Transparency data

Chief Regulator's report: 7 December 2022

Updated 20 July 2023

Applies to England

This document has been subject to redactions

Date

7 December 2022

Title

Chief Regulator’s report (Open Paper)

Report by

Dr Jo Saxton, Chief Regulator

Paper for information and discussion

Recommendations

1. The Board is asked to note the matters reported.

Overview

2. Ofqual’s decision on grading in 2023 was announced at the end of September. This landed calmly and quietly with both the sector and in the media, with broad support for this step back towards normality, combined with cohort level protection. We are not being complacent, however, and will step-up communications in 2023 and in the approach to the examination season.

3. Ofqual has published decisions for 2023 on MFL arrangements, exam aids (formulae and equation sheets) and, jointly with DfE, resilience arrangements, in the unlikely event that exams do not go ahead. Through stakeholder channels and schools and college visits, work to communicate messages about 2023 arrangements, including grading, will continue. I also plan to write to schools and colleges before the Christmas break about 2023 arrangements, so that students and their parents and carers hear from us before their January mocks.

4. As the Board is aware, intensive work has been ongoing since the summer on the review on delayed VTQ results and issues in T levels.

5. On 12 October I appeared at my first Education Select Committee accountability hearing as Chief Regulator. Alongside me as witnesses were representatives from OCR, Pearson and the Association of Colleges. The Committee’s questioning focused mainly on the issue of delayed VTQ results in summer 2022, but with questions too on exam paper errors and gaps in attainment. I wrote to the Committee later in October to provide further information on their areas of interest.

6. New ministers were appointed in October. I have had constructive introductory meetings with the Secretary of State, Gillian Keegan, and also with the Minister for Schools, Nick Gibb and the Minister for Skills, Apprenticeships and Higher Education, Robert Halfon.

7. Activity on the qualifications reform at Level 3 and Level 2 and below (post 16) continues. Publication of the Department’s funding approvals process for Level 3 qualifications and of Ofqual’s decisions on the regulation of these qualifications is expected in December.

8. Monitoring the work of the Standards and Testing Agency continues, in particular to review issues that led to late and missing KS2 results in summer 2022.

2022 summer series of exams and formal assessments

Publications on summer 2022

9. Ofqual’s two summer reports, covering GCSE, AS and A levels and vocational and technical qualifications respectively in 2022 are due to be published on 15 December, alongside Official Statistics covering malpractice and outcomes of reviews of marking, moderation and appeals.

10. Equalities analyses for GQs and VTQs in 2022 have now been published. Of the many different comparisons between groups of students, the majority showed no notable change in attainment gaps in 2022, compared with both pandemic and pre-pandemic years. Attainment gaps are still there, but in most cases they have not changed since the last time summer exams took place. And in some cases, they have narrowed. Critically, the analysis confirms that there is no systemic bias caused by 2022 regulated qualifications.

November resit series

11. The November resit series for GCSE English language and mathematics ran from 31 October to 7 November. Overall the series proceeded smoothly.

12. Provisional entries for the November series were published on 24 November as Official Statistics. There was a 10% decrease overall in entries compared with November 2021, from 114,040 to 102,405 (a decrease of 7% in English and 13% in maths). November entries are now slightly lower than before the pandemic, following a peak in 2020. As in previous years, the majority of GCSE maths entries this November (95%) were for the foundation, or lower, tier.

13. By the time the Board meets we will have published our requirements for exam boards for awarding in the November and January exam series (GCSE English language, GCSE maths, and the Extended Project Qualification (EPQ)). In line with the Board’s decision in September, exam boards will aim to align standards in GCSE with those set in summer 2022, given that students are re-sitting from the summer. For EPQ, they will aim to set standards that align with the position in summer 2023, as most students entering EPQ in the winter series are year 13s who will be taking A levels in summer 2023. Close engagement with the exam boards is maintained during the awarding period to monitor any emerging issues.

Summer 2023

14. Colleagues have been working with exam boards to develop a technical plan for implementing the policy decision to return to pre-pandemic grading standards in 2023, with reform-style cohort-level protection. This work will be taken forward over the coming months. Ahead of the summer formal requirements for awarding will be published, as in any year.

