Research and analysis

Evaluation of the County Lines Programme

These reports present the findings from the impact evaluations of the County Lines Programme.

• From: Home Office
• Published: 14 August 2025
• Last updated: 30 December 2025
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  1. 30 December 2025

     Added 'Evaluation of the County Lines Programme (updated) (January 2020 to January 2025)'.

  2. 30 September 2025

     Section 4.1 amended - figures of 641 and 461 for NRM referrals observed in the period since the County Lines Programme had been implemented, were corrected in both instances to 41, as presented in Table A5.1. This correction does not alter the overall interpretation of the results. The corrected estimate figure of 41 quarterly referrals continues to reflect a positive but statistically inconclusive estimate.

  3. 14 August 2025

     First published.

Applies to England and Wales

Documents

Evaluation of the County Lines Programme

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Evaluation of the County Lines Programme (updated) (January 2020 to January 2025)

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Details

The County Lines Programme aims to tackle the drug gangs that run county lines through violence and exploitation. The Home Office commissioned the London School of Economics to independently assess the impact of the programme on a range of crime types, primarily serious violence. The Home Office has also produced an updated assessment of the effectiveness of the County Lines Programme in addressing its key crime outcomes, expanding on the previous evaluation conducted in 2024 by the London School of Economics.

The 2025 evaluation and previous 2024 evaluation both indicate that the County Lines Programme leads to reductions in knife crime (measured through hospitalisations due to assault with a sharp object), and drug-related harms, as indicated by drug-misuse hospitalisations, within the exporter forces. Additionally, the evidence suggests that police-recorded crimes, such as violent offences and law enforcement efforts are increasing due to the County Lines Programme. However, this likely reflects heightened and targeted policing and changes in recording practices.