Accredited official statistics

UK regional trade in goods statistics, first quarter, January to March 2025: explanatory notes

Published 11 June 2025

Introduction

HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) is responsible for collecting the UK’s international trade in goods data. They are published as two accredited official statistics series:

• UK overseas trade in goods statistics (OTS)
• UK regional trade in goods statistics (RTS)

The RTS were independently reviewed by the Office for Statistics Regulation in October 2010 with publication of the report in February 2011, download the assessment of compliance report (PDF, 137 KB). They comply with the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics and should be labelled ‘accredited official statistics’. Accredited official statistics are called National Statistics in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007.  

The RTS is published quarterly showing trade at summary product and country level. It is split by UK regions and devolved administrations.

Trade in goods values are in current prices. Values are not adjusted for inflation or global economic events. Therefore, please take caution when making comparisons with historic data.

HMRC released the latest statistics on regional trade in goods in accordance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. This release includes the first provisional estimates for the first quarter, January to March of 2025. It also includes revisions for regional data from 2024.

Aggregated tables are provided in a supporting statistical data set to allow for time series analysis. Users can also create their own customised regional trade data table using the Build a regional trade data table.

Data source changes

From 31 December 2020, the free movement of people, and goods and services between the UK and the European Union (EU) ended. This meant the way HMRC collected trade in goods statistics was revised.

UK to EU exports

Until December 31, 2020, UK export statistics to the EU were collected through the Intrastat survey. This survey required traders to declare the value and volume of commodities exported to EU member states within the relevant month of physical goods movement.  

Starting from 1 January 2021, export statistics for goods moving from GB to EU are compiled from customs export declarations. These declarations follow the requirements of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act. The customs declaration requirements are more complex than the single monthly Intrastat return. It can result in differences between the declaration date and actual movement of the goods out of the country.

The OTS compilation methodology uses the acceptance date of the customs export declaration. This date determines the relevant month of account. This differs to the Intrastat survey, which uses the declared physical movement date.

Intrastat survey returns are still collected for goods exported from Northern Ireland (NI) to the EU. This is under the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol and latterly the Windsor Framework.

Data from GB to EU customs export declarations and NI Intrastat exports are included in the UK to EU export dataset. Due to the changes, there is a break in the time series for published UK to EU export statistics from January 2021. Users should note this change when comparing to previous quarters and years.

UK imports from EU

The Intrastat survey continued to operate in 2021 for all UK (GB and NI) imports (arrivals) from the EU, to mitigate the effects of staged customs controls and to comply with the Northern Ireland Protocol.

Starting from 1 January 2022, Intrastat only applied to goods moving between NI and the EU. This is under the terms of the Northern Ireland Protocol and latterly the Windsor Framework. Statistics on goods moving into GB from the EU are now compiled from customs import declarations.

Therefore, from January 2022, the UK’s goods imports from the EU dataset uses two data sources. GB’s goods imports from the EU are collected via customs declarations. NI’s goods imports from the EU are collected via Intrastat declarations.

In 2021, temporary Staged Customs Controls (SCC) allowed GB importers to defer full customs declarations. This applied to non-controlled EU goods for up to 175 days after goods moved. From 1 January 2022 to 30 January 2024, SCC was only available for use on non-controlled goods imported from Ireland. This may affect the accuracy of trade data for GB imports from Ireland and associated aggregations.

More information on the recent changes to trade in goods statistics can be found on the UK Trade Info website.

Statistical value threshold in customs declarations

Customs declarations with commodity line values below £873 (in value) and 1,000kg (in net mass) are aggregated into ‘low value aggregates’. We do not receive business, product, or partner country information on these movements. As a result, we cannot assign this trade to a UK region, and the value is assigned to the Unallocated-Unknown region. This applies to goods exports from GB to EU countries from 2021, and imports to GB from EU countries from 2022. This is consistent with RTS methods for trade with non-EU countries, which are also sourced from customs declarations. As a result, the value for Unallocated-Unknown will increase for EU flows from the specified dates.

Re-introduction of EU business counts

Due to the recent changes to data sources outlined, as well as changes to the VAT data source, a new method for EU business counts was introduced in the first quarter 2022 publication. It resulted in a break in series from previous RTS EU business counts. EU and total business counts from 2021 onwards are not comparable with RTS business counts published before 2021.

Prior to 2021, EU business counts were compiled from Intrastat declarations, while businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold were captured through VAT data. Businesses trading below the Intrastat threshold made up a small percentage of the total trade value but accounted for most of the businesses trading.

