National statistics

Rail passenger numbers and crowding on weekdays in major cities in England and Wales: 2021 (revised)

Published 22 September 2022

Applies to England and Wales

About this release

This publication provides information on the number of passengers travelling by rail into and out of a number of major city centres in England and Wales.

The statistics are based on a count of passengers carried out in England and Wales between 20 September and 12 December 2021. The count occurred during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, which led to rail demand falling relative to historic pre-pandemic levels. The ‘Impact of Coronavirus’ section summarises how the 2021 count period was affected, and Annex 1 summarises the measures in place which significantly reduced rail demand during 2020.

The statistics presented represent passengers on National Rail services on a ‘typical’ weekday. Where possible, the count period excludes days when there was disruption. Data is collected from franchised train operators at selected major cities across England and Wales. It does not include Open Access operators such as Heathrow Express and Grand Central.

This publication focuses on passenger numbers during the morning and evening peak hours, when rail travel tends to be busiest. The AM peak covers trains arriving into city centres between 07:00 and 09:59, whereas the PM peak reflects trains departing between 16:00 and 18:59. A city centre is defined using a cordon to include the major city centre stations. In some cases, passengers will not alight at the cordon station but are counted there. For crowding statistics, passengers are counted at the busiest station on the route when entering or leaving the city centre.

For more information see the notes and definitions.

Main points

In autumn 2021 there were on average 1,105,379 daily passenger arrivals into major cities. This represents an increase of 144% compared to the same period in the previous year, but a decrease of 40% compared to the same period in autumn 2019. 36% of these daily arrivals were in the morning peak (07:00 to 09:59).

Passengers travelled at slightly different times of the day compared to years prior to COVID-19. In London, 44% of daily arrivals were in the morning peak (an increase from the 39% recorded in 2020, but lower than 55% in 2019) reflecting a flattening of peak-demand due to a decrease in commuting trips. For regional major cities, the pre-COVID-19 2-peak distribution was replaced by a more flattened spread of rail travel across the day. In 2021, 25% of arrivals occurred in the 3-hour morning peak, the same proportion as the same period the previous year.

London had the highest rail passenger numbers arriving into a city across the day (658,143); over 8 times that of Birmingham (second highest at 73,874).

On average in selected major cities during autumn 2021, there was a 158% increase of passenger arrivals during the AM peak (07:00 to 09:59) compared to 2020, although it was a 52% reduction compared to 2019.

Estimates suggest seating capacity in autumn 2021 was lower than in the equivalent period in 2019 and 2020, by 9% and 1% respectively.

Summary statistics across all major cities on a typical week-day in Autumn 2021 (compared with Autumn 2020 and 2019):

Impact of Coronavirus

In 2020, transport was heavily impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, as lockdown measures significantly reduced demand for public transport use. These measures continued to influence demand into 2021, although there was a recovery in rail use, as measures were gradually removed. Figure 1 below summarises the number of rail passenger journeys as a proportion of rail passenger journeys (see the black line in the below chart) undertaken on the equivalent day in 2019. It shows rail demand peaking at around 70% of 2019 levels of demand towards the end of 2021.

Figure 1: Index of Transport Use in 2021 (compared to 2019)

Figure 1 excludes weekends and bank holidays.

Throughout the observed autumn 2021 period, only one government measure, the implementation of ‘Plan B’ measures, was announced on 8 December 2021 to combat the spread of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. These measures included the mandatory wearing of masks in most indoor public spaces, social distancing, and mandatory use of the NHS Covid Pass for certain settings. Annex 1 summarises the measures the UK government introduced during the pandemic in 2020.

Figure 2: Timeline of UK COVID-19 measures

For more information on COVID-19 impacts

• Department for Transport’s (DfT) transport use during the COVID-19 pandemic statistics

• DfT’s All Change? Travel tracker

• Office for National Statistics (ONS) Coronavirus and the social impacts on Great Britain

• Transport Focus weekly travel during COVID-19 survey

Standing and Overcrowding Measures

In previous years this publication has presented estimates of overcrowding on trains during peak times using the PiXC (Passengers in Excess of Capacity) metric. PiXC statistics show the overall percentage of passengers that exceed each train’s capacity and are derived from passenger counts at a train’s busiest point on route into (AM peak) or out of (PM peak) a city centre. However, owing to the fact that for approximately 97.5% services observed in autumn 2021 seating capacity exceeded passenger numbers, there will be no reporting of overcrowding and passenger standing measures within this statistical release.

