Official Statistics

Modern slavery: National Referral Mechanism and Duty to Notify statistics UK, quarter 4 2025 - October to December

Published 19 February 2026

This statistical bulletin provides a summary and breakdown of the number of potential victims of modern slavery referred into the National Referral Mechanism (NRM) or via the Duty to Notify (DtN) between 1 October and 31 December 2025. Please refer to the data tables published alongside this bulletin for additional data. Raw data related to referrals from 2014 onwards is available from the UK Data Service. Future release dates for these statistics are published in the Government statistics release calendar.

Frequency of release: Quarterly
Home Office Responsible Statistician: Stuart Prince

1. Key points

• a total of 6,021 potential victims of modern slavery were referred to the Home Office (HO) from October to December 2025, a 6% decrease compared to the previous quarter (6,407) and a 9% increase compared to October to December 2025 (5,538)
• the number of referrals received was the second highest since the NRM began operating in 2009, second only to the previous quarter
• over three-quarters of all referrals (79%, 4,757) were sent to the Single Competent Authority (SCA) for consideration with the remainder (21%, 1,264) sent to the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA)
• potential victims from the UK (22%; 1,316), Eritrea (14%; 843) and Somalia (10%; 579) were the most frequently referred nationalities
• referrals for UK nationals were the highest in a single quarter since the NRM began
• a total of 6,346 reasonable grounds and 7,406 conclusive grounds decisions were issued this quarter; of these, 62% (3,948) of reasonable grounds and 73% (5,406) of conclusive grounds decisions were positive
• the number of conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter was the highest in a quarter since the NRM began
• there were 5,758 cases were awaiting a decision at end of December 2025, a decrease of 37% from the previous quarter (9,107) and of 80% from the peak recorded at the end of 2022 (29,275)
• the average age of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision at the end of December 2025 was 76 days, compared to 120 days at the end of the previous quarter and 627 days at the end of 2023
• the HO received 1,748 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process

Figure 1: Number of quarterly NRM referrals by competent authority, 2014 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability. The IECA took on new referrals from November 2021 onward.

2. Introduction

2.1 Modern slavery and the NRM

Modern slavery is a term that includes any form of human trafficking, slavery, servitude or forced labour, as set out in the Modern Slavery Act 2015. Potential victims of modern slavery in the UK who come to the attention of authorised first responder organisations are referred to the National Referral Mechanism (NRM).

Authorised first responder organisations include local authorities (LAs), specified non-governmental organisations (NGOs), police forces and specified government agencies. Adults (aged 18 or above) must consent to being referred to the NRM, whilst children aged 17 and under need not consent to being referred. Adults who were exploited as children can also be referred. As specified in section 52 of the Modern Slavery Act 2015, public authorities in England and Wales have a statutory duty to notify the Home Office (HO) when they encounter potential victims of modern slavery. This duty is discharged by either referring a child or consenting adult potential victim into the NRM, or by notifying the HO via the DtN process if an adult victim does not consent to enter the NRM.

Individuals referred to the NRM may receive decisions from the HO on 2 grounds: reasonable grounds, and conclusive grounds (figure 2 below).

2.2 Changes to the reasonable grounds test

Before 30 January 2023, the reasonable grounds test was whether the decision maker suspects but cannot prove that the individual is a victim of modern slavery. From 30 January 2023, that test was amended so that the decision maker must agree there are reasonable grounds to believe, based on objective factors, that a person is a victim of modern slavery. From 10 July 2023, the test was further amended, such that the test remains an objective one, whereby the decision maker must agree with the statement that there are “reasonable grounds to believe that a person is a victim of modern slavery”. This takes the victim’s account into consideration and any other relevant information, and considers whether, in the circumstances of the case, it is reasonable to expect supporting information to be available.

2.3 Introduction of disqualification requests

From 30 January 2023, disqualification requests may be made for individuals if they are deemed to have met criteria for disqualification from the NRM. These criteria may be based on either grounds of public order or bad faith. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision, and may be disqualified from the NRM system at any point thereafter. Public order disqualification decisions were paused from 31 July 2023 to 8 January 2024 while this policy was updated. Note that as of 23 December 2025, the HO has again paused decision making on public order disqualifications within the NRM until further notice. For more information, see the published guidance for modern slavery.

Following a positive reasonable grounds decision, a conclusive grounds decision may be made. A positive conclusive grounds decision indicates that, on the balance of probabilities, there is sufficient information to consider the individual is a victim of modern slavery.

Figure 2: Victim identification flowchart (simplified)

Source: Home Office

Notes:

1. The DtN is only open to adults in England and Wales (as opposed to the NRM which covers the UK). Consent is not needed for children to enter the NRM.
2. Decisions may be reconsidered, which may mean some cases are reopened after being closed. See further information on the reasons for accepting reconsideration requests.
3. Some cases may not follow this flowchart. For instance, some may be suspended, and others may be devolved pilot cases which can receive combined reasonable and conclusive grounds decisions.

