Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays in major cities in England and Wales: 2022 (revised)
Published 25 July 2023
Applies to England and Wales
© Crown copyright 2023
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About this release
This publication provides information on the number of passengers travelling by rail into and out of a number of major city centres in England and Wales.
The statistics are based on a count of passengers carried out in England and Wales between 19 September and 11 December 2022. The statistics represent passengers on National Rail services on a ‘typical’ weekday. Where possible, the count period excludes days when there was disruption, such as a day of rail strikes. Data is collected from franchised train operators at selected major cities across England and Wales. It does not include Open Access operators such as Heathrow Express and Grand Central.
This publication focuses on passenger numbers during the morning and evening peak hours, when rail travel tends to be busiest. The AM peak covers trains arriving into city centres between 07:00 and 09:59, whereas the PM peak reflects trains departing between 16:00 and 18:59. A city centre is defined using a cordon to include the major city centre stations. In some cases, passengers will not alight at the cordon station but are counted there. For crowding statistics, passengers are counted at the busiest station on the route when entering or leaving the city centre.
This statistical release re-introduces two sections:
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Passengers Standing
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Passenger Crowding (PiXC metric)
The previous two years saw almost zero crowding due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The crowding statistics are based on services arriving into cities in the three-hour morning peak and departing from cities in the three-hour afternoon peak.
May 2022 saw the opening of the central section of the Elizabeth Line, and services running as TfL Rail being officially incorporated into the Elizabeth Line. A new section of the release provides some additional findings related to the impact of the Elizabeth Line.
A majority of comparisons throughout this release are between autumn 2022 and (i) the same period in the previous year, and (ii) autumn 2019, the period prior to the COVID-19 pandemic.
For more information see the notes and definitions.
Headline figures
In autumn 2022, there were on average 1,576,764 daily passenger arrivals into major cities. This represents an increase of 43% compared to autumn 2021, but 15% below the same period in autumn 2019. Of these daily arrivals in autumn 2022, 38% were in the morning peak (07:00 to 09:59).
London had the highest rail passenger numbers arriving into a city across the day (997,346), over 9 times that of Birmingham (the second highest at 108,165).
Based on all-day arrivals, in autumn 2022 train operators ran services with a daily seating capacity of 4,210,154, approximately 1% higher than that of 2021 (4,166,441 total seats), and 8% lower than 2019 (4,556,779 total seats). Total seat capacity per day covering all-day arrivals and all-day departures totalled 8,401,228 in autumn 2022.
In autumn 2022, 14% of passengers were standing on trains in the AM and PM peaks across all selected major cities (where standing is defined as the number of passengers in excess of seating capacity). During peak hours approximately 164,000 passengers (18%) were standing on trains arriving into or departing London.
One percent of passengers were in excess of capacity overall during peak hours, an approximate increase of 1 percentage point (pp) from autumn 2021 and 2 pp decrease from autumn 2019. Just over 7,500 (1%) passengers were in excess of capacity (PiXC) on trains across both peaks in London.
Figure 1: Arrivals into Cities by Time of Day: Autumn 2022
On average in major cities including London during autumn 2022, there were 600,986 passenger arrivals during the AM peak, a 49% increase compared to 2021, although 28% below the AM peak arrivals in 2019.
Passengers travelled at slightly different times of the day compared to years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. In London, 45% of daily arrivals were in the morning peak (lower than the 55% in 2019). This fall in peak demand may be due to a decrease in commuting trips. For regional major cities, the two-peak distribution is less pronounced than compared to pre-COVID-19. In 2022, a quarter of arrivals occurred in the 3-hour morning peak, similar to the same period the previous year.
Figure 2: Summary statistics on passenger numbers across major cities on a typical weekday in autumn 2022 (compared with autumn 2021 and the pre-pandemic year 2019)
The summary statistics on passenger numbers across major cities shows:
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total all-day arrivals into all major cities including London totalled 1,576,764, a 43% increase compared to autumn 2021, but a 15% decrease compared to autumn 2019
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total AM peak arrivals into all major cities including London totalled 600,986, a 49% increase compared to autumn 2021, but a 28% decrease compared to autumn 2019
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total PM peak departures from all major cities including London totalled 566,466, a 46% increase compared to autumn 2021, but a 25% decrease compared to autumn 2019
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all-day arrivals into regional major cities (excluding London) totalled 579,419 a 30% increase compared to autumn 2021, but a 21% decrease compared to autumn 2019
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all-day arrivals into London stations totalled 997,346, a 52% increase compared to autumn 2021, but a 10% decrease compared to autumn 2019
Context: Rail recovery since the COVID-19 pandemic
Figure 3: Passenger journeys (millions): Great Britain, July 2018 to March 2023
Passenger rail usage, ORR Data Portal
These ORR estimates are provisional. They may overestimate slightly for 2022 due to the data sources treatment of Elizabeth line passenger journeys.
In 2020, transport was heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, as lockdown measures significantly reduced demand for public transport use. These measures continued to influence demand into 2021, although there was a recovery in rail use as measures were gradually removed. This recovery continued in 2022. A total of 369 million rail passenger journeys were made in Great Britain in autumn 2022 (1 October to 31 December 2022). This was 20% lower than the 461 million journeys in the same quarter three years previous (pre-pandemic). A provisional estimate of 389 million journeys were made in Great Britain in the latest quarter (1 January to 31 March 2023).
For more information on COVID-19 impacts, see:
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DfT’s transport use during the COVID-19 pandemic statistics
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Office for National Statistics (ONS) Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain
Rail passenger demand in major cities
All-day arrivals into London, Birmingham, and Manchester
In autumn 2022, there were 1,576,764 passenger arrivals into major cities on an average day. London remained the city with the highest rail passenger numbers (997,346 arrivals). Passenger arrivals throughout the day into London were over 9 times that of Birmingham (the city with the second highest arrivals with 108,165) and over 12 times that of Manchester (which had 76,793 all day passenger arrivals in 2022).