For those 2.5% services which did carry more passengers than seats, they were predominately on routes with standing allowance so there was limited overcrowding. Data tables RAI0212 and RAI0213 summarise the number of services with passengers in excess of capacity for regional cities and London stations respectively. These published tables contain these metrics for the purpose of maintaining the long-term timeseries: rail passenger numbers and crowding on 2021.

Rail passenger demand in major cities

All day arrivals:

In autumn 2021, there were 1,105,379 arrivals into major cities on an average day. London remained the city with the highest rail passenger numbers. On an average autumn day there were 658,143 arrivals into London. Passenger arrivals throughout the day into London were just over 8 times that of Birmingham (the city with the second highest arrivals with 73,874) and over 10 times that of Manchester (which had 59,645 all day passenger arrivals in 2021).

Figure 3: Passenger Arrivals and Departures by City (outside London): Autumn 2021

Railway Station	AM peak arrivals (07:00-09:59)	All day arrivals	PM peak departures (16:00-18:59)
Birmingham	21,586	73,874	24,206
Brighton	4,315	20,854	5,572
Bristol	4,746	19,947	6,099
Cambridge	5,849	19,302	5,884
Cardiff	5,347	30,505	8,215
Leeds	12,554	42,043	12,306
Leicester	3,323	18,321	4,145
Liverpool	15,291	44,287	15,180
Manchester	15,771	59,645	17,376
Newcastle	2,480	20,129	3,545
Nottingham	2,344	11,850	3,734
Reading	12,739	66,273	14,717
Sheffield	4,286	20,206	4,843

The average daily number of rail passengers arriving into major cities (outside London) in England and Wales was 447,236 in autumn 2021. Of these, 110,630 (25%) of arrivals were during the AM peak. The 3 regional cities with the most all-day arrivals was Birmingham, Reading, and Manchester with 73,874, 66,273, and 59,645 arrivals on an autumn average day. There were 125,824 departures from major cities (outside London) during the pm peak.

Figure 4: Comparison of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by City (outside London): Autumn 2021 as a percentage change (increase) from Autumn 2020 levels

Railway Station	AM peak arrivals (07:00-09:59)	All day arrivals	PM peak departures (16:00-18:59)
Birmingham	168%	150%	193%
Brighton	86%	90%	86%
Bristol	235%	197%	179%
Cambridge	130%	133%	136%
Cardiff	310%	457%	379%
Leeds	169%	201%	249%
Leicester	260%	204%	161%
Liverpool	175%	149%	243%
Manchester	267%	248%	241%
Newcastle	171%	227%	131%
Nottingham	269%	298%	176%
Reading	183%	174%	160%
Sheffield	194%	205%	184%

In autumn 2021, there was a recovery in rail travel compared to the previous year (when government measures to restrict the spread of COVID-19 significantly reduced travel). The increase in all-day arrivals into cities outside London from autumn 2020 to autumn 2021 was 187%. AM peak arrivals increased by 187% for the cities outside London. PM peak departures increased by 196%. The city (outside London) that showed the most recovery in all day arrivals between periods in these 2 years was Cardiff (increased by 457% on 2020), followed by Nottingham (298%), and Manchester (248%).

Figure 5: Comparison of passenger arrivals and departures by city (outside London): Autumn 2021 as a percentage  of Autumn 2019 levels

Station	AM peak arrivals (07:00-09:59)	All day arrivals	PM peak departures (16:00-18:59)
Birmingham	43%	54%	48%
Brighton	53%	63%	65%
Bristol	46%	60%	48%
Cambridge	63%	68%	64%
Cardiff	33%	70%	49%
Leeds	45%	55%	45%
Leicester	57%	63%	55%
Liverpool	69%	68%	67%
Manchester	45%	56%	47%
Newcastle	51%	77%	55%
Nottingham	46%	69%	69%
Reading	47%	64%	55%
Sheffield	56%	59%	50%

As of autumn 2021, rail travel had not yet recovered to pre-COVID-19 levels (2019). All day arrivals for major cities outside London were 61% of autumn 2019. AM peak arrivals for these cities were 48% of 2019. PM departures were 52% compared to that year. In autumn 2021 AM peak arrivals in Cardiff were 33% the levels of the same period in 2019.