2.4 Support for victims of modern slavery

Currently, adults with a positive reasonable grounds decision who are supported by the Modern Slavery Victim Care Contract (MSVCC) in England and Wales are entitled to accommodation where necessary, financial support and access to a support worker. Victims in MSVCC support with a positive conclusive grounds decision are entitled to a minimum of a further 45 days of support, whilst those with a negative decision receive 9 days of ‘move on’ support as they exit the service. See further information regarding the NRM process.

Trained specialists in the HO decide who is recognised as a victim of modern slavery. The Single Competent Authority (SCA) was launched in April 2019 and the Immigration Enforcement Competent Authority (IECA) was created in November 2021. Both competent authorities recognise victims of modern slavery for cases referred to the NRM across the UK. See further information regarding both competent authorities.

In June 2021, the HO launched a pilot programme across 10 LA sites, to test alternative models of decision-making for child victims of modern slavery and human trafficking. To enable further testing, 10 additional pilot sites were launched in early 2023. A further 7 sites joined in 2025, and one established site was expanded to incorporate neighbouring LAs. These latest sites went live in autumn 2025 and began making decisions from November 2025. The HO is working closely with LAs and stakeholders to monitor the pilot and continues to assess next steps. Decisions made by pilot areas, which are issued by the SCA, are included in the data used for this bulletin. An annex published in November 2025 details the devolved decision-making pilot for children for the year October 2024 to September 2025. See further information regarding the pilots.

3. National Referral Mechanism (referrals)

3.1 Overall

From October to December 2025, the NRM received 6,021 referrals of potential victims of modern slavery. This represents a 6% decrease in referrals compared to the preceding quarter (6,407) but a 9% increase compared to the same period a year ago (5,538 referrals made during October to December 2024).

There have been a number of changes which have collectively raised the profile of modern slavery since 2014. These are likely to have increased awareness of modern slavery and the NRM and, alongside potential increases in exploitation, may have driven the increase in overall referrals. However, it is not possible to point to a main driver due to the hidden nature of modern slavery.

3.2 Age group

The HO records demographic data about individuals referred into the NRM, as well as information about the exploitation they have potentially suffered. This includes the age at referral, as well as the age range within which their exploitation is reported as having occurred. Statistics on age at exploitation can be found in data tables 5 and 6.

Of all referrals made between October and December 2025, 70% (4,215) were adults at age of referral (compared to 72% in the previous quarter), whilst 30% (1,796) were children (compared to 28% in the previous quarter) (figure 3). The age at referral was unknown in 10 cases.

Figure 3: Number of NRM referrals by age group of referral, 2015 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. Excludes referrals where the age group at exploitation is unknown.

3.3 Location of exploitation

Potential victims may report that their exploitation has occurred either in the UK, overseas, or a combination of both. Overall, 39% (2,360) of all (adult and child) potential victims claimed that they were exploited exclusively in the UK, compared to 35% in the previous quarter, and 51% (3,094) claimed exclusively overseas exploitation, compared to 57% in the previous quarter (data table 3; figure 4).

Between October and December 2025, there were the highest number of referrals reporting exploitation exclusively in the UK since the NRM began, surpassing the previous record of 2,279 from January to March 2023.

Figure 4: Number of NRM referrals by location of exploitation, 2014 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes data pre-2014 due to data reliability.
2. There is no ‘unknown’ category post 2020 due to improvements in data collection.

For those reporting that their exploitation occurred in the UK, referrals may also name towns and cities where this is reported to have occurred. These are grouped into counties by the HO. Here, ‘counties’ refer to ‘lieutenancy areas’ (historic ceremonial county boundaries), which are the boundaries used because of the scale at which data are collected, as well as for the purpose of mapping. Further information can be found in the ‘Quality information’ section.

From October to December 2025, UK-based exploitation was most commonly reported to have taken place in Greater London (650). This was followed by the West Midlands (193) and Greater Manchester (154). Potential victims may identify several locations of exploitation in a single referral. As a result, county totals represent overlapping data and should not be combined.

Figure 5: Number of NRM referrals reporting exploitation in UK counties, 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Includes referrals which have reported exploitation in the UK, or a combination of the UK and overseas.
2. It is not advised to combine statistics for multiple counties as each referral may report multiple places of exploitation.
3. May not capture all places of exploitation if they are not recorded on referral forms.
4. Counties in yellow indicate 150 referrals or over.

For those reporting their exploitation occurred overseas, referrals may also name countries and regions. From October to December 2025, the overseas country where exploitation was most commonly reported was Libya (1,644). This was followed by Sudan (305) and Somalia (247). Potential victims may identify several locations of exploitation for in a single referral. As a result, county totals represent overlapping data and should not be combined.

