Update note: Offensive weapons homicide review impact assessment
Updated 29 June 2023
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Changes to the Offensive Weapons Homicide Review pilot
The latest version of the Impact Assessment for Offensive Weapons Homicide Reviews (OWHR) was published in July 2021, as part of the overarching Impact Assessment for the Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act 2022 (PCSC Act). That Impact Assessment covered the pilot phase of OWHRs. Since that publication the policy has developed, and costings confirmed. This note provides an update on the information previously set out on the estimated monetised costs for the pilot phase of OWHRs.
The most significant change is that new homicides that meet the criteria will only become subject to a review if they occur within the first 9 months of this 18-month pilot. This will increase the prospect of reviews being completed within the overall duration of the pilot, rather than running on for long periods after the pilot has ended. The overall length of the pilot will remain at 18 months with the second half focused on delivery of ongoing reviews. Each review is estimated to take approximately 12 months although more complex cases could take longer (and each ‘started’ OWHR will run to completion, even if that exceeds the 18 month time-frame). In the case of a review that is commenced during the pilot and runs on beyond the full 18 months, funds will still be available to complete the review, and data and analysis will be included in the evaluation up to the point the review had reached at the end of the pilot period. The pilot will begin on 1 April 2023.
The pilot areas are:
- London – Barnet, Brent, Harrow, Southwark and Lambeth
- West Midlands – Birmingham and Coventry
- Wales – South Wales
These areas were chosen because of disparate profiles of homicide and serious violence in different parts of England and Wales.
With the identification of the pilot areas, a more accurate estimate of the number of reviews that are expected to take place has been calculated. This has been done using historic data on eligible homicides in the chosen pilot areas over the 5 years to 2021/22. Given this is uncertain, a 20% optimism bias has been added, based on similar experience, to ensure funding for all necessary reviews is available. This arrives at an estimate of 36 qualifying homicides for the 9-month period in 2023/24. This is set out in the table below.
Table 1: Estimate of the expected number of Offensive Weapons Homicide Reviews during the pilot
| Pilot areas | All homicides in the 5 years to 2021/22 | % of homicides that are offensive weapon, adult, non-domestic | Estimate for offensive weapon, adult, non-domestic homicides, 5 years | 9 month estimate for offensive weapon, adult, non-domestic homicides | 9 month estimate for offensive weapon, adult, non-domestic homicides with a 20% optimism bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metropolitan police areas | 203 | 56 | 115 | 17 | 21 |
| West Midlands police areas | 141 | 45 | 63 | 10 | 11 |
| South Wales | 60 | 35 | 21 | 3 | 4 |
| Total | 36 |
Source: Police recorded crime and outcomes open data tables (note figures may not sum due to rounding).
To deliver an OWHR, the 3 review partners (police, local authority, integrated care board (or local health board in Wales)), an independent chair (if delegated to) and other local partners and appropriate bodies will work together to gather evidence, carry out the review and produce a report. This leads to costs in a number of areas. Prior to the start of the pilot, training will be provided by an external company for review partners, independent chairs, and oversight board members. Once commenced, costs will be incurred by the review partners and the independent chair (if appropriate) in carrying out the review. There will also be costs for an oversight board and secretariat function to monitor implementation and oversee reviews once produced. A process evaluation of the pilot will also be carried out by an independent company. There will also be other miscellaneous costs such as translating the guidance into Welsh and laying it in Parliament.
Report costs (Chairs and other agencies)
30 independent chairs have been identified and will be trained so that they are able to carry out reviews, if delegated to, during the pilot. The cost for the advertising campaign was £4,018 which was completed in 2022/23. The basic per review costs for a chair are £8,688, which cover carrying out the review and authoring the report. This remains the same as in the published Impact Assessment, which was calculated with information from 12 Community Safety Partnerships who conduct Domestic Homicide Reviews. To estimate the additional cost to relevant partners, data was obtained from police forces on the number and cost of the domestic homicide reviews that they conduct. This suggested a cost of £1,222 per partner for the three agencies normally involved in the provision of OWHRs, equalling a total of £3,666 per review.
