Official Statistics

Migrant journey: 2022 report

Published 25 May 2023

1. Introduction

This release looks at how migrants’ leave status changes as they journey through the UK’s immigration system.

The report looks at the number of migrants granted leave in the UK each year, and their status at the end of each subsequent year until their journey ends. An individual’s status may be one of 3 broad categories:

• valid leave to remain: these individuals have valid leave to remain in the UK for a limited period; this may be in the category they started their journey in, or in a new category

• indefinite leave to remain: these individuals have been granted permission to remain in the UK indefinitely (for example, being granted settlement or citizenship)

• expired: these individuals leave has expired and they are required to leave the UK before their leave expiry date

This report includes analysis on the proportion of visas for which the individual is known to have arrived in the UK. Not all arrivals are recorded on the system (for example, people travelling via the Common Travel Area between the UK and Ireland may not be included in the data). Data relating to what people do when their leave expires is not included in this release, work is ongoing to resolve data issues which prevent this. See section ‘about the data’ for more details.

What is a migrant journey?

A migrant journey begins when someone is granted leave to enter (or remain in) the UK having not had any leave in the previous 12 months. This could be in several forms, such as when an individual is granted:

• an entry clearance visa (for example, to study, work or stay with family in the UK)
• refugee status on a resettlement scheme
• refugee status or another form of leave following an asylum application

An individual may remain in the UK for the period in which the leave allows. They may extend their ‘journey’ beyond that leave date either in their existing leave category (such as work or study) or in a new category, by applying for further leave.

A journey ends when either:

• an individual is granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR). This includes grants of ‘settlement’ and ‘citizenship’. This gives the individual the right to live, work and study in the UK for as long as they like
• an individual’s leave expires, and they have no subsequent period of leave in the next 12 months. If an individual is granted leave within 12 months of their previous period of leave expiring, they continue in their existing journey

If an individual is granted new leave more than 12 months after their previous leave expired, a ‘new journey’ begins. The number of ‘new journeys’ in a year will be fewer than the number of visas granted because if a visa is granted within 12 months of previous leave expiring it will not be counted as a ‘new journey’.

Figure 1: Flow chart showing a migrant journey

2. Overall trends

The analysis in this section focuses on those initially granted leave since 2007. When referring to the proportion of people who held a certain status after a given number of years, the analysis will only include those for whom enough time has passed for them to have held leave for that length of time. For example, when looking at people’s status 5 years after their journey began, this will exclude those whose journey began in 2018 or later as their journey will not yet have reached 5 years. The statistics quoted relate to main applicants and dependants, unless otherwise stated.

Which routes do people most commonly arrive on?

Since 2007, almost half of new journeys have been on the study route, with a third on work routes. In contrast, 8% of new journeys have been on the family route and 4% on the asylum route. A relatively small proportion of workers and students go on to get Indefinite Leave to Remain (ILR) while the majority of the family and asylum cohorts go on to get ILR.

Table 1: Immigration status after 5 and 10 years for those starting their journey since 2007, by initial leave type

Initial leave type	Proportion of new journeys since 2007	ILR after 5 years	Valid leave after 5 years	Expired leave after 5 years	ILR after 10 years	Valid leave after 10 years	Expired leave after 10 years
Study	48%	1%	20%	79%	8%	8%	85%
Work	33%	13%	14%	73%	22%	2%	76%
Family	8%	65%	24%	11%	84%	4%	13%
Asylum	4%	52%	39%	9%	87%	5%	7%
Other	8%	42%	13%	45%	53%	3%	44%

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

How do people’s leave status’ change over time?

Of all those whose journey began since 2007 and 2017, 19% continued to hold limited leave to remain 5 years after their journey began, and 14% held indefinite leave to remain (ILR). The remaining 67% had expired leave and should have left the UK within 5 years of coming. However, this varies by type of leave.

The majority of students leave the UK after their studies finish, and workers typically come to work in the UK for a few years before leaving. Around 50% of students and workers had valid leave (either temporary or indefinite) within 3 years of their journey starting, falling to less than 30% after 5 years.

Workers typically remain on work routes before either their leave expires, or they go on to get ILR. 13% of workers had ILR after 5 years, increasing to over 20% after 9 years. This varies by type of work, with the ‘worker’ category (which includes skilled work) closely aligned to the overall trend, while relatively few ‘temporary workers’ go on to get ILR (see the ‘work’ section for more details).

