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SAGE 44 minutes: Coronavirus (COVID-19) response, 25 June 2020

Published 31 July 2020

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Forty-fourth SAGE meeting on COVID-19, 25 June 2020.

Held via Video Teleconference.

R and growth rates

1. Short term forecasts continue to project a downward trend in all indicators modelled, including ICU bed occupancy and number of deaths.

2. SAGE approved the latest estimates of R and growth rate. For the UK, R remains between 0.7 and 0.9, and the growth rate is estimated as being between -2% and - 4% per day.

3. It was noted that some of the Devolved Administrations will soon reach a level of incidence for which R cannot be reliably estimated. SAGE agreed to expand on this point in next week’s meeting.

4. The terms ‘cluster’, ‘outbreak’ and ‘epidemic’ are currently used to describe different sizes of outbreak, but the differences between these terms have not been properly defined. Clearer definitions would improve communications and public understanding.

List of actions

  • SPI-M to investigate the point at which R can no longer be reliably estimated for the next SAGE meeting
  • CMO to define the terms ‘cluster’, ‘outbreak’ and ‘epidemic’ for use in describing different sizes of outbreak

Attendees

Scientific experts

  • Patrick Vallance (GCSA)
  • Chris Whitty (CMO)
  • Angela McLean (CSA MOD)
  • Graham Medley (LSHTM)
  • Iain Bell (ONS)
  • Rob Orford (Health CSA Wales)
  • Roger Halliday (Chief Statistician Scotland)

Total: 13

1 observer and government official and 5 Secretariat members redacted.

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