GGSS budget caps, production factors, and inflation forecasts for 2026-2027
Updated 2 November 2026
Applies to England, Scotland and Wales
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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/green-gas-support-scheme-budget-management/ggss-budget-caps-production-factors-and-inflation-forecasts-for-2026-2027
This page covers the Green Gas Support Scheme (GGSS) budget caps and their supporting information effective for the 2026-2027 financial year (1 April 2026 to 31 March 2027).
The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero (DESNZ) is required to publish this information under the Green Gas Support Scheme Regulations (reg. 4(13)).
The GGSS has two budget caps, shown in Table 1, which are the annual Application Budget (AB) and the Overall Scheme Expenditure Budget (OSEB). The AB limits estimated spend by acting as a cap against which all applications to the scheme are checked. The OSEB sits above the AB to build in headroom to reduce the risk of a shortfall between funds collected through the Levy and payments made to producers and is used to set the Green Gas Levy.
This page also contains the production factors (Table 2) and inflation forecast (Table 3) used to set budget caps and assess expected spend on plants.
Regulations came into force on 16 October 2026 to extend the commissioning deadline to 31 March 2030 for eligible applicants. As part of these changes (reg.4(17), DESNZ is now required to publish budgets caps and inflation forecasts up to 2034-35. Table 1 and table 3 were amended on 16 October 2026.
Further information on GGSS budget caps and the production factors and inflation forecasts used to set them is published on the GGSS Budget Management Guidance page.
Budget caps
Table 1: GGSS budget caps (set 17 December 2025, effective from 1 April 2026)
| Year | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | 2031/32 | 2032/33 | 2033/34 | 2034/35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AB (£M) | 124.9 | 174.2 | 203.8 | 214.3 | 223.8 | 230.0 | 235.7 | 240.5 | 245.3 |
| OSEB (£M) | 134.2 | 187.2 | 203.8 | 214.3 | 223.8 | 230.0 | 235.7 | 240.5 | 245.3 |
Production factors
Production factors are used to estimate the proportion of a plant’s total registered capacity that we expect to be used to produce eligible biomethane in any given quarter of a plant’s time on the scheme.
Table 2: Production factors used to estimate AB commitments from 1 April 2026
| Quarter following registration | Production factor |
|---|---|
| Q1 | 47% |
| Q2 | 60% |
| Q3 | 63% |
| Q4 | 68% |
| Q5 | 69% |
| Q6 | 71% |
| Q7 | 71% |
| Q8 | 74% |
| Q9 | 74% |
| Q10 | 76% |
| Q11 | 78% |
| Q12 | 79% |
| Q13 | 79% |
| Q14 | 78% |
| Q15 | 79% |
| Q16 | 80% |
| Q17 | 83% |
| Q18 | 83% |
| Q19 | 84% |
| Q20+ | 85% |
Inflation forecast
Ofgem is responsible for uprating GGSS tariffs annually on 1 April, using the actual CPI rate from the previous December. This covers inflation for that calendar year and is published by ONS each January. The latest forecasts for this rate from the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecast are presented in the table below:
Table 3: Inflation forecast estimates as at March 2026
| Financial year | 2026/27 | 2027/28 | 2028/29 | 2029/30 | 2030/31 | 2031/32 | 2032/33 | 2033/34 | 2034/35 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate of CPI inflation | 2.01% | 1.95% | 2.04% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% | 2.0% |