Figure 4: Passenger Arrivals and Departures by City (outside London): Autumn 2022
The average daily number of rail passengers arriving into major cities (outside London) in England and Wales was 579,419 in autumn 2022. Of these, 147,816 (26%) of arrivals were during the AM peak. The three regional cities with the most all-day arrivals were Birmingham (108,165), Reading (87,162), and Manchester (76,793) on an average autumn day. There were 171,398 departures from major cities (outside London) during the PM peak.
Figure 5: Comparison of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by City (outside London): Autumn 2022 as a percentage increase compared to Autumn 2021
The increase in all-day arrivals into cities outside London from autumn 2021 to autumn 2022 was 30%. The increase of AM peak arrivals was 34%. PM peak departures increased by 36%. The city (outside London) that showed the largest increase in all-day arrivals compared to 2021 was Bristol (50%), followed by Birmingham (46%), and Leeds (35%).
Figure 6: Comparison of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by City (outside London): Autumn 2022 as a percentage of (the pre-pandemic) Autumn 2019
In autumn 2022, rail travel had not recovered to pre-COVID levels (2019). All-day arrivals for major cities outside London were 21% lower than autumn 2019. AM peak arrivals for these cities were 36% lower than 2019, and PM departures were 29% lower than 2019. Newcastle, Bristol, and Cambridge all-day arrivals have recovered more than other cities.
Rail passenger demand in Central London stations
Figure 7: Passenger Counts in London
Passenger numbers arriving into London are counted on arrival at the first station stop in Zone 1 of the TfL Travelcard area on route to London. For example, services terminating at Charing Cross or Cannon Street will be counted at London Bridge. Conversely, passengers departing London are counted at the final station from which a train departs before leaving Zone 1. Passenger numbers are taken from counts conducted on trains at the city centre stations themselves, including standard and first class rail passengers. All services on a ‘typical’ autumn day are counted.
In autumn 2022, the average number of rail passengers arriving into London stations was 997,346. Of these, 453,170 arrivals (45%) were during the AM peak.
Figure 8: Passenger Arrivals and Departures by London Station: Autumn 2022
For more information on passenger arrivals into and departures from Liverpool Street please see the section on the Elizabeth Line.
During this period, the London station with the most all-day arrivals was Liverpool Street with 211,537 arrivals, followed by London Bridge with 202,685 arrivals, and Vauxhall (for Waterloo) with 141,326. London Bridge, however, had the most AM peak arrivals, with 106,667.
There were 985,342 daily departures from London stations in autumn 2022. Of these, 395,068 were during the evening peak.
Figure 9: Comparison of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by London Station: Autumn 2022 as a % increase compared to Autumn 2021
In autumn 2022 there was an increase in rail travel into and out of London stations compared to the previous year. The increase in all-day arrivals into London stations from autumn 2021 to autumn 2022 was 52%. The increase of AM peak arrivals was 56%. PM peak departures increased by 51%. The London stations that showed the most increase in terms of all-day arrivals between periods in these two years were Liverpool Street (172%), Paddington (114%) and Old Street (for Moorgate) (54%)
Figure 10: Comparison of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by London Station: Autumn 2022 as a % of (the pre-pandemic) Autumn 2019
In autumn 2022, there were 10% fewer all-day arrivals into London stations compared to 2019. PM peak departures from London stations were 23% below 2019 levels. The London station with the largest volume in all-day arrivals compared to pre-COVID autumn 2019 was Liverpool Street, (a 71% increase on 2019 arrival levels). Total AM peak arrivals into Liverpool Street were 21% higher than 2019 levels. This would likely be due to both rail recovery and additional Elizabeth Line services – see Elizabeth Line section.
Seat Capacity
Based on all-day arrivals, in autumn 2022 train operators ran services with a daily seating capacity of 4,210,154, approximately 1% higher than that of 2021 (4,166,441 total seats), and 8% lower than 2019 (4,556,779 total seats). Total seat capacity per day covering all-day arrivals and all-day departures totalled 8,401,228 in autumn 2022.
Figure 11: Total Seating Capacity (standard and first class) for all daily arrivals and departures in regional major cities: Autumn 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022
Social distancing capacity in 2020 is shown as a proportion of total (potential available) capacity. For some cities served predominately by commuting services, the proportion of total seating capacity accounting for social distancing capacity is likely to be overstated, due to a standing allowance being included in the social distancing capacity. Cities served predominately by long distance services only have a seating social distance capacity and thus are more representative as a proportion of the total 2020 capacity.
In autumn 2022, total seating capacity on services arriving into major cities outside London increased slightly (by 1%) compared to the same period in 2021 but was 3% below the capacity serving the same cities in 2019. Of all regional cities, Birmingham had the most all-day arrival seating capacity with 297,665 seats (a 11% increase on 2021), followed by Reading with 272,229 seats (a 12% increase compared to 2021) and Manchester with 263,113 seats (a 6% decrease compared to 2021). Total daily seat capacity for services arriving and departing regional cities in 2022 was 3,634,149.
Figure 12: Total Seating Capacity (standard and first class) for all daily arrivals and departures at London Stations: Autumn 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022
Total daily seating capacity for services arriving and departing London in 2022 was 4,767,079 an increase of 1% compared to 2021, but 11% below 2019 levels. For all-day arrivals seating capacity grew also by 1% compared to 2021, and was down by 11% on capacity in 2019. The London station with the greatest daily seating capacity for all-day arrivals was London Bridge with 539,993, a minimal increase in the capacity compared to 2021. This was followed by Liverpool Street with 393,891 seats (a growth of 14% compared to 2021) and then Vauxhall (for Waterloo) with 347,016 seats (a fall of 8% compared to 2021).
