Modern slavery: NRM cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, April 2026
Published 14 May 2026
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This statistical bulletin provides a summary of the latest statistics on cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) as of 30 April 2026.
Comprehensive data on National Referral Mechanism (NRM) referrals and decisions are published by the Home Office quarterly and annually. The latest quarterly release was published on 14 May 2026.
The data published here has been extracted from live operational databases. It is therefore provisional and may differ from other statistics published subsequently.
1. Cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Individuals referred to the NRM receive decisions from the Home Office on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds and conclusive grounds. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery. There is currently a backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision which the government committed to eradicate by December 2026. The backlog was at its highest at the end of 2022 but has consistently fallen since then. At the end of December 2025, it was less than a third of what it was at its peak, and it has continued to fall throughout 2026. The backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision is close to being eradicated, and so the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision represent the working caseload in any given month and as such will vary over time depending on system intake and throughput. This may result in small increases in in some months.
Figure 1: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA,IECA
Figure 1 shows that as of 30 April 2026, there were 4,748 cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision; a less than 1% increase compared to 31st March 2026 (4,726) and an 84% decrease from the peak of 29,275 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
There were 4,168 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Single Competent Authority (SCA); a 2% increase compared to 31 March 2026 (4,105) and an 84% decrease from the peak of 25,934 recorded at the end of quarter 3, July to September 2022.
There were 580 cases awaiting conclusive grounds decision having been referred to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA); a 7% decrease compared to 31 March 2026 (621), and an 83% decrease from the peak of 3,451 recorded at the end of quarter 4, October to December 2022.
2. Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Timeliness of decisions is now measured by the average (median) time cases have been awaiting a conclusive grounds decision once a reasonable grounds decision has been issued and excludes reconsideration requests. For more information, please see the end of year summary 2025.
Figure 2: Average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision
Source: SCA,IECA
Figure 2 shows that as of 30 April 2026, the average (median) age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision having been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision was 51 days, an increase of 2% (one day) when compared to the total of 50 days on 31 March 2026.
The average (median) age of SCA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 51 days, a decrease of 4% (2 days) when compared to the total of 53 days on 31 March 2026.
The average (median) age of IECA cases in the system awaiting a conclusive grounds decision was 45 days, an increase of 13% (5 days) when compared to the total of 40 days on 31 March 2026.