Research and analysis

Analytical approach for the Road Investment Strategy 3

Published 30 April 2026

Applies to England

Chief Analyst foreword

The third Road Investment Strategy (RIS3) sets out the government’s plans for developing and improving the Strategic Road Network (SRN) to meet its long-term vision for a motorway and major A road network that is safe, reliable and efficient for everyone.

£24.99 billion will be made available to fund the operation, maintenance, renewal and enhancement of the network that will move us closer to that vision, through a detailed investment plan and a robust and tested performance framework. The government has provided a further £1.65 billion to deliver the publicly funded works on the Lower Thames Crossing (LTC) and £402 million of funding for 2 inward investment projects.

This investment will make a significant difference to the everyday experiences of millions of people using the SRN and the many businesses that rely on the network. As a result, it will support economic growth and prosperity.

The infrastructure that we invest in today will be serving this country into the next century, shaping our national landscape and the way we live our lives for decades to come. For that reason, evidence has played a crucial role in informing investment decisions in RIS3. We have improved the analysis and analytical models informing these decisions, building on the excellent work carried out for the first and second RISs.

In 2023 we consulted on our strategy for delivering relevant, robust and trusted analysis for RIS3. We have used the feedback and insights from this exercise to further improve our approach and this paper sets out how we have done that, working with our partners, National Highways (NH), Transport Focus and the Office of Rail and Road (ORR). It outlines:

• our approach to the analysis
• how the approach builds on previous RIS periods
• the engagement with stakeholders to build in their ideas and challenges
• high level results from the investment appraisal
• the next steps in analysis as the schemes develop and are tested further

Ian Mulheirn
Chief Analyst
Department for Transport

Executive summary

This document outlines the approach taken by the Department for Transport (DfT), alongside our partner organisations National Highways, the Office of Rail and Road and Transport Focus, to deliver the analysis underpinning the third Road Investment Strategy (RIS3).

This publication builds on the analysis to inform RIS3, published with the RIS3 consultation, which set out plans to develop our analytical approach, methods and tools, building on those developed for the second Road Investment Strategy (RIS2).

RIS3 sets out the investment in the Strategic Road Network (SRN) during the third road period (RP3) which will run from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031. This follows a 1-year interim settlement covering the period 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026. The analysis underpinning RIS3 is structured around 4 key elements:

• vision – setting out short- and long-term ambitions for the network
• performance specification – defining the levels of performance that National Highways is expected to achieve during RP3
• investment plan – outlining the government’s spending priorities for RIS3
• statement of funds available (SoFA) – setting out the financial resources to deliver RIS3

To support delivery, National Highways will publish:

• a strategic business plan (SBP) – setting out its strategic direction and the outcomes it plans to deliver during RP3
• a delivery plan – which describes how and when activities will be delivered and how these link to performance outcomes

DfT’s Analysis to inform RIS3, published alongside the consultation, established 3 objectives for the analysis: that it should be relevant, robust and trusted:

• relevant analysis supports effective decision-making for RIS3
• robust analysis provides sound evidence that decision-makers can rely on
• trusted analysis builds confidence and consensus amongst policymakers, analysts and key stakeholders in both methods and results

Analysis has informed all 4 core elements of RIS3, supporting decisions on the vision, performance specification, investment plan and statement of funds available.

To ensure that the analysis is robust and trusted, the Department for Transport and National Highways have actively engaged with stakeholders and experts on the analytical approach used to support RIS3.

From May to July 2023, the department held a public consultation on the National Highways Strategic Network (SRN) initial report, providing an opportunity for stakeholders to challenge and inform the development of the analysis.

Development of the analysis was informed through ongoing engagement with National Highways, helping to address key issues raised and strengthen the overall approach. Alongside this, a robust assurance framework was put in place, with the level of assurance tailored to the complexity of the analysis and the decisions it informed.

Analysis for the investment plan has provided an overall value for money (VfM) assessment of the RIS3 package, which alongside the other elements of the Department for Transport’s business case framework (including strategic, financial, commercial and management) supports programme decision-making.

Table 1: Major spending lines and VfM assessments for the RIS3 package

Major RIS3 spending line	VfM assessment[footnote 1]
Operations	Medium
Maintenance	Very high and financially positive
Renewals	Very high
Enhancements[footnote 2]	Medium
Designated funds	High

VfM assessments have been developed for each major funding line within the RIS3 portfolio, drawing on both quantified and qualitative appraisal evidence of the impacts of projects and programmes. As shown in table 1, these assessments indicate that the investment plan delivers high value for money overall. Further detail on the evidence underpinning these assessments is set out in the section How the analysis inform the RIS3 investment decision.

Analysis will continue to play a significant role in informing decisions as RIS3 is delivered, with ongoing stakeholder engagement underpinning the development and refinement of the evidence base.

Summary of analytical approach

The objectives for the analysis of RIS3

This document presents the approach taken by the department, National Highways and partner organisations to the analysis of RIS3. It demonstrates how the analysis has been assured and how it meets key objectives of being relevant, robust and trusted analysis. Specifically, it explains:

• why analysis is important in informing RIS3 decisions
• the approach taken to developing the analytical evidence base
• how engagement with stakeholders and experts has shaped the analysis
• how the analysis has informed key RIS3 decisions
• how the analysis will continue to develop as the RIS3 programme is delivered

On 26 March 2026, the government published the Road Investment Strategy 3, providing an investment package of over £27 billion for the SRN covering 2026 to 2031.

This includes £24.99 billion for operations, maintenance, renewals and enhancements of the network with additional £402 million of funding for 2 inward investment projects and a further £1.65 billion to deliver the publicly funded works on the Lower Thames Crossing.

RIS3 also sets out the performance framework which brings together all the requirements within the road period that National Highways commits to achieve. This includes output volumes from investment, and performance targets that National Highways must deliver and metrics against which it must report.

