Spring statement social security changes – updated impact on poverty levels in Great Britain, July 2025
This ad hoc analysis provides estimates of the impact of changes to Universal Credit on poverty levels following revisions to the previously announced policy.
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
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This publication updates previous analysis to account for recent Ministerial commitments to make changes to the Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill, specifically to remove Clause 5 of the Bill relating to Personal Independence Payment. It uses the same methodology and is comparable to the previous analysis.
It provides an estimate of the combined impact on poverty levels for individuals in the financial year ending (FYE) 2030. This estimate does not include any potential positive impact of the bolstered £1billion annual funding, by 2029 to 2030, or the additional £300m of support in this SR period that is being brought forward. These measures will support those with disabilities and long-term health conditions into employment, which we expect to reduce poverty among people it supports into work.
Excluding the impact of employment support, it is estimated that there will be 50,000 fewer individuals in relative poverty after housing costs in FYE 2030 as a result of the modelled changes to social security, compared to baseline projections. This includes a reduction in poverty for both children and working age individuals. The impact on the number of pensioners in poverty rounds to zero.