Official Statistics

Migrant journey: 2023 report

Published 23 May 2024

1. Introduction

This release looks at how migrants’ leave status changes as they journey through the UK’s immigration system.

The report looks at the number of migrants granted leave in the UK each year, and their status at the end of each subsequent year until their journey ends. An individual’s status may be one of 3 broad categories:

Valid leave to remain - these individuals have valid leave to remain in the UK for a limited period. This may be in the category they started their journey in, or in a new category.

Indefinite leave to remain - these individuals have been granted permission to remain in the UK indefinitely (for example being granted settlement or citizenship).

Expired - these individuals leave has expired. They are required to leave the UK before their leave expiry data.

This report also includes analysis on the proportion of visas for which the individual is known to have arrived in the UK. Not all arrivals are recorded on the system (for example people travelling via the Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland may not be included in the data). Data relating to what people do when their leave expires is not included in this release, and work is ongoing to resolve data issues which prevent this. See section ‘about the data’ for more details.

Our intention is to provide a measure of individuals who have an in-time departure from the UK (as previously published in ‘Statistics relating to exit checks’. Due to ongoing data issues, we have not been able to include analysis on departures as part of this report, but we are looking to publish data in the future once improvements have been implemented. Additional details can be found in the ‘update on statistics relating to exit checks’ section.

What is a migrant journey?

A migrant journey in this data set begins when someone who did not hold leave in the previous 12 months is either granted leave to enter the UK or applies for asylum in the UK. Leave to enter the UK may be either an entry clearance visa or resettlement. Only asylum applications which have received any grant outcome are included.

An individual may remain in the UK for the period in which the leave allows. They may extend their ‘journey’ beyond that leave date either in their existing leave category (for example, work or study) or in a new category, by applying for further leave.

A journey in this data set ends when an individual’s leave expires, and they have no subsequent period of leave in the next 12 months. If an individual is granted leave within 12 months of their previous period of leave expiring, they continue in their existing journey.

If an individual is granted new leave more than 12 months after their previous leave expired, a ‘new journey’ begins. In this dataset, the number of ‘new journeys’ reported in a year will be fewer than the number of visas granted, because if a visa is granted within 12 months of previous leave expiring it will not be counted as a ‘new journey’.

Figure 1: Flow chart showing a migrant journey

2. Overall trends

The analysis in this section focuses on those initially granted leave since 2008. When referring to the proportion of people who held a certain status after a given number of years, the analysis will only include those for whom enough time has passed for them to have held leave for that length of time. For example, when looking at people’s status 5 years after their journey began, this will exclude those whose journey began in 2019 or later as their journey will not yet have reached 5 years. The statistics quoted relate to main applicants and dependants, unless otherwise stated.

Which routes do people most commonly arrive on?

1.26 million journeys began in 2023. This was slightly fewer than the 1.28 million in 2022 but a 76% increase compared to 2021 when travel was still affected by the COVID-19 pandemic.

The majority of journeys by foreign migrants coming to the UK begin on study and work routes. Previously, around half of new journeys have been on study routes each year, this decreased to 43% and 42% in 2022 and 2023 respectively. Around a third of journeys typically started on work routes, although this proportion increased to 44% in 2023. Between 2008 and 2020 around 10% of journeys were started on family routes each year, a figure which dropped to around 5% in more recent years. Typically, less than 5% of new journeys are started on asylum routes each year.

How do people’s leave status’ change over time?

Of the 390,486 people who began journeys in 2018, 40% still had leave to remain in the UK 5 years later at the end of 2023 - 28% holding limited leave to remain (a proportion that has increased year on year from 18% for those who started their journey in 2011) and 12% with indefinite leave to remain (ILR). The remaining 60% had expired leave and are expected to have left the UK.

These proportions vary for different types of leave. While most journeys are started on study and work routes, a relatively small proportion of workers and students go on to get indefinite leave to remain (ILR), whereas the majority of family and asylum cohorts go on to get ILR.

