Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 17 February 2021

Medium-term projections prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group (SPI-M-O).


SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections, 17 February 2021

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Medium-term projections from SPI-M-O. It was considered at SAGE 81 on 18 February 2021.

These are an assessment of the evidence at the time of writing. As new evidence or data emerges, SAGE updates its advice accordingly.

These are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot reflect recent changes in transmission that have not yet filtered through into surveillance data, such as hospital admissions and deaths. With the exception of the potential impact of vaccinations, they do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes that might affect transmission, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission. They are based only on the observable trends and data available at the time the projections were produced.

Projections are particularly uncertain during periods of transition, for example when significant interventions are introduced or relaxed.

Find out more information on the medium-term projections.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 5 March 2021