Pathways to Work: Evidence pack: Chapter 2 reforming the structure

Question 1

1.  Views on health condition/disability and finding work

Accepted Answer

People aged 16 to 64 by reasons for inactivity (seasonally adjusted)

Source: Work aspirations and support needs of health and disability customers: Interim findings report - GOV.UK published February 2025 .

The chart shows the views of health and disability benefit customers on finding work. This includes people claiming PIP, ESA and UC health.

The work aspirations interim report, published in February 2025, explored the employment aspirations, barriers to work and support needs of health and disability customers (which includes customers claiming PIP, ESA or are on the UC health Journey). It is based on 3,401 survey findings and 61 qualitative interviews (roughly two thirds of the total number of interviews).

The question involved asking participants if they agreed with a set of statements. The chart shows the percentage of customers who agreed or strongly agreed with each statement. Those who responded “not applicable” to this question are not included in this chart.

The top barrier identified to finding work by customers was finding it difficult to travel to work with their health condition, with 76% agreeing or strongly agreeing with this statement. 60% were also worried that DWP will make them look for work they were not suitable for if they asked for help.

Half (50%) of customers who responded to the survey said their ability to work is dependent on receiving treatment for their health condition, and they were worried they would not get their benefits back if they tried paid employment and it didn’t work out.

A smaller proportion had family or caring responsibilities that make working difficult (28%), and 26% thought the adaptations they would need to be able to work were too expensive to be an option.

Notes:

1) All health and disability claimants excluding N/A responses (2,234 respondents).

Question 2

2.  Views on health condition/disability and finding work, by benefit

Accepted Answer

	Total	NS/ESA WRA	NS/ESA SG	UC LCW	UC LCWRA	UC Pre- WCA	PIP
I’m worried people won’t employ me because of my age	41%	47%	48%	35%	39%	36%	38%
I may find it difficult to travel to work with my health condition	76%	74%	78%	71%	76%	69%	76%
I have family or caring responsibilities that make working difficult	28%	26%	21%	38%	29%	31%	31%
I am worried that I wouldn’t get my benefits back if I try paid employment and then it doesn’t work out	50%	44%	57%	50%	52%	43%	37%
My ability to work is dependent on receiving health treatment	50%	30%	56%	46%	50%	51%	45%
The adaptations I would need to be able to work are too expensive to be an option	26%	17%	35%	24%	26%	17%	21%

Source: Work aspirations and support needs of health and disability customers: Interim findings report - GOV.UK published February 2025.

Notes:

1) Results from claimants in the NS/ESA Assessment Phase were suppressed to prevent disclosure.

2) All health and disability claimants excluding N/A responses (2,234 respondents).

Question 3

3.  UC Health Claimants in work

Accepted Answer

Percentage of UC Health population in work alongside claiming for UC Health

Source: administrative data held on DWP computer systems with encrypted personal identifiers

The chart presents the portion of the UC Health caseload population across Limited Capability for Work and Limited Capability for Work and Work-related Activity groups in work alongside claiming for UC Health.

The % rates for claimants from the Limited Capability for Work group while larger than those from the Limited Capability for Work and Work-related Activity group, correspond to a smaller group of UC Health claimants. Meanwhile, the % rates for claimants from the Limited Capability for Work and Work-related Activity group, although smaller, correspond to the biggest group of UC Health claimants.

Notes:

1) The UC Health claimants in work are obtained using administrative data held on DWP computer systems with encrypted personal identifiers.

2) The chart includes UC Health claimants within the Limited Capability for Work and Work-related Activities and the Limited Capability for Work groups with an ‘in-work’ flag, without accounting for work sustenance.

3) As set out in the Decomposition of growth in the number of claimants of Universal Credit with Limited Capability for Work and Work-Related Activity, or in the Employment and Support Allowance Support Group - GOV.UK analysis the scope of the UC Health caseload reflects a wider population than would be in the ESA caseloads historically. Therefore, caution should be exercised when interpreting UC Health alone relative to the wider benefit recipient population. The composition of the caseload over time therefore reflects the maturity of Universal Credit.

4) UC data can be revised after its initial release, so figures for more recent periods may change in future - though this is not expected to be material.

Question 4

4.  Underlying Eligibility for Universal Credit

Accepted Answer

Estimated % of those claiming JSA or ESA contributory, with underlying UC entitlement)

Benefit	Estimated % with underlying UC entitlement (2028/2029)
JSA contributory	60%
ESA contributory	85%

Source: Policy Simulation Model consistent with Spring 2025 pre-measures forecasts.

Methodology:

We use the PSM to:

identify the forecast of JSA and ESA contributory claimants in payment in 2028/2029
split claimants by whether they are JSA/ESA contributory only or “dual” JSA/ESA contributory and UC claimants
recalculate their UC entitlement if we removed their contributory benefit
for those who are not also projected to claim UC used the PSM to estimate whether they would or would not be entitled to UC if their contributory benefit was removed

Caveats:

The PSM is based on survey data from a limited number of cases (sample sizes noted above), and there is some uncertainty about the reliability of savings/capital figures, which could affect these UC entitlement estimates.
These are estimates of entitlement if contributory benefits were removed. In reality not all entitled claimants would necessarily claim UC.
Estimates are rounded to reflect the uncertainty.
The modelling does not include any policies announced at Spring Statement 2025 or any of the other Green Paper proposals. This means the figures could change once these are factored in.

