	<0.001	-0.049 (0.018)	0.006	-0.004 (0.017)	0.801	-0.027 (0.017)	0.119
Ethnicity: Caribbean	-0.179 (0.063)	0.005	-0.124 (0.029)	<0.001	-0.111 (0.025)	<0.001	-0.022 (0.025)	0.385	-0.075 (0.023)	0.001
Ethnicity: AOBACB	-0.25 (0.135)	0.064	-0.132 (0.041)	0.001	-0.049 (0.045)	0.275	-0.061 (0.024)	0.011	-0.049 (0.028)	0.079
Ethnicity: AOEG	-0.082 (0.042)	0.048	-0.032 (0.022)	0.137	-0.083 (0.021)	<0.001	-0.038 (0.017)	0.023	-0.094 (0.014)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.081 (0.068)	0.236	-0.02 (0.039)	0.603	-0.031 (0.037)	0.392	0.001 (0.031)	0.973	-0.032 (0.026)	0.217
Gender: Male	-0.088 (0.012)	<0.001	-0.056 (0.007)	<0.001	-0.032 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.032 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.015 (0.006)	0.014
Gender: Unknown	0.256 (0.14)	0.069	-0.098 (0.059)	0.095	0.062 (0.038)	0.106	0.12 (0.015)	<0.001	0.099 (0.009)	<0.001
SEND: Yes	0.152 (0.084)	0.068	-0.018 (0.016)	0.266	-0.015 (0.01)	0.141	-0.015 (0.01)	0.129	-0.026 (0.011)	0.017
SEND: Unknown	0.269 (0.046)	<0.001	0.176 (0.015)	<0.001	0.087 (0.01)	<0.001	0.072 (0.008)	<0.001	0.151 (0.012)	<0.001
FSM: Yes	-0.042 (0.067)	0.531	-0.024 (0.021)	0.244	-0.019 (0.013)	0.15	0 (0.012)	0.986	-0.02 (0.011)	0.064
FSM: Unknown	0.206 (0.032)	<0.001	0.229 (0.013)	<0.001	0.204 (0.021)	<0.001	0.263 (0.022)	<0.001	0.003 (0.062)	0.957
IDACI: Very low	0.043 (0.018)	0.021	0.027 (0.012)	0.02	-0.012 (0.018)	0.511	0.027 (0.019)	0.14	0.014 (0.008)	0.083
IDACI: Low	0.012 (0.018)	0.521	0.014 (0.012)	0.248	-0.025 (0.018)	0.154	0.016 (0.017)	0.349	-0.007 (0.008)	0.4
IDACI: High	-0.047 (0.022)	0.032	-0.017 (0.014)	0.222	-0.058 (0.019)	0.002	-0.004 (0.017)	0.802	-0.002 (0.008)	0.795
IDACI: Very high	-0.043 (0.029)	0.143	-0.068 (0.017)	<0.001	-0.054 (0.019)	0.004	-0.04 (0.019)	0.037	-0.031 (0.009)	<0.001
IDACI: Unknown	-0.162 (0.068)	0.017	-0.213 (0.036)	<0.001	-0.155 (0.045)	0.001	-0.139 (0.043)	0.001	0.038 (0.062)	0.538
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.174 (0.072)	0.017	-0.053 (0.019)	0.005	-0.042 (0.012)	0.001	-0.044 (0.011)	<0.001	-0.005 (0.016)	0.753
Prior attainment: Low	-0.187 (0.069)	0.006	-0.044 (0.02)	0.026	-0.025 (0.013)	0.045	-0.035 (0.011)	0.002	-0.011 (0.016)	0.512
Prior attainment: High	0.032 (0.042)	0.451	0.064 (0.02)	0.001	0.024 (0.015)	0.102	0.008 (0.013)	0.533	0.025 (0.018)	0.164
Prior attainment: Very high	0.162 (0.039)	<0.001	0.148 (0.019)	<0.001	0.11 (0.018)	<0.001	0.059 (0.015)	<0.001	0.063 (0.02)	0.002
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.099 (0.036)	0.006	0.057 (0.016)	<0.001	-0.008 (0.011)	0.462	-0.001 (0.01)	0.909	0.054 (0.013)	<0.001

Table E2.3 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 3 Applied Generals

