Spring statement social security changes – updated impact on poverty levels in Great Britain
This ad hoc analysis provides estimates of the impact of changes to PIP and UC on poverty levels following revisions to the previously announced policy.
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
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This publication updates previous analysis to account for changes to apply the changed entitlement rules for Personal Independence Payment (PIP) to new claims only and changes to benefit rates to ensure existing Limited Capability for Work Related Activity (LCWRA) claimants (prior to April 2026) do not lose out in real terms.
It provides an estimate of the combined impact on poverty levels for individuals in the financial year ending (FYE) 2030. This estimate does not include any potential positive impact of the bolstered £1billion annual funding, by FYE 2030, or the additional £300m of support in this SR period that is being brought forward. These measures will support those with disabilities long-term health conditions into employment, which we expect to mitigate the poverty impact among people it supports into work.
Excluding the impact of the additional employment support, it is estimated that there will be an additional 150,000 working age adults in relative poverty after housing costs in FYE 2030 as a result of the modelled changes to social security, compared to baseline projections. The impact on the number of pensioners and children in poverty is expected to be negligible. These latest policy changes reduce the poverty impact because existing recipients are now protected. The poverty impacts occur from potential future recipients no longer receiving the money which was assumed in the baseline projections.
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