One-third (34%) of students who came to the UK to study between 2011 and 2018 held valid leave 3 years after their initial grant, implying around two-thirds were expected to have left the UK when their studies finished. The proportion who still held valid leave 3 years later rose in 2019 to 39% and again in 2020 to 57% of students, making the 2020 cohort of students the first where the majority continued to hold leave after 3 years. After their first 3 years, one-fifth (19%) of the 2020 student arrivals were still studying, while one-third (32%) had switched to a work route, with the remaining 6% switching to other routes (mainly BN(O) and family).

Relatively few students receive ILR, but some go on to work in the UK before leaving. Less than 1% of students had obtained ILR after 5 years, increasing to nearly 10% after 11 years (most having moved into work or family routes first). It is too early to say whether recent changes to the immigration system, such as the introduction of the Graduate route, will impact migrants’ behaviours. Additional information on foreign students moving into work following their studies has been published in the Home Office report ‘Analysis of migrants use of the Graduate route’.

Work visa holders, if they stay in the UK, typically remain on work routes before their leave expires, or they go on to get ILR. At the end of 2023, 23% of workers who had started their journey 5 years earlier, continued to hold valid leave to remain and 15% of Work visa holders had obtained ILR. For those who had started on work routes 10 years earlier, 17% had obtained ILR at the end of 2023, the same as the previous year. This varies by type of work, with the ‘Worker’ category (which includes skilled work) closely aligned to the overall trend, while unsurprisingly few of those with ‘Temporary Worker’ visas go on to receive ILR (see the ‘work’ section for more details).

Figure 2: Immigration status at end of 2023 of people initially granted leave in 2018, by initial visa type

Source: Migrant Journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. Percentages on the left do not sum to 100% as the initial categories of ‘Dependants joining or accompanying’ and ‘Asylum’ are excluded from the chart.

Across the major routes (study, work and family), figure 2 shows that although most new journeys in 2018 were from people granted study visas, most of those people held no further leave after 5 years. Conversely, those starting journeys on family routes were most likely to hold further leave or have been granted settlement.

In contrast to work and study routes, those initially granted leave on family and asylum routes are very likely to go on to get ILR.

Of the 39,376 journeys started on family routes in 2018, 43% had ILR after 5 years. This increases to 75% for those starting on family routes 10 years prior to 2023. Most remained on the family route before getting ILR. Changes in 2012 to the eligibility period for settlement from 2 years to 5 years for those on the family route have meant that people coming to the UK for family reasons after the change, are typically taking longer to get ILR than those coming before the change.

The majority of those granted leave following an asylum application get ILR soon after they become eligible (typically after 5 years). Of those granted leave following a 2017 asylum application, 44% had ILR 6 years later, at the end of 2023. 87% of people who were granted leave following an asylum application in 2013, had obtained ILR 10 years later. There is some difference between those granted ‘refugee permission’ and those granted discretionary, exceptional, and UASC leave. The majority of those granted ‘refugee permission’ go on to get ILR (71% had ILR after 7 years for those granted leave after applying 2016). In contrast just 25% of those granted other leave had ILR 7 years after applying in 2016.

Who is granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR)?

Figure 3: People granted settlement in 2023 by initial leave type

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. The ‘Other’ category contains grants of settlement to: dependants joining or accompanying; visas for immediate settlement; EEA family permits; grants of non-asylum protection, grants of leave outside the Immigration Rules, grants of discretionary leave, grants of private life; and other small miscellaneous categories.

The number of people granted settlement in recent years will reflect the number of migrants coming to the UK in previous years, and the routes on which they came.

Of the 124,482 people granted settlement in 2023, 27% started their journey on the ‘family’ route (despite accounting for less than 10% of ‘new journeys’ each year). This reflects the fact that people coming for family reasons are more likely to seek to remain in the UK - over 80% of people coming on family routes typically go on to get ILR.

31% of those granted settlement in 2023 started on a ‘work’ route (over two-thirds of whom were on a ‘Worker’ visa). The work route typically accounts for around a third of ‘new journeys’ each year. Of those workers who sought to remain in the UK indefinitely, most (89%) remained in a work route before getting settlement, however 11% changed route first, mainly into the ‘family’ route (for example, by marriage).