Rail passenger demand in selected Central London stations

In autumn 2021, the average number of rail passengers arriving into London stations was 658,143. Of these, 291,416 (44%) of arrivals were during the AM peak.

Figure 6: Passenger Arrivals and Departures by London Station: Autumn 2021

Railway Station	AM peak arrivals (07:00-09:59)	All day arrivals	PM peak departures (16:00-18:59)
Elephant and Castle (for Blackfriars)	9,543	18,073	7,598
King’s Cross	6,101	22,248	7,406
Liverpool Street	37,396	77,907	36,431
London Bridge	77,296	156,568	66,140
London Euston	13,140	41,039	13,167
London Fenchurch Street	12,186	20,285	10,398
London Marylebone	6,867	15,293	6,413
Old Street (for Moorgate)	5,314	8,678	4,300
Paddington	14,423	43,374	14,094
St. Pancras	23,912	58,339	22,028
Vauxhall (for Waterloo)	52,471	120,575	44,283
Victoria	32,768	75,763	29,252

During this period, the London station with the most all-day arrivals was London Bridge with 156,568 arrivals, followed by Vauxhall (for Waterloo) with 120,575 arrivals, and Liverpool Street with 77,907 arrivals on an average autumn day. London Bridge also had the most AM peak arrivals, 77,296, with nearly as many arrivals between 7am and 10am as passengers arriving into Liverpool Street throughout a whole day.

There were 658,754 daily departures from London stations in autumn 2021. Of these, 261,509 were during the evening peak.

Figure 7: Comparison of passenger arrivals and departures by London station: Autumn 2021 as a percentage change (increase) from Autumn 2020 levels

Railway Station	AM peak arrivals (07:00-09:59)	All day arrivals	PM peak departures (16:00-18:59)
Elephant and Castle (for Blackfriars)	109%	93%	139%
King’s Cross	170%	153%	128%
Liverpool Street	200%	136%	209%
London Bridge	140%	114%	122%
London Euston	126%	120%	143%
London Fenchurch Street	120%	70%	88%
London Marylebone	566%	519%	374%
Old Street (for Moorgate)	50%	3%	25%
Paddington	165%	134%	119%
St. Pancras	197%	153%	158%
Vauxhall (for Waterloo)	299%	240%	261%
Victoria	41%	39%	32%

In autumn 2021, there was a recovery in rail travel into and out of London stations compared to the previous year. The increase in all-day arrivals into London stations from autumn 2020 to autumn 2021 was 121%. The recovery of AM peak arrivals was even greater (148%). PM peak departures increased by 131%. The London station that showed the most recovery in terms of all day arrivals between periods in these 2 years were London Marylebone (increased by 519% on 2020), followed by Vauxhall (for Waterloo) (240%) and St Pancras International (153%). 

Marylebone is a relatively smaller terminus in London, where the majority of passenger arrivals are commuters. With increased home working throughout 2020, daily arrivals in 2020 fell to a very small number (approximately 2,500), hence the consequent absolute growth in passenger arrivals in 2021 (approximately an additional 13,000 daily arrivals), whilst modest relative to other stations, shows a large percentage increase.

Figure 8: Comparison of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by London Station: Autumn 2021 as a percentage  of Autumn 2019 levels

Railway Station	AM peak arrivals (07:00-09:59)	All day arrivals	PM peak departures (16:00-18:59)
Elephant and Castle (for Blackfriars)	46%	56%	51%
King’s Cross	39%	57%	45%
Liverpool Street	50%	63%	54%
London Bridge	48%	61%	52%
London Euston	39%	47%	43%
London Fenchurch Street	46%	54%	44%
London Marylebone	41%	51%	49%
Old Street (for Moorgate)	45%	52%	45%
Paddington	47%	61%	52%
St. Pancras	54%	66%	57%
Vauxhall (for Waterloo)	46%	56%	48%
Victoria	55%	66%	56%

The London stations with the most recovery in all-day arrivals compared to pre-COVID-19 autumn 2019 were St. Pancras International and Victoria (both 66% of 2019 arrival levels). Total AM peak arrivals into Victoria was 55% of 2019 levels. PM peak departures from London stations were 51% of 2019.