Factor	2018 AME	2018 p	2019 AME	2019 p	2020 AME	2020 p	2021 AME	2021 p	2022 AME	2022 p
Ethnicity: White Irish	-0.006 (0.017)	0.731	-0.003 (0.015)	0.834	-0.047 (0.02)	0.018	-0.015 (0.019)	0.433	-0.004 (0.013)	0.766
Ethnicity: AOWB	-0.009 (0.004)	0.036	-0.01 (0.004)	0.015	-0.02 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.028 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.015 (0.003)	<0.001
Ethnicity: White and Black Caribbean	-0.01 (0.008)	0.201	-0.018 (0.008)	0.023	-0.037 (0.01)	<0.001	-0.031 (0.009)	0.001	-0.022 (0.006)	<0.001
Ethnicity: White and Black African	-0.004 (0.013)	0.753	-0.037 (0.01)	<0.001	-0.041 (0.015)	0.005	-0.05 (0.013)	<0.001	-0.039 (0.007)	<0.001
Ethnicity: White and Asian	-0.008 (0.009)	0.342	-0.02 (0.009)	0.02	-0.016 (0.012)	0.188	-0.024 (0.01)	0.015	-0.011 (0.006)	0.06
Ethnicity: AOMMB	-0.018 (0.006)	0.004	-0.011 (0.007)	0.127	-0.034 (0.009)	<0.001	-0.038 (0.008)	<0.001	-0.032 (0.005)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Indian	-0.005 (0.005)	0.344	-0.001 (0.005)	0.778	-0.006 (0.007)	0.36	-0.009 (0.006)	0.127	0.002 (0.004)	0.639
Ethnicity: Pakistani	-0.007 (0.004)	0.107	-0.016 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.02 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.029 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.015 (0.003)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Bangladeshi	0.001 (0.007)	0.876	-0.012 (0.006)	0.04	-0.022 (0.008)	0.004	-0.024 (0.007)	0.001	-0.011 (0.005)	0.012
Ethnicity: Chinese	0.02 (0.018)	0.27	0.009 (0.017)	0.594	0 (0.021)	0.993	0.018 (0.021)	0.385	0.01 (0.013)	0.429
Ethnicity: AOAB	-0.011 (0.006)	0.048	-0.02 (0.006)	0.001	-0.046 (0.008)	<0.001	-0.037 (0.007)	<0.001	-0.016 (0.005)	0.001
Ethnicity: African	-0.027 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.031 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.061 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.069 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.044 (0.003)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Caribbean	-0.019 (0.007)	0.005	-0.031 (0.007)	<0.001	-0.061 (0.009)	<0.001	-0.035 (0.009)	<0.001	-0.054 (0.005)	<0.001
Ethnicity: AOBACB	-0.037 (0.007)	<0.001	-0.023 (0.01)	0.015	-0.059 (0.011)	<0.001	-0.053 (0.011)	<0.001	-0.064 (0.005)	<0.001
Ethnicity: AOEG	-0.012 (0.007)	0.081	-0.01 (0.007)	0.152	-0.028 (0.008)	0.001	-0.027 (0.008)	<0.001	-0.022 (0.005)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.005 (0.008)	0.536	-0.004 (0.007)	0.589	-0.017 (0.009)	0.048	-0.029 (0.008)	0.001	-0.018 (0.006)	0.001
Gender: Male	-0.018 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.015 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.055 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.063 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.04 (0.002)	<0.001
Gender: Unknown	-0.056 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.068 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.185 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.093 (0.063)	0.141	-0.067 (0.033)	0.044
SEND: Yes	-0.005 (0.004)	0.226	0.001 (0.004)	0.811	0.003 (0.005)	0.618	-0.014 (0.005)	0.003	0.011 (0.003)	<0.001
SEND: Unknown	-0.011 (0.008)	0.203	0.003 (0.008)	0.703	-0.029 (0.012)	0.014	-0.039 (0.011)	0.001	0.01 (0.01)	0.298
FSM: Yes	0.001 (0.004)	0.881	-0.001 (0.003)	0.698	-0.007 (0.004)	0.081	-0.016 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.004 (0.002)	0.067
FSM: Unknown	0.016 (0.006)	0.004	0.012 (0.005)	0.029	0.016 (0.006)	0.005	0.051 (0.011)	<0.001	-0.018 (0.017)	0.275
IDACI: Very low	0.005 (0.003)	0.06	0.005 (0.003)	0.12	-0.008 (0.004)	0.029	0.016 (0.003)	<0.001	0.014 (0.002)	<0.001
IDACI: Low	0.003 (0.003)	0.246	0 (0.003)	0.886	-0.008 (0.004)	0.031	0.004 (0.003)	0.182	0.007 (0.002)	0.001
IDACI: High	-0.002 (0.003)	0.45	0 (0.003)	0.942	0.005 (0.004)	0.163	-0.002 (0.003)	0.634	-0.005 (0.002)	0.012
IDACI: Very high	-0.002 (0.003)	0.487	0.001 (0.003)	0.762	0.023 (0.004)	<0.001	0 (0.003)	0.914	-0.011 (0.002)	<0.001
IDACI: Unknown	0.001 (0.011)	0.919	-0.014 (0.009)	0.149	-0.007 (0.014)	0.642	0.007 (0.013)	0.614	0.024 (0.016)	0.146
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.016 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.021 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.065 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.08 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.063 (0.003)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Low	-0.011 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.014 (0.002)	<0.001	-0.036 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.048 (0.003)	<0.001	-0.042 (0.002)	<0.001
Prior attainment: High	0.027 (0.003)	<0.001	0.037 (0.003)	<0.001	0.062 (0.003)	<0.001	0.078 (0.003)	<0.001	0.063 (0.003)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Very high	0.125 (0.007)	<0.001	0.154 (0.007)	<0.001	0.234 (0.005)	<0.001	0.265 (0.005)	<0.001	0.229 (0.006)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.02 (0.003)	<0.001	0.029 (0.003)	<0.001	0.025 (0.004)	<0.001	0.017 (0.003)	<0.001	0.025 (0.003)	<0.001