As we now expect 36 reviews to fall into 2023/24, this equals an estimate of £312,768 (36 x £8,688) in chairs costs and £131,976 in costs for input by relevant partners (36 x £3,666). This equates to a basic total review cost of £444,744 in 2023/24. Further to this, to account for higher per review costs in the instance of complex cases, and to ensure that all reviews are funded even if numbers are higher than estimated, a contingency of £2,000 per review has been added for 2023/24, equalling £72,000. While homicides that happen in 2024/25 will not be subject to an OWHR, there may be some complex reviews that are still going on and need ongoing funding. In case that may be required, an additional contingency of £40,000 has been allocated.
To aid the 3 police forces in delivering the OWHR pilot, it is intended that they will be provided with £140,000 in both 2023/24 and 2024/25. This will fund additional staff members in the review teams of each of the three pilot areas. This has been estimated in line with the relevant police force pay bands. To enable Birmingham City Council to coordinate and carry out the administration of OWHRs across Birmingham and Coventry, it is also intended that West Midlands local authority will receive £35,000 in 2023/24 and £35,000 in 2024/25, in line with local authority pay bands.
OWHR Oversight Board
An estimate of the direct costs for the OWHR Oversight Board have been updated with new information. These costs were previously based on information from the Department for Education’s Child Safeguarding Practice Review Panel but are now based on daily fees for members of comparable Home Office boards, as well as a reduction to the expected number of day’s work, in line with the expected number of reviews.
A recruitment campaign has been held in 2022/23 to identify the initial members of the OWHR Oversight Board. This incurred advertising and recruitment costs of £8,568. These costs will be repeated in 2023/24 with a planned recruitment round for the remaining oversight board members adding a further £8,568. Oversight board fees are £400 per day for chairs and £300 per day for other members. This is consistent with the daily fee for other comparable Home Office boards. As the estimated number of reviews in the pilot has decreased, we estimate these members to work up to 5 days a month, rather than the previous estimate of 14.
For 2022/23, as the pilot will be in its early preparation stages it is expected that a chair and single board member will be working up to 5 days a month for 2 months, at a total cost of £7,000. For 2023/24, when the pilot commences, there will be one board member and one chair working an estimated 5 days a month for the full year and, once the pilot is established and review reports start to be finalised, they will be joined by a further 6 board members working for up to 5 days a month for 4 months. This equals a total of £78,000. For 2024/25, it has been estimated that the chair and 7 board members will work up to 5 days a month for the 12-month period which totals £150,000.
Secretariat
The secretariat function will provide administrative support to the OWHR Oversight Board and act as a link between the board and pilot areas. For the pilot this role will be provided by members of the Crime Reduction Directorate in the Home Office. The total cost of employment, which includes direct overheads, is estimated to be £95,730 for both 2023/24 and 2024/25. This was based on internal calculations which are based on a full-time grade 7 and 0.25 full time equivalent for an HEO.
Evaluation
An independent company has been contracted to carry out an evaluation of the OWHR pilot. It will capture data and information at regular intervals throughout the 18-month pilot, monitoring the outcomes and assessing the effectiveness of the current process and criteria. The cost of this is spread over 3 years, consisting of £64,455 in 2022/23, £73,663 in 2023/24 and £46,040 in 2024/25.
Training, translation and reading costs
Following a procurement exercise, a training contract was awarded to a training provider to design and deliver training courses to 108 participants in 2022/23 and 2023/24. This will cover approximately 70 review partners, 30 independent chairs and 8 oversight board members. This contract is for £102,416 in 2022/23, with the final training courses delivered in 23/24 costing £29,040. This includes training for the additional 6 oversight board members and an additional course to train the outstanding independent chairs. This brings the total of the contract over the two years to £131,456
There is also an additional cost of translating the course materials into Welsh, which is £1,370 in 2022/23.
Reading costs relate to reading and understanding the new guidance, which is likely to be between 30,000 and 40,000 words long when finalised, with a central estimate of 35,000. It is assumed that all relevant individuals read at an average speed of between 200 and 700 words per minute with a central estimate of 400 words per minute[footnote 1] and that the median hourly salary is equivalent to that for Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code 1115 (Chief Executives and senior officials) from Table 14.5a in the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings[footnote 2] 2020. This is multiplied by 1.22 to account for non-wage overhead[footnote 3]. This means that total reading costs per individual are estimated to be between £39 and £183 with a central estimate of £80.