13% of those granted settlement in 2023 started on a ‘study’ route (despite students accounting for around half of ‘new journeys’ each year). This reflects the fact that, historically, relatively few students seek to remain in the UK indefinitely and therefore, go on to get ILR (around 10%). Of those students who do seek to remain, most switch to another route before getting settlement. 48% of those granted settlement in 2023 switched to a ‘work’ route and 30% to a ‘family’ route. Only 5% were still on a ‘study’ route immediately prior to receiving settlement.

10% of those granted settlement in 2023 had started as an asylum seeker, with most gaining settlement soon after they become eligible. Over 80% of those on asylum routes go on to get ILR.

Figure 4: Category immediately prior to being granted settlement, by category in which the journey started, for those granted settlement in 2023

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D02

Notes:

1. Individuals who were in their ‘initial category’ prior to being granted settlement did not necessarily remain in the category for the entire period. Some may have switched to another category before switching back. Others may have moved to a different route within their initial category (for example, from one type of work to another).
2. ‘Category prior to settlement’ relates to the type of leave someone had immediately before being granted settlement.
3. Categories less than 3% are not labelled on the chart.

3. Study

Data in this section relates to those who initially entered the UK on a sponsored study visa either as main applicants or dependants. Short-term study visas (which permit people to travel to the UK for short periods of up to 11 months) are excluded from this analysis.

How many students arrive in the UK?

Of the 529,311 student journeys starting in 2023, 99% had a recorded arrival.

How long do students remain in the UK?

Of the 179,931 people whose journey started on a Sponsored study visa (hereafter referred to as the ‘study cohort’) in 2018, 22% still held valid or indefinite leave to remain at the end of 2023 (5 years later):

• 8% remained on a Sponsored study route
• 10% had switched to a Work route, including 4% to the Graduate route
• 4% held another category of leave
• less than 1% had indefinite leave to remain

This was the highest proportion having leave to remain 5 years after arrival since the 2010 cohort. The proportion was generally stable at 17% to 18% between 2012 and 2016 following the 2012 immigration rule changes, before rising to 20% for 2017.

The recent increase may be in part due to students switching to the Graduate route and other work visas, with 10% of the 2018 cohort in work routes 5 years later (4% in the Graduate route), compared with 3 to 4% for cohorts between 2011 and 2015. This coincided with a slight drop in the proportion of students who had extended their studies over the 5 years, a proportion which fell from 11% for the 2011 cohort to 8% in the 2018 cohort.

Figure 5: Proportion of students who held leave after 3 and 5 years, by year of initial study grant

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Historically, most students’ journeys finished at the end of their studies. Of those starting their studies between 2011 and 2018, around a third continued to hold valid leave after 3 years (decreasing to around 20% after 5 years). However, more recent student arrivals appear to be more likely to remain in the UK beyond their studies – 57% of students starting their studies in 2020 held valid leave after 3 years. (See figure 5) The recent Home Office report titled ‘Analysis of migrants use of the Graduate route’ provides further analysis. It is too early to say whether these students will remain in the UK permanently, or whether they are just staying longer.

Figure 6: Leave status after 5 years of people who started their journey on the Sponsored study route¹ between 2007 and 2018

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. Sponsored study and pre- points-based system equivalents. Excludes Short-term study visas.
2. Categories less than 6% are not labelled on the chart.
3. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

The proportion of students with valid leave 5 years after their journey started fell from 24% in 2007 to 18% in 2012, but more recently had begun to rise (to 22% for 2018 arrivals) and given the recent trends following the introduction of the Graduate route this percentage is likely to rise further in subsequent cohorts.

The composition of students coming to the UK can also impact the overall proportion staying long-term. For example, Chinese students (who appear less likely than other nationalities to stay in the UK long-term) accounted for 12% of the ‘study cohort’ in 2007, but 40% of the 2017 cohort. 13% of Chinese nationals in the 2018 ‘study cohort’ had valid leave 5 years later, compared with 28% for all other nationalities.

