Official Statistics

Commercial and industrial waste arisings methodology revisions for England

Updated 23 July 2025

UK estimates for waste generation from commercial and industrial (C&I) sectors are compiled in accordance with EU Waste Statistics Regulation (WStatR) reporting requirements. Data sources and detailed approaches may differ slightly between UK countries, but overarching principles will be consistent. For the purpose of WStatR, C&I is defined as a specific collection of economic activities described by NACE (“statistical classification of economic activities in the European Community”). Those considered to be C&I are C, D, E36, E37 and E39 (excluding sewage sludge) and G to U (excluding G46.7.7).

Following the discontinuation of historical Defra C&I sector surveys after 2009, Defra commissioned a project to provide a new methodology to calculate waste generated by C&I in England, in order to continue to meet reporting requirements. This produced the ‘Reconcile’ methodology, along with estimates for 2010 and 2012 specifically formatted to contribute to the Waste Statistics Regulation return and to provide a repeatable methodology. The project report (Estimates of Commercial and Industrial Waste Generation in England in 2012 - EV0804) was published in August 2014.

In the original process of repeating the ‘Reconcile’ methodology using Defra systems, several areas of double-counting were identified, and so the methodology was reworked to correct for these, resulting in a substantial reduction to the C&I arisings figures for England in the December 2016 publication of UK Statistics on Waste. Concerns raised by industry following these data revisions identified outstanding issues with the methodology.

Defra took this opportunity to develop a further modified version alongside industry experts, which was felt to improve the transparency of the methodology and better reflect current waste management processes. While the original ‘Reconcile’ methodology had reliable estimates for landfilled and incinerated waste and organic recycling, the estimates for dry recycling relied on multiple assumptions regarding intermediate treatment sites (such as material recovery facilities) and tonnages processed under exemption, which result in considerable uncertainty. To improve the transparency of this aspect of the methodology, we have sourced alternative “end-point” data sources for key dry recyclates and removed the previous exemptions-based methodology.

The review also called into question one of the fundamental assumptions of the ‘Reconcile’ methodology to exclude waste input to transfer stations, in addition to secondary waste (essentially waste generated from the treatment of waste), on the basis that it would be captured at other points in the waste treatment chain. Upon detailed investigation, it was discovered that large tonnages (for example, around 7 million tonnes in 2012) of waste enter transfer stations as ‘mixed municipal waste’ (European Waste Catalogue (EWC) code 20 03 01; that is, “black bag waste”) but are re-categorised as secondary waste (largely EWC code 19 12 12) before being sent on for treatment or disposal. This is due to increased sorting and early-stage treatment at transfer stations, coinciding with an increase in separation of refuse derived fuel for export. We have therefore made additional improvements to capture these missed tonnages, which were not accounted for in the original methodology.

Note: The new methodology makes no attempt to estimate waste processed under exemption that is not captured within the recycling data at end-point. Therefore, figures may underestimate the “true” tonnages of C&I waste arisings, but are the best estimate we can produce from the available data.

A key presentational change will also be made to the C&I waste arisings figures. Eurostat require a wet-to-dry adjustment to be made to the submitted figures for sludges, which has a substantial impact on the total C&I figures because they include sewage and water treatment, and results in a reduction of several million tonnes a year. From consultation with industry, it was clear that the non-adjusted figures are of more value to the waste industry and so, while the adjustment will still be required for figures submitted to Eurostat as part of the WStatR return, Defra will from now on publish the non-adjusted figures as the headline C&I waste arisings figures. The Defra published C&I figures also exclude sewage sludge (which is included as dry weight for the purposes of the WStatR return).

The new methodology has been used to generate the 2015 and 2016 figures, as well as to revise the historical estimates and produce consistent estimates for 2011 to complete the time series. This has resulted in an increase in the C&I estimates from the revisions published in December 2016, but lower estimates when compared to the originally published figures. Comparing figures on a like-for-like basis (that is, without the wet-to-dry weight adjustment for sludges) the total C&I arisings estimate for England in 2012 from the original ‘Reconcile’ project was 43.8 million tonnes. This was reduced to around 30 million tonnes (24.2 million tonnes with wet-to-dry adjustment) in December 2016, but has now been revised to 33.9 million tonnes. The 2014 figure was originally calculated as around 25 million tonnes (published as 19.8 million tonnes including wet-to-dry adjustment in December 2016), and has now been revised to 31.7 million tonnes.