More broadly, the strategy specifies a package of investment to be delivered in the third road period. This includes funding for operations, capital enhancements, maintenance and renewals of the network. It also includes investment through designated funds and national programmes which aim to support the improvement of safety, encourage innovation, and wider productivity, housing and environmental benefits.

Analysis has informed the vision, supported the development of the performance framework and played a significant role in underpinning decisions on the investment plan.

The approach builds on the analysis for RIS2, by evolving to reflect changing user needs and to better capture the impacts of different interventions.

Analysis informs each of the different elements of RIS3

The analysis covers all the 4 key elements of RIS3:

• vision – analytical work has been undertaken to improve understanding of the future requirements of the Strategic Road Network. This includes assessing future demand for road travel and exploring key uncertainties using alternative scenarios, such as different assumptions on economic growth and vehicle fleet composition
• performance specification – by identifying how investment affects outcomes on the SRN, analysis has informed the setting of key performance indicators and supported the development of the broader metric framework used to assess National Highways’ performance
• investment plan – analysis has played a significant role in examining the impacts of alternative investment packages, supporting the identification of a high-performing investment plan. This includes identifying problems on the network, developing potential options to address them, and assessing the impacts of different packages. National Highways has applied its established analytical approaches to assess traffic impacts alongside wider economic, environmental and social implications
• statement of funds available – cost modelling for the different elements of the SoFA package has been developed and improved to support understanding of affordability and funding requirements

Building on the analysis developed for RIS2

The analysis supporting RIS3 builds on the foundations established for RIS1 and RIS2, with significant development to reflect changing user needs, policy priorities and improvements in analytical tools and evidence.

Analysis informed RIS3 through:

• development and refinement of performance metrics, improving understanding of user needs and supporting the design of a more targeted performance specification
• a stronger emphasis on the strategic case for schemes, ensuring closer alignment with the departmental objectives and government priorities
• updated traffic modelling, with full SRN coverage, enabling improved forecasting of traffic flows and speeds following major road enhancements
• the development of an enhanced evaluation approach for the RIS programme, including bespoke evaluation methodologies for specific investment lines

The RIS3 investment plan is underpinned by the sound application of the department’s appraisal framework, transport analysis guidance (TAG), to assess the economic, social and environmental impacts of schemes in a consistent and proportionate way.

Overall, this represents a development from earlier road periods, with analysis applied more systematically across all elements of RIS3 to support robust, transparent and evidence-based decision making.

How analysis feeds into the different areas of RIS3

This document outlines how analysis feeds into the following elements of RIS3:

• the vision
• the performance specification
• the investment plan
• the statement of funds available (SoFA)

Vision

RIS3 sets 6 strategic objectives, aligned with government missions:

• grow the economy – major renewals and preventative maintenance, reflecting the challenges of ageing assets, together with a targeted enhancements portfolio
• improve safety for all – improving safety on the SRN, focusing on sections of the network with the highest safety needs
• a level of network performance that meets customers’ needs – prioritising actions which meet customer requirements of the network
• a technology enabled and enabling network – making the most of technology to improve performance for the road users and leveraging efficiencies for National Highways
• a resilient network that is planned and managed for the long term – intelligence-based, proactive maintenance and renewals to protect network assets, as well as actions to build resilience to climate change
• deliver improved environmental outcomes – meeting legislative commitments and focusing effort on those aspects of the network where the greatest improvements can be made

The vision for RIS3 sets out the government’s ambitions for the SRN in both the short and long term. It provides National Highways, along with customers, suppliers and other stakeholders, with a clear articulation of objectives and a shared direction of travel across the current and future road periods.

To support the development of the vision, the department strengthened its understanding of the future requirements of the SRN. This included analysis of future demand for road travel and the key uncertainties around it, as well as consideration of how RIS3 investment can contribute to Department for Transport and wider government objectives. Research was undertaken to identify the most significant long-term challenges and uncertainties facing the SRN, drawing on expert insight. The findings from this work were incorporated into, and helped shape, the RIS3 vision.

Analysis underpinning the vision drew on objective impact analysis and the use of common analytical scenarios. Objective impact analysis supported understanding of the quantitative and qualitative impacts of different investment choices, and how these contribute to RIS3’s strategic objectives. Common analytical scenarios provide a cross modal framework for considering uncertainty, including the effects of changes in economic growth, technology, decarbonisation and travel behaviour. These scenarios supported assessment of how different futures could affect the performance and role of the SRN.

Evidence on future demand formed an important part of this work. The department’s National road traffic projections, published in 2022, present strategic projections of road travel demand under the common analytical scenarios. These projections indicate that total road vehicle mileage is forecast to rise by around 10% by 2035 across all roads and by around 12% on the SRN. Increased demand has implications for congestion, journey time reliability and productivity. Changes in the composition of demand, including higher levels of HGV traffic, also affect asset durability and constrain opportunities for planned maintenance and renewals.

For enhancement schemes, analysis for RIS3 has used traffic modelling to assess future traffic patterns under scenarios with and without individual interventions. This has enabled appraisal of impacts including journey time benefits, reliability, safety outcomes and wider economic effects such as business productivity and access to jobs. Environmental impacts, including greenhouse gas emissions, local air quality and noise, have also been assessed. Further detail on how these methods have been applied across major funding lines is provided in the section How the analysis informs the RIS3 decision.

The analytical work has addressed the challenges associated with ageing assets on the SRN, many of which are operating beyond their original design life while facing increasing traffic demand and the effects of climate change. Analysis has therefore also been developed to improve assessment of operations, maintenance, and renewals, including consideration of resilience to higher temperatures, increased precipitation and more extreme weather events.