Table E2.4 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 3 Tech Levels

Factor	2018 AME	2018 p	2019 AME	2019 p	2020 AME	2020 p	2021 AME	2021 p	2022 AME	2022 p
Ethnicity: White Irish	0.032 (0.052)	0.532	-0.05 (0.039)	0.198	0.085 (0.07)	0.224	-0.004 (0.043)	0.933	0.015 (0.028)	0.582
Ethnicity: AOWB	0.004 (0.01)	0.67	-0.005 (0.009)	0.595	-0.016 (0.013)	0.196	-0.011 (0.01)	0.262	0.001 (0.006)	0.856
Ethnicity: White and Black Caribbean	-0.043 (0.02)	0.034	0 (0.027)	0.993	-0.026 (0.023)	0.271	-0.013 (0.023)	0.574	-0.021 (0.011)	0.073
Ethnicity: White and Black African	-0.032 (0.039)	0.403	-0.058 (0.029)	0.045	-0.055 (0.031)	0.079	-0.078 (0.026)	0.003	0.007 (0.018)	0.721
Ethnicity: White and Asian	0.001 (0.03)	0.963	-0.066 (0.021)	0.001	-0.004 (0.03)	0.89	-0.02 (0.025)	0.418	0.01 (0.014)	0.488
Ethnicity: AOMMB	-0.028 (0.019)	0.133	-0.043 (0.023)	0.058	0.041 (0.024)	0.083	-0.028 (0.018)	0.115	-0.011 (0.011)	0.343
Ethnicity: Indian	-0.031 (0.015)	0.034	-0.015 (0.016)	0.352	-0.031 (0.016)	0.056	0.019 (0.017)	0.247	0.026 (0.011)	0.018
Ethnicity: Pakistani	-0.016 (0.015)	0.285	-0.053 (0.013)	<0.001	-0.041 (0.014)	0.003	-0.049 (0.013)	<0.001	-0.007 (0.008)	0.345
Ethnicity: Bangladeshi	-0.048 (0.022)	0.028	-0.027 (0.022)	0.224	0.008 (0.026)	0.75	-0.007 (0.021)	0.736	0.006 (0.013)	0.659
Ethnicity: Chinese	0.027 (0.034)	0.416	0.011 (0.04)	0.78	0.043 (0.051)	0.397	-0.023 (0.038)	0.544	0.091 (0.034)	0.007
Ethnicity: AOAB	-0.019 (0.016)	0.244	-0.022 (0.018)	0.224	-0.017 (0.019)	0.382	-0.038 (0.017)	0.025	0.018 (0.012)	0.136
Ethnicity: African	-0.078 (0.013)	<0.001	-0.034 (0.014)	0.018	-0.053 (0.014)	<0.001	-0.037 (0.013)	0.005	-0.03 (0.008)	<0.001
Ethnicity: Caribbean	-0.049 (0.02)	0.013	-0.012 (0.023)	0.593	-0.038 (0.024)	0.102	-0.05 (0.019)	0.007	-0.022 (0.012)	0.059
Ethnicity: AOBACB	-0.049 (0.029)	0.098	-0.068 (0.025)	0.006	-0.014 (0.031)	0.649	-0.052 (0.023)	0.021	-0.024 (0.015)	0.12
Ethnicity: AOEG	-0.014 (0.02)	0.493	-0.062 (0.016)	<0.001	-0.032 (0.02)	0.111	-0.044 (0.017)	0.009	0.005 (0.011)	0.644
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.045 (0.022)	0.041	-0.034 (0.023)	0.134	-0.024 (0.02)	0.225	-0.019 (0.022)	0.369	0.012 (0.012)	0.339
Gender: Male	-0.002 (0.004)	0.568	-0.008 (0.004)	0.045	-0.041 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.048 (0.004)	<0.001	-0.02 (0.003)	<0.001
Gender: Unknown	-0.049 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.044 (0.06)	0.468	0.027 (0.026)	0.298	0.038 (0.024)	0.113	0.04 (0.009)	<0.001
SEND: Yes	-0.013 (0.01)	0.184	-0.019 (0.009)	0.04	0.002 (0.01)	0.829	-0.014 (0.009)	0.106	0.022 (0.007)	0.001
SEND: Unknown	0.029 (0.006)	<0.001	0.038 (0.007)	<0.001	0.013 (0.009)	0.137	0.029 (0.007)	<0.001	0.051 (0.006)	<0.001
FSM: Yes	-0.004 (0.011)	0.717	0.008 (0.011)	0.471	-0.011 (0.009)	0.235	-0.009 (0.008)	0.223	-0.007 (0.005)	0.119
FSM: Unknown	0.087 (0.013)	<0.001	0.095 (0.013)	<0.001	0.072 (0.016)	<0.001	0.091 (0.013)	<0.001	0.007 (0.032)	0.833
IDACI: Very low	0.015 (0.007)	0.029	0.021 (0.008)	0.008	0.003 (0.009)	0.761	0.019 (0.009)	0.044	0.009 (0.004)	0.033
IDACI: Low	0.01 (0.007)	0.123	0.012 (0.008)	0.12	-0.003 (0.009)	0.728	-0.006 (0.009)	0.524	0.002 (0.004)	0.636
IDACI: High	-0.004 (0.007)	0.581	0.003 (0.008)	0.684	-0.017 (0.009)	0.073	-0.032 (0.009)	<0.001	-0.012 (0.004)	0.004
IDACI: Very high	-0.009 (0.008)	0.221	-0.013 (0.009)	0.155	0.006 (0.01)	0.545	-0.033 (0.009)	<0.001	-0.018 (0.004)	<0.001
IDACI: Unknown	-0.017 (0.023)	0.47	-0.047 (0.022)	0.033	-0.043 (0.022)	0.05	-0.07 (0.024)	0.004	0 (0.028)	0.996
Prior attainment: Very low	-0.025 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.043 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.064 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.07 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.053 (0.005)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Low	-0.009 (0.005)	0.083	-0.02 (0.006)	0.001	-0.037 (0.006)	<0.001	-0.034 (0.005)	<0.001	-0.037 (0.004)	<0.001
Prior attainment: High	0.038 (0.007)	<0.001	0.049 (0.008)	<0.001	0.068 (0.008)	<0.001	0.082 (0.007)	<0.001	0.055 (0.006)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Very high	0.161 (0.013)	<0.001	0.182 (0.012)	<0.001	0.243 (0.011)	<0.001	0.249 (0.01)	<0.001	0.214 (0.01)	<0.001
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.062 (0.008)	<0.001	0.067 (0.008)	<0.001	0.027 (0.007)	<0.001	0.029 (0.006)	<0.001	0.028 (0.005)	<0.001