Figure 6: Number of NRM referrals reporting exploitation in overseas countries

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Country borders do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official position.
2. Includes referrals which have reported exploitation overseas, or a combination of the UK and overseas.
3. It is not advised to combine statistics for multiple countries as referrals may report multiple places of exploitation.
4. May not capture all places of exploitation if they are not recorded on referral forms.
5. Countries in yellow indicate 250 referrals or over.

3.4 Gender

Overall, of the 6,021 potential victims referred between October and December 2025, 73% (4,415) were male and 27% (1,602) were female. This was consistent with previous quarters.

For adults (at age of referral), 70% (2,942) were male and 30% (1,271) were female; whilst for children, 82% (1,464) were male and 18% (330) were female (data table 4). This was consistent with previous quarters.

3.5 Exploitation type

There are a variety of ways potential victims can be exploited as set out in the modern slavery statutory guidance. From October 2019, the recording categories were changed, to include more types and combinations of exploitation. Statistics prior to this should therefore not be compared, and more information can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Overall, potential victims were most commonly referred for labour exploitation only, which accounted for 36% (2,180) of all referrals. While this held true for adults (at age of referral) (45%; 1,901), a different picture emerges for children, who were most often referred for criminal exploitation (50%; 902) (data table 4). See further information on types of exploitation.

Figure 7: Number of NRM referrals, by exploitation type and age at referral, October to December 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. First responders can enter data for unclassified exploitation in a free-text field; for statistical reporting, this field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’.
2. Less commonly reported exploitation types are grouped as ‘Other’ and a full breakdown is provided in data table 4.

Exploitation types typically have gendered patterns. Similar to previous quarters, from October to December 2025, males most often reported criminal (29%; 1,265) or labour exploitation (43%; 1,895), whereas females most often reported sexual exploitation (27%; 432).

Referrals may be flagged as ‘county lines’ cases by decision makers, which is most commonly a subset of criminal exploitation. County lines is a term used to describe drug gangs in large cities expanding their reach to small towns. Often, the gangs exploit vulnerable individuals to transport substances, and mobile phone ‘lines’ are used to communicate drug orders. See further information on county lines.

Between October and December 2025, 501 county lines referrals were flagged. They accounted for 8% of all referrals received (data table 19) and represented the same proportion of referrals as the previous quarter. The majority (76%; 381) were for male children (at age of referral).

Figure 8: Number of NRM referrals flagged as county lines, by age at referral and gender, 2017 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. County lines referrals were classified as a sub-type of labour exploitation prior to October 2019. Since January 2020, a ‘flag’ within the NRM digital casework system identifies county lines referrals.

3.6 Nationality

The UK works closely with international partners to prevent and reduce modern slavery to the UK. These efforts are supported by the Modern Slavery Fund, which seeks to raise global standards to reduce the impact of modern slavery on the UK. It funds programmes, including in Albania and Vietnam, that aim to strengthen government and civil society responses as well as reduce individual and community vulnerability to modern slavery.

There were 222 nationalities represented by referrals this quarter, which includes dual nationals as separate categories. Nationals from the UK accounted for the largest group – over one-fifth (22%, 1,316) of all potential victims (compared to 20% in the previous quarter). The second most commonly referred nationality was Eritrean (14%; 843) and the third was Somali (10%; 579) (data table 7).

The majority (74%; 973) of UK national referrals were children (at age of referral); while most Eritreans and Somalis were adults (90%, 758; and 84%, 486 respectively) (figure 9). Those potential victims for whom age at referral was not recorded are grouped as ‘not specified or unknown’.

Please note, a change to data recording from October 2019 means that NRM data reflects the dual nationality of potential victims in separate categories. To see total counts of a particular nationality, please refer to the data tables. Note these figures may be amended following initial publication as a potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral. Case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Figure 9: Number of NRM referrals for the most common nationalities of potential victims, 2014 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. There are separate categories for dual nationals.

3.7 Location of crime investigation

Upon receiving an NRM referral, the SCA determines the (initial) responsible geographic police force for investigation based on the information provided on the referral form and transfers the referral. Transfer between police forces can subsequently take place as they receive further information, which is reflected in the statistics. Previously, British Transport Police referrals were classed under England, but are now separate in the data tables.

As in previous quarters, most NRM referrals (91%; 5,462) were sent to police forces in England, with 4% (257) to Police Scotland, 2% (121) to Welsh police forces and 3% (168) to the Police Service of Northern Ireland (data table 3).

3.8 First responders

From October to December 2025, 57% (3,417) of referrals came from government agencies, compared to 62% in the previous quarter. Of these, most came from UK Visas and Immigration (56%; 1,914), an increase compared to the previous quarter (46%; 1,858) with 22% (756) from HO Immigration Enforcement, compared to 18% (728) in the previous quarter (data table 15; figure 10). UK border force accounted for 727 (21%) of referrals, a decrease compared to the previous quarter (34%;1,362).

Local authorities accounted for 22% (1,302) of referrals, mostly for children (at age of referral) (data table 18). This was the largest number of referrals from LAs in a single quarter, increasing 4% compared to the former record seen in the previous quarter (1,247).

