Official Statistics

Modern slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, August 2026

Published 10 September 2026

This statistical bulletin provides a summary of the latest statistics on cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as of 31 August 2026.

Comprehensive data on National Referral Mechanism (NRM) referrals and decisions are published by the Home Office quarterly and annually. The latest quarterly release was published on 14 May 2026.

The data published here has been extracted from live operational databases. It is therefore provisional and may differ from other statistics published subsequently.

The methodology used to calculate the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision has been revised to provide a more accurate and complete figure. Consequently, these figures are not comparable with those published in previous bulletins. Further details will be included in the next publication of Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK.

1. Cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision

Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the HO on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. For more information, see published guidance for modern slavery. There is currently a backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision which the government committed to eradicate by December 2026. The backlog was at its highest at the end of 2022 but has mostly fallen since then. At the end of December 2025, it was less than a third of what it was at its peak, but it has risen slightly since April 2026. Nonetheless, the backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision is close to being eradicated, so the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision is soon expected to represent the working caseload in any given month. As such it will likely vary over time depending on system intake and throughput, which may result in small fluctuations month by month in the future.

Figure 1: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision

Source: SCA,IECA

Figure 1 shows that as of 31 August 2026, there were 5,948 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision; while this is a 13% increase compared to 31 July 2026 (5,258) it represents an 81% decrease from the peak of 31,101 cases recorded at the end of January 2023.

There were 5,253 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision following referral to the Single Competent Authority (SCA); an 11% increase compared to 31 July 2026 (4,738) and a 79% decrease from the peak of 24,640 SCA cases recorded at the end of December 2022.

There were 695 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision following referral to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA); a 34% increase compared to 31 July 2026 (520), and an 89% decrease from the peak of 6,578 IECA cases recorded at the end of February 2022.

2. Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision

Timeliness of decisions is now measured by the average (median) time cases have been awaiting a conclusive grounds decision once a reasonable grounds decision has been issued. The figure excludes reconsideration requests. For more information, please see the end of year summary 2025.

Figure 2: Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision

Source: SCA,IECA

Figure 2 shows that as of 31 August 2026, the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision was 69 days, a decrease of 10% (8 days) when compared to the average of 77 days on 31 July 2026.

The average (median) age of SCA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 68 days, a decrease of 12% (9 days) when compared to the average of 77 days on 31 July 2026.

The average (median) age of IECA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 75 days, an increase of 6% (4 days) when compared to the average of 71 days on 31 July 2026.