Group	N	MeanGrade	GradeSD	%GradeA	%GradeC	%PA	PAMedian	PAMean	PASD
Centre Type: Academies	169,135	3.52	1.36	24.30	77.64	97.62	63.41	64.04	10.72
Centre Type: Free schools	2,715	3.49	1.54	28.76	75.41	94.04	66.62	66.38	10.91
Centre Type: Further education establishment	8,430	3.10	1.29	13.23	68.70	92.70	58.90	59.58	9.19
Centre Type: Independent school including city training colleges (CTCs)	55,770	4.20	1.29	45.02	89.57	70.52	69.87	70.30	11.99
Centre Type: Other	1,720	3.14	1.38	16.36	68.51	90.69	61.08	61.51	9.31
Centre Type: Secondary comprehensive or middle school	64,545	3.38	1.35	20.52	74.95	97.36	62.17	62.73	10.14
Centre Type: Secondary modern school/high school	1,815	3.01	1.38	13.44	65.86	98.90	58.45	58.36	10.13
Centre Type: Secondary selective school	19,500	3.85	1.36	34.35	83.58	95.16	68.83	69.45	9.85
Centre Type: Sixth form college	74,845	3.44	1.35	21.84	76.19	95.16	61.94	62.70	10.18
Centre Type: Tertiary college	11,920	3.57	1.27	23.53	80.63	95.22	62.41	63.15	9.43
Region: East Midlands	32,750	3.47	1.35	22.98	76.76	94.34	62.71	63.36	10.54
Region: East of England	51,025	3.60	1.37	26.68	79.10	93.86	63.49	64.32	10.94
Region: London	69,225	3.65	1.40	28.99	79.51	91.45	64.58	65.31	11.13
Region: North East	14,860	3.48	1.31	22.13	77.89	94.70	63.03	63.88	10.31
Region: North West	53,065	3.56	1.34	24.66	78.84	95.14	63.41	64.08	10.51
Region: South East	76,960	3.66	1.39	28.82	79.80	91.23	63.95	64.64	11.22
Region: South West	41,760	3.60	1.36	26.66	79.05	91.31	63.49	64.06	10.87
Region: West Midlands	36,270	3.46	1.37	23.11	76.42	93.89	63.49	64.25	10.62
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	34,485	3.51	1.36	24.51	77.42	95.93	63.03	63.84	10.60
Gender: F	242,265	3.63	1.35	26.84	80.15	94.41	64.50	65.07	10.93
Gender: M	168,130	3.51	1.40	25.40	76.49	91.24	62.41	63.25	10.67
Gender: Unknown/Neither	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*	*
Prior attainment: Very low	63,625	2.49	1.18	3.52	50.60	100.00	50.24	49.18	3.86
Prior attainment: Low	67,630	2.94	1.16	7.26	66.92	100.00	56.80	56.75	1.61
Prior attainment: Medium	88,660	3.36	1.16	14.42	78.86	100.00	62.41	62.36	2.00
Prior attainment: High	68,465	3.84	1.13	27.88	88.51	100.00	68.57	68.48	1.75
Prior attainment: Very high	93,745	4.67	1.04	61.10	96.77	100.00	77.15	78.97	5.94
