Quarterly bus statistics, England: October to December 2021
Published 30 March 2022
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About this release
This quarterly release covers local bus passenger journeys and fares. It provides the most up-to-date statistics for monitoring trends in the local bus sector.
This release relates largely to England, in line with the coverage of the Department for Transport (DfT) bus policy. Statistical tables that cover the whole of Great Britain are available online.
Quarterly passenger journey figures are based on data collected from a panel survey of the largest bus operators and are seasonally adjusted. The Local Bus Fares index is compiled from data provided by a representative sample of around 100 operators and Transport for London (TfL).
The number of local bus passenger journeys in England was 2.45 billion in the year ending December 2021, a 15% increase when compared with a year previous, this will be affected by differences in restrictions due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic over time.
In the year to December 2021, local bus fares in England increased by 0.9%, slower than the all items Consumer Prices Index rate of inflation (5.4%). The increase in local bus fares in England was largely driven by a 3.3% increase in London. In England outside London, local bus fares decreased by 0.6%.
Latest quarterly and year ending local bus passenger journeys (seasonally adjusted), Great Britain
| Local bus journeys | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year ending | December | Quarter | October to December | ||
| Area | Passenger Journeys (billions), 2021 | Percentage change compared to 2020 | Passenger Journeys (billions) 2021 | Percentage change compared to 2020 | |
| London | 1.29 | 15% | 0.38 | 48% | |
| English metropolitan areas | 0.51 | 17% | 0.15 | 62% | |
| English non-metropolitan areas | 0.65 | 16% | 0.18 | 57% | |
| England | 2.45 | 15% | 0.71 | 53% | |
| England outside London | 1.16 | 17% | 0.33 | 59% | |
| Scotland | 0.20 | 12% | 0.06 | 43% | |
| Wales | 0.04 | 13% | 0.01 | 61% | |
| Great Britain | 2.69 | 15% | 0.78 | 52% |
Local Bus Fares index change, December 2021, Great Britain
| Bus Fares Index | |
|---|---|
| Dec-2021 | |
| (compared with Dec-2020) | |
| London | 3.3% |
| English metropolitan areas | -1.6% |
| English non-metropolitan areas | 0.1% |
| England | 0.9% |
| England outside London | -0.6% |
| Scotland | 0.4% |
| Wales | 1.3% |
| Great Britain | 0.9% |
Comment on Coronavirus (COVID-19) impact
This publication covers data for the year ending December 2021, which coincides with the application of movement restrictions due to COVID-19 in Great Britain.
An indication of changes in bus passenger volume during this period can be found in separate datasets provided to monitor the use of the transport system during the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Figures are available throughout the period for Great Britain excluding London.
Figures for London are available. These figures come from a different source to this publication, but they indicate usage trends that are broadly in line with the quarterly passenger data. The release published by Transport for London (TfL) provides additional information on bus services during this period.
Local bus passenger journeys
The year ending December 2021 included around nine months during which movement restrictions had been implemented due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Chart 1 shows that the number of local bus passenger journeys in England outside London in the year ending December 2021 increased by 0.17 billion (17%) compared with the previous year, to 1.16 billion. Bus use in London increased by 0.16 billion passenger journeys (15%) to 1.29 billion.
Chart 1: Local bus passenger journeys (seasonally adjusted) in England outside London and London, year ending December 2005 to year ending December 2021 - BUS0106a
Chart 2 shows that when comparing October to December 2021 with the corresponding 3 months of 2020, bus use in London increased by 48%. Bus use in England outside London increased by 59% compared with the same quarter in 2020.
The decreases in passenger journeys in early 2020 followed the announcement of movement restrictions due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic starting in March 2020. Following the sharp decrease in passenger journeys observed in England in April to June 2020, there was a subsequent increase in July to September 2020 in line with the easing of restrictions. The number of passenger journeys remained broadly steady into October to December 2020 before decreasing slightly in January to March 2021, in line with the reintroduction of movement restrictions in early January 2021. The number of passenger journeys increased in April to June 2021 as movement restrictions were eased while following the road map out of lockdown and this increase continued in July to September 2021. Levels in October to December 2021 were similar, although this may have been impacted by additional restrictions toward the end of the year.
Chart 2: Local bus passenger journeys (seasonally adjusted) by metropolitan area status: England, quarterly from October to December 2005 to October to December 2021 - BUS0106a
Local bus fares
Local bus fares in England have increased by 0.9% in the past year to December 2021, slower than the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) (5.4%). Chart 3 shows that between 2016 and 2018, the increases in local bus fares and the CPI were relatively similar, but then diverged. The increase in local bus fares in England in the year to December 2021 was largely driven by a 3.3% increase in London. In England outside London, local bus fares decreased by 0.6%.