Of those whose journey began on a sponsored study visa in 2012, after 10 years, around 1 in 10 (10%) were still on the study route with 36% having switched to work and 24% to family routes.

Figure 7: Category of leave of people whose journey started on a sponsored study visa since 2007, who continued to hold valid leave to remain (excluding ILR)

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Figure 7 shows the category of leave over time for students, it is based on all historic cohorts of students and will not reflect recent changes in student behaviour.

How many students get indefinite leave to remain (ILR)?

As study is not a direct route to settlement, students become eligible for settlement in one of two ways. They may switch to a different route, such as work or family, and meet the additional residency requirements for settlement on that route. Alternatively, they will become eligible for settlement after 10 years continuous leave on any combination of routes under the long residence rules.

Figure 8: Category of leave immediately prior to settlement for those starting their journey on a sponsored study visa, by year of settlement

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D02

Notes:

1. Categories less than 4% are not labelled on the chart.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

4. Work

Data in this section relates to those who initially entered the UK on a work visa either as main applicants or dependants.

How many workers arrive in the UK?

In 2023, 550,724 journeys began with a grant of a Work visa, 45% higher than the previous year (379,178). This included:

• 461,485 Worker visas
• 63,063 Temporary worker visas
• 8,211 Investor, business development and talent visas
• 17,965 Other work visas and exemptions

Across all work routes and of the journeys starting in 2023, 98% had a recorded arrival.

How long do workers remain in the UK?

Of the 139,250 people whose journey started on a Work visa (hereafter referred to as the ‘work cohort’) in 2018, over one third (38%) still held valid or indefinite leave to remain at the end of 2023 (5 years later). This figure includes:

• 19% who remained on a Work visa
• 4% who had switched to a different category
• 15% who had been granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR)

Of the 2018 ‘work cohort’ 62% had expired leave after 5 years. As might be expected, this varied by the type of work visa. 86% of those on Temporary worker visas had expired leave after 5 years, compared with 52% of those on the ‘Worker’ and 23% on ‘Investor, business development and talent’ routes.

Figure 9: Leave status after 5 years (at the end of 2023) for people starting their journey on work routes in 2018, by type of work

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. ‘Investor, business development and talent’, Worker and Temporary worker totals include pre-points-based system equivalents.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
3. The ‘Other work visas and exemptions’ category includes European Community Association Agreement (ECAA) businessperson, domestic workers in private households, UK Ancestry visas, routes that are now closed (but under which people have existing leave).

Most (98%) aged 17 and under are dependants accompanying someone else on a Work visa, such as their parents. Those aged 17 and under included in work routes in 2018 were the age group most likely to hold valid leave (30%) or indefinite leave (19%) to remain after 5 years, compared to 22% and 14% respectively for those aged 18 and over. This also suggests that work migrants who bring a family with them are more likely to stay in the UK long term.

Figure 11 shows that for each ‘work cohort’ between 2011 and 2016, over 70% of people had expired leave 5 years later. This has fallen slightly, and was 62% for the 2018 cohort. This is likely due, in part, to an increase in the proportion of work visa holders in the ‘Worker’ category, from 47% in 2011 to 66% in 2018. People coming on the ‘Worker’ route are more likely to remain in the UK long-term than those in ‘Temporary worker’ and ‘Other work visas and exemptions’ categories, as seen in Figure 10. Additionally, the length of time people hold valid leave on the ‘Worker’ route has increased in recent years (14% of the 2011 cohort held valid leave after 5 years compared to 28% for the 2018 cohort).

Figure 10: Leave status after 5 years of people who started their journey on a work route¹ between 2008 and 2018

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

There has also been a sharp decrease in the proportion of people with expired leave, who had started on a work visa 3 years earlier, across all work categories. This was 52% and 46% in 2021 and 2022 respectively, and fell to 32% in 2023. This would suggest that people coming to work in the UK in more recent years have been staying longer and potentially more will remain permanently.

Of those starting their journey in a work category since 2008 who had valid leave to remain (excluding ILR) after 5 years, 83% remained in a work category. After 10 years, 41% remained in a work category and 34% had switched into a family route.