Prior attainment: Unknown	28,270	4.00	1.39	40.42	85.26	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ethnicity: ABAN	4,200	3.29	1.36	19.21	72.20	95.29	63.03	63.52	9.89
Ethnicity: AIND	11,900	3.60	1.40	27.73	78.14	96.81	65.86	66.61	11.28
Ethnicity: AOTH	6,185	3.41	1.43	23.69	73.83	96.70	65.43	66.02	10.91
Ethnicity: APKN	8,915	3.23	1.39	19.14	70.37	95.95	62.41	62.97	10.56
Ethnicity: BAFR	9,660	3.23	1.33	16.97	72.15	94.47	61.29	61.91	9.98
Ethnicity: BCRB	2,360	3.14	1.27	12.77	70.40	97.50	59.50	60.32	9.44
Ethnicity: BOTH	1,440	3.20	1.29	15.02	71.28	95.34	59.50	60.81	9.67
Ethnicity: CHNE	1,830	3.86	1.40	35.50	83.42	94.80	69.53	69.60	11.27
Ethnicity: MOTH	4,860	3.57	1.40	26.76	77.75	96.17	64.58	65.22	10.86
Ethnicity: MWAS	3,780	3.66	1.37	28.11	80.72	96.27	65.86	65.88	10.98
Ethnicity: MWBA	1,390	3.36	1.40	21.37	72.52	96.26	62.41	62.92	10.55
Ethnicity: MWBC	2,455	3.26	1.33	17.59	72.39	97.76	59.50	61.06	10.13
Ethnicity: OOTH	4,530	3.43	1.42	23.38	75.43	95.25	63.71	64.19	10.80
Ethnicity: WBRI	175,485	3.53	1.35	24.38	77.96	98.27	63.49	64.02	10.57
Ethnicity: WIRI	1,385	3.75	1.33	29.24	84.19	97.40	65.43	65.88	10.92
Ethnicity: WOTH **	11,330	3.53	1.38	25.16	77.62	95.22	63.71	64.18	10.97
Ethnicity: Unknown	158,690	3.71	1.37	29.90	81.06	86.06	63.95	64.79	11.20
Major language: English	218,275	3.52	1.36	24.39	77.75	97.80	63.49	64.16	10.64
Major language: Not English	35,880	3.36	1.40	21.47	73.35	95.99	63.03	63.74	10.80
Major language: Unknown	156,245	3.71	1.37	29.95	81.13	85.90	63.95	64.79	11.20
SEND: No SEND	245,255	3.50	1.36	24.07	77.26	97.53	63.49	64.20	10.65
SEND: SEND	9,810	3.36	1.38	20.88	73.40	97.57	61.01	61.24	10.58
SEND: Unknown	155,335	3.72	1.37	30.03	81.19	85.86	63.95	64.81	11.21
FSM: Not FSM	244,445	3.51	1.36	24.31	77.47	97.57	63.71	64.23	10.66
FSM: FSM	10,615	3.13	1.36	15.50	68.82	96.60	59.50	60.77	10.12
FSM: Unknown	155,335	3.72	1.37	30.03	81.19	85.86	63.95	64.81	11.21
Deprivation: Very low	51,920	3.74	1.33	30.04	82.38	97.73	65.43	66.08	10.78
Deprivation: Low	51,845	3.58	1.36	26.00	79.03	97.81	63.95	64.76	10.74
Deprivation: Medium	50,810	3.50	1.36	23.92	77.14	97.72	63.49	64.10	10.58
Deprivation: High	50,610	3.39	1.37	21.27	74.64	97.63	62.71	63.28	10.42
Deprivation: Very high	49,320	3.27	1.36	18.18	72.11	96.72	61.62	62.11	10.36
Deprivation: Unknown	155,890	3.71	1.37	30.00	81.15	85.90	63.95	64.80	11.21