Passenger Counts in London

Passenger numbers arriving into London are counted on arrival at the first station stop in Zone 1 of the Transport for London (TfL) Travelcard area on route to London. For example, services terminating at Charing Cross or Cannon Street will be counted at London Bridge. Conversely, passengers departing London are counted at the final station from which a train departs before leaving Zone 1. Passenger numbers are taken from counts conducted on trains at the city centre stations themselves, including standard and first class rail passengers. All services on a ‘typical’ autumn day are counted.

Rail trends

This section provides information on some longer-term trends of rail passenger numbers.

Figure 9: Passenger rail usage in Great Britain (millions), annual data, April 1999 to March 2022 (based on Office of Rail and Road estimates)

According to Office of Rail and Road estimates, between the year ending March 2000 and the year ending March 2020 annual passenger rail journeys almost doubled to 1.7 billion journeys. In the year ending March 2021 with the impact of the pandemic, rail journeys fell 78% to 388 million compared to the previous year. This has since recovered to 990 million rail journeys in the year ending March 2022, a 155% increase over the previous 12 months, although still less than 60% of the rail journeys made in the year ending March 2020.

Figure 10: AM Peak and All-day Arrivals into London stations: Autumn 2011 to Autumn 2021

Between autumn 2011 and autumn 2019, the number of passengers arriving into London had been increasing steadily (orange bar in chart).

However, in autumn 2021, the number of passengers arriving daily into London was 658,143 (a decrease of 41% on 2019 and 32% on 2011).

Similarly, arrivals into London during the AM peak (blue bar) had been increasing over the long term. In autumn 2021, the number of passengers arriving into London during the AM peak was 291,416 (a decrease of 52% on 2019 and 45% on 2011).

Before the pandemic, the cities (outside London) with the most all-day arrivals were Birmingham followed by Manchester and Reading. All Regional cities (except Brighton) had seen a steady upward trend in all-day arrivals before the pandemic.

Figure 11: Comparison of all day Passenger Arrivals by Regional City: Autumn 2017 to Autumn 2021

In autumn 2021, all-day arrivals recovered on average by 187% in major cities (outside London) although were still down by 39% on 2019 all-day arrivals. The largest percentage recovery in all-day arrivals was Cardiff (457%) followed by Nottingham (298%) and Manchester (248%).

Rail journey distributions

In 2021 rail journeys were more evenly spread throughout the day than in the pre-pandemic profile, albeit less so than in 2020. The typical peaks (seen before COVID-19) ‘flattened’ in both London and Regional cities.

Figure 12: Proportion of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by Hour, London stations: Autumn 2019, 2020 and 2021

In 2019 (and other years prior to the pandemic) the distribution of journeys into and out of London was defined by 2 peaks; a larger more pronounced one during AM peak hours and a slightly shorter and wider one in the evening. This pattern was affected during 2020 and 2021 as fewer commuters travelled into and out of London.

On a typical autumn day in 2021, 658,143 rail journeys were made into central London. Of these, 44% were made in the morning peak. On an average autumn day in 2019 there were 1.1 million arrivals, of which, 55% were during the 3-hour morning peak.

Figure 13: Proportion of Passenger Arrivals and Departures by Hour, Regional Major Cities: Autumn 2019, 2020 and 2021

For regional major cities, the pre-COVID-19 2-peak distribution was replaced by a more even spread of rail travel across the day. In 2021, 25% of arrivals occurred in the 3-hour morning peak, the same proportion as the same period the previous year.

A larger proportion of passengers travelled in the evening peak (29%) in cities outside London than the morning peak, possibly due to a greater proportion of leisure journeys.

Seat capacity

Total seating capacity, covering all day arrivals and all day departures totalled 8,306,432 in 2021.

Train operators ran services in 2021 with daily seat capacity of 4,166,441, based on all day arrivals, approximately 99% that of 2020 (4,197,587 total seats), and 91% of that in 2019 (4,556,779 total seats).

Figure 14: Total Seating Capacity (standard and first class) for all daily arrivals and departures in regional major cities: Autumn 2019, Autumn 2020 and Autumn 2021

In autumn 2021, total daily seating capacity arriving and departing regional cities in 2021 was 3,592,835.

Total seating capacity arriving into major cities outside London increased by 11% compared to the same period in 2020 but was 4% lower compared to the capacity serving the same cities in 2019. Of all regional cities, Manchester had the most all day arrival seating capacity, 281,529 (a 20% increase on 2020), followed by Birmingham with 269,538 seats (a 4% reduction compared to 2020) and Reading with 242,716 seats (a 2% increase compared to 2020).