Relatively few students go on to get ILR, but some go on to work in the UK before leaving – less than 1% of students had ILR after 5 years, increasing to around 10% after 11 years (most having moved into work or family routes first). Between 2 and 7 years after initially coming to the UK as a student, 5% to 8% had moved into work routes.

Figure 2: Immigration status of people who started their journey on sponsored study routes since 2007, by years since their journey started

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Figure 3: Immigration status of people who started their journey on work routes since 2007, by years since their journey started

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Notes:

1. ‘Initial leave’ relates to the individual being in the same broad category (work, study) as they were in when they started their journey. In some instances, an individual may have moved sub-category (for example, from one type of work to another).
2. ‘Other leave’ relates to the individual being in a different broad category to when they started their journey (for example, a student moving into a work category).
3. The charts include all journey’s starting between 2007 and 2022. Zero to one year since the journey started includes all years; one to 2 includes 2007 to 2021 (because not enough time has passed for the 2022 cohort); and so on until 15 to 16 years, which includes 2007 only.

In contrast to work and study routes, those initially granted leave on family and asylum routes are more likely to go on to get ILR. Nearly half of those who started on the family route had ILR within 5 years of their journey beginning (increasing to over 80% within 8 years). Most remained on the family route before getting ILR. Changes in 2012 to the eligibility period for settlement from 2 years to 5 years for those on the family route have meant that people coming to the UK for family reasons after the change, are typically taking longer to get ILR than those coming before the change.

The majority of those granted leave following an asylum application get ILR soon after they become eligible (typically after 5 years). Over half of those granted since 2007 had ILR within 6 years, increasing to 80% within 8 years. There is some difference between those granted ‘refugee permission’ and those granted other types of leave. The majority of those granted ‘refugee permission’ go on to get ILR (95% had ILR after 6 years). In contrast just 24% of those granted other leave had ILR after 6 years (increasing to over two-thirds after 10 years).

Figure 4: Immigration status of people who started their journey on family routes since 2007, by years since their journey started

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Figure 5: Immigration status of people who started their journey on the asylum routes since 2007, by years since their journey started

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Notes:

1. ‘Initial leave’ relates to the individual being in the same broad category (family, protection) as they were in when they started their journey. In some instances, an individual may have moved sub-category (for example, from one type of leave to another).
2. ‘Other leave’ relates to the individual being in a different broad category to when they started their journey.
3. The charts include all journey’s starting between 2007 and 2022. Zero to one year since the journey started includes all years; one to 2 includes 2007 to 2021 (because not enough time has passed for the 2022 cohort); and so on until 15 to 16 years, which includes 2007 only.

Who is granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR)?

Of those granted settlement in 2022, 25% started their journey on the ‘family’ route (despite accounting for around 10% of ‘new journeys’ each year). This reflects the fact that people coming for family reasons are more likely to seek to remain in the UK – over 80% of people coming on family routes typically go on to get ILR.

Twenty-two per cent of those granted settlement in 2022 started on a ‘work’ route (over two-thirds of whom were on a ‘worker’ visa). The work route typically accounts for around a third of ‘new journeys’ each year. Of those workers who sought to remain in the UK indefinitely, most (87%) remained in a work route before getting settlement, however 13% changed route first, mainly into the ‘family’ route (for example, by marriage).

Twelve per cent of those granted settlement in 2022 started on a ‘study’ route (despite students accounting for around half of ‘new journeys’ each year). This reflects the fact that relatively few students seek to remain in the UK indefinitely and therefore, go on to get ILR (around 10%). Of those students who do seek to remain, most switch to another route before getting settlement. Forty-one per cent of those granted settlement in 2022 switched to a ‘work’ route and 35% to a ‘family’ route. Only 7% were still on a ‘study’ route immediately prior to receiving settlement.

Eighteen per cent of those granted settlement in 2022 had started as an asylum seeker, with most gaining settlement soon after they become eligible (typically after 5 years). Over 80% of those on protection routes go on to get ILR.

Figure 6: Category immediately prior to being granted settlement, by category in which the journey started, for those granted settlement in 2022

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D02, Home Office

Notes:

1. Individuals who were in their ‘initial category’ prior to being granted settlement did not necessarily remain in the category for the entire period. Some may have switched to another category before switching back. Others may have moved to a different route within their initial category (for example, from one type of work to another).
2. ‘Category prior to settlement’ relates to the type of leave someone had immediately before being granted settlement.
3. Categories less than 3% are not labelled on the chart.