Model term	2018 estimate	2018 SE	2018 p	2019 estimate	2019 SE	2019 p	2020 estimate	2020 SE	2020 p	2021 estimate	2021 SE	2021 p	2022 estimate	2022 SE	2022 p
Intercept α	3.427	0.093	0	3.445	0.094	0	4.104	0.081	0	4.314	0.074	0	3.851	0.089	0
Centre Type: Free	-0.168	0.076	0.028	-0.002	0.076	0.978	-0.044	0.052	0.403	-0.029	0.061	0.643	0.025	0.08	0.754
Centre Type: FurE	-0.074	0.055	0.179	-0.154	0.053	0.004	-0.109	0.04	0.006	-0.215	0.043	0	-0.531	0.054	0
Centre Type: Indp	0.454	0.038	0	0.467	0.036	0	0.346	0.029	0	0.482	0.029	0	0.391	0.034	0
Centre Type: Other	-0.213	0.078	0.007	-0.088	0.075	0.241	0.128	0.057	0.025	0.255	0.063	0	-0.264	0.08	0.001
Centre Type: SecComp	-0.05	0.019	0.008	-0.064	0.019	0.001	-0.003	0.013	0.802	0.014	0.016	0.385	-0.029	0.021	0.155
Centre Type: SecMod	-0.239	0.075	0.001	-0.23	0.074	0.002	-0.055	0.052	0.298	-0.081	0.062	0.191	-0.208	0.08	0.009
Centre Type: SecSel	0.121	0.041	0.003	0.137	0.04	0.001	-0.052	0.027	0.056	-0.028	0.033	0.393	0.224	0.044	0
Centre Type: Sixth	0.031	0.046	0.503	0.034	0.044	0.448	-0.114	0.033	0.001	-0.188	0.036	0	-0.131	0.045	0.004
Centre Type: Tert	0.121	0.073	0.097	0.051	0.072	0.472	-0.103	0.051	0.043	-0.214	0.058	0	-0.157	0.076	0.039
Ethnicity: ABAN	-0.106	0.025	0	-0.114	0.022	0	-0.13	0.019	0	-0.092	0.02	0	-0.071	0.021	0.001
Ethnicity: AIND	0.034	0.015	0.025	0.035	0.014	0.014	0.048	0.012	0	0.099	0.013	0	0.095	0.013	0
Ethnicity: AOTH	-0.103	0.019	0	-0.088	0.018	0	-0.088	0.015	0	-0.004	0.016	0.808	-0.026	0.016	0.12
Ethnicity: APKN	-0.071	0.017	0	-0.063	0.016	0	-0.092	0.014	0	-0.083	0.014	0	-0.034	0.015	0.024
Ethnicity: BAFR	-0.066	0.016	0	-0.056	0.015	0	-0.089	0.013	0	-0.116	0.013	0	-0.007	0.014	0.615
Ethnicity: BCRB	-0.176	0.028	0	-0.164	0.027	0	-0.093	0.026	0	-0.165	0.027	0	-0.112	0.028	0
Ethnicity: BOTH	-0.097	0.036	0.007	-0.094	0.033	0.005	-0.084	0.029	0.004	-0.124	0.029	0	-0.055	0.031	0.076
Ethnicity: CHNE	0.062	0.032	0.055	0.165	0.031	0	0.165	0.028	0	0.121	0.029	0	0.195	0.032	0
Ethnicity: MOTH	-0.028	0.02	0.164	-0.015	0.019	0.418	-0.055	0.016	0.001	-0.039	0.017	0.019	-0.014	0.017	0.408
Ethnicity: MWAS	-0.003	0.022	0.899	0.047	0.022	0.03	0.005	0.018	0.771	0.004	0.019	0.853	0.044	0.02	0.025
Ethnicity: MWBA	-0.101	0.036	0.006	-0.049	0.035	0.161	-0.059	0.03	0.048	-0.068	0.03	0.023	0.032	0.031	0.301
Ethnicity: MWBC	-0.086	0.027	0.002	-0.053	0.026	0.041	-0.09	0.023	0	-0.105	0.025	0	-0.068	0.026	0.008
Ethnicity: OOTH	-0.003	0.022	0.894	0.004	0.021	0.853	0.023	0.018	0.214	0.008	0.019	0.652	0.044	0.019	0.022
Ethnicity: WIRI	0.035	0.037	0.34	0.064	0.036	0.075	0.049	0.032	0.13	0.047	0.034	0.168	0.121	0.037	0.001
