Research and analysis
Impact of heat pump costs on uptake: a discrete choice experiment
Research on how willingness to pay for heat pumps varies based on different upfront and running cost scenarios.
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Details
There are several barriers to the uptake of heat pumps in existing homes, including the upfront and running costs of heat pumps. Understanding how consumers react to cost variations can be helpful for designing government policy.
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) commissioned ICF Consulting Services, The Behaviouralist, and Moonlight Research to explore willingness to pay for air source heat pumps at different price scenarios. Specifically, the research sought to understand:
- how upfront costs (i.e. the product and installation costs) and running costs (i.e. monthly energy bills) affect heat pump uptake
- the relative importance of each cost type
- the extent to which financing options, population characteristics, and information provision would affect demand
The research consisted of:
- a discrete choice experiment to investigate consumer preferences in different hypothetical choice scenarios, with UK owner-occupiers
- a randomised control trial to assess the impact of different communication-based interventions on heat pump demand
This report presents the key findings from the research.
Updates to this page
Published 24 September 2026