3. Study

Data in this section relate to those who initially entered the UK on a sponsored study visa either as main applicants or dependants. Short-term study visas (which permit people to travel to the UK for up to 11 months) are excluded from this analysis.

How many students arrive in the UK?

Of the 555,500 journeys starting in 2022, 99% had a recorded arrival. This is higher than for journeys starting in 2020 (96%) and 2021 (98%) but similar to before the pandemic when more than 99% had arrivals. During 2020 and 2021 there were restrictions on travel resulting from the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, leading to lower arrival rates.

Before the pandemic, most students arrived within 7 days of their visa start date. Since 2020 students have tended to arrive slightly later after their visa start date, with the median time to arrival being 12 days for the 2020 cohort, 16 days for 2021 and 17 days for 2022. Around 2% of journeys in 2020 had a first recorded arrival more than a year after their visa start date (compared with 0.2% in previous years).

The majority (55% to 63%) of students first arrive in September or October of each year, in line with when most students start their academic courses. Since 2020, a greater proportion of students have had visas starting in December and January, up from 9% in 2017 to 19% in 2022. Many students with visas starting in December will not arrive until the following year.

How long do students remain in the UK?

Of the 166,200 people whose journey started on a Sponsored study visa (hereafter referred to as the ‘study cohort’) in 2017, either as a main applicant or a dependant, 20% still held valid or indefinite leave to remain at the end of 2022 (5 years later):

• 9% remained on a Sponsored study route
• 8% had switched to a Work route
• 2% had switched to a Family route
• 1% held another category of leave
• Less than 1% had indefinite leave to remain

Of the 2017 ‘study cohort’, 54% had expired leave within 3 years of their journey starting. This increased to 80% within 6 years, indicating that most students come to study and do not subsequently apply for permission to remain in the UK indefinitely, even if they initially extend their studies.

People aged 17 and under made up 12% of the 2017 ‘study cohort’ but were more likely to continue holding valid leave after 5 years (44%) compared to those aged 18 and over (17%). This is likely because most of these children come to study at schools, rather than universities, and therefore stay for a longer period to complete their education. Additionally, people coming to the UK as a family group may be more likely to remain in the UK long-term than those coming without dependants.

20% of the 2017 ‘study cohort’ held valid leave after 5 years. This was slightly higher than the 2012 to 2016 cohorts (17% to 18%), but lower than cohorts prior to 2011 (22% to 27%). The recent increase may be in part due to students switching to the graduate route – 8% of the 2017 cohort were in work routes 5 years later (4% in the graduate route), compared with 3-4% for cohorts between 2011 and 2015. This coincided with a slight drop in the proportion of students remaining in study routes after 5 years from 12% for the 2011 cohort to 9% in the 2017 cohort.

The Graduate route, introduced on 1 July 2021, allows eligible students to stay in the UK for 2 or 3 years to work or look for work after completing their studies. Although open to students regardless of course start date, the 2020 cohort is the first for which students of any course length could transfer directly to the graduate route and the first who would have widely known about the route prior to applying to come to the UK to study. More than one in 6 (18%) of the 2020 student cohort and 7% of the 2021 cohort were on the graduate route at the end of 2022. It is too early to tell what students will do after their graduate visa expires.

Figure 7: Leave status after 5 years of people who started their journey on the Sponsored study route¹ between 2008 and 2017

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Notes:

1. Sponsored study and pre- points-based system equivalents. Excludes Short-term study visas.
2. Categories less than 6% are not labelled on the chart.
3. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

The fall between 2007 and 2012 in the proportion of students with valid leave 5 years after their journey started, followed a series of changes to the Immigration Rules for students since 2007. This included restrictions on students’ bringing dependants and changes to how students apply for leave after their studies. The composition of students coming to the UK can also impact the overall proportion staying long-term. For example, Chinese students (who appear less likely than other nationalities to stay in the UK long-term) accounted for 12% of the ‘study cohort’ in 2007, but 38% of the 2017 cohort. 12% of Chinese nationals in the 2017 ‘study cohort’ had valid leave 5 years later, compared with 25% for all other nationalities.