Ethnicity: WOTH	0.028	0.015	0.057	0.018	0.014	0.19	0.046	0.012	0	0.01	0.013	0.443	0.007	0.013	0.574
Ethnicity: Unknown	-0.057	0.027	0.033	-0.046	0.024	0.06	-0.066	0.021	0.001	-0.062	0.021	0.003	-0.041	0.021	0.051
FSM: FSM	-0.083	0.014	0	-0.04	0.012	0.001	-0.058	0.01	0	-0.099	0.01	0	-0.096	0.01	0
FSM: Unknown	0.101	0.084	0.231	0.059	0.083	0.479	0.106	0.073	0.142	0.166	0.076	0.028	0.183	0.083	0.028
Gender: Male	0.145	0.005	0	0.104	0.005	0	-0.023	0.004	0	-0.093	0.004	0	0.025	0.005	0
Deprivation: Very low	0.069	0.009	0	0.068	0.009	0	0.044	0.008	0	0.065	0.008	0	0.085	0.009	0
Deprivation: Low	0.025	0.009	0.004	0.021	0.008	0.011	0.019	0.007	0.008	0.032	0.008	0	0.039	0.008	0
Deprivation: High	-0.028	0.009	0.001	-0.037	0.008	0	-0.01	0.007	0.183	-0.05	0.008	0	-0.057	0.008	0
Deprivation: Very high	-0.06	0.01	0	-0.078	0.009	0	-0.04	0.008	0	-0.101	0.009	0	-0.13	0.009	0
Deprivation: Unknown	-0.056	0.059	0.343	-0.074	0.061	0.228	-0.081	0.059	0.169	-0.099	0.062	0.108	-0.112	0.068	0.102
Major language: NotEnglish	-0.029	0.011	0.007	0.003	0.01	0.77	0.007	0.009	0.405	0.013	0.009	0.156	0.035	0.009	0
Major language: Unknown	-0.127	0.048	0.009	-0.075	0.046	0.1	0.007	0.033	0.832	-0.055	0.037	0.135	-0.092	0.039	0.018
Prior attainment: Very low	-1.066	0.007	0	-1.104	0.007	0	-1.136	0.006	0	-1.191	0.007	0	-1.132	0.007	0
Prior attainment: Low	-0.501	0.007	0	-0.511	0.007	0	-0.52	0.006	0	-0.536	0.006	0	-0.494	0.007	0
Prior attainment: High	0.552	0.007	0	0.582	0.007	0	0.627	0.006	0	0.619	0.006	0	0.587	0.007	0
Prior attainment: Very high	1.412	0.007	0	1.454	0.007	0	1.526	0.006	0	1.423	0.007	0	1.435	0.007	0
Prior attainment: Unknown	0.366	0.011	0	0.338	0.011	0	0.3	0.01	0	0.209	0.009	0	0.15	0.01	0
Region: East Midlands	0.005	0.029	0.873	-0.031	0.029	0.293	-0.045	0.02	0.027	-0.045	0.024	0.063	-0.029	0.032	0.36
Region: East of England	0.017	0.026	0.51	0.012	0.026	0.656	-0.026	0.018	0.15	0.018	0.021	0.391	0.008	0.028	0.791
Region: London	0.122	0.024	0	0.118	0.024	0	0.062	0.016	0	0.089	0.019	0	0.145	0.026	0
Region: north-east	0.001	0.04	0.987	0.049	0.04	0.219	-0.01	0.028	0.723	-0.01	0.033	0.756	-0.01	0.043	0.817
Region: north-west	0.013	0.028	0.641	0.019	0.028	0.489	-0.021	0.02	0.276	-0.006	0.023	0.805	0.001	0.03	0.965
Region: south-west	-0.009	0.027	0.734	0	0.027	0.994	-0.03	0.019	0.116	-0.05	0.022	0.024	-0.018	0.03	0.532
Region: West Midlands	-0.059	0.028	0.032	-0.036	0.027	0.193	-0.046	0.019	0.016	-0.044	0.023	0.051	-0.036	0.03	0.225
Region: Yorkshire and the Humber	-0.009	0.031	0.761	-0.021	0.031	0.503	-0.055	0.021	0.009	-0.051	0.025	0.044	-0.051	0.033	0.126
SEND: SEND	0.002	0.014	0.867	0.041	0.013	0.002	-0.047	0.011	0	-0.068	0.011	0	0.004	0.012	0.761

