Research and analysis

Testing of overdue participants

Updated 25 May 2022

Applies to England

This is one of a series of summaries produced for the campaign, each focusing on a different evaluation measure (referred to as a metric) which reflects a key point in the patient pathway. These metrics should not be considered in isolation. Please refer to the considerations when interpreting these results.

Main findings

The first national ‘Cervical Screening Saves Lives’ campaign appears to have had an impact on the number of individuals tested who were overdue for screening by more than 12 months.

Background

This metric considers whether the ‘Cervical Screening Saves Lives’ campaign had an impact on the number of individuals responding to a screening invitation more than 12 months after their original invitation.

Individuals who respond more than a year after invitation are deemed to be lapsed responders.

There are a number of reasons for not responding to an invitation, this could include a pregnancy, having another health condition at the time of the invitation, or personal choice.

An increase in tests taken in individuals overdue for screening may show that the campaign has prompted them to attend.

Methods

The analysis period was quarter 4 (January to March 2019) to quarter 2 (July to September 2019). Data for this period was compared to the same 3 quarters in 2018. Further information on the methodology used for the campaign analysis is available.

Results for age group 25 to 49 years

Individuals in this age group are invited every 3 years.

Figure 1 below compares the number of tests in overdue individuals aged 25 to 49 years in England for the same quarters in the years 2018 and 2019.

Figure 1: Tests in overdue individuals aged 25 to 49 years, for years 2018 and 2019

Year Year 2018 Year 2019
Quarter 4 (Jan to Mar) 139,528 146,704
Quarter 1 (Apr to Jun) 106,606 112,967
Quarter 2 (Jul to Sep) 94,156 91,701

The data shows that:

  • in quarter 4 (January to March): there was a significant 5.1% increase from 139,528 in 2018 to 146,704 in 2019 (p<0.001)
  • in quarter 1 (April to June): there was a significant 6.0% increase from 106,606 in 2018 to 112,967 in 2019 (p<0.001)
  • in quarter 2 (July to September): there was a significant -2.6% decrease from 94,156 in 2018 to 91,701 in 2019 (p<0.001)

Tests in overdue individuals aged 25 to 49 years were above the long term trend during the campaign but had fallen below trend by quarter 2.

Figure 2 below shows a longer term trend for tests in overdue individuals in England from 2017 to 2020.

Figure 2: Tests in overdue individuals, from April 2017 to March 2020

The dotted line shows the linear trend for coverage over this time.

The line graph above shows an overall change from 100,349 for quarter 1 2017 to 2018 (April to June 2017) to 100,417 for quarter 4 2019 to 2020 (January to March 2020). The lowest point of the line is 89,641 for quarter 3 2017 to 2018 (October to December 2017). The highest point of the line is 146,704 for quarter 4 2018 to 2019 (January to March 2019).

Results for age group 50 to 64 years

Individuals in this age group are invited every 5 years.

Figure 3 below compares the number of tests in overdue individuals aged 50 to 64 years in England for the same quarters in the years 2018 and 2019.

Figure 3: Tests in overdue individuals aged 50 to 64 years, for years 2018 and 2019

Year Year 2018 Year 2019
Quarter 4 (Jan to Mar) 34,625 44,576
Quarter 1 (Apr to Jun) 34,132 40,338
Quarter 2 (Jul to Sep) 30,665 31,426

The data show that:

  • in quarter 4 (January to March): there was a significant 28.7% increase from 34,625 in 2018 to 44,576 in 2019 (p<0.001)
  • in quarter 1 (April to June): there was a significant 18.2% increase from 34,132 in 2018 to 40,338 in 2019 (p<0.001)
  • in quarter 2 (July to September): there was a non-significant 2.5% increase from 30,665 in 2018 to 31,426 in 2019 (p=0.002)

Tests in overdue individuals aged 50 to 64 years were above the long term trend during the campaign but had returned to trend by quarter 2.

Figure 4 below shows a longer term trend for tests in overdue individuals, in England from 2017 to 2020.

Figure 4: Tests in overdue individuals, from April 2017 to March 2020

The dotted line shows the linear trend for coverage over this time.

The line graph above shows an overall change from 30,273 for quarter 1 2017 to 2018 (April to June 2017) to 25,815 for quarter 4 2019 to 2020 (January to March 2020). The lowest point of the line is 25,815 for quarter 4 2019 to 2020 (January to March 2020). The highest point of the line is 44,576 for quarter 4 2018 to 2019 (January to March 2019).

Conclusions

There was a statistically significant increase in tests taken for individuals more than 12 months overdue for screening during the campaign for individuals aged 25 to 49 years and 50 to 64 years.

This increase is seen only during the campaign period, suggesting a short-term boost. This is likely to be as a result of the increased number of individuals attending for screening during the campaign.

The ‘Cervical Screening Saves Lives’ campaign appears to have had a short-term impact on the numbers of samples taken from individuals more than 12 months overdue for screening.

Get advice on the signs and symptoms of cancer from the NHS website. You can also find out more about the evaluation of Be Clear on Cancer campaigns.