The evaluation of the RIS programme and projects has also been developed during the previous road period. This includes the evaluation of major projects being improved to increase efficiency and timeliness of benefits monitoring, the incorporation of customer experience and social value as part of future post opening project evaluations (POPEs), bespoke evaluation designs for designated funds and smaller investments and methodologies under development for the evaluation of operations, maintenance and renewals. The outputs from these activities have also been used to establish the objectives for RIS3, considering the impacts and lessons learnt from previous road periods to better set priorities for RP3. An evaluation scoping study conducted in 2024 gave further suggestions for establishing the impact of the RIS programme, which are now being considered.

Performance specification

The performance specification sets out the government’s high-level expectations for National Highways during RP3. It defines how performance on the SRN will be assessed and monitored, bringing together the metrics, targets and descriptive commitments that underpin delivery of RIS3.

The performance specification for RIS3 builds on the performance measures used in RIS1 and RIS2, providing continuity while incorporating targeted improvements to reflect evolving user needs, government priorities and improvements in evidence and data.

The performance measures are structured around 6 performance outcome areas:

• improving safety for all
• providing fast and reliable journeys
• a well maintained and resilient network
• being environmentally responsible
• meeting the needs of all users
• achieving efficient delivery

Within each outcome area, performance is assessed using:

• key performance indicators (KPIs) – which set clear, measurable targets
• performance Indicators (PIs) – which provide additional context and support transparency
• descriptive commitments – which capture priorities not suited to quantitative targets, such as developing new metrics for future road periods or improving data quality

Targeted KPIs have been focused on those aspects of performance most closely aligned with user priorities and government objectives. Both KPIs and PIs have been assessed against a common set of agreed metric and target-setting principles before being considered for inclusion in the performance specification. These principles seek to ensure that metrics are realistic, challenging, and proportionate, while remaining aligned with outcomes, supported by robust data and actionable by National Highways. Table 2 sets out the principles applied.

Table 2: RIS3 target and metric-setting principles for metrics used in the performance specification

RIS3 target and metric-setting principle	Definition
Realistic, yet challenging	Targets are challenging but achievable.
Appropriate	Targets are based on evidence and have a strong rationale. They will be derived from the latest available benchmarked data. Targets will ideally be based on a minimum of 3 years’ worth of baseline data. Relevant forecast models will be used to make informed estimates of future performance to ensure targets are appropriate throughout the third road period.
Robust	A design which is transparent, verifiable and from high-quality data that is reliable, sound and has been analytically assured.
Aligned	Evidence that we are focusing on the priorities of National Highways’ key stakeholders and SRN users. Each metric should be directly allied to an outcome area(s) to measure performance.
Actionable	National Highways can influence outcomes and associated measures. Its leadership role can support ambition. Whilst National Highways is unlikely to have complete influence over all outcomes and measures, this should not preclude their inclusion in the performance specification. Measures incentivise the right behaviours from the company.
Future-proof	They speak to forward-looking priorities, not just historic priorities. Metrics should be reviewed as part of the RIS setting process and only by exception within RIS delivery.
Representative	The metric provides a representative view of performance across the SRN through complete data coverage or an appropriate sample. Where possible, metrics can be reported at different levels (for example, national, regional, route, road, link) to assist in driving performance improvements.
Understandable	It is understood by stakeholders or can be made accessible through a clear communications plan.
Cost effective	Metric cost (in both cost of data and cost of processing/person time/level of effort) is proportionate to its value.

The performance specification is closely related to the analysis underpinning the vision, SoFA and investment plan, drawing on much of the same evidence base.

Many of the forecast models developed ahead of RIS3, both to inform target‑setting discussions and to understand wider performance trends, made use of outputs from the regional traffic models (RTMs).

For example, the RTM scenarios were used within the average delay and safety forecast models, alongside historic performance data and historic‑year weather patterns, to generate plausible national‑level trajectories of network performance. These trajectories were used to inform discussions on potential targets, rather than explicitly set them.

Where the development of forecasting models was not appropriate, other approaches were used to inform target-setting. These included:

• analysis of historic performance
• external benchmarking
• statistical testing

During RIS2, the department committed to developing new metrics or refining existing metrics for potential inclusion in RIS3. This included the introduction of new and improved metrics for journey time reliability, delay from roadworks and a ride quality metric which better reflects road users’ experience of the network.

All metrics and targets included in the performance specification are set out in the RIS3 publication. Metrics previously included in the RIS2 performance specification were reviewed as part of this process, with some taken forward, and others removed or replaced where appropriate. Tables 3a to 3d summarise the key metric changes since the previous road period.

Table 3a: performance indicators which changed from RIS2 to RIS3 – improving safety for all

PI / KPI	RIS2	RIS3
The accident frequency rate for National Highways staff based on Reporting of Injuries, Diseases and Dangerous Occurrences Regulations (RIDDOR)	Included	Replaced by Lost Time Indicator (LTI) PI to measure the safety of National Highways’ workforce. LTI has been viewed as more aligned with National Highways’ key stakeholder requirements and internal performance metrics
The accident frequency rate for National Highways supply chain staff based on RIDDOR	Included	Replaced by Lost Time Indicator PI to measure the safety of National Highways’ supply chain staff

Table 3b: performance indicators which changed from RIS2 to RIS3 – providing fast and reliable journeys

PI / KPI	RIS2	RIS3
Roadworks network impact	Included later during RIS2 as a KPI	Not included – the metric ceased at the end of RIS2 and was replaced by an updated network availability metric during the Interim Settlement year and this has been retained in RIS3. This updated metric is better aligned with actionable and understandable metric principles.
Delay on smart motorways	Included – the metric underwent some development during RIS2 but was discontinued in the Interim Settlement.	Not included – the approach taken for RIS3 is to view smart motorways as a subset of the SRN delay rather than being treated separately

Table 3c: performance indicators which changed from RIS2 to RIS3 – a well maintained and resilient network

PI / KPI	RIS2	RIS3
All lane running (ALR) technology availability	Not included	KPI metric shadow run in Interim Settlement and included in RIS3 – consideration will be given to replacing this metric with an SRN-wide technology availability KPI once National Highways performance data is sufficiently robust

Table 3d: performance indicators which changed from RIS2 to RIS3 – being environmentally responsible

PI / KPI	RIS2	RIS3
Corporate carbon emissions	Included as KPI in RIS2 using Green Government Committee definition for reporting.	Included as PI in RIS3 – basis of metric changed with NH to report corporate carbon using science based targets initiative (SBTi) definition, alongside statutory annual reporting using Greening Government Committee (GGC) definition.