How many workers get indefinite leave to remain?

Most workers become eligible for settlement after 5 years residency in the UK. Figure 11 shows that of the 2018 work cohort, 15% had been granted ILR after 5 years.

This varies significantly between those coming for skilled jobs and temporary workers: 13% of people in the ‘Worker’ category had been granted ILR after 5 years, compared with less than 1% for ‘Temporary workers’. The ‘Investor, business development and talent’ route had the largest proportion reaching ILR after 5 years at 38%.

Of all those granted indefinite leave to remain in 2023 (124,482), 31% began their journey on a work route (69% of whom were in the ‘Worker’ category). For this cohort the majority (53%) were granted their Work visa in 2018, with many people applying for settlement as soon as they were eligible after 5 years.

Most workers remain in their initial category before getting settlement. Of those granted settlement in 2023 who started their journey on a work route, 89% were still on a work route when granted settlement. Only 8% had switched to a family route before getting settlement and 3% into other routes.

The proportion of workers who had been granted settlement after 5 years differs by type of work. Those on the Temporary worker route and those coming as Intra-company Transfers (ICTs) will not have a direct route to settlement. Table 1 shows those coming on the former Tier 2 General (skilled work) categories are the most likely to have settlement after 5 years (52%) compared with the ICT and Temporary work categories where almost none have settled in the UK .

Table 1: Journeys staring on work routes in 2018 by leave status in 2023

Type of work	Journeys	Expired (%)	Valid leave (%)	Settlement (%)
Worker visas	86,643	52%	28%	20%
Intra-company   Transfer	50,867	71%	29%	0%
Tier 2 General	19,435	25%	23%	52%
Other Worker	382	50%	23%	27%
Worker dependants	15,959	25%	31%	44%
Temporary work	34,980	86%	14%	0%
Other work	17,627	64%	16%	19%

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01 and underlying datasets

Notes:

1. Other work includes ‘investor, business development and talent’ visas and ‘other work visas and exemptions’
2. Other Worker includes ministers of religion and sportspeople

5. Family

Data in this section relates to those who initially entered the UK on a family visa either as main applicants or dependants.

How many people arrive in the UK on family visas?

There were 67,723 journeys started with a grant on the family route in 2023, 45% greater than in 2019.

Of the journeys starting in 2023, 98% had a recorded arrival, which is consistent with pre-pandemic years.

How long do people remain in the UK on family routes?

Of the 39,376 people whose journey started on a Family visa (hereafter referred to as the ‘family cohort’) in 2018, almost 9 out of 10 (88%) still held valid or indefinite leave at the end of 2023 (5 years later):

• 44% remained on a Family visa
• 2% had switched to a different category of visa
• 43% had been granted indefinite leave to remain

This pattern is broadly consistent over previous cohorts, with the majority of those who start their journey on the family route remaining on the family route until either their leave expires, or they go on to get ILR. Of the 2018 ‘family cohort’ those who had not got ILR, or expired leave 5 years later, 96% remained on the family route.

12% of the 2018 ‘family cohort’ had expired leave after 5 years reflecting the fact that most people coming on a family route intend to remain in the UK long-term.

For those arriving between 2008 and 2011, a little over 70% of those starting their journey on a Family visa had ILR within 5 years (many within 3 years). Following changes to the Immigration Rules in 2012, which increased the eligibility period for settlement from 2 years to 5 years for those on the family route, the proportion getting settlement within 5 years fell from 75% for the 2011 cohort to 18% for the 2013 cohort. It has remained above 10% since (apart from for the 2015 cohort – many of whom became eligible for ILR during the COVID-19 pandemic and may have delayed applying for ILR). Figure 12 shows that the leave status for those arriving on family routes after 5 years, remains unchanged for the 2018 cohort compared to the 2017 cohort.

Figure 11: Leave status after 5 years of people who started their journey on a family route between 2008 and 2018

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

How many people on the family route get indefinite leave to remain?

Those who arrive on a Family visa are much more likely to go on to get settlement than those coming on work and study routes.

