Business readiness for Day 1 No Deal EU exit waves 4 to 6: executive summary
Published 15 July 2025
© Crown copyright 2025
This publication is licensed under the terms of the Open Government Licence v3.0 except where otherwise stated. To view this licence, visit nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence/version/3 or write to the Information Policy Team, The National Archives, Kew, London TW9 4DU, or email: psi@nationalarchives.gov.uk.
Where we have identified any third party copyright information you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned.
This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/business-readiness-for-a-day-1-no-deal-eu-exit-waves-4-to-6-research-report/business-readiness-for-day-1-no-deal-eu-exit-waves-4-to-6-executive-summary
Quantitative research on the preparedness of different groups of businesses for a potential No Deal scenario, in case this took place on 31 October 2019.
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) Research Report 765.
This research was commissioned under the Conservative administration (2010 to 2024), and was conducted by Ipsos (formerly Ipsos MORI) between July and September 2019.
Prepared by Ipsos (formerly Ipsos MORI) (Rebecca Klahr, Harry Williams, Sarah Fullick, Katie Hughes) for HMRC.
Disclaimer: The views in this report are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect those of HMRC.
1. Executive summary
HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) commissioned Ipsos MORI to conduct quantitative research on the preparedness of different groups of businesses for a potential No Deal scenario, in case this took place on 31 October 2019. This comprised 3 separate telephone surveys of VAT-registered businesses trading with the EU in July (wave 4), August (wave 5) and September 2019 (wave 6), to track readiness over time, building on the findings from 3 previous waves in January, February and March 2019. Intermediaries (covering customs brokers, freight forwarders and hauliers involved in trading with other EU countries and the wider supply chain) were interviewed in a single telephone survey around the same time as the fifth wave of the VAT-registered businesses survey.
1.1 Confidence in preparedness for a No Deal
Across the 3 most recent waves, over half of VAT-registered businesses felt confident in their preparedness for a potential No Deal scenario, although a substantial proportion were not confident (wave 4: 60% confident; wave 2: 57%; wave 3: 61%). This is in line with the surveys conducted earlier in 2019. Intermediaries had similar levels of confidence to VAT registered businesses (63%). Across both groups, those who were confident were more likely to be ‘fairly’ rather than ‘very’ confident.
1.2 Extent of preparation taken for a No Deal
Around 6 in 10 businesses reported either having begun preparations or plans to take action to prepare for a potential No Deal (wave 4: 58%; wave 5: 60%; wave 6: 60% intermediaries: 60%) and similar levels of preparedness were reported in earlier waves of the survey. The main reasons VAT-registered businesses and intermediaries gave for not preparing for a potential No Deal scenario related to uncertainty about what actions to take or they did not consider a No Deal scenario would affect them.
Among VAT-registered businesses preparing for a potential No Deal scenario, there was an increase in businesses that either reported they were ‘ready now’ over the survey waves (32% in wave 4 rising to 43% in wave 6), with a corresponding decline in those stating it would take ‘at least 4 months’ to prepare (9% in wave 4 versus 4% in wave 6). A similar pattern was observed in the first 3 waves. Three in ten intermediaries felt they were ready for a potential No Deal scenario at the time of the fieldwork. There was a high level of uncertainty about how long it would take to prepare amongst both intermediaries and VAT-registered businesses, with around one-fifth stating they did not know.
1.3 Type of action taken to prepare for a No Deal
Businesses and intermediaries were asked about the actions they had already taken, or planned to take in the future, to prepare for a potential No Deal scenario. The activities most commonly undertaken by both VAT-registered businesses and intermediaries were checking suppliers were ready and speaking to other businesses, with VAT registered businesses also likely to find out about tariffs when trading with other EU countries. Among VAT-registered businesses, the proportion who had taken action or were planning to was similar across the 3 waves.
In terms of the barriers stopping VAT-registered businesses and intermediaries from preparing, uncertainty was again most frequently mentioned. This was followed by lack of knowledge and lack of available or consistent information.
1.4 Changes to volume of and demand for work
Intermediaries were asked a series of questions relating to changes they may be planning to their work practices and volume of work to prepare for a potential No Deal. Half of intermediaries stated they had already or would handle more work for existing customers, with around 4 in 10 stating they had or planned to take on new customers or offer new services. Around one-third stated they had no plans to make any of these changes. Three in ten (31%) expected to change their volume of work and among this group two-thirds (68%) thought their workload would increase.
Over half (55%) of intermediaries had experienced no change in demand at the time of the survey. Of those that had seen changes, more had experienced a decrease (26%) than an increase (17%). When asked about expectations related to future demand, over one-third (36%) expected no change, with the rest split about whether it would be an increase or decrease (27% and 25% respectively). Seven in ten of those who had experienced or expected an increase said they should be able to meet at least most of this additional demand (69%). Customs Brokers were more likely to report an increase in demand, though less likely to be able to meet all of it.
1.5 Awareness of changes related to moving goods cross-border
The survey also asked about awareness of changes that would be introduced when moving goods over borders in a No Deal scenario. In waves 4 and 5 around 4 in 10 felt they knew at least a fair amount about changes to their responsibilities (41% and 38% respectively), rising to 45% in wave 6 following the government communications campaign. Intermediaries were generally more knowledgeable about moving goods with just over half (52%) saying they knew at least ‘a fair amount’ about what they must do in the event of No Deal.
When asked specifically about the need to make customs declarations for UK-EU trade in the event of a No Deal scenario, there was a significant increase in awareness among VAT-registered businesses between waves 5 and 6 after the government communications (from 81% to 88%). Nine in ten (91%) intermediaries were aware of the need to make customs declarations for UK-EU trade, and 7 in 10 (70%) said they intended to make declarations on behalf of their clients in the event of a No Deal.
After government communication and businesses being automatically allocated an EORI number by post, awareness of the need for an EORI number increased for VAT-registered businesses (from 70% in wave 5 to 81% in wave 6). Looking back to wave 1, there has been a 25 percentage point increase in awareness since January 2019 (when 56% said they were aware of the need for an EORI number). Among intermediaries, 7 in 10 (71%) were aware of the need for an EORI number, with 52% stating they had registered for one.
Awareness of Transitional Simplified Procedures (TSPs) also increased after government communications (33% in wave 5 rising to 42% in wave 6), but over half remained unaware throughout. For both TSPs and EORI numbers, the improvement in awareness was more pronounced among businesses only trading with the EU (for example 28% in wave 5 for TSPs compared with 41% in wave 6).
1.6 Information and support needs for a No Deal
Around 6 in 10 VAT-registered businesses in each wave and intermediaries said they would like more information on how to prepare for moving goods across the UK-EU border in the event of a No Deal EU Exit. When prompted with a range of topics this information and support could cover, at least half of VAT-registered businesses and intermediaries said they would find each useful. The information perceived most useful by VAT-registered businesses and intermediaries was information on VAT when trading with the EU, and information on tariffs.
The survey showed that specific types of businesses (for example, businesses trading with the EU and rest of world) and intermediaries (customs brokers and freight forwarders) tended to be more knowledgeable about specific procedures and were more likely to have already begun preparations. HMRC was found to be the most frequently cited source for where both businesses and intermediaries expected to find support. Therefore it will be important to continue to communicate to the wide range of businesses who will be affected by EU Exit to ensure they have the information needed to prepare effectively.