15. Analysis and decisions documents for the Ofqual-only consultations on the use of formulae and equation sheets in GCSE maths, physics and combined science, and the removal of the requirement for unfamiliar vocabulary in GCSE MFL, were published on 30 November. Publication was aligned with DfE’s parallel consultation on their GCSE MFL subject content, and the joint consultation with DfE on resilience arrangements.

16. Feedback on the resilience arrangements will be closely monitored. The consultation asked for views on whether the proposed guidance for 2023 could be adopted in the longer term. Over two-thirds of respondents supported this. We plan to keep this under review and will consider consulting again next year on any possible proposals for the longer term. Such proposals would, of course, come back to the Board.

T Levels

17. DfE continues to host meetings with T Level providers impacted by the issues with Health and Science, which Ofqual attends.

National Assessments

18. Ofqual’s National Assessments Regulation Annual Report is planned for publication in January 2023. This report is published annually in January, with the exception of 2020 and 2021 when national assessments were cancelled.

19. Ofqual’s memorandum of understanding with the Standards and Testing Agency (STA) is due for review and the Board will consider it under a separate agenda item.

20. The Coronation of His Majesty King Charles will require the 2023 national assessment series to commence a day later.

Annual Statement of Compliance

21. The window for the annual Statement of Compliance exercise opened on 10 October 2022 and will close on 13 January 2023. General Condition B3 requires AOs to submit an annual statement of their compliance with the relevant Conditions of Recognition. Ofqual issues the request in conjunction with CCEA regulation and Qualifications Wales. The AO communications team has delivered three webinars prior to and since the launch to support awarding organisations in making this assertion and return. This will be the first time a number of incoming End Point Assessment Organisations will have participated in the process.

Apprenticeship End Point Assessments

EQA Transition programme

22. The EQA transition programme continues to progress well, with risks reducing, with the programme scheduled to conclude in December. Our current estimate is that approximately 40% of the eligible EPAOs will have been recognised by the end of December (68 out of 160), covering 96.8% of the apprenticeship standards, with 99.4% of apprentices covered by Ofqual regulation.

Qualifications Reform and Review

T Level accreditation – Wave 4

23. Accreditation decisions for all the Technical Qualifications (TQs - the qualifications within T Level programmes) in Wave 4 are now due in December and January.

Higher Technical Qualifications (HTQs)

24. IfATE’s submission window for cycle 3 (Business and administration, Digital, Education and childcare, and Engineering and Manufacturing routes) closed on 29 July.

Level 3 Qualifications Review

25. DfE’s new funding approvals process is now set to launch in December. The intention is to publish Ofqual’s regulatory framework for Level 3 alternative academic and technical occupation qualifications alongside IfATE’s final Level 3 approval criteria and updated DfE funding and approvals guidance as a ‘single source of information’ accessed by AOs via a web page being designed by DfE.

26. A new digital platform is being developed to recruit and deploy subject matter experts (SMEs) to contribute to reviews of qualification materials. The first phase of this platform is now live, allowing prospective SMEs to register their interest in providing their expertise to Ofqual.

Level 2 and below (L2B) Qualifications Review

27. The Department’s response to the Level 2B consultation has been agreed by Ministers and was published on 18 October. A Ministerial steer for our work on Level 2 and below qualifications has been received which formally initiates our work on this set of qualifications. The letter will be published alongside our first policy consultation, which will cover qualifications leading to employment (Technical qualifications), after publication of the Level 3 decisions.

28. Work with DfE continues on the design considerations in the different groups of qualifications to inform our policy development. The next key groups of qualifications are those referred to as Progression to Employment and T Level Transition Programme Qualifications.

Sector Subject Area Classifications

29. The Ofqual-DfE joint review of Sector Subject Area classifications (SSAC) is in its next phase of the programme, with further external stakeholder engagement to understand if changes need to be made to the system, which may lead to a consultation on any proposed changes.

GQ qualification development

30. Work with DfE on the development of GCSE in British Sign Language (BSL) continues; this will be discussed under a separate agenda item.

31. Submissions for revised GCSEs in French have been received from exam boards who wish to offer these qualifications.

2022/23 engagement and communications

Stakeholder engagement

32. I continue regular visits to schools and colleges. Since September these include meeting with staff and students at Canterbury college, a Schools North East round table, visiting Newcastle College and Hills Road Sixth Form College in Cambridge. Speaking with exams officers and qualification administrators is proving particularly insightful. Ofqual colleagues are also undertaking visits and seeking opportunities to engage with students, enabling us to increase our reach. My plan is to span visits across all 7 government regions of England between January and June 2023.