Figure 15: Total Seating Capacity (standard and first class) for all daily arrivals and departures at London Stations: Autumn 2019, Autumn 2020 and Autumn 2021

Social capacity in 2020 is shown as a proportion of total (potential available) capacity. For some London stations served predominately by commuting services, the proportion of total seating capacity accounted for social distancing capacity is likely to be overstated, due to a standing allowance being included in the social distancing capacity. London stations served predominately by long distance services only have a seating social distance capacity and thus are more representative as a proportion of the total 2020 capacity.

Total daily seating capacity for services arriving and departing London in 2021 was 4,713,597.

Total seating capacity for all day arrivals fell by 8% compared to 2020, and was down by 12% on capacity in 2019. The London station with the greatest daily seating capacity for all day arrivals was London Bridge with 539,986, a fall of 12% compared to 2020. This was followed by Vauxhall (for Waterloo) with 377,381 seats (a fall of 6% compared to 2020) and then Liverpool Street with 344,875 seats (a fall of 10% compared to 2020).

Figure 16: Time-series of AM Peak standard class passengers and seats by city, 2010 to 2021. Index 2010=100 (These indices show change over 10 years rather than actual numbers of passengers and seats)

These changes are shown for within the morning peak only, when rail demand is dominated by commuter flows into the major city centres. The profile of rail travel throughout the day varies by city due to the mix of journey purposes. Statistics for Brighton, Cambridge and Reading were first published in autumn 2017. Therefore, the figures for 2010 are unavailable for these cities.

Since the pandemic, all cities have capacity that exceeds passenger numbers which has resulted in almost no crowding. In 2021, the gap between capacity and passenger numbers reduced compared to the previous year.

Rail journey purposes

In this section estimates have been sourced from the National Travel Survey (NTS) and represent the full calendar year 2021 in England.

Figure 17: Rail journey purpose: England only, 2021

The average number of rail commuting trips made per person per year in England increased from 4 to 5, between 2020 and 2021. From 2002 to 2019 this number increased by nearly two-thirds (from 6 trips per person per year to 10) before falling to 4 in 2020 as a result of the pandemic. During this period, the number of commuting trips made by car per person had declined from 96 in 2002 to 61 in 2021.

In 2020, because of the pandemic and home working, the number of leisure and shopping trips was greater than commuting or business trips. In 2021, however, the pattern shifted back towards pre-pandemic trends with 51% of rail trips being either for commuting or business purposes compared to 38% trips for leisure or shopping. In 2021, on average males between 17 to 49 made more rail trips (21 trips per person per year) than females (18 trips). Higher earning households made more rail trips on average. In 2021, the highest earning quintile made 16 trips per person per year compared to 3 in the lowest. People professional or managerial jobs made the most trips of any occupational sector with 17 trips per person per year.

Figure 18: Rail journey purposes 2021 (compared to the 2 previous years)

Journey Purpose	2021	2020	2019
Commuting	49%	37%	47%
Leisure or Shopping	38%	44%	31%
Business	3%	4%	10%
Education	7%	10%	7%
Other	4%	5%	5%

The impact of measures to control the spread of COVID-19 affected some journey types more than others. This led to a shift in journey purpose estimates between 2019 and 2020, with the proportion of commuting journeys falling from 47% to 37%. There was however a recovery in commuting, which made up 49% of all rail journeys in 2021.

Perceptions of rail

This section provides findings from social research commissioned by the DfT – the ‘All Change? Travel Tracker’, and the Rail Delivery Group (RDG). They are not National Statistics.

In 2021, a majority of passengers rated their ability to keep safe while travelling by rail as ‘Good’, although as rail demand recovered throughout 2021, there was a decrease of passengers with this view. In February to March 2021, when social distancing measures were in place, 81% of respondents felt they were able to keep safe. In November 2021 this had decreased to 54%. This is summarised in Figure 19.

Figure 19: How would you rate your last rail journey in terms of your ability to keep a safe distance from other passengers while travelling?

The pattern was similarly observed with passengers rating their ability to keep safe at railway stations as depicted in Figure 20, with 66% reporting as ‘Good’ in February to March 2021, increasing to 81% in May to June 2021. This fell back in November 2021 to 61%.

Figure 20: How would you rate your last rail journey in terms of your ability to keep a safe distance from other passengers while at a station?