Notes:

1) Note: the analysis for the ESA caseload is based on a sample of around 800 FRS respondents and JSA around 60 FRS respondents.

2) Proportions are rounded to the nearest 5%.

Question 5

5.  Volume of WCA Reassessments

Accepted Answer

Volume of WCA Reassessments, by calendar year

Source: Source(s): Figures taken from ESA WCA by Date of Decision and UC WCA Decision Outcomes tables on Stat-Xplore

Link to Stat-Xplore website

The chart and table shows the volume of WCA Reassessments fell from 611,000 in 2019 to 118,000 in 2023.

Notes:

1) ESA and UC Work Capability Assessment statistics are published on Stat-Xplore and quarterly/monthly.

2) The volumes in the table above are based on the sum of total decisions made for ESA and UC Health reassessments over the calendar year.

3) UC WCA decisions data is only available from April 2019 onwards.

Question 6

6.  People receiving a PIP award

Accepted Answer

Number of PIP claimants receiving an award by month of decision

Source: Figures derived from DWP administrative data

Since the pandemic, the number of PIP awards has more than doubled – up from approximately 13,000 a month in late 2019 to around 34,000 a month in the years between 2022 and 2024.

The chart shows the number of normal rules claimants being awarded PIP increased the most between mid-2021 and mid-2023. Since then, they have stabilised at their new higher level.

Notes:

1) Data includes new claims to PIP only made under normal rules and covers initial decision, prior to any reconsideration or appeal activity.

2) Awards based on the month of decision are affected by operational capacity.

Question 7

7.  People receiving a PIP award with a primary medical condition categorised as Anxiety and Depression

Accepted Answer

Monthly average of new Personal Independence Payment awards where the main condition was anxiety or depression, by year and condition

Source: Figures taken from the PIP Clearances dataset on DWP Stat-Xplore website

Notes:

1) Data retrieved from Stat-Xplore on 19th March 2025.

2) Statistical disclosure control has been applied to this table to avoid the release of confidential data. Totals may not sum due to the disclosure control applied.

3) Averages calculated using figures which have had statistical disclosure control applied to them.

4) From late March 2020 onwards, disruption due to COVID-19 affected volumes of clearances for all activities - Assessment Providers switched to paper based and telephony assessments rather than face to face assessments, and in the first few weeks of the COVID-19 pandemic efforts were made to clear residual claims in the system from before emergency measures were put in place, giving rise to an initial spike in clearance volumes. During the quarter ending July 2020, the effects of the disruption due to COVID-19 have reduced in some areas though they continue in many parts of the process. Operational measures implemented in late March in response to COVID-19 included the suspension of routine re- assessments of disability benefits i.e. DLA to PIP reassessments. Some DLA reassessment activity restarted in late July.

5) Data for PIP awards in England and Wales only.

Question 8

8.  People receiving a PIP award by selected age groups and condition

Accepted Answer

Tables 2.8a to 2.8c show the number of awards for different age groups by primary condition, contrasting the youngest PIP claimants with those approaching pension age. Though not shown in these tables, in most cases there is a relatively linear trend seen in condition mix for the age groups in between.

Please refer to the accompanying Excel tables.

Source: Stat-Xplore, PIP clearances dataset, England and Wales

Question 9

9.  Daily Living Point Scores For PIP Claimants by age

Accepted Answer

Daily Living Points Scored by Age

Source: Figures derived from DWP administrative data

This chart shows the proportion of each age group that score within each Daily Living points band. There is a concentration of points awarded at the standard rate threshold, particularly for older claimants.

The PIP caseload shows stepwise progression in points distribution with age group, with larger proportions of younger groups (notably 16 to 19-year-olds) obtaining higher scores (peak at 16 to 20 points). This tendency decreases with age, with older groups having highest proportions scoring 8 to 9 points.

Despite these differences the proportions at the Enhanced award threshold (12 to 13 points) are fairly similar across different age groups.

Notes:

1) Figures are based on the PIP caseload at end January 2025. As such, it does not include those claimants who were not awarded either component of PIP at new claim or award review stage.

2) Data includes working age claimants only.

3) Data only includes claimants living in regions under DWP policy ownership (England, Wales and Abroad).

4) Data includes normal rules claimants only and excludes special rules for end of life (SREL) claimants as they typically receive maximum or very high scores.

5) Note that some claimants on the PIP caseload may receive only one award element from Daily Living or Mobility.

6) Percentages shown are of that age group who scored within each points band as of their latest decision (whether initial decision, decision at mandatory reconsideration or appeal, or award review).

7) Data may show minor differences to published award level information and other tables in this pack due to missing or poor-quality point score data for a small number of claims.

8) Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Question 10

10.   Mobility Point Scores For PIP Claimants by Age

Accepted Answer

Mobility Points Scored by Age Group of Claimant

Source: Figures derived from DWP administrative data

This chart shows the proportion of each age group that score within each Mobility points band. Mobility scores are much more concentrated than those for Daily Living.

In all age groups, a score of 12 Mobility points (Enhanced award) is the most common. Scoring 10 points is the second most frequent outcome, much more so than 8 points (both Standard award). A Nil award (0 or 4 points) is more likely for Mobility than for Daily Living award.

The 16 to 19 age group shows the largest proportion by far scoring 12 points (Enhanced award), with 60% of claimants in this age group scoring 12 points. Older age groups show slightly higher proportions scoring 8 points (Standard award) but also 4 points (Nil award).

Notes:

1) Figures are based on the PIP caseload at end January 2025. As such, it does not include those claimants who were not awarded either component of PIP at new claim or award review stage.

2) Data includes working age claimants only.

3) Data only includes claimants living in regions under DWP policy ownership (England, Wales and Abroad).

4) Data includes normal rules claimants only and excludes special rules for end of life (SREL) claimants as they typically receive maximum or very high scores.

5) Note that some claimants on the PIP caseload may receive only one award element from Daily Living or Mobility.

6) Percentages shown are of that age group who scored within each points band as of their latest decision (whether initial decision, decision at mandatory reconsideration or appeal, or award review).

7) Data may show minor differences to published award level information and other tables in this pack due to missing or poor quality point score data for a small number of claims.

8) Figures may not sum due to rounding.

Question 11

11.  Daily Living Point Scores by Primary Health Condition of Claimant

Accepted Answer

Daily Living points scored by primary health condition of claimant

Source: Figures derived from DWP administrative data

This chart shows the proportion of claimants with the 5 most common conditions on the PIP caseload that score within each Daily Living points band, along with the proportion of the total caseload in each points band. Points awarded vary significantly by primary health condition.

The Arthritis and Back Pain health condition categories both show most common scores of 8 to 9 (Standard award), with the proportion scoring 12 points or more (Enhanced award) lower than the proportion for the overall caseload.

Scores in the Anxiety and Depression category are most often in the range spanning Standard and Enhanced awards (10 to 13 points). The Autistic Spectrum Disorder category shows a tendency towards higher scores with largest proportions scoring 12 to 25 points, while scores in the Learning Disabilities category tend towards higher again, with the proportion scoring 21 points or more significantly above the proportion of the overall caseload.

Notes:

1) Figures are based on the PIP caseload at end January 2025. As such, it does not include those claimants who were not awarded either component of PIP at new claim or award review stage.

2) Data includes working age claimants only.

3) Data only includes claimants living in regions under DWP policy ownership (England, Wales and Abroad).

4) Data includes normal rules claimants only and excludes special rules for end of life (SREL) claimants as they typically receive maximum or very high scores.

5) Note that some claimants on the PIP caseload may receive only one award element from Daily Living or Mobility.

6) Percentages shown are of that age group who scored within each points band as of their latest decision (whether initial decision, decision at mandatory reconsideration or appeal, or award review).

7) Data may show minor differences to published award level information and other tables in this pack due to missing or poor quality point score data for a small number of claims.

8) Health condition category is based on primary health condition as recorded on the PIP Computer System at time of latest assessment. Many claimants have multiple health conditions, but only primary condition is available for analysis.

9) Only the 18 disabling condition groups which make up the highest proportions of the PIP caseload are displayed in this table.

10) Other disabling condition groups which cover smaller proportions of the PIP/DLA caseload are covered in the “Other Conditions” category. This includes Visual Diseases, Other General Musculoskeletal Diseases, Endocrine Diseases, Hearing Disorders, Gastrointestinal Diseases, Genitourinary Diseases, Skin Diseases, Autoimmune Diseases (Connective Tissue Disorders), Infectious Diseases, Diseases of the Liver, Gallbladder or Biliary Tract, Haematological Diseases, Metabolic Diseases, Multisystem and Extremes of Age, Diseases of the Immune System, Terminally Ill (DLA Only), Other (DLA Only).

Question 12

12.  Mobility Point Scores by Primary Health Condition of Claimant

Accepted Answer

Mobility points scored by primary health condition of claimant

Source: Figures derived from DWP administrative data

This chart shows the proportion of claimants with the 5 most common conditions on the PIP caseload that score within each Mobility points band, along with the proportion of the total caseload in each points band.

The Anxiety and Depression health condition category most often scores 0 or 10 points, showing claimants with this health condition are more likely to get a Standard award or Nil award compared to the caseload as a whole.

More than 50% of scores in the Autistic Spectrum Disorders and Learning Disabilities categories are 12 points or more, with claimants in these categories more likely to get an Enhanced award compared to the caseload as a whole.

Conversely, around 70% of scores in the Arthritis and Back Pain categories score 10 points or fewer (Standard award or Nil award).