SPI-M-O: Summary of further modelling of easing restrictions – Roadmap Step 4 on 19 July 2021, 7 July 2021
Statement from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).
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Paper from SPI-M-O summarising further modelling on easing restrictions for England (roadmap Step 4 on 19 July 2021). It was considered at SAGE 93 on 7 July 2021. The paper is the assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.
This paper should be read alongside the accompanying modelling papers from SAGE 93:
- University of Warwick: Roadmap scenarios and sensitivity – Step 4, 6 July 2021
- Imperial College London: Evaluating the roadmap out of lockdown for England – modelling the delayed Step 4 of the roadmap in the context of the Delta variant, 7 July 2021
- LSHTM: Updated roadmap assessment – prior to delayed Step 4, 7 July 2021
- JUNIPER Consortium: Transitioning from non-pharmaceutical interventions to vaccination to control COVID-19 transmission, 7 July 2021
This updates earlier SPI-M-O statements on modelling of easing restrictions, such as that tabled at SAGE 92.
These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.
Redactions in this document have been made to remove any security markings.
Last updated 13 May 2022 + show all updates
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First published.