Despite the majority of passengers rating their ability to keep safe while travelling by rail as “Good”, as summarised above in Figure 19 and Figure 20, overcrowding on services remained a potential barrier to returning to rail for some passengers, as depicted in Figure 21 and Figure 22. In September 2021, 33% of pre-pandemic rail users said there would need to be an increase in the number of services to avoid crowding before they would feel comfortable travelling by train. This had fallen slightly to 30% by November 2021, as shown in Figure 21.

Figure 21: Which, if any, of these conditions would need to be met before you personally feel comfortable travelling by train?

As seen in Figure 22, people travelling by train for leisure were least likely to feel nervous about returning to rail due to overcrowding in all three time periods, 46% in July 2021, 40% in September and 40% in November.

Figure 22: To what extent do you agree with the following statements about your rail travel in the near future: “I am nervous about return to rail as overcrowding seems to be a problem on some services”

International comparisons

Estimates collated by Eurostat illustrate the impact of COVID-19 in the last quarter of 2020 and the level of recovery by Q4 (October to end December) 2021 on rail passenger numbers in other countries throughout Europe, as depicted in Figure 23. In Q4 2021, Germany, followed by France and Italy had the largest number of passengers in other European countries with 516.6 million, 275.5 million and 157.2 million passengers respectively. For those 3 countries, Italy recovered better than the others with an increase of 77% on the same quarter the previous year. Further information on international comparisons of rail travel are available at Eurostat.

Figure 23: Rail passengers (thousands) by European Country, Quarter 4 2020 and Quarter 4 2021

Passengers by European Country	Q4 2021 Passengers (‘000)	Q4 2020 Passengers (‘000)
Germany	516,600	40,6081
France	275,455	191,724
Italy	157,248	88,977
Spain	122,041	85,390
Switzerland	101,544	83,057
Poland	72,622	42,995
Netherlands	71,406	40,090
Sweden	54,750	37,175
Turkey	52,202	23,240
Denmark	42,190	31,493
Czechia	39,774	25,167

Data before 2020 unavailable from Eurostat data portal (as of 13 September 2022).

Contextual information of Train Operators during the pandemic:

Autumn 2021 provided a range of challenges for train operators. Each had to balance priorities; including policies that protected passengers and staff, providing a good service to passengers, and flexibility as government measures changed.

TransPennine Express (TPE) ran a reduced number of services throughout the autumn 2021 period compared to pre-COVID-19 volumes, although types, formations and deployed rolling stock remained constant throughout the count period. In line with data collected at the national level, TPE passenger volumes were approximately 66% that of pre-COVID-19 levels when the autumn 2021 count period commenced, and which further improved to 72% by mid December 2021. The majority of customer journeys were for leisure purposes, making up around three quarters of all journeys during the count period.

Northern continued to see the same factors as observed in 2020 shape its timetables and level of service in autumn 2021. These included the impact of COVID-19 on staff training, industrial relations and the changing patterns of customer demand, driven by increased hybrid working and greater leisure travel. Decisions on train services were made using data and insight and where possible we extended length of trains to meet demand within our existing fleet size. Lengthening trains are dependent on platform lengths which can limit number of carriages we can operate. Between mid-September and mid-December 2021, Northern saw customer journeys at 69% compared to pre-COVID-19 levels. The leisure market was a big driver of the recovery with 102% compared to pre-COVID-19, with busier Friday and weekend services.

With the removal of COVID-19 measures, Cross Country were able to remove social distancing and compulsory reservation practices from their services, thus increasing stock capacities, enabling higher loads on their services in autumn 2021 relative to autumn 2020. Further increases in capacity in autumn 2021 were evident through the deployment of 6 extra centre vehicles on Cross Country’s class 170 fleet on regional routes, and the gradual return to pre-COVID-19 timetable with increased services across regional routes.

Greater Anglia continue to roll out new stock allowing for a greater proportion of counts to now be covered by APC, with 745 and 755 data included for the first time. Where gaps exist, manual counts have been used to supplement data, giving good overall coverage. The timetable and stock formation over this count period has changed multiple times due to COVID-19 and the gradual rollout of 720 services. Total passenger capacity has increased throughout this count period across Greater Anglia services.

