Modern Slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, January 2026
Published 12 February 2026
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This statistical bulletin provides a summary of the latest statistics on cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as of 31 January 2026.
Comprehensive data on National Referral Mechanism (NRM) referrals and decisions are published by the Home Office quarterly and annually. The next quarterly and annual release will be published on 19 February 2026.
The data published here has been extracted from live operational databases. It is therefore provisional and may differ from other statistics published subsequently.
1. Cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on two grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery. There is currently a backlog of cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions which the government has committed to eradicate by December 2026. The backlog was at its highest at the end of 2022 but has consistently fallen since then. At the end 2025, it was over a third of what it was at its peak.
Figure 1: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Figure 1 shows that as of 31 January 2026, there were 5,152 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision; an 11% decrease compared with 31 December 2025 (5,758), and an 82% decrease from the peak of 29,275 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
There were 4,649 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Single Competent Authority (SCA); a 12% decrease compared with 31 December 2025 (5,292), and an 82% decrease from the peak of 25,934 recorded at the end of quarter 3, July to September 2022.
There were 503 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA); an 8% increase compared with 31 December 2025 (466), and an 85% decrease from the peak of 3,451 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
2. Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Given the quarterly variance in the average time to decision, the average (median) age of all cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions is the most accurate reflection of wait times.
Figure 2: Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Figure 2 shows that as of 31 January 2026, the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 82 days, a decrease of 12% (11 days) when compared to the total of 93 days on 31 December 2025.
The average (median) age of SCA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 86 days, a decrease of 12% (12 days) when compared to the total of 98 days on 31 December 2025.
The average (median) age of IECA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 45 days, a decrease of 10% (5 days) when compared to the total of 50 days on 31 December 2025.