Risk assessment on the annual likelihood of the spread of lumpy skin disease virus to Great Britain from EU and EFTA member states in October 2025 (executive summary)
Published 22 July 2026
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
© Crown copyright 2026
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This summary outlines a qualitative risk assessment which has been completed to assess the risk of lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) being introduced into Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) through legal and illegal trade, as well as personal imports, and vectors from European Union (EU) and European Free Trade Association (EFTA) member states, and subsequently infecting bovine species. The assessment reflects the situation as of October 2025.
It was necessary to make several assumptions in the risk assessment, such as compliance with trade restrictions and other legal requirements (except when assessing illegal trade routes).
A detailed breakdown is available in the full risk assessment, which can be requested by emailing ukassurance@defra.gov.uk.
Background
Lumpy skin disease virus (LSDV) is a capripoxvirus affecting bovine species such as cattle, bison, and buffalo. Clinical signs of lumpy skin disease (LSD) are variable but typically include the development of skin nodules. The primary means of LSDV transmission is believed to be arthropod vectors, though other routes have been demonstrated experimentally. Previous risk assessments for the spread of LSD to Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales) were conducted in 2017 and 2022 that considered the epidemiology of LSD in the European Union (EU) at the time. No cases of LSD were reported in the EU between 2017 and 2025. The first case was confirmed in Sardinia, Italy in June 2025, with subsequent outbreaks reported in mainland Italy, France (June 2025) and Spain (October 2025).
The following pathways were considered as part of the entry and exposure assessment:
- commercial trade in live cattle
- commercial trade in germplasm (ova, embryos and semen)
- commercial trade in meat and meat products
- commercial trade in POAO and ABPs (hair, hides and dairy products)
- fomites: people and clothing
- fomites: vehicles and equipment
- fomites: bedding, crops and animal feed
- legal personal imports of POAO
- illegal personal imports of POAO
- vectors: wind-borne movement
- vectors: human mediated transport (not including transport of animals)
Risk questions
The risk levels in this assessment consider the year 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2026 when assigning risk levels. This is due to the epidemiological situation for LSDV and the data available at the time of the assessment, including annual import data, used in this assessment.
- what is the risk of introduction of LSDV into Great Britain, and subsequent exposure of susceptible species, within the next year from EU and EFTA countries?
- what is the risk of spread of LSDV within Great Britain, should it be introduced within the next year?
Main findings
Entry pathways
This risk assessment concluded that the overall likelihood of entry of LSDV into Great Britain within the next year (between 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2026) is medium (event occurs regularly) with high uncertainty. This is due to the risk level from illegal personal imports of contaminated meat, dairy products, and hides.
The routes of entry commonly considered to be the primary methods of spread for LSDV, live animals and vectors, was assessed as low (event is rare but cannot be excluded). In the case of live animals this is primarily due to the disease control measures implemented during LSDV outbreaks, and for vector pathways this is due to the lack of vectors present in areas of Europe where wind-blown events could transport them to Great Britain.
Exposure pathways
The overall likelihood of exposure of susceptible species was assessed as medium with high uncertainty. A medium likelihood of exposure was assessed for the transmission of LSDV between live cattle and vectors and transmission via germplasm, conditional on the low likelihood of entry via these pathways. All other pathways were assessed as having a lower exposure risk.
The uncertainty was high primarily due to the lack of data on survival of LSDV in vectors, along with a lack of clarity on all potential vectors in the UK that may be capable of spreading LSDV, and the lack of data on germplasm causing infection in naïve animals.
Consequence assessment
Given the specificity of LSDV to cattle species, the primary economic impact of LSDV would be to the commercial sector. LSDV is not a zoonotic pathogen. Additionally, there is limited risk to native wildlife species, though a few herds of wild bison and water buffalo have been re-introduced in Great Britain in recent years as part of re-wilding schemes.
The 2025 LSD outbreaks in France, Italy (Sardinia) and Spain and the previous outbreaks in the Balkans also present possible scenarios for outbreak spread and size suggesting that once cases arrive in the country there can be spread of a distance greater than 100km, and that outbreaks across multiple countries can take years to stamp out and prove disease freedom
Given the impact on animal welfare, economy and of an introduction of LSDV, along with the potential for spread outside of the index case area, the consequences are considered to be a major impact for a small population and therefore rated major with medium uncertainty. The uncertainty is due to lack of previous outbreaks in Great Britain providing data, the suitability of BTV as a proxy outbreak, and the uncertainty around extended survival times and the extent of spread and size of outbreak within the country.
Key uncertainties
Entry assessment
The uncertainties in this section were:
- the incubation period of LSD, along with potential for certain germplasm such as semen to remain contaminated for longer durations
- lack of information on the potential survival of LSDV within meat
- limited survival data for LSDV on clothing, the temperature conditions for survival and the effectiveness of washing clothing on LSDV destruction
Exposure assessment
The uncertainties in this section were:
- the lack of data in relation to travel patterns of individuals or workers entering farms where susceptible animals are kept and the lack of data regarding biosecurity protocols if any, for individuals who contact susceptible animals across Great Britain
- the lack of data regarding virus survival on different fomites
- lack of data regarding the frequency of contact between cattle and personal imports, and unknown dose response if contact were to occur via this route
Consequence assessment
The uncertainties in this section were:
- the likely size of an LSD outbreak and rate of spread within Great Britain
- the economic impacts of an LSD outbreak due to lack of data from previous outbreaks in Great Britain