Additional minor revisions have been made to figures in the October 2018 release, as a result of developing the methodology to produce the material type breakdown that is required for WStatR. For example, it was necessary to reconcile figures from WasteDataFlow and Waste Data Interrogator at the material type (EWC code) level.

The latest methodology has been developed with considerable input from industry experts and sense-checked against alternative data sources. Defra believe the latest estimates to be the most reliable figures that can be reasonably produced with the currently available data. Full details of the principles applied in the revised methodology are summarised in Table 1 and a summary of the excluded waste codes is presented in Table 2.

Table 1: Summary of the principles applied in the calculation of the C&I estimates, including data sources

Endpoint	Data source	Details and assumptions
Incineration	Environment Agency incineration data	Total incinerated excluding EWC chapters 01 (mining), 02 01* (agriculture, forestry or fishing), 17 (construction) and 19 (secondary waste).
Refuse derived fuel exports	Environment Agency data	Originated as EWC code 20 03 01 (“mixed municipal waste”).
Landfill	Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator	Tonnes received at facilities with origin region in England, excluding EWC chapters 01, 02 01*, 17 and 19. Assumes that Waste Data Interrogator captures all tonnages at permitted sites (although in reality not all sites submit returns). Assumes that double-counting between sites is avoided by excluding transfer stations, treatment facilities not listed in the first column and EWC chapter 19 waste. Tonnes removed from these excluded sites with destination region outside England are also included, as these would otherwise not be captured.
Recycling: compost and metal recycling sites	Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator	Tonnes received at facilities with origin region in England, excluding EWC chapters 01, 02 01*, 17 and 19. Assumes that Waste Data Interrogator captures all tonnages at permitted sites (although in reality not all sites submit returns). Assumes that double-counting between sites is avoided by excluding transfer stations, treatment facilities not listed in the first column and EWC chapter 19 waste. Tonnes removed from these excluded sites with destination region outside England are also included, as these would otherwise not be captured.
Treatment: biological, anaerobic digestion chemical and physical-chemical	Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator	Tonnes received at facilities with origin region in England, excluding EWC chapters 01, 02 01*, 17 and 19. Assumes that Waste Data Interrogator captures all tonnages at permitted sites (although in reality not all sites submit returns). Assumes that double-counting between sites is avoided by excluding transfer stations, treatment facilities not listed in the first column and EWC chapter 19 waste. Tonnes removed from these excluded sites with destination region outside England are also included, as these would otherwise not be captured.
Exports from transfer stations and excluded (non-endpoint) treatment sites	Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator	Tonnes received at facilities with origin region in England, excluding EWC chapters 01, 02 01*, 17 and 19. Assumes that Waste Data Interrogator captures all tonnages at permitted sites (although in reality not all sites submit returns). Assumes that double-counting between sites is avoided by excluding transfer stations, treatment facilities not listed in the first column and EWC chapter 19 waste. Tonnes removed from these excluded sites with destination region outside England are also included, as these would otherwise not be captured.
EWC codes 19 12 10, 19 12 11* and 19 12 12 received at landfill or incinerated.	1) Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator 2) Environment Agency incineration data	Captures mixed municipal waste (EWC code 20 03 01) that is sorted within transfer sites and re-categorised as secondary waste (EWC chapter 19) when it leaves. (Not captured in the Waste Data Interrogator data above, which excludes both transfer stations and EWC chapter 19 waste). This occurs largely due to sorting of EWC code 20 03 01 for refuse derived fuel, “producing” EWC code 19 12 10 (refuse derived fuel), plus associated sorting residues (EWC codes 19 12 11* and 19 12 12). These waste codes have therefore been included at landfill and incineration. EWC code 19 12 12 tonnages are reduced by 20% as interrogation of the Waste Data Interrogator data at site level indicated that approximately 20% of EWC code 19 12 12 tonnages originates from construction waste (EWC chapter 17) rather than municipal waste.
Paper and board recycling	1) Trade association data 2) HM Revenue and Customs export data 3) Defra Statistics	Assumes 88% UK paper and board waste is generated in England (based on percentage processed in England paper mills). Assigned to EWC codes 15 01 01 (paper and cardboard packaging) and 20 01 02 (paper and cardboard) based on trade association insight.
Glass recycling	Environment Agency National Packaging Waste Database returns and historical accreditation reports	Assumes 88% glass recycling recycling is packaging (based on accreditation reports for 2010 to 2013). These factors are applied to National Packaging Waste Database returns data (for reprocessors and exporters) and tonnages assigned to EWC chapters 15 and 20 accordingly. Assumes percentage packaging waste received is the same for reprocessors and exporters, and that the percentage glass recycling that is packaging has not been altered by the introduction of separate “glass re-melt” and “glass other” categories from 2013 onwards.
Plastic recycling	Environment Agency National Packaging Waste Database returns and historical accreditation reports	Assumes 71 % plastic recycling is packaging (based on accreditation reports for 2010 to 2013). These factors are applied to National Packaging Waste Database returns data (for reprocessors and exporters) and tonnages assigned to EWC chapters 15 and 20 accordingly. Assumes percentage packaging waste received is the same for reprocessors and exporters.
Metal recycling	Environment Agency National Packaging Waste Database (reprocessor returns only)	Captures metal packaging received at reprocessors in England, which is assumed not to overlap with waste received at metal recycling sites. This is consistent with Environment Agency methodology for the Waste Statistics Regulation return.
Wood recycling	1) Wood Recycling Association 2) Anthesis report	Assumes total “municipal” wood arisings have been constant from 2010 to 2016, in the absence of alternative data. (Tolvik (2011) projected little change in wood waste arisings 2010 to 2015[1]). Uses managed tonnage of recycling plus export from Wood Recyclers Association and assumes that 84% of this is generated in England and that 58% is commercial and industrial waste or local authority collected waste (based on 2014/15 estimates produced by Anthesis). Tonnages assigned to EWC codes 15 01 03 and 20 01 38 based on industry insight.

