Research and analysis

SPI-M-O: COVID-19: Medium-term projections explainer, 31 October 2020

Supporting document prepared by the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling, Operational sub-group.

• From: Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies
• Published: 27 November 2020

Documents

SPI-M-O: Medium-term projections explainer - 31 October 2020

PDF, 498 KB, 6 pages

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Details

Paper from SPI-M-O on the medium-term projections. This explanatory paper provides some background information on the medium-term projections produced by SPI-M-O, and a description of the contributing models.

It was not considered at SAGE, and is a supporting document to aid interpretation of the medium-term projections and scenarios presented in other SPI-M and SAGE papers.

Please note that the medium-term projections are not forecasts or predictions, and cannot fully reflect changes in transmission that might have occurred over the past two to three weeks. They do not account for the impact of future policy or behavioural changes, nor seasonal effects that may affect transmission.

These documents are released as pre-print publications that have provided the government with rapid evidence during an emergency. These documents have not been peer-reviewed and there is no restriction on authors submitting and publishing this evidence in peer-reviewed journals.

Published 27 November 2020