The performance metrics are underpinned by a continuous refinement and improvement process by National Highways, undergoing consistent monitoring and going through multiple levels of assurance and governance. KPI targets have also been reviewed and refined in the period, considering outturn performance. For example, the roadworks information timeliness and accuracy target was set for RIS2 based on a limited run of performance data. As the metric bedded down into National Highways businesses, the metric target was revised downwards. Metric changes are agreed through a formal process within National Highways, requiring a full assessment of the proposed change.

The performance specification is also subject to development over time, to include metrics which accurately reflect the changes in user needs, data available and support National Highways management processes. In RIS2, the basis of road user satisfaction changed to an online survey, with the target adjusted to reflect the change in methodology.

Investment plan

The investment plan sets out the government’s expenditure priorities and what that programme is expected to deliver in terms of outputs. Analysis has played a significant role in informing and assessing different options. Across the RIS3 business case and decision-making process, 2 complementary forms of analysis have been used: value for money analysis and objective impact analysis.

Value for money analysis

Value for money analysis was conducted for schemes in line with HMT’s Green Book and DfT’s transport analysis guidance (TAG). This analysis assesses the positive and negative impacts of interventions on individuals in the UK and considers whether the benefits outweigh the costs. It underpins the economic case for RIS3.

TAG sets out a comprehensive appraisal framework, covering economic, environmental, and social impacts. Tables 4, 5 and 6 summarise the different elements of appraisal within TAG, including transport user benefits, wider economic impacts, environmental effects, and social impacts.

Table 4: RIS3 economic impact appraisal themes covered by TAG

TAG element	Explanation
Transport user benefits	The value to transport users of cost and time saved journeys
Wider economic impacts	Economic impacts over and above those measured by user benefits
Scheme costs	The expected cost of delivering a scheme for optimism bias
Reliability	The value of public transport punctuality and alleviating delays on highways
Indirect tax revenues	The change in government revenue from transport-related taxes (for example, fuel duty) due to changes in travel behaviour from schemes
Public accounts	The impact of the scheme on government finances

Table 5: environmental impact appraisal themes covered by TAG

Environmental impacts	Explanation
Greenhouse gases	The cost of offsetting additional greenhouse gas emissions due to transport schemes
Air quality	The human health cost of transport pollutant emissions (PM10 and Nox)
Noise	The human health and annoyance costs of transport noise
Landscape	The value of natural environment
Biodiversity	The environmental capital of biodiversity and earth heritage
Water environment	The environment capital of natural water features
Townscape	The physical and social characteristics of the built and non-built urban environment
Historic environment	The value of man-made historic resources and assets

Table 6: social and distributional impact appraisal themes covered by TAG

Social impacts	Explanation
Physical activity	The value to public health of decreased mortality risk through physical activity
Journey quality	The value of the journey experience, such as comfort, crowding and information
Accidents	The value of reducing fatalities and injuries on the transport network
Accessibility	The value of social inclusion and equity to access to other people, places and services
Security	The real and perceived value of safety and security for transport users
Severance	The cost of decreased community cohesion when divided by physical infrastructure
Personal affordability	The ability of transport users to afford transport services
Option and non-use values	The value of a transport service over and above its expected use or the altruistic value planted on its existence
Distributional Impacts	The distribution of costs and benefits across different social groups, income levels, and geographic areas, including how impacts such as air quality, accessibility, and affordability are experienced

Transport user benefits include assessing the value businesses attach to changes in journey time and journey time reliability for moving freight. These impacts are quantified using road freight values of time, which are currently being updated and are expected to enter TAG guidance in May 2026. This represents one example of how appraisal techniques have developed since RIS2, with the section How analysis informs the RIS3 decision setting out the implications of these updates for value for money.

National Highways has applied the analytical approach set out in TAG to assess the impacts of different investment packages and to support discussions on the performance specification.

Analytical tools supporting appraisal

The analytical approach draws on a number of key components:

• regional traffic models (RTMs) – these provide a consistent approach to traffic modelling of the SRN across England. They forecast how traffic flows and speeds change following infrastructure investment and cover the SRN alongside A and B classified local roads. The RTMs were developed during RIS2 and updated to a second generation for RIS3, incorporating greater detail to support early scheme development, a wider range of scenarios and improved freight representation. For major enhancements, bespoke scheme specific models were derived from the second generation regional base models to provide inputs to appraisal tools
• outcome models – outputs from the RTMs are used by National Highways within outcome models to assess the economic, social and environmental impacts of RIS3 interventions and to inform the development of metrics and indicators within the performance specification. Existing models were reviewed, updated or renewed, including those supporting current KPIs. For example, the delay outcome model used to assess delays arising from roadworks on enhancement schemes draws on updated second generation traffic model data to improve the precision of delay estimates
• economic impact tools – National Highways appraises the impacts of transport interventions using a suite of analytical tools and transport models to estimate monetised benefits associated with individual schemes, including time and cost savings, reliability, safety outcomes, and wider impacts on employment, investment, and productivity where applicable

Objective impact analysis

National Highways have developed objective impact analysis (OIA) to support the development of RIS3. It assesses the contribution of major enhancement schemes that are committed or under consideration, as well as designated funds, to the achievement of RIS3 strategic objectives.