1. 33. Of the wide range of stakeholder work that takes place week in week out, notable highlights since the last Board meeting include:
   1. a. presenting at the Association of Colleges curriculum conference on qualification reform on 11 October, alongside DfE and IfATE. Ofqual representatives also attended the Association of Colleges parliamentary reception as part of Colleges Week, and their annual conference in November.
   2. b. addressing the Westminster Education Forum on 19 October on qualifications at Level 2 and below, explaining how regulation will play a part in delivering the government’s policy moving forward.
   3. c. contributing to the Federation of Awarding Bodies conference in October, where I spoke, about Ofqual’s approach to regulation, and expectations of AOs. Other colleagues spoke on the subject of qualification reform and the impact of the Skills Bill. Ofqual also provided workshops on CASLO qualifications and reasonable adjustments.

Equalities programme

34. As mentioned earlier in this report, 2022 qualification results equalities analyses for GQs and VTQs were published on 24 November.

35. Ofqual is developing equalities objectives for 2023-2025, based on the current strategic priorities.

Research and Analysis

1. 36. Research colleagues presented a number of papers at the AEA-Europe conference in Dublin earlier this month including:
   • The comparability of grading standards in technical qualifications in England: how can we facilitate it in a post-pandemic world?
   • Accuracy and bias of ‘equating’ methods based on expert comparative judgement of script quality
   • Student perceptions of the adaptations to exam arrangements in England in 2022
   • The assessment of behaviours in apprenticeship end point assessments
   • Evaluating sources of differential item functioning in high-stakes assessments in England

37. A survey to explore student perceptions of ‘25% Extra Time’ as a reasonable adjustment has been launched. It will be followed up with a series of interviews.

38. Research exploring student and teacher perceptions of adaptations made to GQs in summer 2022 is nearing completion. This involved surveys and focus groups/interviews at various points in the exam cycle with students and teachers.

39. Data collection has been completed for our research on differential item functioning (DIF) and assessment fairness. Analysis is now underway. Ofqual committed to this wok in our corporate plan.

40. Research on remote invigilation in respect of VTQs is underway and our report nearing completion.

Strategy Department

Qualification fees

41. As a result of inflationary pressures, in August 2022 we reminded AOs of their obligation to notify Ofqual of any proposed fee increases that exceed inflation. The notifications received help us to understand pricing intentions and the challenges faced by AOs in these difficult times.

42. Ofqual is also monitoring VTQ price increases, but due to the larger number of AOs, the diverse range of qualifications and EPAs and the lower transparency in the market, it is not possible to do a cross market analysis until the ‘Standard Qualification Fee’ collection next year. Overall, we consider our work to highlight this area helps to keep price rises down.

Ofqual all staff event

43. Ofqual hosted an All Staff event in November. We are now seeking a venue for the 2023 event.

Environmental sustainability

44. In the corporate plan a commitment was made to explore opportunities for reducing the impact of the exams system on the environment. A carbon study of a GCSE is currently being scoped to help understand key emissions sources across the exams system and help identify opportunities to make reductions.

Regulatory and Corporate Services

Finance

45. A financial update will be provided to the Board under a separate agenda item.

Facilities

46. The Earlsdon Park office lease expires in 2024. Options within Coventry are under consideration and the Finance and Resources Committee will consider the matter at its next meeting.

Commercial

47. Procurement has been initiated for the National Reference Test contract from 2025.

Human Resources

48. The new ED for Finance and Operations, David Bowden, joins Ofqual on 5 December. David will hold the remit of named Director of Finance as set out in Managing Public Money. Charles Scott, who has served us in the interim leaves at the end of December.

49. The Civil Service Commissioner and Moloney Search have been engaged to lead recruitment for the ED Strategy and Communications post that is left vacant by Michael Hanton’s appointment as Deputy Chief Regulator. The post was advertised at the end of November, with interviews planned for February 2023.

50. A new Associate Director HR is now in post. This much needed capacity will support the delivery of Ofqual’s People Strategy.

Development of the Ofqual Register

51. The project to develop Ofqual’s Register of Regulated Qualifications continues.

Publication of paper

Paper to be published: Yes