Given that there will be 108 participants of the training who need to familiarise themselves with the guidance, this equates to a total reading cost of between £4,235 and £19,764 with a central estimate of £8,647. This includes board members, review partners and independent chairs and will all fall into 2023/24.
Miscellaneous
The reports are expected to be published through a single, publicly accessible source, the details of which are yet to be confirmed. By combining various quotes and internal evidence, this is estimated to cost £20,000 in 2023/24 and £50,000 in 2024/25.
The cost of translating the statutory guidance into Welsh is estimated to cost £5,000, but due to uncertainties over the length, an additional £2,000 has been kept in reserve. This totals £7,000 in 2022/23.
The cost of laying the secondary legislation and commencement regulations in Parliament is approximately £1,437 in 2022/23.
As this is a new project where variables are uncertain these estimates and costs may vary. To ensure the programme has enough funds, an additional contingency of £38,690 has been proposed to be placed in reserve for 2024/25
Table 2, Breakdown of central economic cost estimates over 3 years. This assumes a discount rate of 3.5% a year and a base year of 2022/23.
| Rounded to nearest 1,000 | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Report costs | ||||
| Advertising for independent chairs | £4,000 | £0 | £0 | £4,000 |
| Costs for review and report - independent chair | £0 | £302,000 | £0 | £302,000 |
| Review partners costs | £0 | £128,000 | £0 | £128,000 |
| Review production contingency | £0 | £70,000 | £37,000 | £107,000 |
| Ongoing staff resource for pilot areas (police and LA’s) | £0 | £169,000 | £163,000 | £332,000 |
| Oversight board | ||||
| Advertising for board members | £4,000 | £4,000 | £0 | £8,000 |
| Interview costs | £5,000 | £4,000 | £0 | £9,000 |
| Board member fees | £7,000 | £75,000 | £140,000 | £222,000 |
| Secretariat | ||||
| Cost of employment for Home Office staff | £0 | £92,000 | £89,000 | £181,000 |
| Evaluation | ||||
| Pilot evaluation | £64,000 | £71,000 | £43,000 | £178,000 |
| Training and reading costs | ||||
| Training | £102,000 | £28,000 | £0 | £130,000 |
| Translations of course materials | £1,000 | £0 | £0 | £1,000 |
| Reading costs | £0 | £8,000 | £0 | £8,000 |
| Miscellaneous | ||||
| Publishing reports | £0 | £19,000 | £47,000 | £66,000 |
| Translation of guidance to Welsh | £7,000 | £0 | £0 | £7,000 |
| Cost of laying secondary legislation in parliament | £1,000 | £0 | £0 | £1,000 |
| Additional contingency | £0 | £0 | £36,000 | £36,000 |
| Total | £195,000 | £970,000 | £555,000 | £1,720,000 |
Source: Home Office internal estimates
Undiscounted totals in 2022/23 prices are £195,000 in 2022/23, £1,005,000 in 2023/24 and £595,000 in 2024/25. The total undiscounted estimate is £1,797,000.
Net present value
The total cost is now estimated to have a present value between £1.5 million and £1.9 million over three years with a central estimate of £1.7 million (figures may not sum due to rounding). This assumes a 3.5% discount rate. As no benefits have been estimated, this results in an NPV of between £-1.5 million and £-1.9 million with a central estimate of £-1.7 million .
The initial Impact Assessment had a total cost estimate of £2.8 million (PV), significantly higher than the £1.7 million estimation in this note. The change is partly driven by the reduction in time period for which eligible homicides are subject to review, reducing the number of reports needing to be written. Alongside this, better estimates for the oversight board and secretariat have found lower than anticipated costs, reducing overall costs.
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Sourced from Readingsoft.com ↩
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See: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings (ASHE) - https://www.ons.gov.uk/surveys/informationforbusinesses/businesssurveys/annualsurveyofhoursandearningsashe ↩
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Eurostat 2019 shows UK wage share of 82.1% and non-wage share of 17.9% therefore (0.179 / 0.821) x 100 = 21.8%, hence we multiply by 1.22. Source: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/lc_lci_lev/default/table?lang=en ↩