OIA considers how individual schemes, or groups of schemes, contribute to a set of strategic objectives and supports decision making by enabling schemes to be prioritised while maintaining visibility of trade-offs across different objectives. It is complementary to value for money analysis and is designed to help decision makers understand how interventions align with the strategic case.

Table 7 sets out the objective impact analysis metrics that align with the objectives for RIS3. OIA was applied where possible – primarily in the assessment of enhancements schemes – to demonstrate how different investment choices contribute to the delivery of RIS3 objectives.

Table 7: objective impact assessment metrics

Objectives for RIS3[footnote 3]	Identified OIA metrics
Improving safety for all	Casualties saved (fatal, serious and slight)
Network performance to meet customer needs.	Journey time savings (people hours saved)
Growing the economy	Transport economic efficiencies business (+ wider economic benefits)
Improved environmental outcomes	Carbon: road user emissions
Improved environmental outcomes	Carbon: construction emissions
Improved environmental outcomes	Carbon: renewals and maintenance emissions
Improved environmental outcomes	Carbon: operational emissions
Improved environmental outcomes	Biodiversity

Statement of funds available (SoFA)

The SoFA outlines the resources available to National Highways to deliver the objectives of RIS3.

In total, over £27 billion of funding is available for the period from 2026 to 2031. Of this, £24.99 billion is provided to support core RIS3 activities, including operations, maintenance, renewals and enhancements. This is outlined in table 8.

In addition to the core funding set out below, ring fenced funding is provided to support the delivery of 2 inward investment projects (£402 million up to 2029-30) and to deliver the publicly funded works on the Lower Thames Crossing (£1.65 billion to 2029-30). All funding is provided within the department’s resource departmental expenditure limit (RDEL) and capital departmental expenditure limit (CDEL).

Table 8: statement of funds available for core RIS3 activities

Year	Funding (£m)
FY26/27	4,887
FY27/28	4,938
FY28/29	4,908
FY29/30	5,029
FY30/31	5,224
Total	24,986

Building on the approach used in RIS2, analysis has supported the development of the SoFA by improving understanding of affordability, funding requirements, and efficiency across different elements of the programme. Analysis has enabled:

• National Highways and ORR to understand the current and future condition of National Highways’ assets and the funding implications for RIS3 and beyond
• assessments of options for addressing different network needs, undertaken in line with HM Treasury’s Green Book guidance and the department’s transport analysis guidance
• improved cost estimates, drawing on information from National Highways’ cost database
• independent challenge of cost estimates by ORR, to assess robustness and identify potential efficiency improvements

Office of Rail and Road cost and efficiency review

ORR’s role in the RIS development process is to provide advice to the Secretary of State for Transport on whether emerging proposals are likely to represent a challenging yet deliverable proposition within available funding, with a particular focus on efficiency.

ORR also advises on the metrics and targets that form the performance specification.

The efficiency review of National Highways’ draft strategic business plan for RIS3 (PDF, 1.4MB) (published on the ORR website) is the central component of this advice.

A range of analyses underpin ORR’s conclusions. The primary forms of analysis are as follows:

• Scrutiny of National Highway’s cost estimates – ORR assessed whether National Highway’s cost estimates are robustly evidenced and, where appropriate, provided recommendations on how these should be adjusted. There was no single analytical approach to this task. Where possible, ORR benchmarked the company’s cost estimates against evidence from past delivery and considered whether any variations were properly evidenced and justified. For RIS3, ORR commissioned research into input price inflation (PDF, 700KB) to inform its assessment of the appropriateness of National Highways’ inflation assumptions.
• Benchmarking National Highways’ efficiency proposals – a key objective of the efficiency review is to assess whether the company’s proposals strike an appropriate balance between being stretching and achievable. To inform this judgement, ORR established benchmarks against which the efficiency proposals were compared. These benchmarks drew on 3 sources of evidence: trends in productivity in related industries; efficiency targets in other regulated sectors at a similar stage of maturity (organisations entering their third regulatory period); and capability reviews assessing the scope for efficiencies based on the company’s current performance and systems.
• Analysis supporting ORR’s advice on the performance specification – ORR also assessed whether proposed performance targets were both challenging and deliverable. Approaches varied across indicators, but typically involved comparing proposed targets with recent performance trends, while taking account of factors that may influence future outcomes.

Engaging with stakeholders and ensuring robust analysis

Understanding user needs

Understanding user needs is central to ensuring that RIS3 reflects the priorities of those who use and are affected by the Strategic Road Network. We have actively engaged with user groups throughout the RIS3 process to ensure that users had opportunities to:

• feed in their priorities and concerns as RIS3 was being developed
• challenge the overall analytical approach underpinning the strategy

Alongside user engagement, we have worked closely with a range of stakeholders to build confidence in the analysis and to ensure that it has been consulted widely and robustly.

Improving our understanding of user needs

A range of activities has been undertaken to strengthen understanding of users’ needs and to inform the analytical evidence base for RIS3. These include:

• route strategies – National Highways has developed route strategy documents in consultation with customers and stakeholders. These provide a detailed evidence base on the condition and performance of the network, identify current issues and investment priorities, and help to understand future challenges
• strategic studies – the department commissioned National Highways to undertake a series of strategic studies to address some of the most complex challenges on the SRN. Most studies have now concluded, and their recommendations have helped shape decisions investment priorities and decisions for RIS3 and beyond
• performance specification engagement – the department held a series of tailored sessions with key stakeholders covering each of the outcome areas of the performance specification, taking views on how measures and expectations should be developed for RIS3
• initial report – in May 2023, National Highways published their SRN initial report, underpinned by the work undertaken on route strategies. This summarised customer, community and stakeholder priorities, the condition of the network, proposals for targeting improvements over the third road period and how these could be delivered
• public consultation – the Department for Transport subsequently consulted on this initial report between May and July 2023. The government’s response to the public consultation (Shaping the future of England’s strategic roads) was published alongside the Draft RIS3 in August 2025

Together, these activities have enhanced the analytical work underpinning RIS3 by improving understanding of network issues, user priorities, and potential options across the SRN.

