Policy paper

Annex A1: updating minimum and maximum numbers during 2019 badger control operations

Published 27 March 2020

Applies to England

© Crown copyright 2020

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This publication is available at https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/bovine-tb-summary-of-badger-control-monitoring-during-2019/annex-a1-updating-minimum-and-maximum-numbers-during-2019-badger-control-operations

Background

In 2019, as in previous years, it became apparent from daily data collected through the course of badger control operations and actual circumstances being observed in the field, that there was a wide range of badger abundance across the control areas. Specifically, some badger control companies were removing more badgers than expected and some were removing fewer despite equivalent amounts of effort deployed by similarly trained contractors.

This necessitated updating of the minimum and maximum numbers for 32[footnote 1] control areas following the advice published by Defra in September 2019 (Section D)[footnote 2].

Updating numbers in Areas 4 to 43

The method used to update the minimum and maximum numbers has not been changed since 2017, but has been improved to take into account further data from effective first year control areas[footnote 3] and effective second and third year control areas in previous years.[footnote 4]

For an area that had deployed sufficient effort, the minimum and maximum numbers were recalculated using an historical comparator. Taking data from the previous years’ effective control areas, the proportion of the Day 42 cull total that was achieved on each day in each area is calculated, then averaged across areas to generate the historical comparator. This allows the prediction of the expected Day 42 total for any area, from any given day. The minimum and maximum numbers are then set equidistant around the expected cull total.

The updated minimum and maximum numbers in 24 areas[footnote 5] were further increased by 1.5% per operational day, given continuation in those areas beyond 42 days in order to maximise disease control.

The data used to calculate the minimum and maximum numbers and the resulting updated numbers are presented in Table 1.

Table 1: Data for updating minimum and maximum numbers in Areas 11 to 43 during 2019 badger control operations.

Area Day Effort[footnote 6] Badgers removed to date Updated minimum number Updated maximum number
Area 11 – Cheshire 28 74.6 164 188 255
Area 12 – Devon 28 77.1 397 455 618
Area 13 – Devon 28 72.2 237 272 369
Area 14 – Devon 28 85.7 223 256 347
Area 15 – Devon 28 93.4 170 195 265
Area 16 – Dorset 28 67.2 897 1029 1396
Area 17 – Somerset 28 84.9 337 386 524
Area 18 – Somerset 28 96.1 148 170 230
Area 19 – Wiltshire 28 81.6 521 597 811
Area 20 – Wiltshire 28 81.4 441 506 686
Area 21 – Wiltshire 28 79.8 364 417 566
Area 22 – Cornwall 28 80.7 798 896 1216
Area 23 – Devon 28 107.7 849 954 1294
Area 24 – Devon 28 70.4 209 235 319
Area 25 – Devon 28 97.7 213 239 325
Area 26 – Devon 28 80.8 302 339 460
Area 27 – Devon 28 66.7 80 90 122
Area 28 – Devon 28 90.3 134 150 204
Area 29 – Gloucestershire 28 111.5 673 756 1026
Area 30 – Somerset 28 93.7 940 1056 1433
Area 31 – Staffordshire 28 92.5 1164 1307 1774
Area 33 – Avon 28 118.6 870 962 1306
Area 34 – Cheshire 28 140.8 1034 1144 1552
Area 35 – Cornwall 28 133.7 2191 2424 3289
Area 36 – Staffordshire 28 154.5 737 815 1106
Area 37 – Devon 28 133.9 1247 1380 1872
Area 38 – Devon 28 143.1 1415 1565 2124
Area 39 – Dorset 28 116 664 735 997
Area 40 – Herefordshire 28 122.5 1606 1777 2411
Area 41 – Staffordshire 28 171.3 1178 1303 1769
Area 42 – Wiltshire 28 134.1 2378 2631 3570
Area 43 – Wiltshire 28 110.2 1278 1434 1947

  1. Of the 8 remaining areas, 7 areas (Areas 4 to 10) did not have their minimum and maximum numbers updated owing to insufficient historical data on which to base calculations for areas in their fourth year of operations, and the other (Area 32 – Cumbria) did not have minimum and maximum numbers. ↩

  2. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/advice-to-natural-england-on-setting-minimum-and-maximum-numbers-of-badgers-to-be-controlled-in-2019. ↩

  3. In 2015 this was Area 3, in 2016 this was Areas 4 to 10, in 2017 this was Areas 11 to 21, and in 2018 this was Areas 22 to 31. ↩

  4. In 2016 this was Area 3 (Year 2), in 2017 this was Area 3 (Year 3) and Areas 4 to 10 (Year 2), and in 2018 this was Areas 4 to 10 (Year 3), and Areas 11 to 21 (Year 2). ↩

  5. Areas 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 20, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 30, 31, 34, 35, 36, 37, 38, 40, 41 and 42. The minimum and maximum numbers presented in Table 1 exclude the further increase by 1.5% per operational day. ↩

  6. All areas expended an appropriate level of targeted effort across their control area. For first year control areas this was a minimum of 112.7 effort units per 100km2 per night. For second, third and fourth year control areas this was relative to the abundance of badgers reported in the area, with a recommended target of 64 effort units per 100km2 per night. ↩

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