Notes on Table 1:

An * denotes a hazardous waste code

[1] Wood waste: A short review of recent research

Table 2: Summary of the waste codes excluded from the C&I estimates, including data sources

Endpoint or waste stream	Data source	Details and assumptions
Treatment sites	Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator	EWC codes 19 12 10, 19 12 11* and 19 12 12 are removed from included Treatment sites, with fate “landfill”, “incineration” or “recovery” to avoid double-counting of EWC chapter 19 waste that is re-coded as a result of sorting at included treatment sites (this happens to large tonnages at biological treatment, for example). Therefore without this deduction, some tonnages of EWC chapter 19 waste received at landfill and incineration, and refuse derived fuel exports, would be double-counting of EWC code 20 03 01 waste received at treatment. Assumes that fate “recovery” is used for refuse derived fuel. As explained above, it is assumed that 20% of ECW code 19 12 12 originates from EWC chapter 17 waste rather than EWC code 20 03 01 and so the tonnage for EWC code 19 12 12 is reduced by 20%.
Metal recycling sites	Environment Agency Waste Data Interrogator	EWC codes 16 01 03, 16 01 04*, 16 01 06, 16 01 17 and 16 01 18 are removed from metal recycling sites, with fate “transfer” or “treatment” to account for specific end-of-life vehicle and metal waste codes, which were assumed by the original Reconcile methodology to be partially double-counted between metal recycling sites.
Waste from households	WasteDataFlow	Residual waste assigned to EWC code 20 03 01 is removed. Recyclates mapped to EWC code based on WasteDataFlow material description are removed. Note: total tonnage subtracted is always smaller than the published waste from household generation for several reasons: 1) End-point rather than generation figures are used from the waste from household data; 2) Some waste types captured in WasteDataFlow may not appear in the Waste Data Interrogator data; 3) Tonnages for a particular waste type may be higher in WasteDataFlow than in Waste Data Interrogator. In this scenario, the commercial and industrial tonnages are set to zero, to avoid negative figures.

Note on Table 2:

An * denotes a hazardous waste code

Defra will continue to work with industry to ensure that C&I estimates remain relevant to the constantly evolving industry. We welcome feedback from users on the methodological changes and data revisions, please contact:

Katherine Merrett
Email: WasteStatistics@Defra.gov.uk