Close work with Transport Focus has ensured that user perspectives have been built into the analysis

Transport Focus has provided insights and recommendations throughout the development of RIS3, starting from their publication outlining road users’ priorities for improvements to the SRN^{[footnote 4]}. This advice has been informed by expert evidence, research and responses to the Strategic Road Users Survey and Logistics and Coach Manager Survey.

This approach has ensured that the views and priorities of road users across the country were understood and were considered as government shaped the strategy.

Through Transport Focus’ research, we know that users see road surface quality as a key priority for improving SRN journeys. Additionally, those who use the network want to see:

• better management of roadworks
• better management of unplanned delays, such as collisions and breakdowns
• better information about any disruptions

National Highways’ own customer insight work has been used to validate Transport Focus’s work.

The impacts of the investment plan on active travel have also been considered in the analysis. This has been informed by insight from Transport Focus and Active Travel England on the experience of cyclists, pedestrians and equestrians. Benefits of active travel have also been included within designated funds, considering the impacts of the investment strategy on people who use the network and local communities. National Highways will also continue to report biannually its active travel performance and initiatives to serve riders, walkers and cyclists, building on the approach used in the previous road period.

Active engagement with stakeholders

Active engagement with stakeholders has helped to build trust in the analysis underpinning RIS3 and to strengthen the robustness of the evidence base.

The department held a public consultation on National Highways’ Strategic Network (SRN) initial report between May and July 2023. The report set out National Highways’ proposals and priorities for the management and development of the Strategic Road Network during RP3.

The consultation received 453 responses from individuals and organisations, including:

• local authorities
• sub-national transport bodies
• business groups
• safety and environmental campaign groups
• road user groups

The most common themes raised through the consultation included the need to improve road safety and deliver better environmental outcomes. Many respondents supported a stronger focus on maintaining and renewing the existing network, alongside a clear emphasis on reducing carbon emissions from both road users and construction activity.

Additional stakeholder consultation workshops were held in September 2025 to understand whether views had changed since the 2023 consultation. Feedback from these workshops showed strong support for prioritising maintenance, renewals and the resilience of existing assets over new road building.

The results of this engagement have informed the development of the analytical approach, ensuring that it better reflects:

• the assessment of benefits and costs associated with operations, maintenance and renewals
• the impacts of interventions on RIS3 objectives, including growing the economy and achieving improved environmental outcomes
• the impacts of interventions on people through the application of objective impact analysis
• uncertainty, using common analytical scenarios to reflect a range of economic, geographic, behavioural and technological futures, resulting in different traffic demand growth projections

Internal assurance of analysis

Alongside external engagement, a structured and proportionate approach has been taken to assuring the analysis. The level of assurance applied has been tailored to the complexity of the analysis and the nature of the decisions it supports.

The department’s analytical assurance processes are in line with its Strength in Numbers guidance. This framework provides assurance across 4 tiers, reflecting increasing analytical complexity, risk and decision significance. These include assurance at the level of individual analytical products within organisations, assurance by senior managers and independent reviewers, cross organisational assurance through analytical working groups, and assurance by independent external experts for the more technical or novel RIS3 analytical products.

Table 9: the tiered assurance levels that DfT uses in its analysis

Complexity and Importance	Levels of assurance and type of analysis
High	Level 4 – independent external experts For more technical or novel pieces of analysis
Medium – High	Level 3 – across organisations (through cross organisation analytical groups) Key elements of RIS3 analysis
Medium – Low	Level 2 – within organisations (by senior manager/supervisor and independent reviewer) Low risk RIS3 analysis
Low	Level 1 – at level of analysis, within organisation (e.g. project lead) Covers all analytical pieces

Internal assurance within the department is designed around 3 key dimensions:

• the scope and depth of challenge to the analysis
• the risks of an error and the inherent uncertainty in the analytical advice
• the extent to which uncertainty has been identified, assessed and reduced

In addition to internal assurance within the department and within National Highways, detail on the analytical approach and findings from the analysis have been shared with key stakeholders, including the Office of Rail and Road and Transport Focus, through the department’s project delivery board. This has supported challenge and feedback from policy, delivery and regulatory perspectives, helping to ensure that the analysis remains relevant and fit for purpose.

How the analysis informs the RIS3 investment decision

Analysis has helped to shape the investment plan through business case appraisal undertaken in line with transport analysis guidance and HM Treasury’s Green Book. This appraisal set out the value of money of the various options considered during the RIS3 process.

The investment priorities in RIS3 differ from previous road periods due to the changing needs of the network, with a greater emphasis on maintenance and renewals driven by the ageing state of the strategic road network. This has resulted in a higher proportion of total expenditure allocated to maintenance and renewals, with renewals spend increasing from 15% in RIS2 to 34% in RIS3^{[footnote 5]}.

As a result, the analytical approach for RIS3 placed greater emphasis on developing methodologies for analysis of operations, maintenance and renewals, building the approaches undertaken for RIS2 to ensure that decision makers had the appropriate information available.

In addition, environmental analysis has been further developed, including how impacts on air quality, greenhouse gas emissions and noise have been considered.