Figure 13: Time-series of AM peak standard class passengers and seats by city, 2010-2022. Index 2010=100 (These indices show change over 12 years rather than actual numbers of passengers and seats)
These changes are shown for within the morning peak only when rail demand is dominated by commuter flows into the major city centres. The profile of rail travel throughout the day varies by city due to the mix of journey purposes. Statistics for Brighton, Cambridge and Reading were first published in autumn 2017. Therefore, the figures for 2010 are unavailable for these cities.
Passengers standing
This section provides statistics on the number of passengers standing during the AM and PM peaks. For each service the number of passengers standing is calculated as the difference between the standard class critical load and the number of standard class seats. The critical load point is the location where the passenger load on a service is highest on arrival at (AM peak) or on departure from (PM peak) a city. For each train operator the number of passengers standing are aggregated for all services at each city and are expressed as a percentage of the total standard class critical load.
Table 1: Passengers standing across both peaks by city, Autumn 2022, with percentage point (pp) change against Autumn 2021 and Autumn 2019
| City | Total Standing 2022 | Percent Standing | Change from 2021 (pp) | Change from 2019 (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 3,306 | 4.7% | 3.0 pp | -11.7 pp |
| Brighton | 573 | 4.4% | 0.8 pp | -1.8 pp |
| Bristol | 141 | 0.9% | -1.8 pp | -5.4 pp |
| Cambridge | 67 | 0.4% | 0.2 pp | -12.2 pp |
| Cardiff | 786 | 3.8% | 1.1 pp | -8.0 pp |
| Leeds | 778 | 2.3% | 2.1 pp | -13.0 pp |
| Leicester | 422 | 4.6% | 2.4 pp | 1.5 pp |
| Liverpool | 838 | 2.4% | 0.1 pp | -5.1 pp |
| Manchester | 693 | 1.6% | 1.3 pp | -8.6 pp |
| Newcastle | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -3.1 pp |
| Nottingham | 380 | 5.6% | 4.3 pp | -1.0 pp |
| Reading | 107 | 0.3% | -0.6 pp | -0.9 pp |
| Sheffield | 154 | 1.4% | 1.0 pp | -3.0 pp |
| All cities outside London | 8,244 | 2.6% | 1.2 pp | -7.5 pp |
| London | 163,576 | 17.7% | 11.6 pp | -1.1 pp |
| Total | 171,820 | 13.8% | 9.0 pp | -2.6 pp |
Across all cities in autumn 2022, 13.8% of passengers were standing during the AM and PM peak. This was a 9-percentage point (pp) increase compared to autumn 2021, although 2.6 pp less than autumn 2019. The increase compared to autumn 2021 was predominantly driven by the 11.6 pp increase in the proportion of passengers standing in London (which had the highest proportion of passengers standing). Major cities outside London overall had 2.6% passengers standing, a 1.2 pp increase in the proportion of passengers standing during peak hours on the previous year but 7.5 pp less than autumn 2019. Compared to the previous autumn, there were increases in the proportion of passengers standing during peak travel times in Nottingham (up 4.3 pp), Birmingham (up 3 pp) and Leicester (up 2.4 pp).
Table 2: Percentage of passengers standing in the AM peak by city: Autumn 2022, with percentage point (pp) changes against Autumn 2021 and Autumn 2019
| City | Total Standing 2022 | Percent Standing | Change from 2021 (pp) | Change from 2019 (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 2,025 | 5.9% | 3.2 pp | -12.1 pp |
| Brighton | 271 | 4.4% | 3.9 pp | -2.0 pp |
| Bristol | 22 | 0.3% | -3.4 pp | -4.1 pp |
| Cambridge | 67 | 0.9% | 0.4 pp | -13.5 pp |
| Cardiff | 212 | 2.4% | -0.7 pp | -11.8 pp |
| Leeds | 400 | 2.5% | 2.2 pp | -13.2 pp |
| Leicester | 62 | 1.9% | -2.2 pp | 0.7 pp |
| Liverpool | 301 | 1.8% | -0.2 pp | -7.4 pp |
| Manchester | 428 | 2.1% | 1.7 pp | -9.4 pp |
| Newcastle | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -4.3 pp |
| Nottingham | 75 | 2.9% | 2.9 pp | -2.0 pp |
| Reading | 42 | 0.2% | -1.2 pp | -1.5 pp |
| Sheffield | 24 | 0.5% | -0.1 pp | -3.6 pp |
| All cities outside London | 3,928 | 2.6% | 1.1 pp | -8.5 pp |
| London | 104,223 | 20.9% | 13.5 pp | -1.2 pp |
| Total | 108,151 | 16.7% | 10.8 pp | -2.6 pp |
Overall, the proportion of passengers standing during the morning peak in autumn 2022 was 16.7%. In major cities outside London, 2.6% of passengers were standing compared to 1.6% in 2021, although this was still lower than in 2019, when 11.1% of passengers were standing in AM peak arrival services.
In the AM peak, Brighton and Birmingham had the largest increases in the number of passengers standing (3.9pp and 3.2pp respectively). All cities outside of London had a decrease in passengers standing since 2019 except Leicester. Cambridge and Leeds have seen the largest decrease (down 13.5pp and 13.2pp respectively).