The autumn 2021 census covered a steady timetable for South Eastern services without significant changes to train times or lengths to adjust to Pandemic demand.  The exception to this being services formed of class 707 stock, some of which were cascaded into service during the Census period with some Networker stock used until sufficient 707s were available.  Government Guidance from September 2021 no longer included any guidelines on social distancing.  As such, all seating and capacity figures assumed “normal”, pre-COVID-19 crowding measures with no allowance for 1m and above social distancing in any of the capacity calculations. Patronage remained fairly constant throughout and was at around 49% of the equivalent pre-COVID-19 demand at both the start and end of the Census period.

London Overground operated normal scheduled train formations and a full normal service on all routes and reinstated night Overground services in November 2021. Customer recovery continued to trend upwards, achieving 72% passenger volume and 63% revenue versus pre-COVID-19 as of the end October 2021. This was achieved while improving performance with London Overground leading on PPM at 97.2% versus 93.0% industry average.

TfL’s service provision in the autumn  of 2021 was significantly different with 9-car class 345 services operating on the Anglia route for the first time while the number of class 315 services reduced significantly. TfL also introduced a new timetable between Shenfield and Liverpool Street where all trains stop at all stations.

The timetable in place for West Midlands Trains during the autumn 2021 census was an evolution of that used in the latter half of 2020. Capacity was delivered in a significantly different way with several routes using longer, less frequent services than had been the case during autumn 2019 and the early part of 2020. A notable change from autumn 2020 was the removal of social distancing measures meaning a return to normal seating and standing capacities plus the re-introduction of First Class on relevant routes from Monday 19 July 2021.

Since the low point in mid-April 2020, when West Midlands Trains passenger journey numbers plummeted to between 5 to 10% of normal levels (varying by route), passenger numbers recovered progressively so that by autumn 2021 the number of passengers stood at around 60% of the equivalent pre-COVID-19 levels. Growth continued reaching approximately 70% of pre-COVID-19 levels in early December before the discovery of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 and the associated introduction of UK Government measures. Figures, consequently, fell to circa 40% of pre-pandemic levels around Christmas 2021.

Technical information

Strengths and weaknesses of the data

The statistics on rail passenger demand and crowding are based on counts carried out by train operators of the numbers of passengers using their services, either using automatic counting equipment fitted to trains or manual counts carried out on board trains or at stations. While the statistics should be a reliable guide to the magnitude of passenger numbers at particular locations and at different times of day, a number of factors can affect these statistics.

Passenger numbers on individual train services fluctuate from day to day and may vary across the autumn period. This can have an impact on the aggregate statistics, depending on the sample of days each year on which passengers are counted. This particularly affects cases when counts are based on a small number of services or where services have only been counted a small number of times, as changes from year to year may reflect these fluctuations rather than a genuine trend. For the same reason, small differences in the crowding figures between routes or when comparing different years should be treated with caution.

Passenger counts can be subject to measurement errors. For example with manual counts there is a risk of human error leading to incorrect counts, particularly on busy trains. Load-weighing equipment calculates the passenger load by assuming an average weight per passenger, which may not always be representative of the passengers on every train, and all automatic counting equipment can sometimes develop faults.

The statistics are designed to represent a typical weekday during school term time in the autumn and may not be representative of other times of year, or on particular days of the week. They will also not reflect crowding seen on days when there was disruption. The autumn period is used because it is the time of year when commuter demand is generally at its greatest, but this will not necessarily be the case for all operators and on all routes, and crowding may be higher at other times of year or on particular days of the week in some cases.

The basis on which standing allowances for different types of rolling stock are calculated can vary between train operators, usually because of the types of rolling stock in their fleets and the types of passenger services they provide. The method for calculating them has also varied over time. This will have an impact on the PiXC figures for each operator.

Because some services include a standing allowance in their standard class capacity while longer distance services only include the number of standard class seats, the nature of PiXC is different in these cases. On services with no standing allowance it represents passengers having to stand for more than 20 minutes, whereas on services with a standing allowance, it represents passengers standing in cramped conditions.

More information about the methodology behind these statistics and factors that affect them can be found in the notes and definitions document that accompanies this statistical series rail statistics guidance.