Police forces and Regional Organised Crime Units (ROCUs) accounted for 18% (1,075) of NRM referrals from October to December 2025, compared to 15% in the previous quarter (data table 17). NGO and third-sector organisations accounted for 4% (227) of referrals (data table 16).

Figure 10: Number of NRM referrals by first responder types, October to December 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Excludes potential victims with an unknown age at referral.

4. National Referral Mechanism (decisions)

4.1 Reasonable grounds decisions

From October to December 2025, a total of 6,346 reasonable grounds decisions were issued. Almost two-thirds of these (62%) were positive. This is slightly down on the 65% seen in the previous quarter. The majority (5,015) were issued by the SCA with the remaining 1,331 issued by the IECA. Of SCA decisions, 69% (3,483) were positive, compared to35% (465) of reasonable grounds decisions made by the IECA (data tables 21 and 22).

The most commonly cited reason for the 2,398 negative decisions issued this quarter was that the referral had insufficient information to meet the standard of proof required (49%; 1,175). The second most common reason was that the referral did not meet the definition (39%; 940), and the third was that the referral was not credible (9%; 221) (data table 25).

Historically, the proportion of positive decisions had remained relatively stable in recent years, with around 9 out of every 10 referrals receiving a positive decision. However, from 30 January 2023 the threshold for a positive reasonable grounds decision was updated, which led to a reduction in the proportion of such decisions issued. On 10 July 2023, the threshold was revised once more. For further information see the published guidance.

Figure 11: Number of NRM positive and negative reasonable grounds decisions, 2014 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

Of the 6,346 reasonable grounds decisions issued this quarter, the proportion of positive reasonable grounds decisions was 54% for adults (at age of referral) and 84% for children (data table 20).

The average (median) time taken from referral to reasonable grounds decisions made during October to December 2025 across the competent authorities was 6 days, this was the same as the previous quarter (data table 26). For reasonable grounds decisions made by the SCA, the average time taken this quarter was 6 days, and the IECA took an average of 5 days (data tables 27 and 28, respectively).

Average wait times for reasonable grounds decisions had been increasing following the change in guidance for such decisions since 30 January 2023. They began to fall from October to December 2023 and returned to pre-guidance change levels from October to December 2024. Throughout 2025, they have remained stable (data table 26).

Decision-making times presented here are for cases which received a reasonable grounds decision in this period and do not reflect the waiting time of all cases within the system. Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the referral receipt and decision date, and do not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter.

In addition, cases where the decision-making is devolved to LAs as part of a pilot for children are included as SCA cases for these statistics. Decisions made as part of this pilot operate at different timescales, with guidance outlining that reasonable grounds decisions should be made no later than 45 days from the date the pilot area receives the referral. More information can be found in the published guidance.

4.2 Disqualifications

Introduced as part of the Nationality and Borders Act 2022 and implemented 30 January 2023, certain cases may be disqualified from the protections and support of the NRM on grounds of bad faith or public order. The framework for making decisions on disqualification is set out in the Statutory Guidance. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision, and could be disqualified from the NRM system at any point thereafter where the criteria is met.

These criteria may be based on either grounds of public order or bad faith. Individuals may only be disqualified after they have received a positive reasonable grounds decision, and may be disqualified from the NRM system at any point thereafter. Public order disqualification decisions were paused from 31 July 2023 to 8 January 2024 while this policy was updated. Note that as of 23 December 2025, the HO has again paused decision making on public order disqualifications within the NRM until further notice. For more information, published guidance.

From October to December 2025, 77 disqualification requests were made. All of these requests were made on the grounds of public order (data table 29).

A total of 67 of these requests became confirmed disqualifications. Of these, most (96%, 64) were on grounds of public order and 4% (3) were on grounds of bad faith (data table 32).

4.3 Cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions

The government has pledged to eradicate the backlog of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision by December 2026. As of the end of 2025, there were 5,758 cases which have been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision and are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision, which represents a 37% decrease compared to the preceding quarter and an 80% decrease compared to the peak in October to December 2022. Of these, 5,292 were SCA cases and 466 were IECA cases. The number of cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions has decreased in every quarter since October 2022 (data table 45).

Figure 12: Number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision 2022 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

The most meaningful measure of timeliness of decisions for victims of modern slavery is the average (median) time cases have been awaiting a conclusive grounds decision once a reasonable grounds decision has been issued. At the end of December 2025, this was 76 days, compared to 120 days at the end of the previous quarter and 627 days at the end of 2023. For SCA cases, the average age was 78 days and for IECA cases the average age was 37 days (data table 42).

This measure excludes reconsideration requests, see the ‘Revisions’ section for more details. This is because large outliers in the time some cases await a decision would unduly skew the average measure. Figures on timeliness, including reconsideration requests, using the mean average are, however, also included in the data tables.