Table 3: Percentage of passengers standing in the AM peak by London station: Autumn 2022, with percentage point (pp) change against Autumn 2021 and Autumn 2019
| Station | Total Standing 2022 | Percent Standing | Change from 2021 (pp) | Change from 2019 (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elephant and Castle (for Blackfriars) | 5,140 | 35.2% | 11.2 pp | 3.4 pp |
| Euston | 3,421 | 17.2% | 15.7 pp | -1.0 pp |
| Fenchurch Street | 4,013 | 15.0% | 11.6 pp | -16.7 pp |
| King’s Cross | 1,057 | 11.2% | 5.3 pp | 2.2 pp |
| Liverpool Street | 36,797 | 34.4% | 19.7 pp | 9.7 pp |
| London Bridge | 17,584 | 16.6% | 11.8 pp | -6.2 pp |
| Marylebone | 1,097 | 10.8% | 8.6 pp | -5.7 pp |
| Old Street (for Moorgate) | 4,028 | 32.1% | 18.7 pp | 5.6 pp |
| Paddington | 8,818 | 26.1% | 24.0 pp | 7.9 pp |
| St. Pancras | 4,326 | 11.9% | 9.3 pp | -4.0 pp |
| Vauxhall (for Waterloo) | 13,933 | 19.5% | 8.7 pp | -6.5 pp |
| Victoria | 4,009 | 7.9% | 5.3 pp | -5.5 pp |
| London Total | 104,223 | 20.9% | 13.5 pp | -1.2 pp |
In autumn 2022, more than 1 in 5 passengers (20.9%) were standing on a service arriving into London within the morning peak. This was a 13.5pp increase from 2021, but slightly less than the proportion of passengers standing in 2019. Paddington had the largest increase in the proportion of passengers standing during the morning peak compared with 2021 (24.0pp), while Elephant and Castle had the largest percentage standing overall (35.2%). Compared to 2021, every London station has seen an increase in the proportion of passengers standing in the morning peak.
Passenger crowding
This statistical release re-introduces passenger crowding statistics and the PiXC metric. The previous two years saw almost zero crowding due to the pandemic.
Historically, rail traffic in the UK has been heavily dominated by peak commuting flows. Therefore, there is a need to clearly identify loadings during peak periods. The crowding statistics are based on services arriving into cities in the three-hour morning peak (07:00 to 09:59) and departing from cities in the three-hour afternoon peak (16:00 to 18:59).
Crowding statistics are calculated using a different base to those in the passenger number statistics section in that they only include standard class passengers and are based on passenger counts at the ‘critical load point’. The critical load point is the location where the passenger load on a service is highest on arrival at (AM peak) or on departure from (PM peak) a city. Crowding is measured by comparing the standard class critical load with the capacity of the service. The standard class capacity includes the number of standard class seats on the service and may include an allowance for standing room.
The number of passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) is the difference between the standard class critical load and the standard class capacity (or zero if the number of passengers is lower than the capacity). For each train operator the number of PiXC are aggregated for all services at each city and are expressed as a percentage of the total standard class critical load.
Table 4: PiXC across both peaks by city: Autumn 2022, with percentage point (pp) change against Autumn 2021 and Autumn 2019
| City | Total PiXC 2022 | Percent PiXC | Change from 2021 (pp) | Change from 2019 (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 609 | 0.9% | 0.5 pp | -2.7 pp |
| Brighton | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -0.8 pp |
| Bristol | 64 | 0.4% | -2.3 pp | -2.5 pp |
| Cambridge | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -2.8 pp |
| Cardiff | 292 | 1.4% | -1.3 pp | -2.3 pp |
| Leeds | 170 | 0.5% | 0.4 pp | -1.4 pp |
| Leicester | 10 | 0.1% | 0.1 pp | -0.8 pp |
| Liverpool | 24 | 0.1% | 0.0 pp | -0.2 pp |
| Manchester | 120 | 0.3% | 0.0 pp | -1.7 pp |
| Newcastle | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Nottingham | 121 | 1.8% | 1.8 pp | 1.4 pp |
| Reading | 7 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Sheffield | 75 | 0.7% | 0.7 pp | 0.0 pp |
| Regional City Total | 1,491 | 0.5% | 0.1 pp | -1.4 pp |
Overall, for all cities outside of London, passengers in excess of capacity was 0.5%. Compared to autumn 2021, Bristol had the largest decrease of passengers in excess of capacity (down 2.3pp) whereas Nottingham had the largest increase (up 1.8pp).
Table 5: PiXC across both peaks by London Station: Autumn 2022, with percentage point (pp) change against Autumn 2021 and Autumn 2019
| City | Total PiXC 2022 | Percent PiXC | Change from 2021 (pp) | Change from 2019 (pp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elephant and Castle (for Blackfriars) | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -0.5 pp |
| Euston | 1,184 | 3.0% | 2.7 pp | -2.4 pp |
| Fenchurch Street | 742 | 1.5% | 1.1 pp | -3.1 pp |
| King’s Cross | 0 | 0.0% | -1.6 pp | -7.3 pp |
| Liverpool Street | 0 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -5.5 pp |
| London Bridge | 1,526 | 0.8% | 0.8 pp | -0.9 pp |
| Marylebone | 1,323 | 7.0% | 5.5 pp | -0.1 pp |
| Old Street (for Moorgate) | 24 | 0.1% | 0.1 pp | 0.1 pp |
| Paddington | 349 | 0.5% | 0.2 pp | -3.8 pp |
| St. Pancras | 740 | 1.1% | 0.5 pp | -2.4 pp |
| Vauxhall (for Waterloo) | 1,632 | 1.3% | 1.2 pp | -3.5 pp |
| Victoria | 44 | 0.0% | 0.0 pp | -0.4 pp |
| London Total | 7,564 | 0.8% | 0.7 pp | -2.7 pp |
Just over 7,500 passengers per day were in excess of capacity across both peaks in London (0.8%), an increase of 0.7 pp on the previous year.