Chart 3: Percentage change in Local Bus Fares index and CPI: England and UK, quarterly since March 2011, current prices - BUS0415a
Between December 2005 and December 2021, bus fares have risen more in metropolitan areas (76.2%) than in non-metropolitan areas (63.6%) (Chart 4), while fares in London rose at similar levels up until 2016, before flattening to a total increase of 85.0% over the whole period. The all items CPI increased by 45.8% over the same period, meaning bus fares have risen in real terms.
Chart 4: Local bus index (at current prices) by metropolitan area status: England, from March 2005 - BUS0415a
Background Information
Statistical tables
Additional tables are available online as part of the bus statistics series. Passenger numbers can be found in BUS0103 (annual) and BUS0106 (quarterly). Bus fares index can be found in BUS0405 (annual) and BUS0415 (quarterly).
Bus usage
The number of bus passenger journeys (with each boarding of a bus counted as one journey) is the key measure of bus demand.
Seasonal adjustment
Estimates of the number of bus passenger journeys are seasonally adjusted. This removes the effects of seasonal factors and the arrangement of the calendar so that quarterly comparisons can be made.
Local passenger journeys in different areas
Figures for England are disaggregated into London, metropolitan areas (the six former metropolitan counties of Greater Manchester, Merseyside, South Yorkshire, Tyne and Wear, West Midlands and West Yorkshire) and non-metropolitan areas (covering shire counties and unitary authorities).
Local bus fares index
The percentage change in bus operator receipts from passengers as a result of any fare changes. These figures provide an estimate of the change in the average cost of bus travel to the passenger but not the actual fare levels paid.
A longer time series of annual figures is available in BUS0405, monthly inflation figures are published by the ONS with a detailed breakdown by category including bus and coach fares, rail fares and motoring costs. An annual summary of the ONS transport indices is available in transport expenditure (TSGB13).
Local bus fares in different areas
Bus fares in London are set by TfL. Outside London, fare changes will largely reflect the commercial decisions of bus operators, which in turn may reflect changes in public funding.
Data sources, strengths and weaknesses
Estimates of local bus passenger journeys are based on a quarterly panel of the 18 largest non-metropolitan operators, Passenger Transport Executives (for metropolitan areas) and TfL. Data from the quarterly panel is scaled to annual figures from the department’s main annual survey of over 500 public service vehicle (PSV) operators, and figures are then seasonally adjusted.
For October to December 2021, data was only received from 16 panel members, covering around 87% of the bus journeys made in GB. Quarterly figures are subject to revision due to the nature of the seasonal adjustment and scaling to annual figures. However, these will typically be minor and not affect overall patterns shown. Figures are also subject to revision if a member changes their methodology for collecting bus patronage data.
The quarterly local bus fares index is based on a sample survey of over 100 bus operators and TfL, who supply data each quarter. The index measures change in the ‘gross yield’. This is the change in passenger receipts (excluding concessionary fare reimbursement and subsidies from government), which would result from a fare change, assuming no change in passenger numbers. In total the operators selected cover over 90% of passenger receipts in Great Britain, and the sample design ensures operators in each type of area are adequately represented. The survey response rate is high, for the most recent survey 89% of the sample responded, which accounts for 88% of the weight in the calculation.
Data on actual fare levels are not collected. The index assumes no change in passenger behaviour and therefore may not reflect changes in the average fare actually paid (for example if passengers switch to a different ticket type, or choose not to travel, as a result of fare changes).
Users and uses of these statistics
Within DfT, quarterly bus statistics are used to inform bus policy decisions, for ministerial briefing and to answer public enquiries. Outside DfT, passenger journey figures are used to measure the overall health of the industry and often reported in the trade press. Bus fares data are used by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in calculating the CPI.
National Statistics
These statistics were designated as National Statistics in June 2012. The continued designation was confirmed in February 2013. National Statistics are produced to high professional standards set out in the Code of Practice for Statistics. They undergo regular quality assurance reviews to ensure they meet customer needs. Details of Ministers and officials who receive pre-release access to these statistics up to 24 hours before release is available.
Next update
A statistical release will now accompany data tables for each quarter. Quarterly bus statistics for January to March 2022 will be released in June 2022.
To hear more about DfT statistics publications as they are released please follow us on Twitter via DfTstats.
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