Since January 2021, VAT data changes mean only movements between NI and EU countries are accurately recorded. After EU Exit, trade between GB and EU countries is reported through customs declarations instead of Intrastat. Customs declarations became the main data source for GB exports to EU countries from January 2021. They also became the main source for GB imports from EU countries from January 2022.

Due to these changes, a new time series for EU business counts starts from the first quarter (January to March) of 2021.

EU exporter counts from 2021 onwards include:

• GB exports to EU countries, via customs export declarations
• NI exports to EU countries, collected via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

EU importer counts for 2021 include:

• UK imports from EU countries, collected via Intrastat
• NI imports from EU countries for those below the Intrastat threshold, via VAT data
• additional raw customs import declaration data to better capture GB imports from EU countries
• a caveat that throughout 2021, businesses could defer their EU imports declarations for up to 175 days, this may impact data quality

EU importer counts from 2022 onwards include:

• GB imports from EU countries, via customs import declarations
• NI imports from EU countries, collected via Intrastat (above threshold) and VAT data (below threshold)

Overseas trade in goods statistics

Data mainly comes from customs systems. This includes UK imports from and exports to non-EU countries, and GB imports from and exports to EU countries. The Intrastat survey covers NI imports from and exports to EU countries.  HMRC does not receive information in respect of goods that move wholly within the UK. It also does not cover intangibles and services such as banking or tourism.

The OTS were published on a special trade basis from May 2016 account onwards. This change has been reflected in the RTS from the second quarter 2016 release onwards. All data in this release has been compiled on a special trade basis to allow comparisons across periods to be made. More information on general and special trade systems can be found in the OTS and RTS methodologies.

Updates to 2024 and 2025 trade values as published in the April 2025 OTS on 12 June 2025 have not been applied to this first quarter 2025 (January to March) RTS release due to production lead times.

Trade in non-monetary gold (NMG) is included in OTS data. However, this trade will continue to be excluded from RTS data. This is because most NMG trade would be assigned to the London region, distorting the RTS values. The following reconciliation table (Table A) shows the differences at total trade level between OTS and RTS. It quantifies the elements of OTS that are excluded from RTS.

Table A: RTS and OTS reconciliation table, first quarter, January to March 2025 (value in £ millions)

	EU Exports	Non-EU Exports	EU Imports	Non-EU Imports
OTS total value	43,103.1	79,196.5	78,450.5	87,530.3
RTS total value	42,150.4	46,336.2	76,001.9	69,427.3
Late response estimates	41.4	not applicable	29.9	not applicable
Non-monetary gold	911.3	32,860.4	2,418.7	18,103.0
RTS total plus exclusions	43,103.1	79,196.5	78,450.5	87,530.3

Please note:

• there may be rounding differences between the total shown and the sum of its components
• late response estimates only concern trade between NI and EU countries, and are excluded from RTS trade
• non-monetary gold is excluded from RTS trade
• 2025 data is provisional and subject to update

Source: UK regional trade in goods statistics and UK overseas trade in goods statistics from HM Revenue & Customs

Balance of Payments

The Balance of Payments (BoP) values published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are calculated on a different basis to the OTS. Therefore, adjustments are made when producing BoP which means that the RTS and BoP are not comparable. The ONS website provides an overview of BoP, and is where you can find their detailed monthly UK trade releases.

Methodology

Following an informal public consultation on regional trade in goods statistics (RTS), changes were made from the third quarter 2016 to the methodology and presentation. The main changes were:

• allocating a business’ trade to a region based on their proportion of employees in that region instead of where the location of the Head Office of the business is
• dividing trade that cannot be allocated to a region into ‘Known’ and ‘Unknown’
• for specific energy goods, using data received by HMRC direct from interconnector and rig operators instead of the business doing the trade
• the number of businesses now includes all VAT registered traders instead of just those who are required to make full declarations to HMRC for their EU trade

Please see the re-introduction of EU business counts section for changes to business counts from the first quarter, January to March 2022 release onwards.

RTS data is compiled by merging trade data collected by HMRC with employment data. This is based on the Interdepartmental Business Register (IDBR). A business’ trade is allocated to a region based on the proportion of its employees employed in that region. If a trader is not matched with the IDBR, its trade is matched with ONS postcode data. This helps find the region where the Head Office of the VAT registered business (importer or exporter) is based.

Not all trade can be assigned to one of the 9 English Regions, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Where appropriate, this is referred to in the tables as the ‘Unallocated Trade’, which is split into two groups.