Figure 14: Passengers in excess of capacity across both peaks for midweek London services, 2010 to 2022
Over the last 12 years passengers in excess of capacity for the London AM peak was at its highest in 2015 at 5.8%. In 2022 it was 1.1%.
Figure 15: Distribution of load factor across midweek London peak services, autumn 2022
The mean load factor for services arriving and departing London during peak periods was 52% of the maximum allowable standard class passenger capacity in 2022. Approximately 96% of all London peak services had a load factor less than 100%. This is higher than in autumn 2019 when 82% of peak London services had a load factor less than 100%.
The load factor shows the number of standard class passengers as a percentage of the maximum allowable standard class passenger capacity at the busiest calling point on route to or from the city centre.
Elizabeth Line
The headline figures of this publication focus on arrivals into, and departures from, major cities. Passenger numbers arriving into London are counted on arrival at the first station stop in Zone 1 of the TfL Travelcard area on route to London. For example, services arriving and terminating at Charing Cross or Cannon Street will be counted at London Bridge. Passengers departing London are counted at the final station from which a train leaves Zone 1. This means that for Eastbound services on the Elizabeth Line, arrivals are counted at Paddington and departures are counted at Liverpool Street. The converse is the case for Westbound services.
The opening of the Elizabeth Line represented a major addition to London’s transport network. Its opening transformed travel for the locations it serves in London and the South-East by enhancing transport links, reducing journey times, providing additional capacity, and improving accessibility at stations and on trains. May 2022 saw the opening of the central section of the Elizabeth Line, and services running as TfL Rail being officially incorporated into the Elizabeth Line. In the autumn of 2022, the Elizabeth Line’s Bond Street station opened, and the east and west sections of the line were joined with the central section tunnels. As a result, there was a marked increase in arrivals to these stations in autumn 2022.
This section introduces a breakdown of services that terminate at Liverpool Street and Paddington and those that go on from those stations through central London. It also provides a breakdown of passenger numbers and seating capacity arriving and departing from Paddington station in the other direction. In other words, westbound services from central London arriving into Paddington. Similarly, eastbound services departing Paddington.
Figure 16: Liverpool Street westbound passenger arrivals / eastbound departures on-peak and off-peak services, split by type of count (origin departure, destination arrival, through service) Autumn 2022
In autumn 2022, the number of passengers that arrived on services that terminated at Liverpool Street (76,569) was slightly less than the previous year (77,907). However, with the opening of the Elizabeth Line, there were an additional 134,968 passengers that arrived into Liverpool Street on services that carried on through London. 52,582 of these were during the AM peak and 82,386 were at other times of the day.
Figure 17: Paddington eastbound passenger arrivals / westbound departures on-peak and off-peak services, split by type of count (origin departure, destination arrival, through service) Autumn 2022
In autumn 2022, the number of passengers that arrived on services that terminated at Paddington (42,618) was slightly less than the previous year (43,374). However, with the opening of the Elizabeth Line, there were an additional 50,269 passengers that arrived into Paddington on services that carried on through London. Of these, 19,642 were during the AM peak and 30,627 were at other times of the day.
Figure 18: Paddington arrivals and seating capacity arriving from inside the London cordon (westbound arrivals), and departing into the London cordon (eastbound departures): Autumn 2022
The above chart shows the number of passengers and total seating arriving into Paddington station westbound from central London. Similarly, the departures from Paddington eastbound into central London. In autumn 2022, the number of passengers arriving into Paddington from westbound services was 90,923. Of these, 16,351 were during the AM peak. The total seating capacity was 142,200 seats of which 27,000 were during the morning peak.
Rail trends
This section provides information on some longer-term trends of rail passenger numbers.
Figure 19: Long-term Trends: Annual (April to March) Passenger Rail Usage in Great Britain (millions) 1999 to 2000, to, 2022 to 2023
Passenger rail usage, ORR Data Portal
According to ORR estimates, between 1999 to 2000 and 2019 to 2020 annual passenger rail journeys almost doubled to 1.7 billion journeys. In 2020 to 2021 with the impact of the pandemic, rail journeys fell 77 % to 388 million compared to the previous year. This has since recovered to 1.4 billion journeys in the year 2022 to 2023 (83% of 2019 to 2020).
Figure 20: AM Peak and All-day Arrivals in London Autumn 2011 to Autumn 2022
Between autumn 2011 and autumn 2019, the number of passengers arriving into London had been increasing steadily.
However, in autumn 2022, the number of passengers arriving daily into London was 997,346 (10% below 2019 passenger arrivals and an increase of 3% on 2011).
Arrivals into London during the AM peak had been increasing over the long term. In autumn 2022, the number of passengers arriving into London during the AM peak was 453,170 (a 56% increase on 2021, but a decrease of 15% from 2011).
Before the pandemic, the cities (outside London) with the most all-day arrivals were Birmingham followed by Manchester and Reading. All Regional cities (except Brighton) had seen a steady upward trend in all-day arrivals before the pandemic.
Figure 21: Comparison of all day Passenger Arrivals by Regional City: Autumn 2017 to Autumn 2022
In autumn 2022, all-day arrivals recovered on average by 30% in major cities (outside London) relative to autumn 2021, although were still 21% lower than 2019 all-day arrivals. The largest percentage increase in all-day arrivals in autumn 2022 compared to the previous year was Bristol (50%) followed by Birmingham (46%) and Leeds (35%).
International comparisons
Estimates collated by Eurostat show growth in rail passenger numbers in quarter four (October to end December) between 2021 and 2022 as depicted in Figure 20. In quarter four 2022, Germany, followed by France and Italy had the largest number of passengers in other European countries with 663.4 million, 307.3 million and 196.0 million passengers respectively. For those 3 countries, Germany recovered better than the others with an increase of 28% on the same quarter the previous year. Further information on international comparisons of rail travel is available:
Statistics, Eurostat (europa.eu)
Figure 22: Rail Passengers (thousands) by European Country, quarter 4 2021 and quarter 4 2022
Rail journey distributions
In 2022 rail journeys to and from London stations were more evenly spread throughout the day than in the pre-pandemic profile. The typical peaks (seen before COVID-19) ‘flattened’ slightly in both London and Regional cities.