4.4 Conclusive grounds decisions

From October to December 2025, 7,406 conclusive grounds decisions were issued, compared to 6,627 in the previous quarter and 5,176 over October to December 2024. This represents the highest number of decisions issued in any quarter since the NRM began operating, and follows the recruitment of additional decision makers by the competent authorities and significant productivity and efficiency efforts.

For those 7,406 conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter, almost three-quarters (73%) were positive. More specifically, the proportion of positive conclusive grounds decisions for adults (at age of referral) was 70% and 80% for children (data table 35).

For the 2,000 negative conclusive grounds decisions issued this quarter, the most commonly cited reason was that the referral had insufficient information to meet the standard of proof required (84%; 1670). The second most commonly cited reason for the negative conclusive grounds decisions made in this quarter was that the referral did not meet the definition (10%; 201) and the third was that the referral was not credible (6%; 111) (data table 38).

A total of 6,928 decisions this quarter were issued by the SCA and 478 by the IECA (data tables 36 and 37); 75% (5,164) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the SCA were positive and 51% (242) of conclusive grounds decisions issued by the IECA were positive.

Figure 13: Number of NRM positive and negative conclusive grounds decisions, 2014 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Based on the quarter in which the competent authority issued their decision.

For cases which received a conclusive grounds decision from October to December 2025, the average (median) time taken from reasonable grounds to conclusive grounds decision excluding cases which received a reconsideration request across the competent authorities was 186 days, compared to 512 days in the previous quarter (data table 39). Conclusive grounds decisions made by the SCA, as it addresses some of the oldest cases in the system, took longer on average (199 days) than IECA decisions (59 days, see data table 42).

Decision-making times are taken as the difference between the date of the reasonable grounds and the date of conclusive grounds decisions. It excludes cases which have been reconsidered; however, it does not exclude any periods of time during which referrals may be suspended, withdrawn or previously closed. Hence, actual average wait times will be shorter. See the see the ‘Revisions’ section. for more details on changes to the timeliness measure.

4.5 Reconsiderations

Decisions may be reconsidered after being issued by the competent authorities. This could be because additional evidence becomes available which, taken with all available evidence already considered, would be material to the outcome of a case. Alternatively, it might be due to specific concerns that a decision has not been made in line with published guidance. For more information, see the published guidance.

Reconsideration requests resulting in a positive outcome do not necessarily mean that the original decision was incorrect. In the majority of cases, additional information is provided to the HO which was not made available at the time of the original decision.

From October to December 2025, 426 reconsideration requests were made to the competent authorities. Of these, 301 were made to the SCA and 125 were made to the IECA. There were 210 reconsideration requests for reasonable grounds decisions and 216 for conclusive grounds decisions.

From October to December 2025, 83% of reconsidered reasonable grounds decisions received a positive outcome and 82% of conclusive grounds reconsiderations were similarly positive (data table 49). These outcomes may have resulted from reconsideration requests made before October 2025.

Both reconsideration requests and outcomes refer to the most recent instance where the competent authority has agreed to reconsider at each decision stage for an individual. Hence, an individual will only be shown to have a maximum of one reasonable grounds request and outcome, and one conclusive grounds or disqualification request and outcome.

Reconsideration requests may also be made for positive or ‘hybrid’ decisions, which are included in these statistics. A hybrid decision is where the potential victim has reported multiple incidents of exploitation, where at least one incident is accepted and one or more are not accepted. In a small number of cases, reconsideration data contains inaccurately recorded fields, so apply caution when using. For more information, see the ‘Quality information’ section.

5. Duty to Notify

Since 1 November 2015, specific public authorities in England and Wales must notify the HO via the DtN process of suspected adult victims of modern slavery that do not consent to enter the NRM. During this process, first responders may not collect the potential victim’s personal details.

From October to December 2025, the HO received 1,748 reports of adult potential victims via the DtN process (data table 52; figure 13), compared to 2,001 in the previous quarter. Of these:

• the most referred nationalities were Eritrean (25%; 439), Sudanese (8%; 134) and Albanian (8%; 133) (data table 53)
• the most common type of potential exploitation was labour (45%; 778), followed by not recorded or unknown (20%; 348) and sexual exploitation (14%; 237) (data table 54)
• government agencies made the highest number of DtN reports (72%; 1,251), followed by the police (24%; 418)
• of reports made by government agencies, most were submitted UK Visas and Immigration (UKVI, 47%; 814), UK Border Force (UKBF, 17%; 298) and Immigration Enforcement (IE, 7%; 131) (data table 55)

Figure 14: Number of DtN referrals, 2015 to 2025

Source: SCA, IECA

Notes:

1. Potential victims may be reported via DtN and subsequently also referred to the NRM at a later point in time, so these figures should not be combined due to potential double counting.

6. Quality information

6.1 Quality information

These statistics are produced in accordance with quality requirements of the Code of Practice for Statistics. It uses guidance published on the Government Analysis Function, which considers 5 aspects of quality:

• relevance
• accuracy and reliability
• timeliness and punctuality
• accessibility and clarity
• coherence and comparability

This section also discusses data sources, production and quality assurance of statistics.

