Defence opportunities and challenges
Climate change and its effects on defence; exacerbating current issues while also creating new ones.
Violent conflict mainly occurs where unaddressed regional pressures (for example, sharp population growth, resource scarcity and weak states) overlap with global challenges (such as, climate change, pollution and inequality).
Defence has an impact on climate change and climate change has an impact on defence. And the effects of climate change are not limited to temperatures rising; there are a number of direct and indirect effects and consequences from climate change. Defence’s interest lies with the impact they have on defence and the operating environment, but also how defence contributes to these effects.
We group these effects into 3 tiers: primary, secondary and tertiary effects, based on how increasingly indirect these effects are.
Change in temperature patterns
The average global temperature has changed across both land and oceans in most areas. However, the rate of change is not the same everywhere. Generally, the land has warmed more than oceans, and the Arctic has warmed twice as fast as the rest of the world.
Change in water distribution
Increasing temperature is causing sea-level rise, due to thermal expansion of oceanic and land ice (including glaciers and permafrost) as it melts. Changing rates and amounts of melting sea ice could slow ocean currents that regulate global climate.
Change in weather conditions
A warming atmosphere will lead to heavier rainfall events in many places due to increases in the air’s capacity to hold moisture. At the same time drought could occur in many tropical and subtropical land areas due to reduced precipitation. These short-term and regional variations are likely to become more extreme and enduring.
Warming seas can cause an increase in intensity of tropical storms. When coupled with sea level rise, storm surges are likely to increase.
Desertification and wildfire
Desertification (the process of fertile land transforming into desert) is accelerating in Africa, with Australia and the Middle East also being critically vulnerable. This will lead to an increased risk of sand and dust storms and change the global distribution of land fertility. Extreme and long-term elevated temperatures leading to drier conditions could lead to an increased risk of wild fires.
Land and sea access routes
The melting Arctic will expose new shipping routes on a seasonal then permanent basis. However, increased iceberg formation at both poles presents an additional risk to shipping. Lack of rainfall has already affected river transport with seasonal low water levels in the Panama Canal and River Rhine reducing shipping traffic.
Flooding
Increased intensity and frequency of rainfall will increase the risk of inland flooding with potential for landslides. Rising sea levels increase the risk of flooding in coastal areas and can cause soil erosion.
Accessibility and availability of natural resources
Changing environmental and political landscapes, plus new resource demands, will alter physical and geopolitical access to resources, including minerals, rare earth elements and fossil fuel deposits.
Availability of fresh water
Freshwater storage, including glaciers, permafrost and snow has dropped while salinisation of freshwater aquifers from seawater intrusion has increased, leading to a reduction in the availability of freshwater. Access to clean water may be impacted further due to pollution from sediments, pathogens and pesticides caused by higher water temperatures and more frequent floods.
Distribution of flora and fauna
Altered climates are driving increasingly rapid changes in the distribution of flora and fauna across our planet. Shifting distributions of animal and human populations driven by climate change will bring species into increased contact. Shifting insect and animal populations are changing terrestrial landscapes, agricultural production and harvests.
The consequences of the primary and secondary climate change effects will affect defence’s ability to operate and to influence threats, thereby altering where and how defence needs to act.
Damage to infrastructure
Increased severity, frequency and distribution of floods, droughts and extreme weather will increase the risk of damage to infrastructure including buildings, transportation networks, energy provision, information technology and communications.
Migration
Climate change could result in many people migrating within their countries, mainly being pulled to urban areas, and cross-border migration. This is due to effects including desertification, flooding and access to freshwater and other essential resources. This migration has potential to exacerbate socio-economic pressures and contribute to the risk of conflict at all levels.
Competition for food and water
Geographic changes to productivity of crops, animal and fish stocks will impact livelihoods, raise prices and increase risk of famine in some areas. Where there are already tensions over water and food availability, climatic pressures will exacerbate the potential for and intensity of conflict.
Increased risk to health
People may be exposed to either new diseases or diseases new to their area due to:
- increased contact between animal and human populations increasing the potential for zoonotic diseases to cross between species
- equatorial diseases spreading pole-wards
- melting permafrost potentially releasing trapped viruses and bacteria.
These will put stresses on healthcare systems and could include infectious agents humans are not prepared for, or do not have immunity to.
Extreme temperature and weather will increase the risk to human health through physical harm, psychological harm and loss of life through injury.
Increased competition for and control of land and sea
Changes to land and sea accessibility will result in shifts in global trade routes, and potential increase in competition to secure and access such routes.
Increased competition for natural resource deposits
Changes to the accessibility and demand for natural resources may result in increases to stockpiling and deliberately limiting the supplies of scarce resources for geopolitical or financial gain. New alliances may be forged to ensure secure access to resources.
Preparing UK defence for climate change will help the UK maintain, and potentially improve, operational effectiveness, provide new economic opportunities and aid the UK to reach netzZero by 2050.
Preparing the UK to operate in a climatically changed world opens up new opportunities and challenges for UK defence.
Defence’s impact relies on the following:
- UK defence’s role in global leadership of climate change
- reducing defence impact on climate change
- adapting defence to climate change
- enablers to allow defence to address climate change
The next sections explore each of these roles for defence in more detail.