Figure 23: Percentage of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by Hour, London stations: Autumn 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022
In 2019 (and other years prior to the pandemic), the distribution of journeys into and out of London was defined by two peaks; a larger more pronounced one during AM peak hours and a slightly shorter and wider one in the evening. This pattern was affected during 2020 and 2021 as fewer commuters travel into and out of London.
On a typical autumn day in 2022, 997,346 rail journeys were made into central London. Of these, 45% were made in the morning peak. On an average autumn day in 2019 there were 1,112,241 arrivals, of which, 55% were during the 3-hour morning peak.
Figure 24: Percentage of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by Hour, Regional Major Cities: Autumn 2019, 2020, 2021 and 2022
For regional major cities, the two-peak distribution is less pronounced than compared to pre-COVID-19. In 2022, 26% of arrivals occurred in the 3-hour morning peak, approximately the same proportion as the same period the previous year (25%).
A larger proportion of passengers travelled in the evening peak (29%) in cities outside London than the morning peak, possibly due to a greater proportion of leisure journeys.
Figure 25: Hourly Mean Seating Load Factor Per Service Per Day of Count
The average hourly load factor is calculated as the average of the critical load as a proportion of available seats, taken over all arriving and departing services within a given time period. The hourly mean load factor for all services arriving or departing at London stations in Autumn 2022 shows variation across different days of the week. Midweek services show a typical profile with average loading peaking at peak travel times, at just over 90% in London during the am peak.
Contextual information of Train Operators:
This section includes contextual information provided by train operators.
Autumn 2022 provided a range of challenges for train operators. The period included industrial action.
Avanti West Coast (AWC)
Due to the industrial relations climate, AWCs planned timetable was reduced and caused a number of cancellations. London to Manchester services reduced from three trains per hour to one and London to Birmingham services from two trains per hour to one. Their 11-car class 390 Pendolinos continued to be refurbished and resulted in a few of them not being in service. This resulted in more 9-car class 390 Pendolinos with smaller capacity running on the network. AWC implemented a series of timetables over the course of 2022 to improve reliability for passengers.
Chiltern Railways
In the December 2022 timetable Chiltern Railways reallocated rolling stock to add 11 carriages, 679 seats, per day Mon to Fri to mitigate crowding. Chiltern are restricted with how much rolling stock they now have post COVID. Compared to pre COVID-19, Chiltern had class 172s (that went to WMT) and a slam loco hauled train (decommissioned) and a higher fleet availability on 165s and 168s. They now have 46 less vehicles.
C2C
There was no significant timetable or rolling stock changes in the Autumn 2022 period, however they continued to monitor passenger loadings, adjusting capacity, and amending timetable provision as appropriate. From December 2022, on Saturdays they have increased most of their services via Ockendon to 8 carriages from 4 carriages to match demand on this route. They are hoping to introduce 12x 5 car Class 720 Aventra trains in 2023 which will provide additional capacity and seating across the c2c network to support the existing Class 357 fleet.
Cross country
There were several Changes to weekly service provision, Type/Length of Rolling Stock (Dec-21 Timetable vs May-22 Timetable):
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HSTs: 16 services in the Dec 2021 timetable, 12 services in the May 2022 timetable
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Single Voyagers: 135 services in the Dec 2021 timetable, 270 services in the May 2022 timetable
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Double Voyagers: 119 services in the Dec 2021 timetable, 42 services in the May 2022 timetable
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Class 170’s: 350 services in the Dec 2021 timetable, 326 in the May 2022 timetable
East Midlands Rail
In comparison to 2021, East Midlands Rail increased capacity by 4%, (17,889 more seats). There were no longer any 153s in service, in favour of the 170s.
Govia Thameslink
Leisure travel is bouncing back very strongly after the pandemic with weekend travel now higher than pre-covid on most routes. Journeys to Brighton are now busier on Saturdays than weekdays. Commuter travel returned in smaller numbers as businesses find more efficient ways of working with less travel, for example, working from home and hybrid working.
GTR London demand
Routes with a larger proportion of leisure travel now have more standing weekends than weekdays. For example, Kings Cross and Victoria, especially on longer distance trains. Routes with a larger proportion of commuters have most standing at midweek peaks with less standing Monday peaks and very little Friday standing, for example, London Bridge and St Pancras. These routes are experiencing more weekend standing with the growth of leisure travel.
Greater Anglia
Throughout this count period, Greater Anglia continued to roll out new rolling stock which was completed in the Dec 2022 timetable period. Simultaneously, Greater Anglia closely monitored changing travel patterns with COVID recovery, and continue to adapt the timetable based on measured passenger demand. All of the new Alstom and Stadler fleet rolled out across the Greater Anglia network is fitted with automatic passenger door counts. The number of available door counts has increased substantially, as they have rolled out the new fleet.
Great Western Rail (GWR)
The majority of the 11,579 records were obtained from Automatic Passenger Counting equipment (APC) on the class 800 & 802 IETs, and the 387 Bombardier electrics. Guards’ counts provided most of the data for the 158 and 165 fleets for all locations other than at Oxford where trains are Driver Only Operated. Since May 2022, GWR no longer serves Brighton. Most crowding issues identified have been resolved since the December 2022 timetable change (for example, 1A77 08:35 PLY-PAD is now operated as a 9 car train instead of a 5 car), other issues are expected to be resolved by changes being implemented in the May 2023 timetable.