Relevance

NRM and DtN statistics are used to build a picture of the potential scale of potential victims of modern slavery in the UK. As the data relates to potential victims identified by first responders and referred into the NRM and DtN, it does not capture all victims of modern slavery in the UK. There is likely to be a large number of unidentified potential victims given the hidden nature of modern slavery.

The statistics contribute to an understanding of the profile of potential victims referred to the HO. They are used by the government, NGOs and other organisations to monitor the impact of policy and operational decisions and challenge government on modern slavery policy.

The content of this publication is reviewed as to whether it meets the needs of users, and data is added accordingly. Further information can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Accuracy and reliability

Data is based on an extract from the database taken on 1 April 2025. NRM referral statistics and DtN report statistics are based on information provided on forms by first responders. First responders receive guidance on identifying and referring potential victims of modern slavery. In line with guidance provided, the competent authorities can seek additional information from stakeholders, where required, to ensure consistency of consideration and recording of outcomes.

The reported statistics might be different from previous bulletins. The data is extracted from a live case management system and the recorded data might be updated as new information comes to light.

For location of exploitation data, UK counties are grouped using the towns and cities reported by referrals. Here, ‘counties’ refer to lieutenancy areas, which are the boundaries used because of the scale at which the data is collected. The data boundaries used for overseas country of exploitation do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official position. Not all places of exploitation may be included if these are not provided on referral forms. If a referral has reported the same place multiple times, it is only counted once in the statistics. Because referrals may report multiple places, it is not advised to add the numbers for multiple UK counties and multiple overseas countries.

County lines cases are manually ‘flagged’ and added to cases by decision makers. The referral form does not explicitly require the first responder to highlight whether county lines is a feature of a potential victim’s exploitation. If the first responder does not provide the information to enable decision makers to identify county lines potential victims, they are not flagged on the system. Therefore, the data may not identify all county lines potential victims referred to the NRM. In addition, more information may come to light that a potential victim has been exploited through county lines which may be flagged at a later stage in the decision-making process. If these cases are subsequently identified, data will be updated to reflect this.

The data for reconsiderations has some fields which have been recorded inconsistently. The latest decision date has been found to be missing or inaccurate in a small number of cases. While cases with an inaccurate latest decision are included, those with missing dates have been excluded, in addition to reconsiderations from duplicate referrals, to ensure the data does not double count reconsiderations. As such, reconsideration data should be used with caution and may be subject to revision.

Overall referral breakdowns are reliable for data prior 2014, but more granular data was not quality assured at the time the data was collected. Most data is therefore presented from 2014 onwards.

All percentages in the bulletin are rounded to the nearest whole percentage point.

Timeliness and punctuality

NRM and DtN statistics are typically published less than 2 months after each quarter finishes. The exceptions are the October to December and annual statistics, which are both published 3 months after the year finishes due to the work required to quality assure and publish multiple publications. The statistics collection contains previous release dates and the Government statistics release calendar publishes upcoming dates.

Accessibility and clarity

From the annual publication for 2022, the bulletin has been published to reflect accessibility criteria outlined in guidance published by the Government Analysis Function. This includes editing bulletin text, formatting of data tables and converting graphs to more accessible formats. More information on accessibility changes can be found in the ‘revisions’ section.

Coherence and comparability

The NRM was set-up in 2009, though detailed breakdowns of statistics prior to 2014 are not made available for the reasons outlined in the ‘accuracy and reliability’ section. Broadly consistent data recording practises (with exception of nationality and exploitation type referrals statistics outlined in the ‘revisions’ section) allow for meaningful comparisons over time. The DtN began in 2015 and has similarly consistent data recording practises, enabling comparisons from the start of the dataset.

NRM and DtN datasets are the most extensive datasets on potential victims of modern slavery in the UK. Both datasets contain data collected through a range of first responders. NRM referrals are sent from across the UK, while DtN reports are sent from England and Wales. However, there could be overlaps between the 2 datasets. For example, a first responder could encounter a potential victim that is notified to the HO through a DtN and, subsequently, another first responder could encounter the same victim who then decides they want to be referred into the NRM. As the DtN is anonymised it is not possible to understand the overlap between the 2 datasets.

Other sources of data may not necessarily reflect trends shown in NRM and DtN statistics due to differing recording practises, scope and definitions of modern slavery.

Data source

NRM and DtN statistics are taken from an administrative HO case management system. It stores information from NRM referrals and DtN reports which are submitted from online forms sent by a variety of first responders.

Referral forms may be filled with varying amounts of information, which depends on what the first responder captures and how much the potential victim provides. If necessary, additional information can be sought by decision makers from the SCA and IECA, who make manual edits to data on the case management system.