‘Unallocated – Known’ is where we have virtually full details of the trade, but it is not appropriate to allocate it to a region. This includes:

• trade going into or out of the Channel Islands or the Isle of Man
• trade carried out by overseas based traders who have a VAT presence in the UK
• trade carried out by the UK Government
• parcel post trade that is dealt with centrally (trade collected via customs declarations)

‘Unallocated – Unknown’ is where not enough detail is known to allocate trade to a region. This includes:

• trade where business details submitted are invalid
• un-registered businesses (trade collected via customs declarations)
• private individuals (trade collected via customs declarations)
• low value trade (trade collected via customs declarations)

For specific energy goods only, trade is allocated to the region where the goods enter or leave the UK. This is instead of the location and employment of the business doing the trade. This is because HMRC receives details of the trade in these goods directly from grid operators instead of the business. The goods concerned are electrical energy, natural gas in a gaseous state and crude oil exported directly from offshore oil rigs. Crude Oil imported to the UK and exported from terminals is still allocated to the region of the business.

The business count is derived from trade declarations and is a count of businesses importing and exporting. Please see the re-introduction of EU business counts section for these changes. These apply from the first quarter, January to March 2022 publication onwards.

Where businesses have branches in multiple regions, there are two ways of deriving the count:

Whole number method. A business is counted as one in every region they have employees. This represents the actual count of businesses in any region. However, it will mean the sum of the trader count for each region will be greater than that for the UK.

Proportion method. A business is counted as a fraction in each region they trade based on the proportion of their employees in each region. An individual business counts as one business in the UK. The sum of businesses (whole and fractions) gives the total business count for a region.

We show results from both methods in the accompanying data tables.

RTS data is categorised by partner country and Standard International Trade Classification, Rev.4. (SITC) at division level (2-digit). The SITC is a relatively broad classification of goods, it is not as detailed as the commodity classification available in the OTS. In this release, RTS data is analysed at partner country and SITC section (1-digit) level, with references to SITC divisions where appropriate.

More information can be found in the RTS methodology document.

Related statistics

Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency (NISRA) publish the Northern Ireland Economic Trade Statistics (NIETS). NIETS data is gathered through the NI Annual Business Inquiry (ABI). Due to methodological differences, the NIETS and the RTS are not directly comparable.

On 10 April 2025, HMRC released the Customs Importer and Exporter Population statistics. It reports on the number of importers and exporters in the calendar year 2024. These businesses were named on a customs declaration to move goods between GB and the EU or UK and non-EU countries. These counts will differ to RTS business counts. There are several differences between the two publications. RTS includes data from Intrastat and VAT (for NI only). It also excludes counts of traders that consistently fall under the commodity line threshold outlined.

The ONS produces the ‘International trade in UK nations, regions and cities’ release. It estimates the value of exports and imports of goods and services from 2016 to 2022 for subnational areas of the UK. The ONS release is produced on a BoP basis whilst the RTS is compiled on an International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) basis. There are many different methodologies that contribute to the compilation of each set of statistics. A key difference being RTS is compiled based on goods physically entering or leaving the UK. The ONS subnational trade is produced on a change of economic ownership basis.

Governance

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority (UKSA) has designated these statistics as accredited official statistics. This is in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifies compliance with the Code of Practice for Statistics. Accreditation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

• meet identified user needs
• are well explained and readily accessible
• are produced according to sound methods
• are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest

Once statistics have been designated as accredited official statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed.

Our statistical practice is regulated by the Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR).

OSR sets the standards of trustworthiness, quality and value in the Code of Practice for Statistics that all producers of official statistics should adhere to.

You are welcome to contact us directly with any comments about how we meet these standards by emailing uktradeinfo@hmrc.gov.uk.

Alternatively, you can contact OSR by emailing regulation@statistics.gov.uk or via the OSR website.

The regional trade in goods values undergo regular quality assurance reviews. This ensures they meet customer needs. These reviews are published as a Government Statistical Service (GSS) quality report.

There is a limited service to provide RTS outputs directly from HMRC trade statistics. This is when data cannot be obtained from other sources. This service is subject to HMRC standard disclosure rules applied to previously unpublished data.

Now that the UK has left the EU, it is important that our statistics continue to be of high quality. They must also be internationally comparable. All releases continue to be produced in accordance with the UKSA’s Code of Practice for Statistics. They also follow internationally agreed statistical guidance and standards.