Modern Slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, March 2026
Published 9 April 2026
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This statistical bulletin provides a summary of the latest statistics on cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as of 31 March 2026.
Comprehensive data on National Referral Mechanism (NRM) referrals and decisions are published by the Home Office quarterly and annually. The next quarterly release will be published on 14 May 2026.
The data published here has been extracted from live operational databases. It is therefore provisional and may differ from other statistics published subsequently.
1. Cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on two grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery. There is currently a backlog of cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions which the government has committed to eradicate by December 2026. The backlog was at its highest at the end of 2022 but has consistently fallen since then. At the end of December 2025, it was less than a third of what it was at its peak, and it has continued to fall throughout 2026.
Figure 1: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA,IECA
Figure 1 shows that as of 31 March 2026, there were 4,726 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision; a 3% decrease compared to 28 February 2026 (4,867) and an 84% decrease from the peak of 29,275 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
There were 4,105 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Single Competent Authority (SCA); a 5% decrease compared to 28 February 2026 (4,303) and an 84% decrease from the peak of 25,934 recorded at the end of quarter 3, July to September 2022.
There were 621 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA); a 10% increase compared to 28 February 2026 (564), but an 82% decrease from the peak of 3,451 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
2. Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Timeliness of decisions is now measured by the average (median) time cases have been awaiting a conclusive grounds decision once a reasonable grounds decision has been issued and excludes reconsideration requests. For more information, please see the end of year summary 2025.
Figure 2: Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA,IECA
Figure 2 shows that as of 31 March 2026, the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision was 53 days, a decrease of 21% (14 days) when compared to the total of 67 days on 28 February 2026.
The average (median) age of SCA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 54 days, a decrease of 25% (18 days) when compared to the total of 72 days on 28 February 2026.
The average (median) age of IECA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 42 days, an increase of 11% (4 days) when compared to the total of 38 days on 28 February 2026.