Of those whose journey began on a sponsored study visa in 2012, who continued to hold valid leave to remain (excluding ILR), 62% remained on the study route after 5 years and 19% had switched to a work route (predominantly a ‘worker’ route, which includes skilled work). After 10 years, around one in 10 (10%) were still on the study route with most having switched to family (36%) or work (26%) routes.

Figure 8: Category of leave of people whose journey started on a sponsored study visa since 2007, who continued to hold valid leave to remain (excluding ILR)

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

How many students get indefinite leave to remain (ILR)?

As study is not a direct route to settlement, students will become eligible for settlement in one of 2 ways. They may switch to a different route, such as work or family, and meet the residency requirements for settlement on that route. Their time as a student will not typically count towards these requirements. Alternatively, they will become eligible for settlement after 10 years continuous leave on any combination of routes under the long residence rules.

Of those starting their journey on a Sponsored study visa between 2007 and 2012, 5% had been granted settlement within 10 years. This increased to 10% within 12 years.

Most students switch into another route before being granted settlement. Of the 133,100 people granted settlement in 2022, 18% started their journey on the study route. However, only 5% of those were on the study route immediately prior to getting settlement. Forty-one per cent had switched to a work route (predominately a ‘worker’ route) and 34% had switched to a family route.

Figure 9: Category of leave immediately prior to settlement for those starting their journey on a sponsored study visa, by year of settlement

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D02, Home Office

Notes:

1. Categories less than 4% are not labelled on the chart.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

4. Work

Data in this section relate to those who initially entered the UK on a work visa either as main applicants or dependants.

How many workers arrive in the UK?

In 2022, 380,000 journeys began with a grant of a work visa, more than twice as many as in 2019. This included:

• 287,100 ‘worker’ visas issued (of which 99% arrived)
• 64,900 ‘temporary worker’ visas (of which 95% arrived)
• 6,000 ‘investor, business development and talent’ visas (of which 98% arrived)
• 22,400 ‘other work visas and exemptions’ (of which 86% arrived)

Across all work routes and of the journeys starting in 2022, 97% had a recorded arrival, the same proportion as for 2021. This was higher than the 93% in 2020 following the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, but similar to before the pandemic, when 97% also had a recorded arrival in each year from 2016 to 2019. The proportion of journeys without a known arrival has been consistently very low, and is higher for people travelling for temporary or short-term work than the main skilled ‘worker’ visas.

In general, people arriving on a work journey arrive within 2 weeks of their visa start date. Between 2016 and 2019 most workers had arrived within 7 to 9 days. This increased after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic to 13 days for 2020, 12 days for 2021 and 15 days for 2022.

How long do workers remain in the UK?

Of the 127,400 people whose journey started on a Work visa (hereafter referred to as the ‘work cohort’) in 2017, almost one third (32%) still held valid or indefinite leave to remain at the end of 2022 (5 years later). Of these:

• 17% remained on a Work visa
• 3% had switched to a different category
• 12% had been granted indefinite leave to remain (ILR)

Of the 2017 ‘work cohort’ 48% had expired leave within 3 years. This increased to 68% after 5 years. However, as might be expected, this varied by the type of work visa. 87% of those on temporary worker visas had expired leave after 5 years, compared with 59% and 29% of those on the ‘Worker’ and ‘Investor, business development and talent’ routes respectively.

Figure 10: Leave status at the end of 2022 of people starting their journey on work routes in 2017, by type of work

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Notes:

1. ‘Investor, business development and talent’, Worker and Temporary Worker totals include pre- points-based system equivalents.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
3. The ‘Other work visas and exemptions’ category includes: European Community Association Agreement (ECAA) businessperson; domestic workers in private households; UK Ancestry visas; and routes that are now closed (but under which people have existing leave).

Most (98%) people aged 17 and under are dependants accompanying someone else on a Work visa, such as their parents. In comparison 19% of adults were dependants. People aged 17 and under issued Work visas in 2017 were the age group most likely to hold valid leave (27%) or indefinite leave (17%) to remain after 5 years, compared to 19% and 11% respectively for those aged 18 and over. This indicates that Work migrants who bring children with them are more likely to stay in the UK long term.

Figure 11 shows that for each ‘work cohort’ between 2011 and 2016, around three-quarters had expired leave 5 years later. This fell slightly for the 2017 cohort, which could reflect an increase in the proportion of workers in the ‘worker’ from 47% in 2011 to 60% in 2017. People coming on the ‘worker’ route are more likely to remain in the UK long-term than some other work categories.