Of the 124,482 people granted settlement in 2023, 27% (33,041) started their journey on a family route (despite the family route typically accounting for just 10% of new journeys each year). This proportion has remained broadly consistent since 2019. 70% began their journeys in 2017 or 2018. This suggests many on the family route apply for settlement soon after they become eligible. Most (97%) of the ‘family cohort’ remain in the family category before getting settlement.

6. Asylum

Data in this section relates to those granted leave following an asylum application.

Someone in the UK may claim asylum if they believe they face serious threat to their life or freedom in their home country. They are claiming to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention. This section includes analysis of those who have been granted leave following an asylum application (the leave may be ‘refugee permission’ or another form of leave). It does not consider those who were refused asylum or are still awaiting the outcome of their asylum application. It also does not include those who arrive as refugees on resettlement schemes, who will have been granted a right to remain in the UK on arrival.

Some individuals who claim asylum may start their journeys on another route (for example as a student) and subsequently apply for asylum while in the UK. Such individuals will be included in the category relating to their initial leave and not included in this section (unless more than 12 months has elapsed between their initial leave expiring and them applying for asylum).

In previous editions of the migrant journey report, the start of a journey for asylum applicants was the date of the latest outcome of their application. In this report, the start of a journey is the date the asylum application was lodged to better reflect the time asylum seekers spend in the UK immigration system.

How long do refugees remain in the UK?

Of the 20,928 people whose journey started with an application for asylum in 2018, at least 96% still held valid or indefinite leave at the end of 2023 (after 5 years), of which;

• 80% remained on the leave they were granted following their asylum claim
• 4% switched to other routes (mainly Family)
• 12% had been granted indefinite leave to remain

‘Refugee permission’ is granted to people who have lodged an asylum claim and are recognised as refugees. The majority of people granted refugee permission go on to get ILR.

18,551 people whose journey started in 2018 following an asylum application were granted ‘refugee status’ (89% of the total). Most of those (83%) still had leave as a refugee at the end of 2023 but at least 12% had been granted settlement. Around 2% had switched to another category of leave, and 3% had expired leave.

Some people who claim asylum may not meet the criteria of a refugee and will therefore, not be granted refugee status. In some instances, they may be granted another type of leave.

2,377 people (11% of the total) whose journey started with a grant of leave following an asylum application in 2018 were granted another type of leave. Most of those (79%) still held valid leave at the end of 2023, with more than half (51%) still in the asylum route, 22% had switched to the family route and 7% to other routes. One-tenth (10%) had been granted settlement and 11% had expired leave.

Figure 12: Immigration status of people granted refugee permission following an asylum application from 2007 onward

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. Categories less than 3% are not labelled on the chart.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Figure 13: Immigration status of people granted other leave following an asylum application from 2007 onward

Source: Migrant journey detailed datasets; MJ_D01

Notes:

1. Categories less than 4% are not labelled on the chart.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

How many people on asylum routes get indefinite leave to remain?

Of the 124,482 people granted settlement in 2023, 10% started their journey on an asylum route, of which;

• 9% were initially granted refugee permission
• 1% were initially granted other leave

Most (91%) people that started their journey on an asylum route who were granted settlement in 2023, remained on an asylum route until getting ILR. 3% had switched to family and 7% to other routes before being granted ILR.

Of those granted settlement in 2023, 11% were on an asylum route immediately prior to settlement. 84% of those started their journey on an asylum route, while 12% started on a student route. The remaining 4% were split between work, family and other routes.

Over the last 10 years, 1 in 8 (13%) people granted settlement started their journey with an asylum application.

7. About the data

This release looks at how migrants’ leave status changes as they journey through the UK’s immigration system. It includes data for European Economic Area (EEA) migrants and non-EEA migrants. As EEA migrants had freedom of movement prior to the UK leaving the EU, and were therefore not required to apply for a visa before coming to the UK, there are relatively few EEA nationals in the data before 2021. As this analysis looks at changes over time, most of the findings relate to non-EEA nationals.