Assessment of operations, maintenance and renewals

Each area of OMR has been assessed individually:

• operations are defined as costs associated with the day to day running of the SRN, for example, traffic monitoring or responding to incidents
• maintenance is defined as activities that sustain the performance of SRN’s physical assets, for example, repairing potholes or technical faults
• renewals are defined as capital expenditure to replace or refurbish existing assets

This has been assessed through a variety of quantitative and qualitative approaches. Benefit cost ratios (BCRs) and net present values (NPVs) have been used where possible, alongside case studies, logic maps, and multi-criteria analysis where evidence is more limited, technical methods are not well established, and/or it is not proportionate to carry out complex analysis.

The analytical work has included:

• aligning VfM of spend to RIS3 outcomes through logic maps
• assessing the value of traffic officer services in helping to operate the network
• modelling the cost of closures on the network to understand the impact of unplanned closures compared to proactive maintenance
• appraisal of key asset types from significant structures to drainage and flexible/rigid pavement to help assess the need for renewal spend
• impact of unexpected structure failure on the network using historic – setting out the trade-offs of reactive work
• case studies drawing upon evidence such as the upgrade of the A52 Clifton Bridge in Nottingham

Table 10: VfM assessments of operations, maintenance and renewals spending lines

Major RIS3 spending line	VfM assessment
Operations	Medium
Maintenance	Very high and financially positive
Renewals	Very high

Overall, these activities have been assessed individually due to the disparate nature of the activities with operations being assessed as ‘medium’, maintenance as ‘very high and financially positive’ and renewals as ‘very high’.

Assessment of committed enhancements

Committed enhancements are outlined in the final RIS publication. LTC has been included within the VfM assessment below and has been assessed using established processes for transport appraisal of road schemes in line with TAG.

This includes:

• modelling traffic flows with National Highways’ 2nd generation of regional traffic models and bespoke scheme traffic models
• quantifying the journey time benefits and reliability for road users
• assessing safety impacts using cost and benefit to accidents
• considering the wider economic effects, including agglomeration and employment effects
• forecasting environmental impacts from noise through to carbon emissions

Table 11: VfM assessments of enhancements spending lines

Major RIS3 spending line	VfM assessment
Enhancements (new freight values of time)	Medium
Enhancements (old freight values of time)	Low

DfT is currently updating road freight values of travel time, which are expected to enter TAG guidance in May 2026. For transparency, value for money assessment using both the existing and updated values have been included.

Overall, the value for money of the enhancement portfolio has been assessed as offering ‘medium’ value for money for the schemes set out in the final RIS publication, including Lower Thames Crossing, when using the updated freight values of time expected to be incorporated into TAG in May 2026.

Assessment of national programmes and designated funds

National programmes are funding streams that support safety and environmental legislative requirements and wider government objectives.

These programmes provide a clear line of sight between funding and outcomes and are a key part of National Highways’ portfolio, enabling the delivery of legal and mandatory requirements.

Designated Funds are ring-fenced funds used to deliver activities beyond National Highways’ core role as a road operator. These funds focus on specific themes and activities, including those that enhance the experience of users and communities on or near the network. RIS3 will continue to provide funding for 4 designated funds:

• safety
• customer and communities
• innovation and research
• environment

National programmes have been assessed using a range of analytical approaches, including analysis of historical data, benchmarking against the previous road period and appraisal of new route treatments, which form part of the Safety National Programme.

Designated funds have been assessed primarily using historical evidence from previous RIS periods to understand their potential impact.

In addition, logic maps alongside objective impact analysis have been used to assess how these lines align to RIS3 strategic objectives and performance monitoring targets, supporting effective decision-making.

Table 12: VfM assessments of national programme and designated fund spending lines

Major RIS3 spending line	VfM assessment
National programmes (including small schemes)	High
Designated funds	High

Overall, both national programmes and designated funds have been assessed as offering ‘high’ value for money, based on historical quantitative evidence. For example, safety schemes delivered through designated funds during RIS2 prevented around 2 killed or seriously injured casualties per £1 million of PVC.

Assessment of digital and corporate services

Digital includes technologies that enable National Highways to operate the network, connect to roadside technology, and support corporate functions, such as software and devices used by staff.

Corporate Services are enabling services to allow National Highways to deliver its strategic objectives, covering activities ranging from directorate costs to estate costs.

Digital funding has been assessed through a review of previous business cases to ascertain the value for money of the relevant funding lines.

Table 13: VfM assessments of digital and corporate services spending lines

Major RIS3 spending line	VfM assessment
Digital and corporate services	Economically positive

Assessment of environmental and distributional impacts

In addition to the business case, which considers environmental and distributional impacts in line with TAG guidance, analysis has also helped to inform the assessment of the impacts of RIS3 on the environment and on equality issues.

Environmental impacts

Detailed greenhouse gas emissions have been calculated, including tailpipe from enhancements, and other non-tailpipe emissions. Tailpipe emissions were estimated using outputs from National Highways’ regional traffic models, drawing on traffic volumes and speeds. Non tailpipe emissions were assessed using whole life carbon and cost data for relevant projects, including renewals and major construction works.

The impacts of climate change have also been considered in line with the latest Green Book update, which recommends assessing scenarios based on both 2°C and 4°C temperature increases for projects extending beyond 2040.

The implications of climate change for the overall value for money of the RIS3 portfolio are expected to be mixed. Maintenance and renewals may show positive value for money impacts because of increased climate resilience benefits compared with a do-nothing approach. In contrast, committed enhancements may see negative value for money impacts under higher climate scenarios due to the need for earlier and more frequent maintenance.

In addition, impacts on noise, air quality, water quality, landscape and biodiversity have been estimated either quantitatively or qualitatively for committed enhancement schemes.

Distributional impacts

Distributional impacts have been considered for committed enhancement schemes, including impacts related to noise, safety, air quality, affordability and severance, analysed by income quintile.

An assessment of the impacts of RIS3 on equality issues was conducted for RIS3 looking at the groups affected by usage and proximity to the SRN drawing upon evidence such as All Change? surveys and potential mitigations from, for example, designated funds.