Decision makers also add details, such as decision outcomes and decision dates, as well as make amendments to existing information such as the responsible police force, location of exploitation and biographic information. Cases are also flagged if they meet certain criteria, such as those involving county lines.

Decision makers may also merge cases together if they are identified as being for the same individual. They may also reopen cases which were closed, such as if a decision is being reconsidered.

As information can be manually updated on the live case management system, a small number of fields may be inaccurately recorded. These are corrected when identified.

Statistical production

This statistical bulletin has been produced to the highest professional standards and is free from political interference. It has been produced by statisticians working in the Home Office Analysis and Insight Directorate under the HO’s Statement of compliance with the Code of Practice for Official Statistics, which covers HO policy on revisions and other matters.

Data is extracted by Home Office Analysis and Insight from the case management system and is cleaned using reproducible and tested code. The code reformats data for statistical production, such as by grouping the data into categories (for example, first responder type and age groups) and standardises spelling. Further columns are also added, such as time to decision. Following this, the statistics are collated and outputted as a bulletin with accompanying graphs.

The Chief Statistician, as Head of Profession, reports to the National Statistician regarding all professional statistical matters and oversees all HO National Statistics products regarding the Code, being responsible for their timing, content and methodology.

Quality assurance

Data cleaning and grouping has been agreed and checked by the SCA. This is done using reproducible code, which is split into sections to first provide a cleaned dataset, and then produce the bulletin and graphs. The latter 2 are manually cross-checked with the dataset. Reproducible code also allows analytical colleagues to test and validate the production.

Data tables are manually produced using the cleaned dataset and are cross-checked with the bulletin and dataset. Data tables are then checked by the SCA for accuracy.

7. Revisions

Overall

The National Crime Agency (NCA) previously published NRM statistics prior to transferring NRM decision-making responsibilities to the SCA in April 2019 as part of the NRM Reform Programme. Publications prior to July 2019 can be accessed via the NCA website. With this transfer of responsibility, this data is now designated as Official Statistics and produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics.

Exploitation type statistics

Prior to October 2019, potential victims were recorded as having a single primary exploitation type, grouped into distinct categories:

• labour
• sexual
• domestic servitude
• organ harvesting
• unknown exploitation

Following changes to recording after October 2019, these categories changed to give a better picture of the exploitation experienced by potential victims. These changes split criminal exploitation from labour exploitation, and factor in cases where individuals have experienced multiple exploitation types.

Furthermore, ‘Unknown exploitation’ is no longer a category; instead, first responders can provide information for unclassified exploitation in a free-text box field. This field is grouped as ‘Not specified or unknown’. Apply caution when comparing statistics for exploitation type from October 2019 with previous quarters.

Nationality statistics

A potential victim’s nationality is based on information provided by the first responder upon referral; however, case workers may update this as further information is gathered.

Before October 2019, potential victims were recorded as having a single nationality. Following this, dual nationalities were recorded as separate categories, which has resulted in a greater number of categories which provide a more accurate representation. This quarter, there were 220 nationalities represented by referrals. Caution should therefore be applied when comparing statistics for nationality from October 2019 with previous quarters.

Police force identification

Police force data provided in data tables is based on the location of the police force that received the NRM referral. Each referral is screened against the criteria below to identify the responsible geographic police force. Once identified, the referral is transferred for action to the relevant Force Intelligence Bureau or stipulated point of receipt within the force.

Sometimes, further information is received and processed regarding a referral, which means it will be sent to a different police force. The updated statistics will reflect this. Criteria applied to identify the relevant police force are:

• the force has acted as first responder, or the referral indicates that the force is already involved in the recording/investigation of the potential modern slavery human trafficking offences
• the potential victim has been exploited within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad, or at an unknown location and the victim’s address at time of referral is within the force area
• the potential victim has been exploited abroad or at an unknown location and they have presented to another first responder within the force area

Bulletin

January to March 2022: data was first split out in the bulletin for referrals received and decisions made by the SCA and IECA, given it was the first full quarter since the IECA was set-up. Figure 1 was also changed to reflect this.

October to December 2022: the key findings were rationalised to show the most important points illustrated by the data.

Annual 2022: an annex was first added to this bulletin to highlight key drivers of referrals in the year and provide more detailed statistics.

April to June 2023: the ‘reasonable grounds decisions’ section was updated to include data on average time to issue reasonable grounds decisions, to match the ‘conclusive grounds decisions’ section. A new section on ‘disqualifications’ was also added, since it was the first full quarter where disqualifications for the NRM were considered.

July to September 2023: a new section on ‘reconsiderations’ was added with data on the number of reconsidered decisions. The ‘nationality’ section was also updated to outline the number of nationalities represented in the NRM.

October to December 2023: more context and background was added to better explain the data. A flowchart was added as figure 1, to show the NRM and DtN processes. Additionally, the ‘further information’ section was split out into 3 new sections: ‘quality information’, ‘revisions’ and ‘related publications’. These added more detailed information on quality, provided a better overview of changes to this publication and signposted to related published work.