Tables accompanying this release

Ten tables have been published alongside this release, 3 showing passenger number statistics and seven showing crowding statistics. The tables are listed below and can be found at the following link: statistical data sets - capacity and overcrowding

Passenger number statistics tables

Table number	Table title
RAI0201	City centre peak and all day arrivals by rail on a typical autumn weekday, by city: annual from 2010
RAI0202	City centre arrivals and departures by rail on a typical autumn weekday afternoon, by city and time band: annual from 2011
RAI0203	Central London arrivals and departures by rail on a typical autumn weekday afternoon, by city and time band: annual from 2011

Crowding statistics tables

Table number	Table title
RAI0209	Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday by city: annual from 2011
RAI0210	Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday on London and South East train operators’ services: annual from 1990
RAI0211	Passengers in excess of capacity (PiXC) on a typical autumn weekday by operator: London and South East train operators: annual from 2000
RAI0212	Peak rail capacity, standard class critical loads and crowding on a typical autumn weekday by city: annual from 2010
RAI0213	Peak rail capacity, standard class critical loads and crowding on a typical autumn weekday in London by terminal: annual from 2010
RAI0214	Peak crowding on a typical autumn weekday by city and train operator: annual from 2011
RAI0215	Peak crowding on a typical autumn weekday in London by terminal and train operator: annual from 2011

Acknowledgements

The Rail Statistics team at DfT would like to say thank you to colleagues in Train Operating Companies who have spent time collecting, processing, and checking data to be used in this statistical publication during challenging times.

Background notes

Further details about all the statistics in this report can be found in the notes and definitions.

The United Kingdom Statistics Authority designated these statistics as National Statistics in 2013, in accordance with the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 and signifying compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics. Designation can be broadly interpreted to mean that the statistics:

• meet identified user needs
• are well explained and readily accessible
• are produced according to sound methods, and
• are managed impartially and objectively in the public interest

Once statistics have been designated as National Statistics it is a statutory requirement that the Code of Practice shall continue to be observed. The continued designation was confirmed in October 2017: national statistics status of rail passenger numbers and crowding-statistics.

Details of Ministers and officials who receive pre-release access to these statistics up to 24 hours.

before release can be found in the pre-release access list.

Users and uses of these statistics

These statistics and the underlying passenger counts are used within Government and across the rail industry for a wide variety of purposes. Some of the main uses include:

• informing Government policy on rail, including decisions on infrastructure, station and rolling stock investment

• as part of the rail franchising process, informing the specification of new franchises and the models used in the assessment of franchise bids

• in the day to day running of train operating companies, including planning timetables and rolling stock deployment

• understanding and monitoring passenger demand and crowding

• validating models of passenger demand

A summary of feedback received from users in 2013 is published on the DfT rail statistics notes and guidance webpage.

Get in touch

We are always keen to hear how these statistics are used and would welcome your views on this publication. Comments and queries can be addressed to rail statistics.

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Media enquiries

Press Office News Desk
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Telephone: 020 7944 3021

Annex 1: Impact of Coronavirus (COVID-19) in 2020

Throughout the observed autumn 2020 period, various government measures were introduced to reduce the spread of the pandemic. These included lockdowns and social distancing policies. This led to reduced rail capacity as timetables were revised and less seating could be used. Some of these measures were at the local level, so areas of the country were impacted differently. The table below provides a breakdown of the measures in each of the 14 observed major cities in this publication and provides some context to impact on travel patterns during this period.

Birmingham    Local lockdown: 21 September to 14 October   Tier 2: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Brighton    Tier 1: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 2: 2 December to end of period

Bristol    Tier 1: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Cambridge    Tier 1: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 2: 2 December to end of period

Cardiff    Local lockdown: 22 September to 23 October   Circuit-breaker lockdown: 23 October to 9 November    Welsh national restrictions: 9 November to end of period

Leeds    Local lockdown: 21 September to 14 October    Tier 2: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Leicester    Local lockdown: 21 September to 14 October    Tier 2: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Liverpool    Local lockdown: 22 September to 14 October    Tier 3: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 2: 2 December to end of period

London    Tier 1: 14 October to 17 October    Tier 2: 17 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 2: 2 December to end of period

Manchester    Local lockdown: 22 September to 14 October    Tier 2: 14 October to 23 October    Tier 3: 23 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Newcastle    Local lockdown: 21 September to 14 October    Tier 2: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Nottingham    Tier 3: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period

Reading    Tier 1: 14 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 2: 2 December to end of period

Sheffield    Tier 2: 14 October to 24 October    Tier 3: 24 October to 5 November    National lockdown: 5 November to 2 December    Tier 3: 2 December to end of period