As individual enhancement schemes progress through the business case process, each will be supported by its own environmental and equalities assessment.

Next steps on developing the analysis for the RIS3 package

How the RIS3 analysis will develop

The announcement of the principal elements included in RIS3 represents a step into the process of scheme delivery. In the case of enhancement schemes, further work needs to be undertaken for option design before the final decision on whether to build is made, following presentation of the full business case.

Key decision points occur at specific stages of scheme development (for example, strategic outline business case, outline business case and full business case). At each stage, earlier decisions on whether to progress the scheme are revisited and updated to reflect the latest information on:

• the degree to which strategic objectives are met
• costs and benefits
• affordability
• deliverability
• risk

Therefore, analysis will continue to play a key role in supporting decisions.

Over time the analysis for each scheme is refined to improve understanding of VfM.

Cost information is refined by, for example, gathering further information on local conditions and consulting the market.

Analysis of benefits is updated and further developed to reflect the scheme options more accurately. As options are narrowed down, more granular analysis can be undertaken, allowing for improved modelling. More impacts can be monetised and better-defined routes allow for the improvement of the analysis of environmental impacts. This improved analysis feeds into decision-making, which more accurately reflects the impacts of schemes.

Other elements of analysis across different funding streams will also continue during RP3.

Monitoring and evaluating performance

The performance specification plays a key role in ensuring that National Highways delivers the outcomes set out in RIS3. Details on how National Highways plans to deliver the different outcomes set in the performance specification will be included in its delivery plan. Additionally, the ORR holds National Highways to account for compliance with the RIS. Performance metrics will also be investigated and, where appropriate, developed for inclusion in RIS4.

National Highways will publish a performance framework improvement plan alongside the delivery plan for the third road period and deliver the actions and milestones within it. National Highways is also set to provide progress updates to the department and ORR as annual delivery plan updates. Moreover, the collection and the publication of information on the performance of the SRN both from the performance specification and as part of our regular statistical data collection exercises will continue in RIS3.

National Highways has also committed to improve the data, information and cost estimations that underpin decision-making around renewals. This includes the improvement of renewals reporting and forecasting, asset data to understand asset risks, the development and testing of asset health indicator measures and the improvement of cost estimations.

Alongside this, the evaluation approach for RIS3 will continue to be developed in collaboration with National Highways and in line with the DfT evaluation strategy and programme, which includes a commitment to evaluate all important programmes with an aim to improving quality and consistency across its evidence base. This will involve:

• post opening project evaluations (POPE) of major schemes at intervals after opening, assessing whether the scheme’s objectives have been achieved, estimating the outturn VfM and comparing the observed benefits realised with those projected during the project appraisal
• developing and improving evaluation plans for non-major projects, including operations, maintenance and renewals as well as other investments

Transport Focus will also continue to conduct its research during RP3 to understand how well the SRN serves the needs of all users. This is done primarily through its Strategic Roads User Survey, which gets feedback from a representative sample of more than 9,000 road users each year on their most recent journey on the SRN, and the Logistics and Coach Manager Satisfaction Survey, providing granular data to inform the department and National Highways’ actions to improve the experience of the SRN for these users.

Engaging with the public

We will continue to engage with the public during the third road period, allowing for the implementation of stakeholder expertise and input for any concerns to be addressed and dealt with.

Finally, as the next RIS is developed, we will continue to consult widely with stakeholders on analysis, receiving your perspectives on how we can develop. This will continue the process of improving our analytical approach to better inform investment decisions.

Glossary

BCR

Benefit cost ratio.

Delivery plan

This sets out how and when National Highways will deliver the activities in its business plan. It is structured around activities, which are then linked to performance outcomes.

Freight values of time

The monetary value placed by businesses on changes in freight journey time used to transport goods, used to assess the benefits of transport improvements.

Green Book

HM Treasury’s appraisal guidance.

Interim settlement

Period between RP2 and RP3, covering from the 1 April 2025 to 31 March 2026.

Investment plan

This sets out the government’s expenditure priorities for RIS3.

KPI

Key performance indicator.

NPV

Net present value.

OIA

Objective impact analysis.

OMR

Operations, maintenance and renewals.

ORR

Office of Rail and Road.

Performance specification

Setting out the required levels of performance that National Highways is expected to meet across its network during RP3.

PI

Performance indicator.

POPE

Post opening project evaluations – assessing whether the scheme’s objectives have been achieved through evaluation post opening.

PVC

Present value of costs.

RIS

Road Investment Strategy – government’s statement of its long-term vision for strategic roads, what it expects National Highways to deliver in the next road period, and the funding it will make available for that purpose.

RP

Road period – the period during which a RIS applies. RP3 will run from 1 April 2026 to 31 March 2031.

SBP

Strategic business plan – sets out National Highway’s strategic direction based on the vision and objectives in RIS3, and explains the performance outcomes planned to be delivered during RP3.

SoFA

Statement of funds available – this sets out the resources available to National Highways during RP3.

SRN

Strategic road network – the motorways and main ‘A’ roads managed by National Highways.

TAG

Department for Transport’s transport analysis guidance.

VfM

Value for money.

Vision

Setting out high-level, long-term objectives which National Highways must work toward.

1. VfM is assessed using DfT’s value for money framework ↩

2. Including Lower Thames Crossing (LTC). LTC analysis is in development and remains subject to change. Using updated road freight values. ↩

3. No relevant or appropriate metrics were identified for the objectives ‘Managing and planning the SRN for the future’ and ‘A technology enabled network’. ↩

4. Other publications include: Strategic objectives for England’s motorways and major ‘A’ roads, 2025-30: road users, Putting users at the heart of Road Investment Strategy 3 and Shaping the future of England’s strategic roads: Transport Focus consultation response. ↩

5. Excluding ring-fenced funding for inward investment projects and LTC ↩