The report includes 2 types of analysis:

1. Forward-look – this looks at migrants who were initially granted a visa in a given year and looks at their leave status in subsequent years. See detailed datasets MJ_D01 for the underlying data.
2. Backward-look – this looks at migrants who were granted settlement in a given year and looks at the visa they initially used to come to the UK. See detailes datasets MJ_D02 for the underlying data.

If an individual is granted new leave more than 12 months after their previous leave expired, a ‘new journey’ begins. The number of ‘new journeys’ in a year will be fewer than the number of visas granted because if a visa is granted within 12 months of previous leave expiring it will not be counted as a ‘new journey’.

The length of a ‘journey’ relates to the time in which an individual had valid leave to enter and remain in the UK. This is not the same as the amount of time an individual has been in the UK. An individual may leave the UK before their leave expires. Similarly some individuals may remain in the UK after their leave expires, either illegal (as an ‘overstayer’), or while awaiting the outcome of another application (for example an asylum application).

The report refers to people granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR). This relates to individuals who have been granted settlement or British citizenship (either additionally or alternatively to settlement). Where the report talks about people granted settlement, it refers only to grants of settlement and does not include grants of citizenship though some of those granted settlement will have gone on to be granted citizenship at a later date.

Where does the data come from?

The data used in this report come from a range of Home Office (HO) systems. It uses data matching to bring together information on a person’s immigration records (such as an entry clearance visa, or an in-country extension of leave) and travel records (such as an arrival into, or departure from, the UK). This allows us to understand how people interact with the UK immigration system, and how their immigration status changes over time.

The systems used to produce this data are designed for operational purposes. Due to limitations in the data, they cannot be used to provide a definitive view of a person’s status at an individual level. They do provide a reasonable view at the aggregate level (see ‘what are the limitations of the data?’ below for more details).

What are the limitations of the data?

Data input: as with all administrative data, there will be a small number of cases where data is missing or has been input incorrectly.

Data matching: despite the system having a robust data matching process, it will not have a 100% match rate. There are several reasons why records relating to an individual may not be correctly matched. For example, dual nationals may use different documents for different interactions with HO systems – such records may not be matched to the same person. Conversely, 2 individuals with similar personal details may be incorrectly identified as the same person, for example family members with similar names, nationalities and dates of birth (particularly twins).

Coverage gaps: The system does not have 100% coverage of people entering and leaving the UK. As there is no border control in the Common Travel Area (CTA) between the UK and Ireland, the system will not pick up travel through this route. This means that an individual could enter the UK from Ireland and not be counted as an arrival in the data, or leave the UK to Ireland and not be counted as a departure.

Although these limitations will impact the leave status assigned to each individual to a small extent, they will have a large impact on the analysis that draws upon travel information. Specifically:

• analysis on the proportion of people who have arrived on a visa in each year; these figures should be considered a minimum number of arrivals
• analysis on the number of people who departed before their leave expired; these figures should be considered a minimum number of departures

As a result, the data should not be used to give a definitive view on the number of people who did not use their visa, or the number of people who did not depart once their visa expired.

An update on statistics relating to exit checks

It was our intention to provide a measure of individuals who have an in-time departure from the UK, previously published as part of the annual statistics relating to exit checks. There have been a number of changes to Home Office systems, and changes to immigration rules, that have impacted the data used to produce the exit checks reports. It is important that we fully understand the impact of these on the statistics and that data issues are addressed and understood to ensure the published statistics are robust. Due to ongoing data issues arising from these changes, we have not been able to include analysis on departures as part of this report. For example, issues have been identified around the matched data not correctly identifying in-time applications for further leave and therefore the statistics incorrectly show a person as having remained in the UK without extending their permission. We are working to address these issues with the intention of producing this analysis in future reports.

Other information

The ‘Migrant journey: user guide’ provides further details on this topic including definitions used, how figures are compiled, data quality and issues arising from figures based on data sourced from an administrative database.

The trends seen in this release reflect changes in the levels of immigration over time as well as policy and legislative changes. Details of these can be found in  ‘Policy and legislative changes affecting migration to the UK: timeline’ published alongside the Immigration system statistics quarterly release.