London North Eastern Railway (LNER)
LNER’s journey numbers have increased overall as the Leisure travel market has grown since COVID and is now 20% bigger in journey terms. LNER’s Azuma fleet gives them greater capacity with an extra 870 seats on most services compared to the legacy fleet. Azuma’s now comprise the majority of services. Demand is more concentrated on the Anglo-Scottish services compared to pre-COVID as this line has benefited from the increase in Leisure travel.
MerseyRail
MerseyRail are transferring to a brand-new class of vehicle that will be fully equipped with passenger counting equipment. The current fleet is over 40 years old and was not fitted with automatic counting equipment. MerseyRail rely on ticket logic data to establish loading at all stations. Data is classed as a “representation of passenger loading” and will not be an exact method of counting, however they have factored in a number of assumptions that are intended to provide an accurate outcome. MerseyRail has seen a growth in leisure travel and a small decline in commuter passengers following Covid.
Northern
During this period Northern saw a greater number of cancellations because of a higher sickness absence - twice the industry average. In addition, there was the ongoing industrial action, and challenges faced by other operators resulting in overcrowding on some of their services. The leisure market continued to see growth resulting in busy services on a Friday and weekends. Northern extended length of trains to meet demand within the existing fleet size although lengthening trains are dependent on platform lengths which can limit number of carriages they can operate.
New timetables were introduced in December and May and since the new year Northern are operating an improved performance with a lower level of cancellations.
South Eastern Rail
Overall, total London arrivals and departures increased by 28% on Autumn 21 and 15% up on Spring 2022. The base timetable in operation from May 2022 was in effect a continuation of the December 2021 timetable, with a limited number of (mainly weekend) additional services. Since December 2022, we introduced a very different timetable, designed to improve performance, but which still provided capacity and allowed for growth. It also saw the introduction of the new Charing Cross to Maidstone East services. The Autumn 2022 census was the last they will submit with First Class patronage figures, as this was removed, further adding capacity on the Mainline, from December. Going forward, this Autumn will see the introduction in service of our remaining class 707s with the subsequent removal from service of more Networker stock.
South Western Rail (SWR)
During Autumn 2022 SWR continued to see an increase in the number of passengers as the country recovered from Covid-19. SWR continue to monitor loadings on services and since Autumn 2022 made some changes to formations in both the AM & PM peaks to ensure the busiest services have the highest capacity. Moving forward, the introduction of the Arterio fleet will provide a capacity boost on our suburban services.
Trans Pennine Express (TPE)
Throughout the Autumn 2022 period, TPE continued to run a reduced number of services compared to pre-pandemic volumes, at around 85% the number operated under the December 2019 timetable. Since the Autumn 2021 counts, 1 Class 802 “Nova 1” diagram has been added to Anglo-Scottish services on the West Coast Mainline. TPE passenger volumes during the count period were at roughly 70% of pre-COVID levels. Leisure travel was the primary reason for customer journeys during the count period, making up around two-thirds of all journeys.
Transport for Wales
There was a Transformation transition with CAF class 197, STADLER 231 and MK4 loco stock testing and traincrew training progressing. Challenges began to appear in rail performance and capacity offered with delivery and maintenance of both legacy and new rolling stock. This included greater reliance on traincrew for the transition and delivery of timetable, alongside experiencing a higher level of absence compared to 3 years ago (as did most industries). Overall Performance had been challenging with the transition between legacy and new fleet readiness and Network Rail Wales Route performance highlighted within ORR’s recent review, however there was a slight year on year improvement delivered this Autumn through collaboration with Network Rail. Industrial action – TfW was not involved in industrial action throughout the Autumn but on the days where industrial action by ASLEF or RMT at other operators, resulted in TfW services across the network being very busy.
West Midlands Rail
West Midlands Trains’ passenger count data for autumn 2022 was collated from a mix of scheduled manual surveys and loadings derived from automatic passenger counting (APC) equipment, primarily fitted to selected units within the class 350 Desiro fleet. For trains where APC loading information had been provided, the largest available representative data sample has been used, excluding known holiday periods, to ensure that the counts supplied, as far as possible, reflect typical weekday service demand during the survey window. Where manual surveys have been used, primarily for regional trains serving Birmingham stations, these have been carried out on dates which, as far as possible, reflect the typical level of passenger demand for autumn 2022. No known service anomalies were present on the dates used.
The West Midlands Trains timetable during the autumn 2022 census was broadly the same as that provided in autumn 2021. This was essentially the same timetable that had been in use since the latter half of 2020, delivering its capacity through a modular approach and on several routes making use of longer, less frequent services than had traditionally been the case. Notable examples of this included the Liverpool to Birmingham route, with services remaining self - contained and operating as hourly 8 – car trains, on the West Coast Main Line, where only one direct West Midlands Trains through service per hour operated between Birmingham and London, and the Cross City route in Birmingham where four trains per hour operated, with all services being formed of 6 – car formations. Similar principles were in place on the Snow Hill lines in Birmingham and on the regional routes operating to Shrewsbury and Hereford.
Passenger numbers recovered progressively over the course of 2021 and 2022, barring specific periods when usage dropped following the reintroduction of Covid-19 restrictions by the UK Government. By autumn 2022 the number of passengers using West Midlands Trains services generally stood at around 90% of the equivalent pre-Covid levels.
Since autumn 2022, West Midlands Trains has made a range of changes to its service offering, intended to provide a more reliable operation that makes better use of its available train capacity. Most significant of these was the delivery of a heavily revised timetable in December 2022, featuring the first major recast of operations on the West Coast Main Line since late 2020. A core feature of the December 2022 timetable was the introduction of half hourly direct services between Birmingham New Street – Northampton – London Euston, providing an uplift over the hourly through service that had operated for the previous two years. This change has already yielded a significant improvement in the distribution of WMT passenger loadings on the West Coast route.