Figure 11: Leave status after 5 years of people who started their journey on a work route¹ between 2008 and 2017

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Note:

1. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Of those starting their journey in a work category since 2007 who had valid leave to remain (excluding ILR) after 5 years, over 90% remained in a work category. After 10 years, 43% remained in a work category and around a quarter had switched into a family route.

How many workers get indefinite leave to remain?

Most workers become eligible for settlement after 5 years residency in the UK and around 13% of those whose journeys began between 2007 and 2017 had been granted ILR after 5 years, reaching a little under a quarter (23%) after 10 years.

This varies by category of work. 12% of people in the ‘worker’ category had been granted ILR after 5 years, compared with less than 1% for ‘temporary workers’. The ‘Investor, business development and talent’ route and ‘other work visas and exemptions’ had a larger proportion reach ILR after 5 years (39% and 17% respectively), although these categories are relatively small.

Of those granted an initial work visa between 2007 and 2012 (more than 10 years ago), 15% had been granted ILR after 5 years. This increased to around 20% after 8 years. The trend for those on ‘worker’ routes broadly aligns with the overall trend. Those on ‘temporary’ worker routes were less likely to get ILR, with only 4% having done so after 10 years. In contrast, more than half of those on the ‘investor, business development and talent’ route had ILR within 7 years of their leave starting.

Of all those granted indefinite leave to remain in 2022, just over one-fifth (22%) started their journey in a work route (over two-thirds of whom were in the ‘worker’ category). This cohort were most likely to have been granted their Work visa in 2017, with many people applying for settlement as soon as they were eligible after 5 years.

Most workers remain in their initial category before getting settlement. Of those granted settlement in 2022 who started their journey on a work route, 87% remained in a work route. 11% had switched to a family route before getting settlement and 2% had switched into other routes.

The proportion of workers who had been granted settlement after 5 years differs by type of work. Those on the temporary worker route and those coming as Intra-company Transfers (ICT)^{[footnote 1]} will not have a direct route to settlement. Table 2 shows those coming on Tier 2 general categories are the most likely to have settlement after 5 years (45%) compared with the ICT category where almost none have settlement.

Table 2: Journeys staring on the ‘Worker’ route in 2017 by leave status in 2022

Type of work	Journeys	Expired (%)	Valid leave (%)	Settlement (%)
Worker visas	76,473	59%	25%	16%
Intra-company Transfer	27,021	80%	20%	0%
Tier 2 General	14,746	30%	25%	45%
Minister of religion	261	36%	38%	25%
Sportspeople	102	79%	17%	4%
Worker dependants	34,343	56%	28%	16%
Temporary work	34,684	87%	12%	0%
Other work	16,241	69%	10%	11%

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01 and underlying datasets, Home Office

Notes:

1. Other work includes ‘investor, business development and talent’ visas and ‘other work visas and exemptions’

5. Family

Data in this section relate to those who initially entered the UK on a family visa either as main applicants or dependants.

How many people arrive in the UK on family visas?

There were 48,100 journeys started with a grant on the family route in 2022, 14% fewer than in 2019.

Of the journeys starting in 2022, 96% had a recorded arrival. This is lower than previous years – between 2016 and 2019, 99% of journeys had a recorded arrival – and may in part reflect the impact of the pandemic on travel.

People arriving on family visas tend to arrive more slowly than those on work and study routes. Before the pandemic, most of the family cohort arrived within 15 days of their visa start date compared to 7 days for study and 9 days for work. The median time to arrival increased to 19 days in 2020, 27 days in 2021 and 26 days in 2022. The slower time to arrival may explain the lower proportion of journeys with an arrival in 2022, as some of those granted family visas may still be due to arrive.

How long do people remain in the UK on family routes?

The majority of those who start their journey on the family route remain on the family route until either their leave expires, or they go on to get ILR. Of the 2017 ‘family cohort’ who had not got ILR, or expired leave 5 years later, 98% remained on the family route.

Of the 36,100 people whose journey started on a Family visa (hereafter referred to as the ‘family cohort’) in 2017, 88% still held valid or indefinite leave at the end of 2022 (5 years later):

• 44% remained on a Family visa
• 1% had switched to a different category of visa
• 43% had been granted indefinite leave to remain

Only 12% of the 2017 ‘family cohort’ had expired leave after 5 years reflecting the fact that most people coming on a family route intend to remain in the UK long-term.