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Appendix A - Variables and data sources

Gender

Prior attainment

Ethnicity

Special Educational Needs and Disabilities (SEND)

Free school meals (FSM) eligibility

Income Deprivation Affecting Children Index (IDACI) score

Language

Region

Centre Type

Appendix B - Missing data summary

Appendix B.1 - GQ

Table B1.1 Percentage of A level entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in equalities dataset

Table B1.2 Percentage of GCSE entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in equalities dataset

Table B1.3 Percentage of each centre type’s A level entries in each year with missing/unknown information on the prior attainment, SEND and deprivation variables in equalities dataset

Table B1.4 Percentage of each centre type’s GCSE entries in each year with missing/unknown information on the prior attainment, SEND and deprivation variables in equalities dataset

Table B1.5 Each centre type’s share (in percentage) of each year’s A level entries with missing/unknown information on the prior attainment, SEND and deprivation variables

Table B1.6 Each centre type’s share (in percentage) of each year’s GCSE entries with missing/unknown information on the prior attainment, SEND and deprivation variables

Appendix B.2 - VTQ

Table B2.1 Percentage of Level 1/2 Technical Awards entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Table B2.2 Percentage of Level 1/2 Technical Certificates entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Table B2.3 Percentage of Level 3 Applied Generals entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Table B2.4 Percentage of Level 3 Tech Level entries in each year with missing/unknown information on each background variable in the equalities dataset

Appendix C - Descriptives

Appendix C.1 - GQ

Table C1.1 2018 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.2 2019 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.3 2020 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.4 2021 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.5 2022 entries in A level equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.6 2018 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.7 2019 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.8 2020 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.9 2021 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Table C1.10 2022 entries in GCSE equalities dataset: results and prior attainment information broken down by centre type, region, prior attainment category, ethnicity, major language, SEND status, FSM eligibility status, deprivation

Appendix C.2 - VTQ

Table C2.1 Counts of learners included in the equalities analysis per qualification group – Level 1/2

Table C2.2 Counts of learners included in the equalities analysis per qualification group – Level 3

Table and figure C2.3. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by Ethnicity – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Table and figure C2.4. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Table and figure C2.5. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Table and figure C2.6. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Table and figure C2.7. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Table and figure C2.8. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 1/2, Technical Award qualifications

Table and figure C2.9. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by ethnicity – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Table and figure C2.10. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Table and figure C2.11. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Table and figure C2.12. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Table and figure C2.13. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Table and figure C2.14. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 1/2, Technical Certificates qualifications

Table and figure C2.15. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by ethnicity – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Table and figure C2.16. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Table and figure C2.17. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Table and figure C2.18. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Table and figure C2.19. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Table and figure C2.20. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 3, Applied General qualifications

Table and figure C2.21. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by ethnicity status – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Table and figure C2.22. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by FSM – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Table and figure C2.23. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by gender – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Table and figure C2.24. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by IDACI – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Table and figure C2.25. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by prior attainment – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Table and figure C2.26. Proportions of learners and top grades achieved each year for breakdowns by SEND status – Level 3, Tech Levels qualifications

Appendix D - Model specifications

Appendix D.1 - GQ Model Specification

Appendix D.2 - VTQ model specification

Appendix D.3 – Confidence intervals

Appendix E - Full results tables

Appendix E.1 - GQ

Table E1.1 Full model results of analyses on numeric grade in A level

Table E1.2 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade A and above in A level

Table E1.3 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade C and above in A level

Table E1.4 Full model results of analyses on numeric grade in GCSE

Table E1.5 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade 7 and above in GCSE

Table E1.6 Full model results of analyses on probability of attaining grade 4 and above in GCSE

Appendix E.2 - VTQ

Table E2.1 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 1/2 Technical Awards

Table E2.2 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 1/2 Technical Certificates

Table E2.3 Average marginal effects on the probability of achieving top grades for Level 3 Applied Generals