In autumn 2022, the hourly through Birmingham – Northampton – London trains were seen to be extremely busy across the day, whereas the local Birmingham – Northampton and Northampton – London shuttle services were generally very quiet outside of peak commuter hours. The move to a regular pattern of half hourly through services between Birmingham and London has led to a far more even distribution of passengers across these trains, with most services across the day now being reasonably loaded. The double benefit of this has been a generally far more effective use of the existing capacity on the West Coast than in autumn 2022, combined with a greater ability to recover and grow West Midlands Trains’ longer distance leisure markets. West Midlands Trains continues to monitor capacity and patronage levels across the routes it operates, to ensure that the services provided are best matched to customer demand. West Midlands Trains will be continuing with the delivery of new rolling stock fleets throughout the next two years, providing an uplift on the existing franchise train fleet capacity and an improvement in customer experience. The franchise will look to deploy these new trains in the most effective way to meet customer demand whilst continuing to further grow passenger revenues.
Technical information
Strengths and weaknesses of the data
The statistics on rail passenger demand and crowding are based on counts carried out by train operators of the numbers of passengers using their services, either using automatic counting equipment fitted to trains or manual counts carried out on board trains or at stations. While the statistics should be a reliable guide to the magnitude of passenger numbers at particular locations and at different times of day, a number of factors can affect these statistics.
Passenger numbers on individual train services fluctuate from day to day and may vary across the autumn period. This can have an impact on the aggregate statistics, depending on the sample of days each year on which passengers are counted. This particularly affects cases when counts are based on a small number of services or where services have only been counted a small number of times, as changes from year to year may reflect these fluctuations rather than a genuine trend. For the same reason, small differences in the crowding figures between routes or when comparing different years should be treated with caution.
Passenger counts can be subject to measurement errors. For example, with manual counts there is a risk of human error leading to incorrect counts, particularly on busy trains. Load- weighing equipment calculates the passenger load by assuming an average weight per passenger, which may not always be representative of the passengers on every train, and all automatic counting equipment can sometimes develop faults.
The statistics are designed to represent a typical weekday during school term time in the autumn and may not be representative of other times of year, or on particular days of the week. They will also not reflect crowding seen on days when there was disruption. The autumn period is used because it is the time of year when commuter demand is generally at its greatest, but this will not necessarily be the case for all operators and on all routes, and crowding may be higher at other times of year or on particular days of the week in some cases.
The basis on which standing allowances for different types of rolling stock are calculated can vary between train operators, usually because of the types of rolling stock in their fleets and the types of passenger services they provide. The method for calculating them has also varied over time. This will have an impact on the PiXC figures for each operator.
Because some services include a standing allowance in their standard class capacity while longer distance services only include the number of standard class seats, the nature of PiXC is different in these cases. On services with no standing allowance it represents passengers having to stand for more than 20 minutes, whereas on services with a standing allowance, it represents passengers standing in cramped conditions.
More information about the methodology behind these statistics and factors that affect them can be found in the notes and definitions document that accompanies this statistical series: rail statistics guidance.
Tables accompanying this release
Ten tables have been published alongside this release, three showing passenger number statistics and seven showing crowding statistics. The tables are listed below and can be found at the following link: statistical data sets - capacity and overcrowding
Passenger number statistics tables
Passenger number statistics tables
|Table Number |Table Title | |:————|:—————————————————————————————————————————–|
| RAI0201 | City centre peak and all day arrivals by rail on a typical autumn weekday, by city: annual from 2010 |
| RAI0202 | City centre arrivals and departures by rail on a typical autumn weekday after- noon, by city and time band: annual from 2011 |
| RAI0203 | Central London arrivals and departures by rail on a typical autumn weekday afternoon, by city and time band: annual from 2011 |
Crowding statistics tables
| Table Number | Table Title |
|---|---|
| RAI0209 | Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday by city: annual from 2011 |
| RAI0210 | Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday on London and South East train operators’ services: annual from 1990 |
| RAI0211 | Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday by operator: London and South East train operators: annual from 2000 |
| RAI0212 | Peak rail capacity, standard class critical loads and crowding on a typical autumn weekday by city: annual from 2010 |
| RAI0213 | Peak crowding on a typical autumn weekday by city and train operator: annual from 2011 |
| RAI0214 | Peak crowding on a typical autumn weekday in London by terminal and train operator: annual from 2011 |
| RAI0215 | Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday by city: annual from 2011 |
Acknowledgements
The Rail Statistics team at DfT would like to say thank you to colleagues in Train Operating Companies who have spent time collecting, processing, and checking data to be used in this statistical publication.
Background notes
Further details about all the statistics in this report can be found in the notes and definitions.
The United Kingdom Statistics Authority designated these statistics as National Statistics in 2013, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:
- meet identified user needs
- are well explained and readily accessible
- are produced according to sound methods
- are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest
Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed. The continued designation was confirmed in October 2017, national statistics status of rail passenger numbers and crowding statistics.
Details of Ministers and officials who receive pre-release access to these statistics up to 24 hours before release can be found in the pre-release access list.
Users and uses of these statistics
These statistics and the underlying passenger counts are used within Government and across the rail industry for a wide variety of purposes. Some of the main uses include:
- informing Government policy on rail, including decisions on infrastructure, station and rolling stock investment
- as part of the rail franchising process, informing the specification of new franchises and the
- models used in the assessment of franchise bids
- in the day to day running of train operating companies, including planning timetables and rolling stock deployment
- understanding and monitoring passenger demand and crowding
- validating models of passenger demand
A summary of feedback received from users in 2013 is published on the DfT rail statistics notes and guidance page.
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