For those arriving between 2008 and 2011, a little over 80% of those starting their journey on a family visa had ILR after 5 years (many within 3 years). Following changes to the Immigration Rules in 2012, which increased the eligibility period for settlement from 2 years to 5 years for those on the family route, the proportion getting settlement after 5 years fell from 81% for the 2011 cohort to 46% for the 2013 cohort. It has remained above 40% since (apart from for the 2015 cohort – many of whom became eligible for ILR during the COVID-19 pandemic and may have delayed applying for ILR).

Figure 12: Leave status after 5 years of people who started their journey on a family route between 2008 and 2017

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Note:

1. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

How many people on the family route get indefinite leave to remain?

Those who arrive on a family visa are more likely to go on to get settlement than those coming on work and study routes.

Of the 133,100 people granted settlement in 2022, 25% started their journey on a Family visa, the largest of any route (despite the family route typically accounting for just 10% of new journeys each year). Over 70% began their journeys in 2016 or 2017. This suggests many on the family route apply for settlement soon after they become eligible. Most (98%) of the ‘family cohort’ remain in the family category before getting settlement.

6. Asylum

Data in this section relates to those granted leave following an asylum application. An issue with underlying data systems means that many people granted refugee permission in 2017 have not had their settlement applications linked to their initial leave, as such, where other sections focus on the 2017 cohort this section focuses on the 2016 cohort.

Someone in the UK may claim asylum if they believe they face serious threat to their life or freedom in their home country. They are claiming to be recognised as a refugee under the Refugee Convention. This section includes analysis of those who have been granted leave following an asylum application (the leave may be ‘refugee permission’ or another form of leave). It does not consider those who were refused asylum or are still awaiting the outcome of their asylum application.

This section relates to people whose journey started on an asylum route. Some individuals may start their journey on another route (for example, as a student) and subsequently apply for asylum while in the UK. Such individuals will be included in the category relating to their initial leave and not included in this section (unless more than 12 months has elapsed between their initial leave expiring and the outcome of their asylum application). Around 14% of people claiming asylum in 2022 held another form of leave within 7 days of lodging their application.

How long do refugees remain in the UK?

Of the 13,600 people whose journey started when they were granted leave following an asylum application in 2016, 95% still held valid or indefinite leave at the end of 2022 (after 6 years), of which:

• 3% remained on an asylum route
• 2% switched to other routes (mainly Family)
• 90% had been granted indefinite leave to remain

‘Refugee permission’ is granted to people who have lodged an asylum claim and are recognised as refugees. The majority of people granted ‘refugee permission’ go on to get ILR. Of the 12,300 people whose journey began in 2016 once they were granted ‘refugee permission’ following an asylum application, 63% had already been granted ILR at the end of 2021, increasing to 96% at the end of 2022.

Some people who claim asylum may not meet the criteria of a refugee and will therefore, not be granted refugee status. In some instances, they may be granted another type of leave.

Of those granted discretionary leave in 2016 following an asylum application, 15% held ILR by the end of 2022, and 65% held valid limited leave. This was similar to those given ‘other grants’, where 18% had ILR and 61% had limited leave. The majority of those granted these types of leave are likely to eventually go on to get ILR. Around 89% of those given ‘other grants’ and 70% of those given discretionary leave had ILR after 11 years.

Of those granted UASC (Unaccompanied Asylum-Seeking Children) leave in 2016, only 1% held ILR by the end of 2022, with 60% continuing to hold valid limited leave. UASC leave has the highest proportion of asylum grants with expired leave (39% by 2022).

Figure 13: Leave status of people granted refugee permission following an asylum application between 2007 and 2016 at the end of each subsequent year

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Notes:

1. Categories less than 2% are not labelled on the chart.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

Figure 14: Leave status of people granted other leave following an asylum application between 2007 and 2016 at the end of each subsequent year

Source: Migrant Journey – Detailed Tables – MJ_D01, Home Office

Notes:

1. Categories less than 2% are not labelled on the chart.
2. Percentages may not sum to 100% due to rounding.

How many people on asylum routes get indefinite leave to remain?

Of the 133,000 people granted settlement in 2022, 9% started their journey on an asylum route, of which:

• 8% were initially granted refugee permission
• 1% were initially granted other leave

Most (92%) people that started their journey on an asylum route who were granted settlement in 2022, remained on an asylum route until getting ILR. A small number of people move from other routes into asylum before getting ILR. Of those granted settlement in 2022, 11% were on an asylum route immediately prior to settlement. Sevent-nine per cent of those started their journey on an asylum route, while 17% started on a student route. The remaining 4% were split between work, family and other routes.