January to March 2024: within the ‘location of exploitation’ section, data on UK county of exploitation and overseas country of exploitation has been added. These provide a more granular breakdown of exploitation reported in the UK and overseas.

April to June 2024: within the ‘conclusive grounds decisions’ section, data on the conclusive grounds decision backlog has been added. This provides information on cases that have been issued a positive reasonable grounds decision and are awaiting a conclusive grounds decision.

July to September 2024: within the ‘Reasonable grounds decisions’ section, data on the reasons behind a negative reasonable grounds decision has been added. Additionally, within the ‘Conclusive grounds decisions’, data on the reasons behind a negative conclusive grounds decisions has been added. These provide information on the reason why a negative decision has been issued by the decision maker.

Data tables

July to September 2021: tables were reformatted. Table 7 (referrals by UK country and age group) in previous updates was removed as this information is available in table 3. Tables 16 to 26 in previous updates (referrals received by police forces by nationality, exploitation type, first responder and age at exploitation) were removed. This information is now available in tables 4 to 9.

January to March 2022: tables were split out. Tables 15 and 16 (reasonable/conclusive grounds decisions by age group at exploitation) in previous releases was split into tables for SCA and IECA decisions. Reasonable grounds decision breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 20 to 22, whilst conclusive grounds breakdowns are provided as tables 35 to 37.

April to June 2022: tables were split out. Table 21 (average number of days taken to make conclusive grounds decisions) in past releases was split for SCA and IECA times. Timeliness breakdowns are therefore provided as tables 39 to 41.

October to December 2022: tables were split out and reformatted for accessibility. Table 1 (referrals by age group and location of exploitation) in past releases was split into tables 1 and 2 to more clearly show referrals split by competent authority. Several changes to formatting were made for accessibility, including adding consistent worksheet titles, adding a notes worksheet and reducing the use of merged cells.

April to June 2023: tables were added. Additional tables were added to show average time to reasonable grounds decision (table 26), as well as split by the SCA and IECA (tables 27 and 28 respectively). Moreover, tables 29 to 31 were added for disqualification requests, and tables 32 to 34 were added for confirmed disqualifications.

July to September 2023: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show reconsideration requests (tables 43 to 45) and outcomes (tables 46 to 48).

January to March 2024: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show age at referral (tables 3 to 4), referrals by UK county (table 12) and referrals by overseas country (table 13). Age at exploitation information has been replaced with age at referral, though is still included in tables 5 to 6. Moreover, tables 23 to 24 have been added to monitor the Sustainable Development Goals that relate to modern slavery.

April to June 2024: table was added. An additional table was provided to show the backlog for cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions having been issued positive reasonable grounds decisions (table 42).

July to September 2024: tables were added. Additional tables were provided to show the reasons behind a negative reasonable grounds decision (table 25) and the reasons behind a negative conclusive grounds decision (table 38)

Timeliness statistics

October to December 2025 and 2025 annual bulletin: the headline timeliness measure in the bulletin was revised. Previously, this measure reflected the time between referral receipt and the conclusive grounds decision date. However, as the number of cases awaiting a conclusive grounds decision decreases, cases where a reconsideration request has been accepted now form a larger share of decisions or cases pending a conclusive grounds decision. Since reconsideration requests can be made within 30 days of the original decision (or longer in some circumstances), continuing to include these cases would potentially distort the timeliness measure.

The updated measure therefore provides a more accurate indication of the time taken by Competent Authorities to reach a conclusive grounds decision following a positive reasonable grounds decision. Data for the previous measure will still be available in the accompanying tables.

8. Related publications

Latest and previous NRM and DtN statistical releases can be found in the National Referral Mechanism statistics collection.

Raw NRM data used for statistical releases is published on UK Data Service.

Ad-hoc publication of Additional statistics related to modern slavery was published in October 2025 containing statistics on the backlog of cases awaiting conclusive grounds decisions.

For statistics on the number of small boat arrivals with NRM referrals, see the Irregular migration to the UK statistics collection.

Research on modern slavery referrals for people detained for return after arriving in the UK on small boats was published in March 2023.

Ad-hoc analysis on modern slavery referrals from asylum, small boats and detention cohorts was published in May 2023.

Statistics and analysis of the devolved decision-making pilot for child victims of modern slavery was published in November 2025

Statistics on children referred to the Independent child trafficking guardianship service were published in August 2024.

Offences and charges data for modern slavery is published in the police recorded crime statistics collection.

Prosecutions statistics for modern slavery-flagged crimes in England and Wales are published by the Crown Prosecution Service in their data summaries.

Sentencing data for modern slavery offences in England and Wales is published by the Ministry of Justice in their Criminal Justice System statistics.

Feedback and enquiries

We are always looking to improve the accessibility of our documents. If you find any problems, or have any feedback, relating to accessibility, or general questions regarding this publication, please email us NRMStatistics@homeoffice.gov.uk

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