Estimating pupil numbers: how to complete your return for 2026 to 2027
How to complete the estimating pupil numbers form for academic year 2026 to 2027
Applies to England
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The estimating pupil numbers (EPN) form is now available for schools to provide estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2026 to 2027, where the funding agreement allows for estimate funding.
Please submit your form on or before 5:00pm Friday 24 October 2025. Your final budgets may be delayed if we do not receive your pupil number estimates by the deadline.
For multi-academy trusts, a return is required for each estimate funded academy in your trust. Once logged into the form, you will be able to see details for all academies within your trust that are in scope of this process.
We appreciate that estimating pupil numbers is not an exact science and can prove challenging. For most schools, a reasonable starting point to determine your estimated pupil numbers for the academic year 2026 to 2027 is your current actual intake. Where schools are expecting new year groups to be occupied within academic year 2026 to 2027, these should be reflected in the return.
Where estimates of pupil numbers are not provided, we will use the most recent census data to calculate your funding. If you are a growing school that is still adding year groups, this can result in a funding shortfall.
Moderation of estimated pupil numbers
We will review all estimated pupil numbers to ensure they are reasonable and well-evidenced. We will consider the October 2025 school census return, trends in pupil numbers, retention rates, the accuracy of previous estimates alongside any information you provide. If we have not accepted your figures, we will explain why, and schools will be given the opportunity to provide further evidence to support their estimates.
Where necessary, we will aim to contact schools in December 2025 to request additional evidence. Following this, there will be a further moderation before final outcomes are confirmed in January 2026.
Pupil number adjustments
Inaccurate estimates can cause significant adjustments to funding allocations. Each year we reconcile estimates with actual pupil numbers, through the pupil number adjustments (PNA) process.You can find more information in our academies funded on estimates guidance.
Where this adjustment is positive (for instance, where funded numbers are less than those recorded in the census) it is made in the same academic year. Where funded numbers are higher than those recorded in the census, we will recover funds in the 2027 to 2028 academic year.
Trusts that have met the conditions in their funding agreement to move to census funding
It may be that the basis of funding for your academy will change to the census for 2026 to 2027. This is because, for most estimate funded institutions, determining the pupil number basis for funding requires certain conditions to be met. These conditions are set out in the funding agreement and, in most cases, relate to occupancy levels and/or that there are pupils in all expected year groups. We will use the autumn 2025 census to establish if these conditions have been met.
If the conditions have been met, the academy will move onto the lagged basis of funding methodology which will use the autumn 2025 census to determine the pupil numbers in the general annual grant allocation. There is no pupil number adjustment with the lagged methodology.
Validated autumn 2025 school census data will be available in December 2025. We will then be able to determine the funding basis for academies with these conditional clauses. We are therefore asking for these estimates now as it will be too late to request EPN in time to inform this funding allocation round. We will confirm whether the basis for funding will be lagged or estimates for your academy in January 2026.
Important dates
The timeline for gathering and confirming 2026 to 2027 estimated pupil numbers is as follows:
| Date | Activity |
|---|---|
| 13 October 2025 | Estimating pupil numbers process launches – academies and trusts submit estimated pupil numbers |
| 24 October 2025 | Closing date for submitting the estimating pupil numbers online form |
| November 2025 to January 2026 | DfE reviews estimated pupil numbers – with possible follow up questions for academies |
| January 2026 | DfE will notify any academies that will no longer be funded on estimates in academic year 2026 to 2027 |
| January 2026 | DfE will confirm agreed estimated pupil numbers – academies and trusts will have 14 days to raise any queries |
| End of March 2026 | DfE will issue academic year 2026 to 2027 funding allocation statements |