7. About the data

This release looks at how migrants’ leave status changes as they journey through the UK’s immigration system. It includes data for European Economic Area (EEA) migrants and non-EEA migrants. As EEA migrants had freedom of movement prior to the UK leaving the EU, and were therefore not required to apply for a visa before coming to the UK, there are relatively few EEA nationals in the data before 2021. As this analysis looks at changes over time, most of the findings relate to non-EEA nationals.

The report includes 2 types of analysis:

1. Forward-look – this looks at migrants who were initially granted a visa in a given year and looks at their leave status in subsequent years. See table MJ_D01 for the underlying data.
2. Backward-look – this looks at migrants who were granted settlement in a given year and looks at the visa they initially used to come to the UK. See table MJ_D02 for the underlying data.

If an individual is granted new leave more than 12 months after their previous leave expired, a ‘new journey’ begins. The number of ‘new journeys’ in a year will be fewer than the number of visas granted because if a visa is granted within 12 months of previous leave expiring it will not be counted as a ‘new journey’.

The length of a ‘journey’ relates to the time in which an individual had valid leave to enter and remain in the UK. This is not the same as the amount of time an individual has been in the UK. An individual may leave the UK before their leave expires. Similarly some individuals may remain in the UK after their leave expires, either illegal (as an ‘overstayer’), or while awaiting the outcome of another application (for example an asylum application).

The report refers to people granted Indefinite leave to remain. This relates to individuals who have been granted settlement or British citizenship (either additionally or alternatively to settlement). Where the report talks about people granted settlement, it refers only to grants of settlement and does not include grants of citizenship though some of those granted settlement will have gone on to be granted citizenship at a later date.

Where does the data come from?

The data used in this report come from a range of Home Office systems. It uses data matching to bring together information on a person’s immigration records (such as an entry clearance visa, or an in-country extension of leave) and travel records (such as an arrival into, or departure from, the UK). This allows us to understand how people interact with the UK immigration system, and how their immigration status changes over time.

The systems used to produce this data are designed for operational purposes. Due to limitations in the data, they cannot be used to provide a definitive view of a person’s status at an individual level. They do provide a reasonable view at the aggregate level (see ‘What are the limitations of the data?’ for more details).

What are the limitations of the data?

Data input: As with all administrative data, there will be a small number of cases where data are missing or have been input incorrectly.

Data matching: Despite the system having a robust data matching process, it will not have a 100% match rate. There are several reasons why records relating to an individual may not be correctly matched. For example, dual nationals may use different documents for different interactions with HO systems – such records may not be matched to the same person. Conversely, 2 individuals with similar personal details may be incorrectly identified as the same person, for example, family members with similar names, nationalities and dates of birth (particularly twins).

Coverage gaps: The system does not have 100% coverage of people entering and leaving the UK. As there is no border control in the Common Travel Area (CTA) between the UK and Ireland, the system will not pick up travel through this route. This means that an individual could enter the UK from Ireland and not be counted as an arrival in the data, or leave the UK to Ireland and not be counted as a departure.

Although these limitations will impact the leave status assigned to each individual to a small extent, they will have a large impact on the analysis that draws upon travel information. Specifically:

• analysis on the proportion of people who have arrived on a visa in each year. These figures should be considered a minimum number of arrivals
• analysis on the number of people who departed before their leave expired. These figures should be considered a minimum number of departures

As a result, the data should not be used to give a definitive view on the number of people who did not use their visa, or the number of people who did not depart once their visa expired.

Other information

The ‘Migrant Journey: user guide’ provides further details on this topic including definitions used, how figures are compiled, data quality and issues arising from figures based on data sourced from an administrative database.

The trends seen in this release reflect changes in the levels of immigration over time as well as policy and legislative changes. Details of these can be found in ‘Policy and legislative changes affecting migration to the UK: timeline’ published alongside the Immigration system statistics quarterly release.

1. The Intra-company Transfer route enables multinational employers to transfer their existing employees from outside the EEA to their UK branch for training purposes or to fill a specific vacancy that cannot be filled by a British or EEA worker. The rules were changed from 6 April 2010, meaning that the Intra-company Transfer category no longer leads to settlement. ↩