Research and analysis

Revised fuel efficiency assumptions for future aircraft

A collaboration between DfT and Aerospace Technology Institute (ATI) updating what we know about future aircraft types and their fuel efficiency assumptions.

• From: Department for Transport
• Published: 16 December 2025

Documents

Revised fuel efficiency assumptions for future aircraft types in DfT’s aviation modelling suite

PDF, 875 KB, 40 pages

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Details

This report details collaboration between the Department for Transport (DfT) and the ATI to update fuel efficiency assumptions for future aircraft types in DfT’s aviation model. It reviews:

• ultra-efficient aircraft types - powered by kerosene or sustainable aviation fuel
• zero-emission aircraft - powered by sources which make them zero-emission at the tailpipe, like electric or hydrogen power

Using 6 future aircraft concepts, revised assumptions for use within the aviation model are based on the following 3 scenarios.

Low Scenario

Assumes there are no zero-emission aircraft and slow development of ultra-efficient aircraft.

Mid Scenario

Aligns with the ‘Current Trends’ scenario as referenced in the Jet Zero strategy (2022). This scenario assumes the development of ultra-efficient aircraft and zero emission aircraft, but that zero-emission aircraft will not be prominent in the UK fleet until after 2050.

High Scenario

Equivalent to ‘High Ambition’ in the Jet Zero Strategy. This assumes the development of zero emission aircraft focused on smaller aircraft types. Larger aircraft will first adopt ultra-efficient technology before transitioning to zero-emissions technology.

Published 16 December 2025